Quantitative mathematical modeling of clinical brain metastasis dynamics in non-small cell lung cancer

Brain metastases (BMs) are associated with poor prognosis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but are only visible when large enough. Therapeutic decisions such as whole brain radiation therapy would benefit from patient-specific predictions of radiologically undetectable BMs. Here, we propose a mathematical modeling approach and use it to analyze clinical data of BM from NSCLC. Primary tumor growth was best described by a gompertzian model for the pre-diagnosis history, followed by a tumor growth inhibition model during treatment. Growth parameters were estimated only from the size at diagnosis and histology, but predicted plausible individual estimates of the tumor age (2.1–5.3 years). Multiple metastatic models were further assessed from fitting either literature data of BM probability (n = 183 patients) or longitudinal measurements of visible BMs in two patients. Among the tested models, the one featuring dormancy was best able to describe the data. It predicted latency phases of 4.4–5.7 months and onset of BMs 14–19 months before diagnosis. This quantitative model paves the way for a computational tool of potential help during therapeutic management.