Estimating 12-week death probability in patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer: the Colon Life nomogram

Background

Regorafenib and TAS-102 have recently demonstrated statistically significant survival gains in patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Life expectancy ≥12 weeks was an inclusion criterion in registrative trials, and the identification of proper clinical selection tools for the daily use of these drugs in heavily pre-treated patients is needed to improve the cost-benefit ratio. We aimed at building a nomogram able to predict death probability within 12 weeks from the date of assessment of refractory mCRC.

Patients and methods

Four hundred eleven refractory mCRC patients with ECOG performance status (PS) ≤2 receiving regorafenib, TAS-102 or other treatments were used as developing set. Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in a binary logistic model from which the nomogram was developed. The nomogram was externally validated and its performance was evaluated by examining calibration (how close predictions were to the actual outcome) and discriminative ability (Harrell C index) both on developing (internal validation) and validating (external validation) sets.

Results

Four variables were selected and included in the nomogram: PS (P < 0.0001), primary tumor resection (P = 0.027), LDH value (P = 0.0001) and peritoneal involvement (P = 0.081). In the developing set, the nomogram discriminative ability was high (C = 0.778), and was confirmed in the validating set (C = 0.778), where the overall outcome was better as a consequence of the enrichment in patients receiving regorafenib or TAS-102 (46% versus 34%; P < 0.0001).

Conclusions

Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict the probability of death within 12 weeks in patients with refractory mCRC. Based on four easy-to-collect variables, the 'Colon Life' nomogram and free app for smartphones may improve mCRC patients' selection for later-line therapies and assist researchers for the enrollment in clinical trials in this setting.

Chemotherapy toxicity and activity in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and germline BRCA1-2 pathogenic variants (gBRCA1-2pv): a multicenter survey

BACKGROUND

Germline BRCA1-2 pathogenic variants (gBRCA1-2pv)-related pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) showed increased sensitivity to DNA cross-linking agents. This study aimed at exploring safety profile, dose intensity, and activity of different chemotherapy regimens in this setting.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

gBRCA1-2pv PDAC patients of any age and clinical tumor stage who completed a first course of chemotherapy were eligible. A descriptive analysis of chemotherapy toxicity, dose intensity, response, and survival outcomes was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 85 gBRCA1-2pv PDAC patients treated in 21 Italian centers between December 2008 and March 2021were enrolled. Seventy-four patients were assessable for toxicity and dose intensity, 83 for outcome. Dose intensity was as follows: nab-paclitaxel 72%, gemcitabine 76% (AG); cisplatin 75%, nab-paclitaxel 73%, capecitabine 73%, and gemcitabine 65% (PAXG); fluorouracil 35%, irinotecan 58%, and oxaliplatin 64% (FOLFIRINOX). When compared with the literature, grade 3-4 neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and diarrhea were increased with PAXG, and unmodified with AG and FOLFIRINOX. RECIST responses were numerically higher with the three- (81%) or four-drug (73%) platinum-containing regimens that outperformed AG (41%) and oxaliplatin-based doublets (56%). Carbohydrate antigen 19.9 (CA19.9) reduction >89% at nadir was reported in two-third of metastatic patients treated with triplets and quadruplets, as opposed to 33% and 45% of patients receiving oxaliplatin-based doublets or AG, respectively. All patients receiving AG experienced disease progression, with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 6.4 months, while patients treated with platinum-containing triplets or quadruplets had an mPFS >10.8 months. Albeit still immature, data on overall survival seemed to parallel those on PFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data, as opposed to figures expected from the literature, highlighted that platinum-based regimens provoked an increased toxicity on proliferating cells, when dose intensity was maintained, or an as-expected toxicity, when dose intensity was reduced, while no change in toxicity and dose intensity was evident with AG. Furthermore, an apparently improved outcome of platinum-based triplets or quadruplets over other regimens was observed.

Long-term outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary cancer: The influence of the histological subtypes and comparison with the other periampullary neoplasms

BACKGROUND

Ampullary carcinoma (AC) is histologically classified as intestinal (In-AC), pancreaticobiliary (Pb-AC) or mixed-AC. The prognostic role of AC subtypes has been debated and remains unclear. The aims of this study were to evaluate outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) for each subtype of AC and to compare these with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC] and distal cholangiocarcinoma [DCC].

METHODS

PDs performed for AC between 2010 and 2018 were retrospectively evaluated. Histological subtype was obtained for all patients. One-year, 3-year and 5-year disease-free-survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were calculated. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare Pb-AC, In-AC and mixed-AC. Comparison with PDs performed for PDAC and DCC during the same period was also performed.

RESULTS

A total of 97 patients undergoing PD for AC were evaluated: 34 (35.1%) In-AC, 54 (55.7%) Pb-AC and 9 mixed-AC (9.3%). DFS and OS rates for Pb-AC were significantly lower compared to In-AC (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01), but similar to mixed-AC (p = 0.3 and p = 0.4). Adjuvant therapy was not associated with increased survival, regardless of the histological subtype (p > 0.05). During the same period, 337 and 53 PDs for PDAC and DCC, respectively, were performed. In-AC was associated with significantly better outcomes compared to PDAC and DCC (p < 0.001); DFS and OS rates for Pb-AC and mixed AC were significantly higher compared to PDAC (p < 0.001), but similar to DCC (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Pb-AC has significantly worse survival compared to In-AC. Moreover, mixed-AC should be considered as Pb-AC. Pb-AC and mixed-AC seem to have better prognosis compared to PDAC, but similar to DCC.

Guideline Application in Real world: multi-Institutional Based survey of Adjuvant and first-Line pancreatic Ductal adenocarcinoma treatment in Italy. Primary analysis of the GARIBALDI survey

BACKGROUND

Information about the adherence to scientific societies guidelines in the 'real-world' therapeutic management of oncological patients are lacking. This multicenter, prospective survey was aimed to improve the knowledge relative to 2017-2018 recommendations of the Italian Association of Medical Oncology (AIOM).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Treatment-naive adult patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were enrolled. Group A received adjuvant therapy, group B received primary chemotherapy, and group C had metastatic disease. The results on patients accrued until 31 October 2019 with a mature follow-up were presented.

RESULTS

Since July 2017, 833 eligible patients of 923 (90%) were enrolled in 44 Italian centers. The median age was 69 years (range 36-89 years; 24% >75 years); 48% were female; 93% had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) score of 0 or 1; group A: 16%, group B: 30%; group C: 54%; 72% Nord, 13% Center, 15% South. In group A, guidelines adherence was 68% [95% confidence interval (CI) 59% to 76%]; 53% of patients received gemcitabine and 15% gemcitabine + capecitabine; median CA19.9 was 29 (range 0-7300; not reported 15%); median survival was 36.4 months (95% CI 27.5-47.3 months). In group B, guidelines adherence was 96% (95% CI 92% to 98%); 55% of patients received nab-paclitaxel + gemcitabine, 27% FOLFIRINOX, 12% gemcitabine, and 3% clinical trial; median CA19.9 was 337 (range 0-20220; not reported 9%); median survival was 18.1 months (95% CI 15.6-19.9 months). In group C, guidelines adherence was 96% (95% CI 94% to 98%); 71% of patients received nab-paclitaxel + gemcitabine, 16% gemcitabine, 8% FOLFIRINOX, and 4% clinical trial; liver and lung metastases were reported in 76% and 23% of patients, respectively; median CA19.9 value was 760 (range 0-1374500; not reported 9%); median survival was 10.0 months (95% CI 9.1-11.1 months).

CONCLUSIONS

The GARIBALDI survey shows a very high rate of adherence to guidelines and survival outcome in line with the literature. CA19.9 testing should be enhanced; nutritional and psychological counseling represent an unmet need. Enrollment to assess adherence to updated AIOM guidelines is ongoing.

Pathologic tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy in resected pancreatic cancer: does it affect prognosis?

Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) + surgical resection for pancreatic cancer (PC) has gained consensus in recent years. Pathological response (PR) is generally assessed according to the College of American Pathologists grading system, ranging from 0 (complete response) to 3 (no response). The aim of our study is to evaluate the PR in a series of resections for PC after NAT and its prognostic implication. 112 patients undergone NAT and resection for PC between 2011 and 2020 were retrospectively evaluated. PR was 0/1, 2 and 3 in 18 (15%), 79 (61%) and 29 (24%) cases, respectively. Chemotherapy regimens different from FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine + nab-paclitaxel (OR 11.61 (2.53-53.36), p = 0.002) and lymphovascular invasion (OR 11.28 (1.89-67.23), p = 0.008) were associated to PR-3. Median follow-up was 25.8 (3.6-130.5) months. For PR-0/1, PR-2 and PR-3, median DFS was 45.8, 11.5, 4.6 months (p < 0.0001), respectively, while median OS was not reached, 27.1 and 17.5 months (p = 0.0006), respectively. At univariate analysis, PR-0/1 was significantly associated to better DFS and OS (HR 0.33 (0.17-0.67), p = 0.002; HR 0.20 (0.07-0.54), p = 0.002, respectively). At multivariate analysis, pancreaticoduodenectomy (HR 0.50 (0.30-0.84), p = 0.009), LNR (HR 27.14 (1.21-608.9), p = 0.038) and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.99 (1.06-3.76), p = 0.033) were independently associated to DFS; pre-treatment CA 19.9 value (HR 1.00 (1.00-1.00), p = 0.025), post-treatment resectability status (HR 0.51 (0.28-0.95), p = 0.035), pancreaticoduodenectomy (HR 0.56 (0.32-0.99), p = 0.050), severe morbidity (2.99 (1.22-7.55), p = 0.017), LNR (HR 56.8 (2.08-1548.3), p = 0.017), lymphovascular invasion (HR 2.18 (1.08-4.37), p = 0.029) were independently associated to OS. PR did not reach statistical significance at multivariate analysis. A favorable PR is observed only in a limited number of cases. The prognostic role of PR, despite being promising, remains unclear and further multicentric studies are needed.

Survival analysis of the non-metastatic cohort of the Italian Association for Medical Oncology (AIOM) Guideline Application in Real world: multi-Institutional Based survey of Adjuvant and first-Line pancreatic Ductal adenocarcinoma treatment in Italy (GARIBALDI)

BACKGROUND

Non-metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) presents a challenging scenario: the rarity of the disease, the limited number of completed prospective trials, and the shortcomings of comparability across series produce several controversial topics and unanswered questions. Guideline recommendations usually include all the different therapeutic options, de facto transferring to the multidisciplinary team the responsibility on the final decision. This secondary analysis of the GARIBALDI study was aimed to explore the correlation of center type, self-declared volume, and commitment with the overall survival (OS) in patients with non-metastatic PDAC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Treatment-naïve patients aged ≥18 years with a pathological diagnosis of non-metastatic PDAC, enrolled between July 2017 and October 2019, were analyzed. OS was defined as the time from treatment start to death. The impact of centers and clinical-demographic characteristics on OS was evaluated using Cox models.

RESULTS

Overall, 402 patients enrolled in 41 centers were eligible for this analysis. The median age was 68.4 years (range 35.6-88.8 years), 49.5% were females, 93.5% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 0-1, 16.7% had prior cancer history, and the median CA 19-9 level was 171.5 IU/ml (first-third quartile 24.5-937.5 IU/ml). For 79.8% of patients treatment started within 1 month from diagnosis. Thirty six point six percent of patients underwent upfront surgery and 91.8% of these received a subsequent adjuvant chemotherapy; 14.2% received chemotherapy followed by surgery and 49.3% chemotherapy without surgery. The preferred chemotherapy schemes were gemcitabine (54.8%) for adjuvant chemotherapy and nab-paclitaxel + gemcitabine (55.3%) for upfront chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 57.6 months and 300 patients died. A statistically significant shorter OS was observed in both low- [hazard ratio (HR) 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-2.32, P = 0.0099] and medium-commitment (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.10-2.23, P = 0.0120) compared to high-commitment institutions, when adjusting for clinically relevant covariates.

CONCLUSION

The GARIBALDI study suggests that the volume and the academic brand are not associated with OS in patients with non-metastatic PDAC, while center commitment warrants further exploration.