Modelling 5-year functional outcome in a major traumatic injury survivor cohort

AIM

To estimate associations between possible predictors of functional disability outcome at 5 years in a working adult population cohort of survivors of major traumatic injury and to develop a prognostic model of outcome.

DESIGN

Population based retrospective cohort study.

POPULATION

Persons who had experienced major traumatic injury (Injury Seventy Score >15) in the area of the former Yorkshire Regional Health Authority during the period 30 September 1988 to 1 October 1989 and who survived for 5 years (average 5.3 years).

METHODS

The same interviewer saw each survivor at their home and used the OPCS Adult Disability Schedule to ascertain levels of functional disability. Disability scores for each survivor were then combined in accordance with the OPCS guidance to calculate a level of disability between 0 (no disability) to 10 (maximum disability). The OPCS level was then dichotomised with a cut-point at 4/5. Possible predictor and confounding variables from pre-injury, injury and post-injury periods were modelled in a logistic regression to identify those that predicted outcome level. Two reduced models were developed to allow early prognosis of late outcome.

RESULTS

The full model correctly classified 91% of observed outcomes. Inpatient length of stay OR 1.031 (95% CI 1.014,1.048) per day predicted poorer 5-year outcome; Glasgow Coma Score OR 0.790(0.629,0.992) per 1 point increase; stay in Intensive Care Unit OR 0.931 (0.877,0.987) per day; attainment of degree-level education OR 0.014 (0.000,0.707); single civil status OR 0.110 (0.013,0.908); being taken initially to a hospital with a neurosurgical facility OR 0.064(0.010,0.420); being in paid work during the 2 weeks before index injury OR 0.093(0.009,0.969) predicted better 5-year disability outcome. Two reduced models were constructed that included a simple set of variables, one of these models excluded any rehabilitation variables but still correctly classified 85% of the observed outcomes.

CONCLUSION

As well as level of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and total inpatient stay, Pre-injury educational attainment and employment, civil status, immediate care in a hospital with a neurosurgical facility and stay in an Intensive Care Unit determined 5-year outcome. It is possible to efficiently predict outcome at an early stage. Previous work on predictors of disablement have suffered from large selection and attrition biases.

Inhibition of COX-2 with NS-398 decreases colon cancer cell motility through blocking epidermal growth factor receptor transactivation: possibilities for combination therapy

The use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs has proved of great interest in the prevention and treatment of colorectal cancer, although their precise mechanisms of action remain unclear. Overexpression of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and subsequent prostaglandin production promote metastasis and have been shown to increase cell motility in vitro.

OBJECTIVE

We have aimed to elucidate whether specific inhibition of COX-2 with NS-398 (NS-398 is a selective inhibitor of COX-2) would be able to inhibit motility of colorectal cancer cells and whether this was modulated through epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) transactivation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A transwell filter assay was used to study cell motility. Expression of COX-2, EGFR phosphorylation and prostaglandin E(2) (PGE(2)) receptors were assessed by Western blot analysis and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. PGE(2) concentrations after NS-398 treatment were estimated by enzyme immunoassay.

RESULTS

Treatment with NS-398 significantly reduced PGE(2) levels and reduced cell migration in the HT29 and HCA7 colorectal carcinoma cell lines and this effect was rescued by addition of PGE(2). Furthermore, specific inhibition of COX-2 with NS-398 reduced EGFR phosphorylation in colorectal cancer cells. Direct inhibition of EGFR activity with AG1478 reduced PGE(2)-stimulated motility, clearly demonstrating that PGE(2 )acts via the EGFR-signalling pathway. The novel combination of NS-398 and AG1478 dramatically reduced migration of colorectal cancer cells.

CONCLUSION

The data presented indicate that the use of NS-398 in chemoprevention and adjuvant therapy for colorectal cancer may work in part, through the inhibition of cell motility. Furthermore, our data suggest that the combined use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs with EGFR antagonists could be explored further for future use in the clinic.

Prospects in NSAID-derived chemoprevention of colorectal cancer

There is strong evidence for an important role for increased COX (cyclo-oxygenase)-2 expression and PG (prostaglandin) E2 production in colorectal tumorigenesis. PGE(2) acts through four E-prostanoid receptors (EP1-4). COX-2 has therefore become a target for the potential chemoprevention and therapy of colorectal cancer. However, any therapeutic/preventive strategy has the potential to have an impact on physiological processes and hence result in side effects. General COX (COX-1 and -2) inhibition by traditional NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), such as aspirin, although chemopreventive, has some side effects, as do some conventional COX-2-selective NSAIDs. As PGE2 is thought to be the major PG species responsible for promoting colorectal tumorigenesis, research is being directed to a number of protein targets downstream of COX-2 that might allow the selective inhibition of the tumour-promoting activities of PGE2, while minimizing the associated adverse events. The PGE synthases and E-prostanoid receptors (EP1-4) have therefore recently attracted considerable interest as potential novel targets for the prevention/therapy of colorectal cancer. Selective (and possibly combinatorial) inhibition of the synthesis and signalling of those PGs most highly associated with colorectal tumorigenesis may have some advantages over COX-2-selective inhibitors.

Variation in clinical decision making is a partial explanation for geographical variation in lower extremity amputation rates

BACKGROUND

Rates of lower extremity amputation vary significantly both between and within countries. The variation does not appear to support differences in need as an explanation. This study set out to see if variations in clinical decision making might contribute to the explanation.

METHODS

Based on an extensive audit database of lower extremity amputations and revascularization operations, a decision model was produced. Drawing on items in this model allowed the selection of six clinical cases that differed in their probability of having amputation as the outcome. Two cases had 80 per cent or more, two cases had 45--55 per cent and two cases had 20 per cent or less probability of amputation. Each of ten consultant vascular surgeons looked at these cases without knowledge of their probability of outcome and decided on amputation or revascularization.

RESULTS

Overall the chance-adjusted level of agreement (kappa coefficient) between the decisions made by ten surgeons on the six clinical cases and the actual outcome was 0.46, indicating a moderate level of agreement. The kappa coefficient for individual surgeons showed complete agreement (kappa = 1) for four, substantial agreement (kappa = 0.66) for four, fair agreement (kappa = 0.32) for one and no agreement other than at a chance level (kappa = 0) for one surgeon.

CONCLUSION

Variations in the clinical decisions made by vascular surgeons given the same patient are likely to explain at least a part of the observed geographical variation in rates of lower extremity amputation. Consensus guidelines may enable more consistent decision making for this problem.