Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Comparing febrile children presenting on and off antibiotics to the emergency department: a retrospective cohort study

Background

It is not yet known how antibiotics may affect Serious Bacterial Infections (SBI). Our aim is to describe the presentation, management, and serious bacterial infections (SBI) of febrile children on or off antibiotics.

Methods

Retrospective, cohort study of febrile Emergency Department patients, 0–36 months of age, at a single institution, between 2009and 2012.

Results

Seven hundred fifty-three patients were included: 584 in the No-Antibiotics group and 169 (22%) in the Antibiotics group. Age and abnormal lung sounds were predictors for being on antibiotics (OR 2.00 [95% CI 1.23–3.25] and OR 1.04 [95% CI 1.02–1.06] respectively) while female gender, and lower temperatures were negative predictors (OR 0.68 [95%0.47–0.98] and OR 0.47 [95% CI 0.32–0.67] respectively). Antibiotics were prescribed by a physician 89% of the time; the most common one being Amoxicillin/Clavulanic Acid (39%). The antibiotic group got more blood tests (57% vs 45%) and Chest X-Rays (37% vs 25%). Overall, the percent of SBIs (and pneumonias) was statistically the same in both groups (6.5% in the No-antibiotic group VS 3.6%).

Conclusions

Children presenting on antibiotics and off antibiotics were significantly different in their presentation and management, although the overall percentages of SBI were similar in each group. Further investigations into this subgroup of febrile children are needed.

Aberrant neutrophil trafficking and metabolic oscillations in severe pyoderma gangrenosum

Having previously associated metabolic oscillations with cell locomotion, we hypothesized that patients with abnormalities in neutrophil trafficking may display aberrant intracellular oscillations. A pyoderma gangrenosum patient exhibiting aberrant leukocyte trafficking in vivo and skin ulceration without infection was identified. This patient's neutrophils constitutively overexpressed and clustered the leukocyte integrins CR3 and CR4 and failed to display appropriate integrin-to-GPI receptor interactions. Increased levels of tyrosine phosphorylation were observed. NAD(P)H oscillations, which are sinusoidal in normals, were chaotic with multiple frequency components in this patient's neutrophils. Normal cell shape and sinusoidal NAD(P)H oscillations were restored by providing a pulsed electric field to drive metabolic oscillations and by temperature reduction. N-acetyl-D-glucosamine disrupted CR3 clusters and sinusoidal NAD(P)H oscillations returned. Anecdotal reports suggest that local hypothermia is clinically useful for this patient. These data define the first metabolic oscillation-associated disease and suggest that pyoderma gangrenosum can be classified as a dynamical disease at the cellular level.

Aberrant integrin (CR4; alpha(x)beta2; CD11c/CD18) oscillations on neutrophils in a mild form of pyoderma gangrenosum

We have previously shown that the beta2 integrins CR3 and CR4 physically and functionally interact with urokinase receptors (uPAR) on neutrophil plasma membranes in an oscillatory fashion. In this study we have analyzed neutrophils from patient SC, a 34 y old African American female, with aberrant skin window results and recurrent perianal abscesses and pretibial lesions diagnosed as pyoderma gangrenosum. Although untreated migrating normal neutrophils exhibited 20 s sinusoidal oscillations in CR4-uPAR proximity, neutrophils from SC demonstrated a faster oscillation (10 s) in the form of a flyback sawtooth wave. This waveform mimicked that observed for normal neutrophils treated with subsaturating doses of the kinase inhibitors staurosporine, genistein, and erbstatin. As beta2 integrins are regulated by phosphorylation, we tested the hypothesis that the aberrant CR4-uPAR proximity oscillations seen in SC's neutrophils are due to defective kinase activity that might be balanced by a decrease in phosphatase activity. When SC's cells are exposed to subsaturating concentrations of the phosphatase inhibitor pervanadate, this caused the CR4-uPAR oscillations to become sinusoidal in shape with a 20 s period, as seen in normal migrating neutrophils. Although SC's neutrophils were deficient in spontaneous and N-formyl-methionyl-leucyl-phenylalanine-induced polarization, 0.5 microM pervanadate returned cell polarization to nearly normal levels, thus paralleling the acquisition of normal receptor interactions. Inasmuch as SC's cellular phenotype is mimicked by kinase inhibitors and corrected by phosphatase inhibitors, we suggest that a mutation(s) affecting the kinetics of intracellular signaling enzymes, but not blocking the pathway per se, may be responsible for this clinical state.