FMD vaccine allocation and surveillance resourcing options for a potential Australian incursion

Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) epidemiological simulation modelling of potential foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in the state of Victoria, Australia examined the targeted use of limited vaccine supplies in combination with varying surveillance resources. Updated, detailed estimates of government response costs were prepared based on state level data inputs of required and available resources. Measures of outbreak spread such as duration and numbers of animals removed through depopulation of infected and vaccinated herds from the epidemiological modelling were compared to summed government response costs. This comparison illustrated the trade-offs between targeted control strategies combining vaccination-to-remove and varying surveillance capacities and their corresponding costs. For this intensive cattle and sheep producing region: (1) Targeting vaccination toward intensive production areas or toward specialized cattle operations had outbreak control and response cost advantages similar to vaccination of all species. The median duration was reduced by 27% and response costs by 11%. (2) Adding to the pool of outbreak surveillance resources available further decreased outbreak duration and outbreak response costs. The median duration was reduced by an additional 13% and response costs declined by an additional 8%. (3) Pooling of vaccine resources overcame the very early binding constraints under proportional allocation of vaccines to individual states with similar reductions in outbreak duration to those with additional surveillance resources. However, government costs rose substantially by over 40% and introduced additional risk of a negative consumer response. Increased knowledge of the outbreak situation obtained from more surveillance led to better-informed vaccination deployment decisions in the short timeframe they needed to be made.

Economic benefits of implementing trading zones for Australian livestock disease outbreaks of limited duration

Objective

The objective is to estimate the economic benefits of trading zones as part of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) control measures for limited duration outbreaks.

Design

The proposed trading zones for FMD at the state level are determined using multiple tools. Eleven individual incursion scenarios in six Australian states are simulated within the Australian Animal Disease Spread epidemiological model to identify the potential geographic extent of outbreaks, as well as the number of animals infected and the duration of outbreaks. The disease spread information is used to identify the boundaries of trading zones. The outbreak duration data are combined with historical export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that could be embargoed. The market impacts of the potential export embargoes including changes in equilibrium quantities, prices and revenue are simulated within the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture.

Results

Results emphasize the importance of jurisdictional and outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones. Should Australia effectively implement trading zones at the state level in response to small FMD outbreaks, the potential reductions of embargoed exports lead to a reduction in estimated producer revenue losses compared with losses under a national embargo. Producer revenue losses are reduced between $3 billion and $9 billion estimated in present value terms over 10 years at a 7% discount rate.

Conclusion

Economic analysis of the implications of trading zones identifies additional investments that would be of value to livestock industries.

Modelling farmer choices for water security measures in the Litani river basin in Lebanon

Lebanon is facing an increasing water supply deficit due to the increasing demand for freshwater, decreasing surface and groundwater resources and malfunctioning water governance structures. Technological and policy changes are needed to alleviate the impact of water scarcity and secure water in the future. This paper investigates farmers' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) in a choice experiment for a series of water saving measures at plot and irrigation district level, including more timely information of water delivery. These measures are expected to strengthen water security and use water more efficiently. Farmers are willing to pay higher water prices of $0.32/m³ and $0.22/m³ to support the implementation of water saving measures at plot level and the installation of water metering devices across the irrigation district, respectively. They are not willing to pay extra for obtaining information related to their water delivery earlier in time if this means that they will also have to pay earlier in the year for the water. Farmers with higher income and education levels who decide on their cropping pattern based on expected rainfall data are more interested in taking action than farmers whose cropping decisions are primarily based on last year's sales prices. The study shows that when aiming to design more effective sustainable water management strategies, accounting for farmers' needs and preferences, their age also has to be considered: younger farmers (<40 years) are on average more interested in and willing to pay more for new water saving measures than older farmers (>40 years).

Using treated wastewater to save wetlands impacted by climate change and pumping

Wetlands occur where the watertable which underlies much of Perth intersects the land surface. Regional groundwater levels have been falling since the 1970s as a result of lower rainfall and increased extraction causing a loss of environmental and social values. This paper examines a scheme to add almost 2 GL/yr of treated wastewater to infiltration galleries immediately down-gradient of Perry Lakes so that the wetlands may be restored. Modelling suggest that groundwater levels would be raised up-gradient of the galleries, increasing both lake levels and groundwater supplies in the vicinity. It is not envisaged that wastewater will enter the lakes. Adding treated wastewater to nearby trial galleries has shown that phosphorus, pathogens and organic carbon are greatly reduced within 5 to 50 m. Nitrogen levels are less reduced but are similar to those in the lakes and nearby aquifer. It is estimated that the wetlands add about $54 m to land prices near the lakes and would add more than $24M to the sale price of proposed nearby land if they contain water. If successful, the proposal could be a test case for the use of treated wastewater to create hydraulic barriers against salt water intrusion into coastal areas.