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Thye T, Vannberg FO, Wong SH, Owusu-Dabo E, Osei I, Gyapong J, Sirugo G, Sisay-Joof F, Enimil A, Chinbuah MA, Floyd S, Warndorff DK, Sichali L, Malema S, Crampin AC, Ngwira B, Teo YY, Small K, Rockett K, Kwiatkowski D, Fine PE, Hill PC, Newport M, Lienhardt C, Adegbola RA, Corrah T, Ziegler A, Morris AP, Meyer CG, Horstmann RD, Hill AV. Genome-wide association analyses identifies a susceptibility locus for tuberculosis on chromosome 18q11.2. Nat Genet 2010; 42:739-741. [PMID: 20694014 PMCID: PMC4975513 DOI: 10.1038/ng.639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 279] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2010] [Accepted: 07/08/2010] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
We combined two tuberculosis genome-wide association studies from Ghana and The Gambia with subsequent replication in a combined 11,425 individuals. rs4331426, located in a gene-poor region on chromosome 18q11.2, was associated with disease (combined P = 6.8 x 10(-9), odds ratio = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.13-1.27). Our study demonstrates that genome-wide association studies can identify new susceptibility loci for infectious diseases, even in African populations, in which levels of linkage disequilibrium are particularly low.
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Hayes RJ, Donnell D, Floyd S, Mandla N, Bwalya J, Sabapathy K, Yang B, Phiri M, Schaap A, Eshleman SH, Piwowar-Manning E, Kosloff B, James A, Skalland T, Wilson E, Emel L, Macleod D, Dunbar R, Simwinga M, Makola N, Bond V, Hoddinott G, Moore A, Griffith S, Deshmane Sista N, Vermund SH, El-Sadr W, Burns DN, Hargreaves JR, Hauck K, Fraser C, Shanaube K, Bock P, Beyers N, Ayles H, Fidler S. Effect of Universal Testing and Treatment on HIV Incidence - HPTN 071 (PopART). N Engl J Med 2019; 381:207-218. [PMID: 31314965 PMCID: PMC6587177 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa1814556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 240] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent. METHODS In the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomized trial conducted from 2013 through 2018, we randomly assigned 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to group A (combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy [ART]), group B (the prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines [universal since 2016]), or group C (standard care). The prevention intervention included home-based HIV testing delivered by community workers, who also supported linkage to HIV care and ART adherence. The primary outcome, HIV incidence between months 12 and 36, was measured in a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly sampled adults (18 to 44 years of age) per community. Viral suppression (<400 copies of HIV RNA per milliliter) was assessed in all HIV-positive participants at 24 months. RESULTS The population cohort included 48,301 participants. Baseline HIV prevalence was 21% or 22% in each group. Between months 12 and 36, a total of 553 new HIV infections were observed during 39,702 person-years (1.4 per 100 person-years; women, 1.7; men, 0.8). The adjusted rate ratio for group A as compared with group C was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 1.18; P = 0.51) and for group B as compared with group C was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.88; P = 0.006). The percentage of HIV-positive participants with viral suppression at 24 months was 71.9% in group A, 67.5% in group B, and 60.2% in group C. The estimated percentage of HIV-positive adults in the community who were receiving ART at 36 months was 81% in group A and 80% in group B. CONCLUSIONS A combination prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines resulted in a 30% lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care. The lack of effect with universal ART was unanticipated and not consistent with the data on viral suppression. In this trial setting, universal testing and treatment reduced the population-level incidence of HIV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 071 [PopArt] ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977.).
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Black GF, Weir RE, Floyd S, Bliss L, Warndorff DK, Crampin AC, Ngwira B, Sichali L, Nazareth B, Blackwell JM, Branson K, Chaguluka SD, Donovan L, Jarman E, King E, Fine PEM, Dockrell HM. BCG-induced increase in interferon-gamma response to mycobacterial antigens and efficacy of BCG vaccination in Malawi and the UK: two randomised controlled studies. Lancet 2002; 359:1393-401. [PMID: 11978337 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(02)08353-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 240] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The efficacy of BCG vaccines against pulmonary tuberculosis varies between populations, showing no protection in Malawi but 50-80% protection in the UK. To investigate the mechanism underlying these differences, randomised controlled studies were set up to measure vaccine-induced immune responsiveness to mycobacterial antigens in both populations. METHODS 483 adolescents and young adults in Malawi and 180 adolescents in the UK were tested for interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) response to M tuberculosis purified protein derivative (PPD) in a whole blood assay, and for delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) skin test response to tuberculin PPD, before and 1 year after receiving BCG (Glaxo 1077) vaccination or placebo or no vaccine. FINDINGS The percentages of the randomised individuals who showed IFN-gamma and DTH responses were higher in Malawi than in the UK pre-vaccination-ie, 61% (331/546) versus 22% (47/213) for IFN-gamma and 46% (236/517) versus 13% (27/211) for DTH. IFN-gamma responses increased more in the UK than in Malawi, with 83% (101/122) and 78% (251/321) respectively of the vaccinated groups responding, with similar distributions in the two populations 1 year post-vaccination. The DTH response increased following vaccination in both locations, but to a greater extent in the UK than Malawi. The IFN-gamma and DTH responses were strongly associated, except among vaccinees in Malawi. INTERPRETATION The magnitude of the BCG-attributable increase in IFN-gamma responsiveness to M tuberculosis PPD, from before to 1 year post-vaccination, correlates better with the known levels of protection induced by immunisation with BCG than does the absolute value of the IFN-gamma or DTH response after vaccination. It is likely that differential sensitisation due to exposure to environmental mycobacteria is the most important determinant of the observed differences in protection by BCG between populations.
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Floyd S, Choi KY, Taylor TW, Ray WH. Polymerization of olefins through heterogeneous catalysis. III. Polymer particle modelling with an analysis of intraparticle heat and mass transfer effects. J Appl Polym Sci 1986. [DOI: 10.1002/app.1986.070320108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 187] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Jahn A, Floyd S, Crampin AC, Mwaungulu F, Mvula H, Munthali F, McGrath N, Mwafilaso J, Mwinuka V, Mangongo B, Fine PEM, Zaba B, Glynn JR. Population-level effect of HIV on adult mortality and early evidence of reversal after introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Malawi. Lancet 2008; 371:1603-11. [PMID: 18468544 PMCID: PMC2387197 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(08)60693-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 182] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malawi, which has about 80,000 deaths from AIDS every year, made free antiretroviral therapy available to more than 80 000 patients between 2004 and 2006. We aimed to investigate mortality in a population before and after the introduction of free antiretroviral therapy, and therefore to assess the effects of such programmes on survival at the population level. METHODS We used a demographic surveillance system to measure mortality in a population of 32,000 in northern Malawi, from August, 2002, when free antiretroviral therapy was not available in the study district, until February, 2006, 8 months after a clinic opened. Causes of death were established through verbal autopsies (retrospective interviews). Patients who registered for antiretroviral therapy at the clinic were identified and linked to the population under surveillance. Trends in mortality were analysed by age, sex, cause of death, and zone of residence. FINDINGS Before antiretroviral therapy became available in June, 2005, mortality in adults (aged 15-59 years) was 9.8 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (95% CI 8.9-10.9). The probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 years was 43% (39-49) for men and 43% (38-47) for women; 229 of 352 deaths (65.1%) were attributed to AIDS. 8 months after the clinic that provided antiretroviral therapy opened, 107 adults from the study population had accessed treatment, out of an estimated 334 in need of treatment. Overall mortality in adults had decreased by 10% from 10.2 to 8.7 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (adjusted rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.70-1.14). Mortality was reduced by 35% (adjusted rate ratio 0.65, 0.46-0.92) in adults near the main road, where mortality before antiretroviral therapy was highest (from 13.2 to 8.5 deaths per 1000 person-years of observation before and after antiretroviral therapy). Mortality in adults aged 60 years or older did not change. INTERPRETATION Our findings of a reduction in mortality in adults aged between 15 and 59 years, with no change in those older than 60 years, suggests that deaths from AIDS were averted by the rapid scale-up of free antiretroviral therapy in rural Malawi, which led to a decline in adult mortality that was detectable at the population level.
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Hayes R, Ayles H, Beyers N, Sabapathy K, Floyd S, Shanaube K, Bock P, Griffith S, Moore A, Watson-Jones D, Fraser C, Vermund SH, Fidler S. HPTN 071 (PopART): rationale and design of a cluster-randomised trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment - a study protocol for a cluster randomised trial. Trials 2014; 15:57. [PMID: 24524229 PMCID: PMC3929317 DOI: 10.1186/1745-6215-15-57] [Citation(s) in RCA: 180] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2013] [Accepted: 02/03/2014] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Effective interventions to reduce HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa are urgently needed. Mathematical modelling and the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 trial results suggest that universal HIV testing combined with immediate antiretroviral treatment (ART) should substantially reduce incidence and may eliminate HIV as a public health problem. We describe the rationale and design of a trial to evaluate this hypothesis. METHODS/DESIGN A rigorously-designed trial of universal testing and treatment (UTT) interventions is needed because: i) it is unknown whether these interventions can be delivered to scale with adequate uptake; ii) there are many uncertainties in the models such that the population-level impact of these interventions is unknown; and ii) there are potential adverse effects including sexual risk disinhibition, HIV-related stigma, over-burdening of health systems, poor adherence, toxicity, and drug resistance.In the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial, 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population 1.2 m) will be randomly allocated to three arms. Arm A will receive the full PopART combination HIV prevention package including annual home-based HIV testing, promotion of medical male circumcision for HIV-negative men, and offer of immediate ART for those testing HIV-positive; Arm B will receive the full package except that ART initiation will follow current national guidelines; Arm C will receive standard of care. A Population Cohort of 2,500 adults will be randomly selected in each community and followed for 3 years to measure the primary outcome of HIV incidence. Based on model projections, the trial will be well-powered to detect predicted effects on HIV incidence and secondary outcomes. DISCUSSION Trial results, combined with modelling and cost data, will provide short-term and long-term estimates of cost-effectiveness of UTT interventions. Importantly, the three-arm design will enable assessment of how much could be achieved by optimal delivery of current policies and the costs and benefits of extending this to UTT. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01900977.
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Ayles H, Muyoyeta M, Du Toit E, Schaap A, Floyd S, Simwinga M, Shanaube K, Chishinga N, Bond V, Dunbar R, De Haas P, James A, Gey van Pittius NC, Claassens M, Fielding K, Fenty J, Sismanidis C, Hayes RJ, Beyers N, Godfrey-Faussett P. Effect of household and community interventions on the burden of tuberculosis in southern Africa: the ZAMSTAR community-randomised trial. Lancet 2013; 382:1183-94. [PMID: 23915882 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(13)61131-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 171] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Southern Africa has had an unprecedented increase in the burden of tuberculosis, driven by the HIV epidemic. The Zambia, South Africa Tuberculosis and AIDS Reduction (ZAMSTAR) trial examined two public health interventions that aimed to reduce the burden of tuberculosis by facilitating either rapid sputum diagnosis or integrating tuberculosis and HIV services within the community. METHODS ZAMSTAR was a community-randomised trial done in Zambia and the Western Cape province of South Africa. Two interventions, community-level enhanced tuberculosis case-finding (ECF) and household level tuberculosis-HIV care, were implemented between Aug 1, 2006, and July 31, 2009, and assessed in a 2×2 factorial design between Jan 9, 2010, and Dec 6, 2010. All communities had a strengthened tuberculosis-HIV programme implemented in participating health-care centres. 24 communities, selected according to population size and tuberculosis notification rate, were randomly allocated to one of four study groups using a randomisation schedule stratified by country and baseline prevalence of tuberculous infection: group 1 strengthened tuberculosis-HIV programme at the clinic alone; group 2, clinic plus ECF; group 3, clinic plus household intervention; and group 4, clinic plus ECF and household interventions. The primary outcome was the prevalence of culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in adults (≥18 years), defined as Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from one respiratory sample, measured 4 years after the start of interventions in a survey of 4000 randomly selected adults in each community in 2010. The secondary outcome was the incidence of tuberculous infection, measured using tuberculin skin testing in a cohort of schoolchildren, a median of 4 years after a baseline survey done before the start of interventions. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN36729271. FINDINGS Prevalence of tuberculosis was evaluated in 64,463 individuals randomly selected from the 24 communities; 894 individuals had active tuberculosis. Averaging over the 24 communities, the geometric mean of tuberculosis prevalence was 832 per 100,000 population. The adjusted prevalence ratio for the comparison of ECF versus non-ECF intervention groups was 1·09 (95% CI 0·86-1·40) and of household versus non-household intervention groups was 0·82 (0·64-1·04). The incidence of tuberculous infection was measured in a cohort of 8809 children, followed up for a median of 4 years; the adjusted rate ratio for ECF versus non-ECF groups was 1·36 (95% CI 0·59-3·14) and for household versus non-household groups was 0·45 (0·20-1·05). INTERPRETATION Although neither intervention led to a statistically significant reduction in tuberculosis, two independent indicators of burden provide some evidence of a reduction in tuberculosis among communities receiving the household intervention. By contrast the ECF intervention had no effect on either outcome. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Floyd S, Pawashe C, Sitti M. Two-Dimensional Contact and Noncontact Micromanipulation in Liquid Using an Untethered Mobile Magnetic Microrobot. IEEE T ROBOT 2009. [DOI: 10.1109/tro.2009.2028761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 128] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Floyd S, Heiskanen T, Taylor TW, Mann GE, Ray WH. Polymerization of olefins through heterogeneous catalysis. VI. Effect of particle heat and mass transfer on polymerization behavior and polymer properties. J Appl Polym Sci 1987. [DOI: 10.1002/app.1987.070330402] [Citation(s) in RCA: 121] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Wong SH, Gochhait S, Malhotra D, Pettersson FH, Teo YY, Khor CC, Rautanen A, Chapman SJ, Mills TC, Srivastava A, Rudko A, Freidin MB, Puzyrev VP, Ali S, Aggarwal S, Chopra R, Reddy BSN, Garg VK, Roy S, Meisner S, Hazra SK, Saha B, Floyd S, Keating BJ, Kim C, Fairfax BP, Knight JC, Hill PC, Adegbola RA, Hakonarson H, Fine PEM, Pitchappan RM, Bamezai RNK, Hill AVS, Vannberg FO. Leprosy and the adaptation of human toll-like receptor 1. PLoS Pathog 2010; 6:e1000979. [PMID: 20617178 PMCID: PMC2895660 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000979] [Citation(s) in RCA: 115] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2010] [Accepted: 06/02/2010] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by the obligate intracellular pathogen Mycobacterium leprae and remains endemic in many parts of the world. Despite several major studies on susceptibility to leprosy, few genomic loci have been replicated independently. We have conducted an association analysis of more than 1,500 individuals from different case-control and family studies, and observed consistent associations between genetic variants in both TLR1 and the HLA-DRB1/DQA1 regions with susceptibility to leprosy (TLR1 I602S, case-control P = 5.7×10−8, OR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.20–0.48, and HLA-DQA1 rs1071630, case-control P = 4.9×10−14, OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.35–0.54). The effect sizes of these associations suggest that TLR1 and HLA-DRB1/DQA1 are major susceptibility genes in susceptibility to leprosy. Further population differentiation analysis shows that the TLR1 locus is extremely differentiated. The protective dysfunctional 602S allele is rare in Africa but expands to become the dominant allele among individuals of European descent. This supports the hypothesis that this locus may be under selection from mycobacteria or other pathogens that are recognized by TLR1 and its co-receptors. These observations provide insight into the long standing host-pathogen relationship between human and mycobacteria and highlight the key role of the TLR pathway in infectious diseases. Mycobacterium leprae is an obligate intracellular pathogen that causes leprosy, a disease that shares a long history with the human population but which remains endemic in many parts of the world. Despite the fact that the genome of M. leprae has been sequenced, our understanding of its pathogenesis and interaction with the human host is limited, in part due to the inability to culture the bacterium in vitro. In this gene-centric microarray study, we have genotyped SNPs in over 2,000 genes and identified TLR1 and HLA-DRB1/DQA1 as major leprosy susceptibility genes. Studying the geographical distribution of this hypo-functional TLR1 variant demonstrated extreme population differentiation at this locus. These results suggest that leprosy may have contributed to the evolution of this genomic region, and provide insight into the long history of the host-pathogen relationship between humans and M. leprae.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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Khor CC, Vannberg FO, Chapman SJ, Guo H, Wong SH, Walley AJ, Vukcevic D, Rautanen A, Mills TC, Chang KC, Kam KM, Crampin AC, Ngwira B, Leung CC, Tam CM, Chan CY, Sung JJ, Yew WW, Toh KY, Tay SK, Kwiatkowski D, Lienhardt C, Hien TT, Day NP, Peshu N, Marsh K, Maitland K, Scott JA, Williams TN, Berkley JA, Floyd S, Tang NL, Fine PE, Goh DL, Hill AV. CISH and susceptibility to infectious diseases. N Engl J Med 2010; 362:2092-101. [PMID: 20484391 PMCID: PMC3646238 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa0905606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 110] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The interleukin-2-mediated immune response is critical for host defense against infectious pathogens. Cytokine-inducible SRC homology 2 (SH2) domain protein (CISH), a suppressor of cytokine signaling, controls interleukin-2 signaling. METHODS Using a case-control design, we tested for an association between CISH polymorphisms and susceptibility to major infectious diseases (bacteremia, tuberculosis, and severe malaria) in blood samples from 8402 persons in Gambia, Hong Kong, Kenya, Malawi, and Vietnam. We had previously tested 20 other immune-related genes in one or more of these sample collections. RESULTS We observed associations between variant alleles of multiple CISH polymorphisms and increased susceptibility to each infectious disease in each of the study populations. When all five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (at positions -639, -292, -163, +1320, and +3415 [all relative to CISH]) within the CISH-associated locus were considered together in a multiple-SNP score, we found an association between CISH genetic variants and susceptibility to bacteremia, malaria, and tuberculosis (P=3.8x10(-11) for all comparisons), with -292 accounting for most of the association signal (P=4.58x10(-7)). Peripheral-blood mononuclear cells obtained from adult subjects carrying the -292 variant, as compared with wild-type cells, showed a muted response to the stimulation of interleukin-2 production--that is, 25 to 40% less CISH expression. CONCLUSIONS Variants of CISH are associated with susceptibility to diseases caused by diverse infectious pathogens, suggesting that negative regulators of cytokine signaling have a role in immunity against various infectious diseases. The overall risk of one of these infectious diseases was increased by at least 18% among persons carrying the variant CISH alleles.
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Floyd S, Choi KY, Taylor TW, Ray WH. Polymerization of olefines through heterogeneous catalysis IV. Modeling of heat and mass transfer resistance in the polymer particle boundary layer. J Appl Polym Sci 1986. [DOI: 10.1002/app.1986.070310724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Crampin AC, Dube A, Mboma S, Price A, Chihana M, Jahn A, Baschieri A, Molesworth A, Mwaiyeghele E, Branson K, Floyd S, McGrath N, Fine PEM, French N, Glynn JR, Zaba B. Profile: the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Int J Epidemiol 2012; 41:676-85. [PMID: 22729235 PMCID: PMC3396313 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dys088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Karonga HDSS) in northern Malawi currently has a population of more than 35 000 individuals under continuous demographic surveillance since completion of a baseline census (2002–2004). The surveillance system collects data on vital events and migration for individuals and for households. It also provides data on cause-specific mortality obtained by verbal autopsy for all age groups, and estimates rates of disease for specific presentations via linkage to clinical facility data. The Karonga HDSS provides a structure for surveys of socio-economic status, HIV sero-prevalence and incidence, sexual behaviour, fertility intentions and a sampling frame for other studies, as well as evaluating the impact of interventions, such as antiretroviral therapy and vaccination programmes. Uniquely, it relies on a network of village informants to report vital events and household moves, and furthermore is linked to an archive of biological samples and data from population surveys and other studies dating back three decades.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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Birdthistle IJ, Floyd S, Machingura A, Mudziwapasi N, Gregson S, Glynn JR. From affected to infected? Orphanhood and HIV risk among female adolescents in urban Zimbabwe. AIDS 2008; 22:759-66. [PMID: 18356606 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0b013e3282f4cac7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 96] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the 15 million children orphaned by AIDS, and fears of sexual vulnerability, little is known about the link between orphanhood and HIV risk. METHODS A random sample of 1283 15 to 19-year-old girls in a high-density suburb of Harare was identified in a cross-sectional survey in 2004. A total of 863 agreed to be interviewed and 839 provided a specimen for HIV and herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) testing. Sexual health outcomes, sexual behaviours and marriage were assessed by type and timing of orphanhood. RESULTS Half of the participants were single or double orphans. Prevalence of HIV and/or HSV-2 was higher among orphans than non-orphans [17 versus 12%; age-adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-2.3]. Associations with orphan status were only significant among the 743 never-married participants. In comparison with non-orphaned peers, increased sexual risk (defined as HSV2-positive, HIV-positive or ever pregnant) was seen among maternal orphans (aOR = 3.6; 95% CI, 1.7-7.8), double orphans (aOR = 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.9), and girls who lost their father before age 12 (aOR = 2.1; 95% CI, 0.9-4.8) but not later (aOR = 0.8; 95% CI, 0.3-2.2). Maternal and double orphans were most likely to initiate sex early and to have had multiple partners. Maternal orphans were least likely to have used a condom at first sex, and to have a regular sexual partner. Experience of forced sex was high in all groups. CONCLUSIONS In urban Zimbabwe, female adolescent orphans are at increased risk of HIV and HSV-2 infection. Infection rates vary by type and age of orphanhood, and marital status, and are associated with high-risk sexual behaviours.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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Lalor MK, Ben-Smith A, Gorak-Stolinska P, Weir RE, Floyd S, Blitz R, Mvula H, Newport MJ, Branson K, McGrath N, Crampin AC, Fine PEM, Dockrell HM. Population differences in immune responses to Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination in infancy. J Infect Dis 2009; 199:795-800. [PMID: 19434928 DOI: 10.1086/597069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination induces a marked increase in the interferon (IFN)-gamma response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative (Mtb PPD) in UK adolescents, but not in Malawian adolescents. We hypothesized that Mtb PPD-induced IFN-gamma after BCG vaccination would be similar in infants from these 2 countries. Infants were vaccinated with BCG during the first 3-13 weeks of life. Three months after BCG vaccination, 51 (100%) of 51 UK infants had an IFN-gamma response to Mtb PPD, compared to 41 (53%) of 78 of Malawian infants, in whom responses varied according to their season of birth. We conclude that population differences in immune responses after BCG vaccination are observed among infants, as well as among young adults.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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Black GF, Dockrell HM, Crampin AC, Floyd S, Weir RE, Bliss L, Sichali L, Mwaungulu L, Kanyongoloka H, Ngwira B, Warndorff DK, Fine PE. Patterns and implications of naturally acquired immune responses to environmental and tuberculous mycobacterial antigens in northern Malawi. J Infect Dis 2001; 184:322-9. [PMID: 11443558 DOI: 10.1086/322042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2000] [Revised: 04/19/2001] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Interferon (IFN)-gamma responsiveness to 12 purified protein derivative (PPD) and new tuberculin antigens from 9 species of mycobacteria was assessed, using a whole blood assay, in 616 young adults living in northern Malawi, where Mycobacterium bovis bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination provides no protection against pulmonary tuberculosis. The prevalence of IFN-gamma responsiveness was highest for PPDs of M. avium, M. intracellulare, and M. scrofulaceum (the MAIS complex). Correlations between responsiveness paralleled genetic relatedness of the mycobacterial species. A randomized, controlled trial was carried out, to assess the increase in IFN-gamma responsiveness to M. tuberculosis PPD that can be attributed to M. bovis BCG vaccination. The BCG-attributable increase in IFN-gamma response to M. tuberculosis PPD was greater for individuals with low initial responsiveness to MAIS antigens than for those with high initial responsiveness. Although not statistically significant, the trend is consistent with the hypothesis that prior exposure to environmental mycobacteria interferes with immune responses to BCG vaccination.
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Clinical Trial |
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91 |
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Cori A, Ayles H, Beyers N, Schaap A, Floyd S, Sabapathy K, Eaton JW, Hauck K, Smith P, Griffith S, Moore A, Donnell D, Vermund SH, Fidler S, Hayes R, Fraser C. HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model. PLoS One 2014; 9:e84511. [PMID: 24454728 PMCID: PMC3893126 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0084511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 87] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2013] [Accepted: 11/20/2013] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence. Methods and Findings The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is a three-arm cluster-randomized trial of 21 large population clusters in Zambia and South Africa, starting in 2013. A combination prevention package including home-based voluntary testing and counseling, and ART for HIV positive individuals, will be delivered in arms A and B, with ART offered universally in arm A and according to national guidelines in arm B. Arm C will be the control arm. The primary endpoint is the cumulative three-year HIV incidence. We developed a mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by recent data on HIV-1 natural history. We focused on realistically modeling the intervention package. Parameters were calibrated to data previously collected in these communities and national surveillance data. We predict that, if targets are reached, HIV incidence over three years will drop by >60% in arm A and >25% in arm B, relative to arm C. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted reduction in incidence justifies the need for a trial. The main drivers of this uncertainty are possible community-level behavioral changes associated with the intervention, uptake of testing and treatment, as well as ART retention and adherence. Conclusions The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial intervention could reduce HIV population-level incidence by >60% over three years. This intervention could serve as a paradigm for national or supra-national implementation. Our analysis highlights the role mathematical modeling can play in trial development and monitoring, and more widely in evaluating the impact of treatment as prevention.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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Dacombe RJ, Crampin AC, Floyd S, Randall A, Ndhlovu R, Bickle Q, Fine PEM. Time delays between patient and laboratory selectively affect accuracy of helminth diagnosis. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2006; 101:140-5. [PMID: 16824566 DOI: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2006.04.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2006] [Revised: 04/07/2006] [Accepted: 04/13/2006] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Studies of intestinal helminth infections are influenced by the constraints of sample collection, as identification of helminth ova in stools is affected by the time since evacuation from the host. Different methods may be required to optimise diagnostic sensitivity under different study conditions. In the context of studies in rural Malawi, we collected stool samples with different time delays from production by subjects to sample collection by field staff, to examination in the laboratory. Stools were processed by Kato-Katz (KK) or formol-ether concentration (FEC) methods. Hookworm and Schistosoma mansoni were the most common helminths identified. The prevalence of hookworm was higher with KK (270/988, 27%) than with FEC (191/988, 19%). Comparison was made between the results from the two methods according to the timing of the processing steps. Delays in processing did not affect retrieval of S. mansoni. A decrease in sensitivity of almost 50% for detection of hookworm was observed with either method when preservation/refrigeration was delayed by more than 3h. A delay of 1 day from refrigeration or preservation to laboratory processing also reduced the sensitivity for hookworm by 50% for both methods. Care must be taken in studies of multiple helminth infections owing to the selective reduction of hookworm ova during transport. This is particularly critical when samples are not preserved, even over short periods of time, and even with formalin preservation.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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86 |
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Vannberg FO, Chapman SJ, Khor CC, Tosh K, Floyd S, Jackson-Sillah D, Crampin A, Sichali L, Bah B, Gustafson P, Aaby P, McAdam KPWJ, Bah-Sow O, Lienhardt C, Sirugo G, Fine P, Hill AVS. CD209 genetic polymorphism and tuberculosis disease. PLoS One 2008; 3:e1388. [PMID: 18167547 PMCID: PMC2148105 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2007] [Accepted: 10/31/2007] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Tuberculosis causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. DC-SIGN, encoded by CD209, is a receptor capable of binding and internalizing Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Previous studies have reported that the CD209 promoter single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-336A/G exerts an effect on CD209 expression and is associated with human susceptibility to dengue, HIV-1 and tuberculosis in humans. The present study investigates the role of the CD209 -336A/G variant in susceptibility to tuberculosis in a large sample of individuals from sub-Saharan Africa. Methods and Findings A total of 2,176 individuals enrolled in tuberculosis case-control studies from four sub-Saharan Africa countries were genotyped for the CD209 -336A/G SNP (rs4804803). Significant overall protection against pulmonary tuberculosis was observed with the -336G allele when the study groups were combined (n = 914 controls vs. 1262 cases, Mantel-Haenszel 2x2 χ2 = 7.47, P = 0.006, odds ratio = 0.86, 95%CI 0.77–0.96). In addition, the patients with -336GG were associated with a decreased risk of cavitory tuberculosis, a severe form of tuberculosis disease (n = 557, Pearson's 2×2 χ2 = 17.34, P = 0.00003, odds ratio = 0.42, 95%CI 0.27–0.65). This direction of association is opposite to a previously observed result in a smaller study of susceptibility to tuberculosis in a South African Coloured population, but entirely in keeping with the previously observed protective effect of the -336G allele. Conclusion This study finds that the CD209 -336G variant allele is associated with significant protection against tuberculosis in individuals from sub-Saharan Africa and, furthermore, cases with -336GG were significantly less likely to develop tuberculosis-induced lung cavitation. Previous in vitro work demonstrated that the promoter variant -336G allele causes down-regulation of CD209 mRNA expression. Our present work suggests that decreased levels of the DC-SIGN receptor may therefore be protective against both clinical tuberculosis in general and cavitory tuberculosis disease in particular. This is consistent with evidence that Mycobacteria can utilize DC-SIGN binding to suppress the protective pro-inflammatory immune response.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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86 |
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Hayes R, Floyd S, Schaap A, Shanaube K, Bock P, Sabapathy K, Griffith S, Donnell D, Piwowar-Manning E, El-Sadr W, Beyers N, Ayles H, Fidler S. A universal testing and treatment intervention to improve HIV control: One-year results from intervention communities in Zambia in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial. PLoS Med 2017; 14:e1002292. [PMID: 28464041 PMCID: PMC5412988 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2016] [Accepted: 03/27/2017] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets require that, by 2020, 90% of those living with HIV know their status, 90% of known HIV-positive individuals receive sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of individuals on ART have durable viral suppression. The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is measuring the impact of a universal testing and treatment intervention on population-level HIV incidence in 21 urban communities in Zambia and South Africa. We report observational data from four communities in Zambia to assess progress towards the UNAIDS targets after 1 y of the PopART intervention. METHODS AND FINDINGS The PopART intervention comprises annual rounds of home-based HIV testing delivered by community HIV-care providers (CHiPs) who also support linkage to care, ART retention, and other services. Data from four communities in Zambia receiving the full intervention (including immediate ART for all individuals with HIV) were used to determine proportions of participants who knew their HIV status after the CHiP visit; proportions linking to care and initiating ART following referral; and overall proportions of HIV-infected individuals who knew their status (first 90 target) and the proportion of these on ART (second 90 target), pre- and post-intervention. We are not able to assess progress towards the third 90 target at this stage of the study. Overall, 121,130 adults (59,283 men and 61,847 women) were enumerated in 46,714 households during the first annual round (December 2013 to June 2015). Of the 45,399 (77%) men and 55,703 (90%) women consenting to the intervention, 80% of men and 85% of women knew their HIV status after the CHiP visit. Of 6,197 HIV-positive adults referred by CHiPs, 42% (95% CI: 40%-43%) initiated ART within 6 mo and 53% (95% CI: 52%-55%) within 12 mo. In the entire population, the estimated proportion of HIV-positive adults who knew their status increased from 52% to 78% for men and from 56% to 87% for women. The estimated proportion of known HIV-positive individuals on ART increased overall from 54% after the CHiP visit to 74% by the end of the round for men and from 53% to 73% for women. The estimated overall proportion of HIV-positive adults on ART, irrespective of whether they knew their status, increased from 44% to 61%, compared with the 81% target (the product of the first two 90 targets). Coverage was lower among young men and women than in older age groups. The main limitation of the study was the need for assumptions concerning knowledge of HIV status and ART coverage among adults not consenting to the intervention or HIV testing, although our conclusions were robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS In this analysis, acceptance of HIV testing among those consenting to the intervention was high, although linkage to care and ART initiation took longer than expected. Knowledge of HIV-positive status increased steeply after 1 y, almost attaining the first 90 target in women and approaching it in men. The second 90 target was more challenging, with approximately three-quarters of known HIV-positive individuals on ART by the end of the annual round. Achieving higher test uptake in men and more rapid linkage to care will be key objectives during the second annual round of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01900977.
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Randomized Controlled Trial |
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Zaba B, Whitworth J, Marston M, Nakiyingi J, Ruberantwari A, Urassa M, Issingo R, Mwaluko G, Floyd S, Nyondo A, Crampin A. HIV and mortality of mothers and children: evidence from cohort studies in Uganda, Tanzania, and Malawi. Epidemiology 2005; 16:275-80. [PMID: 15824540 DOI: 10.1097/01.ede.0000155507.47884.43] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The steady decline in child mortality observed in most African countries through the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s has stalled in many countries in the 1990s because of the AIDS epidemic. However, the census and household survey data that generally are used to produce estimates of child mortality do not permit precise measures of the adverse effect of HIV on child mortality. METHODS To calculate excess risks of child mortality as the result of maternal HIV status, we used pooled data from 3 longitudinal community-based studies that classified births by the mother's HIV status. We also estimated excess risks of child death caused by increased mortality among mothers. The joint effects of maternal HIV status and maternal survival were quantified using multivariate techniques in a survival analysis. RESULTS Our analysis shows that the excess risk of death associated with having an HIV-positive mother is 2.9 (95% confidence interval = 2.3-3.6), and this effect lasts throughout childhood. The excess risk associated with a maternal death is 3.9 (2.8-5.5) in the 2-year period centered on the mother's death, with children of both infected and uninfected mothers experiencing higher mortality risks at this time. CONCLUSION HIV impacts on child mortality directly through transmission of the virus to newborns by infected mothers and indirectly through higher child mortality rates associated with a maternal death.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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85 |
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Havlir D, Lockman S, Ayles H, Larmarange J, Chamie G, Gaolathe T, Iwuji C, Fidler S, Kamya M, Floyd S, Moore J, Hayes R, Petersen M, Dabis F. What do the Universal Test and Treat trials tell us about the path to HIV epidemic control? J Int AIDS Soc 2020; 23:e25455. [PMID: 32091179 PMCID: PMC7038879 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Achieving HIV epidemic control globally will require new strategies to accelerate reductions in HIV incidence and mortality. Universal test and treat (UTT) was evaluated in four randomized population-based trials (BCPP/Ya Tsie, HPTN 071/PopART, SEARCH, ANRS 12249/TasP) conducted in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) during expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART) eligibility by World Health Organization guidelines and the UNAIDS 90-90-90 campaign. DISCUSSION These three-year studies were conducted in Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Kenya and South Africa in settings with baseline HIV prevalence from 4% to 30%. Key observations across studies were: (1) Universal testing (implemented via a variety of home and community-based testing approaches) achieved >90% coverage in all studies. (2) When coupled with robust linkage to HIV care, rapid ART start and patient-centred care, UTT achieved among the highest reported population levels of viral suppression in SSA. Significant gains in population-level viral suppression were made in regions with both low and high baseline population viral load; however, viral suppression gains were not uniform across all sub-populations and were lower among youth. (3) UTT resulted in marked reductions in community HIV incidence when universal testing and robust linkage were present. However, HIV elimination targets were not reached. In BCPP and HPTN 071, annualized HIV incidence was approximately 20% to 30% lower in the intervention (which included universal testing) compared to control arms (no universal testing). In SEARCH (where both arms had universal testing), incidence declined 32% over three years. (4) UTT reduced HIV associated mortality by 23% in the intervention versus control communities in SEARCH, a study in which mortality was comprehensively measured. CONCLUSIONS These trials provide strong evidence that UTT inclusive of universal testing increases population-level viral suppression and decreases HIV incidence and mortality faster than the status quo in SSA and should be adapted at a sub-country level as a public health strategy. However, more is needed, including integration of new prevention interventions into UTT, in order to reach UNAIDS HIV elimination targets.
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Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural |
5 |
85 |
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Abstract
Recent studies have shown that a variety of proteins participate with clathrin and clathrin adaptors in receptor-mediated endocytosis. The genes encoding some of these proteins are targets of chromosomal rearrangements in human haematopoietic malignancies. In addition, abnormal expression or mutation of some endocytosis proteins has been reported in human cancers. This article discusses these observations and elaborates the potential mechanisms by which the abnormal expression of endocytosis proteins might participate in the biology of cancer.
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Review |
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Lalor MK, Floyd S, Gorak-Stolinska P, Ben-Smith A, Weir RE, Smith SG, Newport MJ, Blitz R, Mvula H, Branson K, McGrath N, Crampin AC, Fine PE, Dockrell HM. BCG vaccination induces different cytokine profiles following infant BCG vaccination in the UK and Malawi. J Infect Dis 2011; 204:1075-85. [PMID: 21881123 PMCID: PMC3164434 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jir515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background. BCG vaccination of infants is thought to provide good protection in all settings. This study investigated whether Malawian infants made weaker responses across a cytokine panel after BCG vaccination, compared with UK infants. Methods. Diluted whole-blood samples were cultured with Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative for 6 days from BCG-vaccinated infants 3 months (n = 40 Malawi, 28 UK) and 12 months (n = 34 Malawi, 26 UK) after vaccination, and also from UK unvaccinated infants (n = 9 at 3 months, n = 10 at 12 months). Forty-two cytokines were measured in supernatants using a multiplex bead array assay. Principal component analysis was used to summarize the overall patterns in cytokine responses. Results. We found differences in median responses in 27 of the 42 cytokines: 7 higher in the UK and 20 higher in Malawi. The cytokines with higher responses in the UK were all T helper 1 related. The cytokines with higher responses in Malawi included innate proinflammatory cytokines, regulatory cytokines, interleukin 17, T helper 2 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors. Principal component analysis separated the BCG-vaccinated infants from Malawi from the UK vaccinated infants and from the unvaccinated infants. Conclusions. Malawian infants make cytokine responses following BCG vaccination, but the cytokine profile is different from that in the UK. The different biosignatures following BCG vaccination in the 2 settings may indicate variability in the protective efficacy of infant BCG vaccination.
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
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81 |
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Crampin AC, Floyd S, Glynn JR, Madise N, Nyondo A, Khondowe MM, Njoka CL, Kanyongoloka H, Ngwira B, Zaba B, Fine PE. The long-term impact of HIV and orphanhood on the mortality and physical well-being of children in rural Malawi. AIDS 2003; 17:389-97. [PMID: 12556693 DOI: 10.1097/00002030-200302140-00013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the influence of maternal HIV status and orphanhood on child mortality and physical well-being. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study with > 10 years of follow-up. METHODS From population-based surveys in Karonga District, Malawi in the 1980s, 197 individuals were identified as HIV-positive. These individuals and 396 HIV-negative individuals matched for age and sex, and their spouses and offspring, were sought in 1998-2000. RESULTS All but 11 of the index individuals were traced, identifying 2520 offspring; of these, 1106 offspring were included in analyses. Among those with HIV-positive mothers, mortality was 27% [95% confidence interval (CI), 17-38] in infants (1-30 days), 46% (95% CI, 34-58) in those under 5 years and 49% (95% CI, 38-61) in those under 10 years. The corresponding figures for those with HIV-negative mothers were 11% (95% CI, 8-13), 16% (95% CI, 13-19) and 17% (95% CI, 14-20). Death of HIV-positive mothers, but not of HIV-negative mothers or of fathers, was associated with increased child mortality. Among survivors who were still resident in the district, neither maternal HIV status nor orphanhood was associated with stunting, being wasted, or reported ill-health. CONCLUSIONS Mortality in children under 5 years is much higher in children born to HIV-positive mothers than in those born to HIV-negative mothers. With 10% of pregnant women HIV-positive, we estimate that approximately 18% of under-5 deaths in this population are attributable to HIV. Most of the excess is attributable to vertical transmission of HIV. Our findings suggest that, in terms of physical well-being, the extended family in this society has not discriminated against surviving children whose parents have been ill or have died as a result of HIV/AIDS.
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