Development and validation of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score

BACKGROUND

Health services have failed to respond to the pressures of multimorbidity. Improved measures of multimorbidity are needed for conducting research, planning services and allocating resources.

METHODS

We modelled the association between 37 morbidities and 3 key outcomes (primary care consultations, unplanned hospital admission, death) at 1 and 5 years. We extracted development (n = 300 000) and validation (n = 150 000) samples from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We constructed a general-outcome multimorbidity score by averaging the standardized weights of the separate outcome scores. We compared performance with the Charlson Comorbidity Index.

RESULTS

Models that included all 37 conditions were acceptable predictors of general practitioner consultations (C-index 0.732, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.731-0.734), unplanned hospital admission (C-index 0.742, 95% CI 0.737-0.747) and death at 1 year (C-index 0.912, 95% CI 0.905-0.918). Models reduced to the 20 conditions with the greatest combined prevalence/weight showed similar predictive ability (C-indices 0.727, 95% CI 0.725-0.728; 0.738, 95% CI 0.732-0.743; and 0.910, 95% CI 0.904-0.917, respectively). They also predicted 5-year outcomes similarly for consultations and death (C-indices 0.735, 95% CI 0.734-0.736, and 0.889, 95% CI 0.885-0.892, respectively) but performed less well for admissions (C-index 0.708, 95% CI 0.705-0.712). The performance of the general-outcome score was similar to that of the outcome-specific models. These models performed significantly better than those based on the Charlson Comorbidity Index for consultations (C-index 0.691, 95% CI 0.690-0.693) and admissions (C-index 0.703, 95% CI 0.697-0.709) and similarly for mortality (C-index 0.907, 95% CI 0.900-0.914).

INTERPRETATION

The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score is robust and can be either tailored or not tailored to specific health outcomes. It will be valuable to those planning clinical services, policymakers allocating resources and researchers seeking to account for the effect of multimorbidity.

Associations between general practice characteristics with use of urgent referrals for suspected cancer and endoscopies: a cross-sectional ecological study

BACKGROUND

Large variation in measures of diagnostic activity has been described previously between English general practices, but related predictors remain understudied.

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations between general practice population and characteristics, with the use of urgent referrals for suspected cancer, and use of endoscopy.

METHODS

Cross-sectional observational study of English general practices. We examined practice-level use (/1000 patients/year) of urgent referrals for suspected cancer, gastroscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy. We used mixed-effects Poisson regression to examine associations with the sociodemographic profile of practice populations and other practice attributes, including the average age, sex and country of qualification of practice doctors.

RESULTS

The sociodemographic characteristics of registered patients explained much of the between-practice variance in use of urgent referrals (32%) and endoscopic investigations (18-25%), all being higher in practices with older and more socioeconomically deprived patients. Practice-level attributes explained a substantial amount of between-practice variance in urgent referral (19%) but little of the variance in endoscopy (3%-4%). Adjusted urgent referral rates were higher in training practices and those with younger GPs. Practices with mean doctor ages of 41 and 57 years (at the 10th/90th centiles of the national distribution) would have urgent referral rates of 24.1 and 19.1/1000 registered patients, P < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Most between-practice variation in use of urgent referrals and endoscopies seems to reflect health need. Some practice characteristics, such as the mean age of GPs, are associated with appreciable variation in use of urgent referrals, though these associations do not seem strong enough to justify targeted interventions.

Associations between diagnostic pathways and care experience in colorectal cancer: evidence from patient-reported data

OBJECTIVE

To examine how different pathways to diagnosis of colorectal cancer may be associated with the experience of subsequent care.

DESIGN

Patient survey linked to information on diagnostic route.English patients with colorectal cancer (analysis sample n=6837) who responded to a patient survey soon after their hospital treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Odds Ratios and adjusted proportions of negative evaluation of key aspects of care for colorectal cancer, including the experience of shared decision-making about treatment, specialist nursing and care coordination, by diagnostic route (ie, screening detection, emergency presentation, urgent and elective general practitioner referral).

RESULTS

For 14 of 18 questions, there was evidence (p≤0.02) for variation in patient experience by diagnostic route, with 6-31 percentage point differences between routes in adjusted proportions of negative experience. Emergency presenters were more likely to report a negative experience for most questions, including those about adequacy of information about their diagnosis and sufficient explanation before operations. Screen-detected patients were least likely to report negative experiences except for support from primary care. Patients diagnosed through elective primary care referrals were most likely to report worse experience for questions for which overall variation by route was generally small.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening-detected patients tend to report the best and emergency presenters the worst experience of subsequent care. Improvement efforts can target care integration for screening-detected patients and provision of information about the diagnosis and treatment of emergency presenters.

Variation in 'fast-track' referrals for suspected cancer by patient characteristic and cancer diagnosis: evidence from 670 000 patients with cancers of 35 different sites

BACKGROUND

In England, 'fast-track' (also known as 'two-week wait') general practitioner referrals for suspected cancer in symptomatic patients are used to shorten diagnostic intervals and are supported by clinical guidelines. However, the use of the fast-track pathway may vary for different patient groups.

METHODS

We examined data from 669 220 patients with 35 cancers diagnosed in 2006-2010 following either fast-track or 'routine' primary-to-secondary care referrals using 'Routes to Diagnosis' data. We estimated the proportion of fast-track referrals by sociodemographic characteristic and cancer site and used logistic regression to estimate respective crude and adjusted odds ratios. We additionally explored whether sociodemographic associations varied by cancer.

RESULTS

There were large variations in the odds of fast-track referral by cancer (P<0.001). Patients with testicular and breast cancer were most likely to have been diagnosed after a fast-track referral (adjusted odds ratios 2.73 and 2.35, respectively, using rectal cancer as reference); whereas patients with brain cancer and leukaemias least likely (adjusted odds ratios 0.05 and 0.09, respectively, for brain cancer and acute myeloid leukaemia). There were sex, age and deprivation differences in the odds of fast-track referral (P<0.013) that varied in their size and direction for patients with different cancers (P<0.001). For example, fast-track referrals were least likely in younger women with endometrial cancer and in older men with testicular cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Fast-track referrals are less likely for cancers characterised by nonspecific presenting symptoms and patients belonging to low cancer incidence demographic groups. Interventions beyond clinical guidelines for 'alarm' symptoms are needed to improve diagnostic timeliness.

Associations between diagnostic activity and measures of patient experience in primary care: a cross-sectional ecological study of English general practices

BACKGROUND

Lower use of endoscopies and urgent referrals for suspected cancer has been linked to poorer outcomes for patients with cancer; it is important to examine potential predictors of variable use.

AIM

To examine the associations between general practice measures of patient experience and practice use of endoscopies or urgent referrals for suspected cancer.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cross-sectional ecological analysis in English general practices.

METHOD

Data were taken from the GP Patient Survey and the Cancer Services Public Health Profiles. After adjustment for practice population characteristics, practice-level associations were examined between the use of endoscopy and urgent referrals for suspected cancer, and the ability to book an appointment (used as proxy for ease of access), the ability to see a preferred doctor (used as proxy for relational continuity), and doctor/nurse communication skills.

RESULTS

Taking into account practice scores for the ability to book an appointment, practices rated higher for the proxy measure of relational continuity used urgent referrals and endoscopies less often (for example, 30% lower urgent referral and 15% lower gastroscopy rates between practices in the 90th/10th centiles, respectively). In contrast, practices rated higher for doctor communication skills used urgent referrals and endoscopies more often (for example, 26% higher urgent referral and 17% higher gastroscopy rates between practices in the 90th/10th centiles, respectively). Patients with cancer in practices that were rated higher for doctor communication skills were less likely to be diagnosed as emergencies (1.7% lower between practices in the 90th than in the 10th centile).

CONCLUSION

Practices where patients rated doctor communication highly were more likely to investigate and refer patients urgently but, in contrast, practices where patients could see their preferred doctor more readily were less likely to do so. This article discusses the possible implications of these findings for clinical practice.

Variation and statistical reliability of publicly reported primary care diagnostic activity indicators for cancer: a cross-sectional ecological study of routine data

OBJECTIVES

Recent public reporting initiatives in England highlight general practice variation in indicators of diagnostic activity related to cancer. We aimed to quantify the size and sources of variation and the reliability of practice-level estimates of such indicators, to better inform how this information is interpreted and used for quality improvement purposes.

DESIGN

Ecological cross-sectional study.

SETTING

English primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

All general practices in England with at least 1000 patients.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sixteen diagnostic activity indicators from the Cancer Services Public Health Profiles.

RESULTS

Mixed-effects logistic and Poisson regression showed that substantial proportions of the observed variance in practice scores reflected chance, variably so for different indicators (between 7% and 85%). However, after accounting for the role of chance, there remained substantial variation between practices (typically up to twofold variation between the 75th and 25th centiles of practice scores, and up to fourfold variation between the 90th and 10th centiles). The age and sex profile of practice populations explained some of this variation, by different amounts across indicators. Generally, the reliability of diagnostic process indicators relating to broader populations of patients most of whom do not have cancer (eg, rate of endoscopic investigations, or urgent referrals for suspected cancer (also known as 'two week wait referrals')) was high (≥0.80) or very high (≥0.90). In contrast, the reliability of diagnostic outcome indicators relating to incident cancer cases (eg, per cent of all cancer cases detected after an emergency presentation) ranged from 0.24 to 0.54, which is well below recommended thresholds (≥0.70).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of indicators of diagnostic activity in individual general practices should principally focus on process indicators which have adequate or high reliability and not outcome indicators which are unreliable at practice level.

Emergency diagnosis of cancer and previous general practice consultations: insights from linked patient survey data

BACKGROUND

Emergency diagnosis of cancer is common and aetiologically complex. The proportion of emergency presenters who have consulted previously with relevant symptoms is uncertain.

AIM

To examine how many patients with cancer, who were diagnosed as emergencies, have had previous primary care consultations with relevant symptoms; and among those, to examine how many had multiple consultations.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Secondary analysis of patient survey data from the 2010 English Cancer Patient Experience Survey (CPES), previously linked to population-based data on diagnostic route.

METHOD

For emergency presenters with 18 different cancers, associations were examined for two outcomes (prior GP consultation status; and 'three or more consultations' among prior consultees) using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 4647 emergency presenters, 1349 (29%) reported no prior consultations, being more common in males (32% versus 25% in females, P<0.001), older (44% in ≥85 versus 30% in 65-74-year-olds, P<0.001), and the most deprived (35% versus 25% least deprived, P = 0.001) patients; and highest/lowest for patients with brain cancer (46%) and mesothelioma (13%), respectively (P<0.001 for overall variation by cancer site). Among 3298 emergency presenters with prior consultations, 1356 (41%) had three or more consultations, which were more likely in females (P<0.001), younger (P<0.001), and non-white patients (P = 0.017) and those with multiple myeloma, and least likely for patients with leukaemia (P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Contrary to suggestions that emergency presentations represent missed diagnoses, about one-third of emergency presenters (particularly those in older and more deprived groups) have no prior GP consultations. Furthermore, only about one-third report multiple (three or more) consultations, which are more likely in 'harder-to-suspect' groups.

Pre-referral general practitioner consultations and subsequent experience of cancer care: evidence from the English Cancer Patient Experience Survey

Prolonged diagnostic intervals may negatively affect the patient experience of subsequent cancer care, but evidence about this assertion is sparse. We analysed data from 73 462 respondents to two English Cancer Patient Experience Surveys to examine whether patients with three or more (3+) pre-referral consultations were more likely to report negative experiences of subsequent care compared with patients with one or two consultations in respect of 12 a priori selected survey questions. For each of 12 experience items, logistic regression models were used, adjusting for prior consultation category, cancer site, socio-demographic case-mix and response tendency (to capture potential variation in critical response tendencies between individuals). There was strong evidence (P < 0.01 for all) that patients with 3+ pre-referral consultations reported worse care experience for 10/12 questions, with adjusted odds ratios compared with patients with 1-2 consultations ranging from 1.10 (95% confidence intervals 1.03-1.17) to 1.68 (1.60-1.77), or between +1.8% and +10.6% greater percentage reporting a negative experience. Associations were stronger for processes involving primary as opposed to hospital care; and for evaluation than report items. Considering 1, 2, 3-4 and '5+' pre-referral consultations separately a 'dose-response' relationship was apparent. We conclude that there is a negative association between multiple pre-diagnostic consultations with a general practitioner and the experience of subsequent cancer care.

Pre-referral GP consultations in patients subsequently diagnosed with rarer cancers: a study of patient-reported data

BACKGROUND

Some patients with cancer experience multiple pre-diagnostic consultations in primary care, leading to longer time intervals to specialist investigations and diagnosis. Patients with rarer cancers are thought to be at higher risk of such events, but concrete evidence of this is lacking.

AIM

To examine the frequency and predictors of repeat consultations with GPs in patients with rarer cancers.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Patient-reported data on pre-referral consultations from three English national surveys of patients with cancer (2010, 2013, and 2014), pooled to maximise the sample size of rarer cancers.

METHOD

The authors examined the frequency and crude and adjusted odds ratios for ≥3 (versus 1-2) pre-referral consultations by age, sex, ethnicity, level of deprivation, and cancer diagnosis (38 diagnosis groups, including 12 rarer cancers without prior relevant evidence).

RESULTS

Among 7838 patients with 12 rarer cancers, crude proportions of patients with ≥3 pre-referral consultations ranged from >30.0% to 60.0% for patients with small intestine, bone sarcoma, liver, gallbladder, cancer of unknown primary, soft-tissue sarcoma, and ureteric cancer. The range was 15.0-30.0% for patients with oropharyngeal, anal, parotid, penile, and oral cancer. The overall proportion of responders with any cancer who had ≥3 consultations was 23.4%. Multivariable logistic regression indicated concordant patterns, with strong evidence for variation between rarer cancers (P <0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients with rarer cancers experience pre-referral consultations at frequencies suggestive of middle-to-high diagnostic difficulty. The findings can guide the development of new diagnostic interventions and 'safety-netting' approaches for symptomatic presentations encountered in patients with rarer cancers.

Atypical mucocutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania braziliensis in an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patient: T-cell responses and remission of lesions associated with antigen immunotherapy

An atypical case of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-associated mucocutaneous lesions due to Leishmania braziliensis is described. Many vacuolated macrophages laden with amastigote forms of the parasite were found in the lesions. Leishmanin skin test and serology for leishmaniasis were both negative. The patient was resistant to therapy with conventional drugs (antimonial and amphotericin B). Interestingly, remission of lesions was achieved after an alternative combined therapy of antimonial associated with immunotherapy (whole promastigote antigens). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were separated and stimulated in vitro with Leishmania antigens to test the lymphoproliferative responses (LPR). Before the combined immunochemotherapy, the LPR to leishmanial antigens was negligible (stimulation index - SI=1.4). After the first course of combined therapy it became positive (SI=4.17). The antigen responding cells were predominantly T-cells (47.5%) most of them with CD8+ phenotype (33%). Very low CD4+ cells (2.2%) percentages were detected. The increased T-cell responsiveness to leishmanial antigens after combined therapy was accompanied by interferon-g (IFN-g) production as observed in the cell culture supernatants. In this patient, healing of the leishmaniasis lesions was associated with the induction of a specific T-cell immune response, characterized by the production of IFN-g and the predominance of the CD8+ phenotype among the Leishmania-reactive T-cells.

Therapeutic effect of oral Kalanchoe pinnata leaf extract in murine leishmaniasis

The effect of a leaf extract from Kalanchoe pinnata (Kp) was investigated in BALB/c mice infected with Leishmania amazonensis. Oral treatment with Kp significantly delayed onset of disease as compared to untreated mice or mice receiving Kp by the intravenous or topical routes. When initiated at early stages of infection, daily oral doses of 8 mg prevented lesion growth and the effect was long-lasting, comparable to the reference antileishmanial drug Glucantime. The decreased lesion growth using the oral route was accompanied by a significant decrease in the number of viable parasites. Protection was accompanied by a diminished capacity of animals to develop delayed-type hypersensitivity and to produce specific antibodies.

Characterization of human T lymphocyte-mediated immune responses induced by a vaccine against American tegumentary leishmaniasis

Forty-three Brazilians were immunized against American tegumentary leishmaniasis using a vaccine made of whole antigens from killed promastigotes of five American dermotropic Leishmania strains. None of the immunized subjects had a positive reaction in the Montenegro skin test (leishmanin) before vaccination, and 74% developed positive reactions in the skin test after vaccination. The proliferative responses of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) induced by antigens from dermotropic Leishmania species were significantly higher after vaccination than before vaccination. However, with antigens from L. chagasi (a causative agent of American visceral leishmaniasis), there was no significant difference between the proliferative responses obtained before and after vaccination. Interferon-gamma was detected in the supernatants of L. braziliensis antigen-stimulated PBMC cultures after vaccination (but not before vaccination). One year after vaccination, PBMC were obtained from eight of the immunized individuals and stimulated with L. braziliensis antigens in proliferative response assays. In all cases, the majority of the responding cells were CD8+ T cells, in contrast to the results of a group of patients with active lesions of tegumentary leishmaniasis, whose L. braziliensis-reactive cells were mainly of the CD4+ T cell phenotype.