Incubation period of COVID-19: a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to conduct a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of estimates of the incubation period of COVID-19.

DESIGN

Rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research.

SETTING

International studies on incubation period of COVID-19.

PARTICIPANTS

Searches were carried out in PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase, Cochrane Library as well as the preprint servers MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Studies were selected for meta-analysis if they reported either the parameters and CIs of the distributions fit to the data, or sufficient information to facilitate calculation of those values. After initial eligibility screening, 24 studies were selected for initial review, nine of these were shortlisted for meta-analysis. Final estimates are from meta-analysis of eight studies.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Parameters of a lognormal distribution of incubation periods.

RESULTS

The incubation period distribution may be modelled with a lognormal distribution with pooled mu and sigma parameters (95% CIs) of 1.63 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.75) and 0.50 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.55), respectively. The corresponding mean (95% CIs) was 5.8 (95% CI 5.0 to 6.7) days. It should be noted that uncertainty increases towards the tail of the distribution: the pooled parameter estimates (95% CIs) resulted in a median incubation period of 5.1 (95% CI 4.5 to 5.8) days, whereas the 95th percentile was 11.7 (95% CI 9.7 to 14.2) days.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of which parameter values are adopted will depend on how the information is used, the associated risks and the perceived consequences of decisions to be taken. These recommendations will need to be revisited once further relevant information becomes available. Accordingly, we present an R Shiny app that facilitates updating these estimates as new data become available.

The impact of badger removal on the control of tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland

In Ireland, the herd prevalence of bovine tuberculosis has remained stable for several decades, and in common with several other countries, progress towards eradication has stalled. There is evidence in support of the potential role of infected badgers (Meles meles, a protected species) in bovine tuberculosis in Ireland and Britain. However, this evidence on its own has not been sufficient to prove disease causation. Field trials are likely to offer the best opportunity to define this role. Building on the earlier East Offaly project, our objectives were to assess the impact of badger removal on the control of tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland. The study was conducted from September 1997 to August 2002 in matched removal and reference areas (average area of 245.1km(2)) in four counties: Cork, Donegal, Kilkenny and Monaghan. Badger removal was intensive and proactive throughout the study period in the removal areas, but reactive (in response to severe tuberculosis outbreaks in cattle) in the reference areas. Removal intensity in the removal and reference areas during the first 2 years of the study averaged 0.57 and 0.07 badgers/km(2)/year, respectively. The outcome of interest was restriction of cattle herds due to confirmed tuberculosis, where tuberculous lesions were detected in one or more animals. Data were analysed using logistic regression (modelling the probability of a confirmed herd restriction) and survival analysis (modelling time to a confirmed herd restriction). During the study period, there was a significant difference between the removal and reference areas in all four counties in both the probability of and the time to a confirmed herd restriction due to tuberculosis. In the final year of the study, the odds of a confirmed herd restriction in the removal (as compared to the reference areas) were 0.25 in Cork, 0.04 in Donegal, 0.26 in Kilkenny and 0.43 in Monaghan. Further, the hazard ratios (removal over reference) ranged from 0.4 to 0.04 (a 60-96% decrease in the rate at which herds were becoming the subject of a confirmed restriction).

Inferred duration of infectious period of SARS-CoV-2: rapid scoping review and analysis of available evidence for asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 cases

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to review the literature on the inferred duration of the infectious period of COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, and provide an overview of the variation depending on the methodological approach.

DESIGN

Rapid scoping review. Literature review with fixed search terms, up to 1 April 2020. Central tendency and variation of the parameter estimates for infectious period in (A) asymptomatic and (B) symptomatic cases from (1) virological studies (repeated testing), (2) tracing studies and (3) modelling studies were gathered. Narrative review of viral dynamics.

INFORMATION SOURCES

Search strategies developed and the following searched: PubMed, Google Scholar, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Additionally, the Health Information Quality Authority (Ireland) viral load synthesis was used, which screened literature from PubMed, Embase, ScienceDirect, NHS evidence, Cochrane, medRxiv and bioRxiv, and HRB open databases.

RESULTS

There was substantial variation in the estimates, and how infectious period was inferred. One study provided approximate median infectious period for asymptomatic cases of 6.5-9.5 days. Median presymptomatic infectious period across studies varied over <1-4 days. Estimated mean time from symptom onset to two negative RT-PCR tests was 13.4 days (95% CI 10.9 to 15.8) but was shorter when studies included children or less severe cases. Estimated mean duration from symptom onset to hospital discharge or death (potential maximal infectious period) was 18.1 days (95% CI 15.1 to 21.0); time to discharge was on average 4 days shorter than time to death. Viral dynamic data and model infectious parameters were often shorter than repeated diagnostic data.

CONCLUSIONS

There are limitations of inferring infectiousness from repeated diagnosis, viral loads and viral replication data alone and also potential patient recall bias relevant to estimating exposure and symptom onset times. Despite this, available data provide a preliminary evidence base to inform models of central tendency for key parameters and variation for exploring parameter space and sensitivity analysis.

Guidance on the use of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern approach in food safety assessment

The Scientific Committee confirms that the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) is a pragmatic screening and prioritisation tool for use in food safety assessment. This Guidance provides clear step-by-step instructions for use of the TTC approach. The inclusion and exclusion criteria are defined and the use of the TTC decision tree is explained. The approach can be used when the chemical structure of the substance is known, there are limited chemical-specific toxicity data and the exposure can be estimated. The TTC approach should not be used for substances for which EU food/feed legislation requires the submission of toxicity data or when sufficient data are available for a risk assessment or if the substance under consideration falls into one of the exclusion categories. For substances that have the potential to be DNA-reactive mutagens and/or carcinogens based on the weight of evidence, the relevant TTC value is 0.0025 μg/kg body weight (bw) per day. For organophosphates or carbamates, the relevant TTC value is 0.3 μg/kg bw per day. All other substances are grouped according to the Cramer classification. The TTC values for Cramer Classes I, II and III are 30 μg/kg bw per day, 9 μg/kg bw per day and 1.5 μg/kg bw per day, respectively. For substances with exposures below the TTC values, the probability that they would cause adverse health effects is low. If the estimated exposure to a substance is higher than the relevant TTC value, a non-TTC approach is required to reach a conclusion on potential adverse health effects.

Q fever in humans and farm animals in four European countries, 1982 to 2010

Q fever is a disease of humans, caused by Coxiella burnetii, and a large range of animals can be infected. This paper presents a review of the epidemiology of Q fever in humans and farm animals between 1982 and 2010, using case studies from four European countries (Bulgaria, France, Germany and the Netherlands). The Netherlands had a large outbreak between 2007 and 2010, and the other countries a history of Q fever and Q fever research. Within all four countries, the serological prevalence of C. burnetii infection and reported incidence of Q fever varies broadly in both farm animals and humans. Proximity to farm animals and contact with infected animals or their birth products have been identified as the most important risk factors for human disease. Intrinsic farm factors, such as production systems and management, influence the number of outbreaks in an area. A number of disease control options have been used in these four countries, including measures to increase diagnostic accuracy and general awareness, and actions to reduce spill-over (of infection from farm animals to humans) and human exposure. This study highlights gaps in knowledge, and future research needs.

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to account for unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates (confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of the tuberculin skin tests and the IFN-γ blood test were compared with estimates published 2010-2015. Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard interpretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp for the SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN-γ blood test Bovine Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se, and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of the accuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostic test performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation.

European perspectives on efforts to reduce antimicrobial usage in food animal production

New regulations on veterinary medicines and medicated feed will substantially influence antimicrobial prescribing and usage throughout Europe into the future. These regulations have been informed by a very large body of work, including the substantial progress towards reduced antimicrobial usage in food animal production in a number of member states of the European Union (EU). This paper seeks to summarise European perspectives on efforts to reduce antimicrobial usage in food animal production. Work within the EU is informed by the global action plan of the World Health Organization, which includes a strategic objective to optimise the use of antimicrobial medicines in human and animal health. There is ongoing measurement of trends in antimicrobial usage and resistance throughout the EU, and detailed information on strategies to reduce the need to use antimicrobials in food animal production. Substantial scientific progress has been made on the measurement of antimicrobial usage, including at herd-level, and on the objective assessment of farm biosecurity. In a number of EU member states, monitoring systems for usage are well-established, allowing benchmarking for veterinarians and farms, and monitoring of national and industry-level trends. Several countries have introduced restrictions on antimicrobial prescribing and usage, including strategies to limit conflicts of interest around antimicrobial prescribing and usage. Further, a broad range of measures are being used across member states to reduce the need for antimicrobial usage in food animal production, focusing both at farm level and nationally. Veterinarians play a central role in the reduction of antimicrobial usage in farm animals. Ireland's National Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance 2017-20 (iNAP) provides an overview of Ireland's commitment to the development and implementation of a holistic, cross-sectoral 'One Health' approach to the problem of antimicrobial resistance. The new regulations offer an important springboard for further progress, in order to preserve the efficacy of existing antimicrobials, which are a critical international resource.

Genetics of animal health and disease in cattle

There have been considerable recent advancements in animal breeding and genetics relevant to disease control in cattle, which can now be utilised as part of an overall programme for improved cattle health. This review summarises the contribution of genetic makeup to differences in resistance to many diseases affecting cattle. Significant genetic variation in susceptibility to disease does exist among cattle suggesting that genetic selection for improved resistance to disease will be fruitful. Deficiencies in accurately recorded data on individual animal susceptibility to disease are, however, currently hindering the inclusion of health and disease resistance traits in national breeding goals. Developments in 'omics' technologies, such as genomic selection, may help overcome some of the limitations of traditional breeding programmes and will be especially beneficial in breeding for lowly heritable disease traits that only manifest themselves following exposure to pathogens or environmental stressors in adulthood. However, access to large databases of phenotypes on health and disease will still be necessary. This review clearly shows that genetics make a significant contribution to the overall health and resistance to disease in cattle. Therefore, breeding programmes for improved animal health and disease resistance should be seen as an integral part of any overall national disease control strategy.

Calf health from birth to weaning. I. General aspects of disease prevention

Calfhood diseases have a major impact on the economic viability of cattle operations. This is the first in a three part review series on calf health from birth to weaning, focusing on preventive measures. The review considers both pre- and periparturient management factors influencing calf health, colostrum management in beef and dairy calves and further nutrition and weaning in dairy calves.

The tuberculosis eradication programme in Ireland: a review of scientific and policy advances since 1988

A national programme to eradicate bovine tuberculosis commenced in Ireland in 1954. During the last 15-20 years, research has been conducted to address gaps in knowledge of disease epidemiology, to objectively evaluate alternative strategy options, and to critically assess the implementation of disease control strategies. This paper provides a review of scientific and policy advances in Ireland since 1988, relevant to the tuberculosis eradication programme in Ireland. There have been substantial advances in knowledge of aspects of disease epidemiology, relating to cattle-to-cattle transmission, the role of wildlife, transmission of infection from wildlife and methods to minimise wildlife-to-cattle transmission. Further, scientific advances have been made both in the detection and management of infected herds. With respect to policy, the paper describes current policy and policy advances in both the detection and management of infected herds, as well as current strategies to prevent herd breakdowns. The Irish programme is a useful example of science-informed policy in a national context.

Risk assessment of pesticides and other stressors in bees: Principles, data gaps and perspectives from the European Food Safety Authority

Current approaches to risk assessment in bees do not take into account co-exposures from multiple stressors. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is deploying resources and efforts to move towards a holistic risk assessment approach of multiple stressors in bees. This paper describes the general principles of pesticide risk assessment in bees, including recent developments at EFSA dealing with risk assessment of single and multiple pesticide residues and biological hazards. The EFSA Guidance Document on the risk assessment of plant protection products in bees highlights the need for the inclusion of an uncertainty analysis, other routes of exposures and multiple stressors such as chemical mixtures and biological agents. The EFSA risk assessment on the survival, spread and establishment of the small hive beetle, Aethina tumida, an invasive alien species, is provided with potential insights for other bee pests such as the Asian hornet, Vespa velutina. Furthermore, data gaps are identified at each step of the risk assessment, and recommendations are made for future research that could be supported under the framework of Horizon 2020. Finally, the recent work conducted at EFSA is presented, under the overarching MUST-B project ("EU efforts towards the development of a holistic approach for the risk assessment on MUltiple STressors in Bees") comprising a toolbox for harmonised data collection under field conditions and a mechanistic model to assess effects from pesticides and other stressors such as biological agents and beekeeping management practices, at the colony level and in a spatially complex landscape. Future perspectives at EFSA include the development of a data model to collate high quality data to calibrate and validate the model to be used as a regulatory tool. Finally, the evidence collected within the framework of MUST-B will support EFSA's activities on the development of a holistic approach to the risk assessment of multiple stressors in bees. In conclusion, EFSA calls for collaborative action at the EU level to establish a common and open access database to serve multiple purposes and different stakeholders.

Calf health from birth to weaning. II. Management of diarrhoea in pre-weaned calves

Calfhood diseases have a major impact on the economic viability of cattle operations. The second of this three part review series considers the management of diarrhoeic diseases in pre-weaned calves. In neonatal calf diarrhoea, oral rehydration therapy is the single most important therapeutic measure to be carried out by the farmer and is usually successful if instigated immediately after diarrhoea has developed. Continued feeding of milk or milk replacer to diarrhoeic calves is important, to prevent malnourishment and weight loss in affected calves. Indiscriminative antibiotic treatment of uncomplicated diarrhoea is discouraged, whereas systemically ill calves can benefit from systemic antibiotic treatment for the prevention of septicaemia or concurrent diseases. Ancillary treatments and specific preventive measures are discussed. Eimeriosis has a high economic impact on the farming industries due to direct cost of treatment and calf losses, but especially due to decreased performance of clinically as well as sub-clinically affected animals. Emphasis lies on prophylactic or metaphylactic treatment, since the degree of damage to the intestinal mucosa once diarrhoea has developed, makes therapeutic intervention unrewarding.

Lessons learned during the successful eradication of bovine tuberculosis from Australia

There are very few international examples of the successful eradication of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis) from a national cattle population. This paper presents a brief overview of the successful TB eradication programme in Australia from 1970, with primary emphasis on lessons of international relevance that were learned from the Australian experience. The national brucellosis and tuberculosis eradication campaign ran for 27 years from 1970 to 1997 and has been followed by ongoing abattoir surveillance. Rapid progress towards eradication was made in southern Australia, but proved much more challenging in extensive pastoral areas of northern Australia. Declaration of TB freedom was made on December 31, 1997. A range of factors were critical to this success, including a compelling rationale for eradication, an agreed final outcome, industry commitment and financial support, a business model for programme planning, implementation and review, consistent and transparent technical standards underpinned by a strict regulatory regime and applied research, the critical role of abattoir surveillance, effective elimination of residual infection and objective measures of programme progress. Although direct translation of some of these experiences may not be possible, many of the lessons learned from the Australian experience may be relevant to other countries.

Evaluating the prevalence of tail biting and carcase condemnations in slaughter pigs in the Republic and Northern Ireland, and the potential of abattoir meat inspection as a welfare surveillance tool

Despite extensive utilisation in epidemiological investigations of animal health, to date there has been little consideration of the value of abattoir meat inspection as a pig welfare surveillance tool. This study measured the prevalence of tail-docking, tail biting, carcase condemnations and associated financial losses of the latter (Northern Ireland only) in 36,963 pigs slaughtered in six abattoirs from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in July and August 2010. Over 99 per cent of inspected pigs had been tail-docked, while 58.1 per cent and 1.03 per cent had detectable and severe tail lesions, respectively. Producer losses resulting from carcase condemnation were estimated to be €0.37 per pig slaughtered. Enhanced capture and utilisation of meat inspection data for use in animal welfare surveillance schemes has the potential to drive improvements in production efficiency and animal welfare. However, significant differences were detected in the prevalence of carcase condemnation conditions between abattoirs and judiciaries (Republic and Northern Ireland). This reflects variation in the criteria and methods of data capture used in meat inspection in different abattoirs. Thus, the meat inspection process needs to be standardised and reformed before it can be reliably utilised in large-scale pig welfare surveillance schemes.

Risk factors for African swine fever incursion in Romanian domestic farms during 2019

African swine fever (ASF) entered Georgia in 2007 and the EU in 2014. In the EU, the virus primarily spread in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the period from 2014-2018. However, from the summer 2018, numerous domestic pig farms in Romania were affected by ASF. In contrast to the existing knowledge on ASF transmission routes, the understanding of risk factors and the importance of different transmission routes is still limited. In the period from May to September 2019, 655 Romanian pig farms were included in a matched case-control study investigating possible risk factors for ASF incursion in commercial and backyard pig farms. The results showed that close proximity to outbreaks in domestic farms was a risk factor in commercial as well as backyard farms. Furthermore, in backyard farms, herd size, wild boar abundance around the farm, number of domestic outbreaks within 2 km around farms, short distance to wild boar cases and visits of professionals working on farms were statistically significant risk factors. Additionally, growing crops around the farm, which could potentially attract wild boar, and feeding forage from ASF affected areas to the pigs were risk factors for ASF incursion in backyard farms.

The effect of paratuberculosis on milk yield--A systematic review and meta-analysis

Bovine paratuberculosis is a disease characterized by chronic granulomatous enteritis causing protein-losing enteropathy. Adverse effects on animal productivity are key drivers in the attempt to control paratuberculosis at the farm level. Economic models require an accurate estimation of the production effects associated with paratuberculosis. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effect of paratuberculosis on milk production. A total of 20 effect estimates from 15 studies were included in the final meta-analysis. Substantial between-study heterogeneity was observed. Subgroup analysis by case definition and study design was carried out to investigate heterogeneity. The majority of between-study variation was attributed to studies that defined cases on serology. Calculation of a pooled effect estimate was only appropriate for studies that defined cases by organism detection. A reduction in milk yield, corrected for lactation number and herd of origin of 1.87 kg/d, equivalent to 5.9% of yield, was associated with fecal culture or PCR positivity in individual cows.

Evidence of genetic resistance of cattle to infection with Mycobacterium bovis

Anecdotal evidence points to genetic variation in resistance of cattle to infection with Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (BTB), and published experimental evidence in deer and cattle suggests significant genetic variation in resistance and reactivity to diagnostic tests. However, such genetic variation has not been properly quantified in the United Kingdom dairy cattle population; it is possible that it exists and may be a factor influencing the occurrence of BTB. Using models based on the outcome of the process of diagnosis (ultimate fate models) and on the outcome of a single stage of diagnosis (continuation ratio models, herd test-date models), this study shows that there is heritable variation in individual cow susceptibility to BTB, and that selection for milk yield is unlikely to have contributed to the current epidemic. Results demonstrate that genetics could play an important role in controlling BTB by reducing both the incidence and the severity of herd breakdowns.

Genetics of tuberculosis in Irish Holstein-Friesian dairy herds

Information is lacking on genetic parameters for tuberculosis (TB) susceptibility in dairy cattle. Mycobacterium bovis is the principal agent of tuberculosis in cattle. The objective of this study was to quantify the genetic variation present among Irish Holstein-Friesian dairy herds in their susceptibility to M. bovis infection. A total of 15,182 cow and 8,104 heifer single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT, a test for M. bovis exposure and presumed infection) records from November 1, 2002, to October 31, 2005, were available for inclusion in the analysis. Data on observed carcass TB lesions from abattoirs were also available for inclusion in the analysis. The only animals retained were those present in a herd during episodes in which at least 2 animals showed evidence of infection; this ensured a high likelihood of exposure to M. bovis. Linear animal models, and sire and animal threshold models were used to estimate the variance components for susceptibility to M. bovis-purified protein derivative (PPD) responsiveness and confirmed M. bovis infection. The heritability estimates from the threshold sire models were biased upward because the relatedness between dam-daughter pairs was ignored. The threshold animal model produced heritability estimates of 0.14 in cows and 0.12 in heifers for susceptibility to M. bovis-PPD responsiveness, and 0.18 in cows for confirmed M. bovis infection susceptibility. Therefore, exploitable genetic variation exists among Irish dairy cows for susceptibility to M. bovis infection. Sire rankings from the linear and threshold animal models were similar, indicating that either model could be used for the analysis of susceptibility to M. bovis-PPD responsiveness. A favorable genetic correlation close to unity was observed between susceptibility to confirmed M. bovis infection and M. bovis-PPD responsiveness, indicating that direct selection for resistance to M. bovis-PPD responsiveness will indirectly reduce susceptibility to confirmed M. bovis infection. Data from the national TB eradication program could be used routinely to estimate breeding values for susceptibility to M. bovis infection.

Bioexclusion of diseases from dairy and beef farms: risks of introducing infectious agents and risk reduction strategies

Infectious disease represents a major threat to the productivity and welfare of cattle herds throughout the world. The introduction of infectious agents into dairy and beef farms may be through direct transmission (purchased cattle, reintroduced resident cattle and contact with contiguous cattle) or indirect transmission (fomites, visitors, other species, and biological materials) and this article reviews the evidence supporting these transmission routes. In the absence of eradication programmes for many endemic infectious diseases, bioexclusion is the key management process for risk reduction. Various ameliorative bioexclusion strategies have been recommended and the evidence supporting these protocols is considered.

A longitudinal study of racing thoroughbreds: performance during the first years of racing

OBJECTIVES

To develop a profile of the racing careers of Thoroughbred horses in south-eastern Queensland, and to examine factors that affect racing during the first years of racing.

DESIGN AND PROCEDURE

A longitudinal study using the racing records of a defined cohort of Thoroughbred horses that were born on or within 12 months following 1 August 1991. Data collection commenced in 1996 and will continue until all horses cease racing. In this paper two measures of performance were examined: race earnings during the first year of racing and cumulative proportion of horses still racing up to 2 years after their first start. Univariable and multivariable methods were used to describe and identify factors associated with the performance of these horses.

RESULTS

By 31 July 1997, 1804 horses were enrolled in the study including 916, 701, 152 and 35 horses that first raced at 2, 3, 4 and 5 years of age, respectively. During their first year of racing, half the horses earned no more than A$450 from race earnings, and 710 (39.4%) horses earned no money at all. In comparison to poorly performing horses, well-performing horses were more likely to be male, to have started as 2-year-olds and to have had more starts during this year. Of the horses that first started as 2 and 3-year-olds, only 71 and 46% continued racing for at least 1 and 2 years after their first start, respectively. Length of racing life was associated with performance during the first year of racing (number of starts and average earnings per race), and with sex, date of birth and age at first start.

CONCLUSIONS

The study confirmed a high wastage among racing Thoroughbreds. As expected, premature retirement from racing was linked to poor performance. During the first year of racing, the race earnings of an estimated 1567 (86.9%) horses were insufficient to cover training costs. The 2-year-old racing cohort outperformed the older racing cohorts in each of the performance measures under investigation. Interpretation of this result, and the long-term effects of 2-year-old racing, was limited by the problem of confounding.

Estimated and predicted changes in the cat population of Australian households from 1979 to 2005

OBJECTIVE

To estimate and predict changes in the cat population of Australian households from 1979 to 2005.

METHOD

Telephone surveys were used to estimate Australia's total household cat population for each year from 1979 to 1999. A simple mathematical model based on population characteristics in 1995 was used to predict future population changes to 2005. Estimates and predictions for 1996 to 1999 were compared to validate the model.

RESULTS

Australia's household cat population increased steadily from 2.23 million in 1979 to peak at 3.24 million in 1988. Since then it has steadily declined to 2.60 million in 1999. The population size predicted from the mathematical model was similar to that from surveys for the years 1996 to 1999. It is predicted that the population will continue to decline to approximately 2.19 million in 2005. The proportion of Australian households owning cats fell from 31.1% in 1994 to 25.8% in 1999, while the average number of cats per cat-owning household remained relatively constant at 1.47.

CONCLUSIONS

Australia's household cat population is decreasing, falling by 19% between 1988, when it reached its peak, and 1999. This contrasts with the US where the population increased by 13.9% over the same period. The decline in Australia appears to be due to a decrease in the total number of cat-owning households rather than the number of cats per cat-owning household. It is likely that this trend will continue unless there is a change in household pet ownership preferences in the meantime.