Injury risk curves to guide safe speed limits on Swedish roads using German crash data supplemented with estimated non-injury crashes

Vision Zero postulates that no one should be killed or seriously injured in road traffic; therefore, it is necessary to define evidence-based speed limits to mitigate impact severity. The overall aims to guide the definition of safe speeds limits by establishing relations between impact speed and the risk of at-least-moderate (MAIS2+) and at-least-severe (MAIS3+) injuries for car occupants in frontal and side crashes in Sweden. As Swedish in-depth data are unavailable, the first objective was to assess the applicability of German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) data to Sweden. The second was to create unconditional injury risk curves (risk of injury given involvement in any crash), rather than risk curves conditional on the GIDAS sampling criterion of suspected-injury crashes. Thirdly, we compared the unconditional and conditional risk curves to quantify the practical implications of this methodological choice. Finally, we provide an example to demonstrate how injury risk curves facilitate the definition of safe, evidence-based speed limits in Sweden. Characteristics important for the injury outcome were similar between GIDAS and Swedish data; therefore, the injury risk curves using German GIDAS data are applicable to Sweden. The regression models yielded the following results for unconditional injury risk curves: 10 % MAIS2+ at 25 km/h impact speed for frontal head-on crashes, 20 km/h for frontal car-to-object crashes, 55 km/h in far-side crashes, and 45 km/h in near-side crashes. A 10 % MAIS3+ risk was reached between 70 and 75 km/h for all crash types. Conditional injury risk curves gave substantially different results; the 10 % MAIS3+ risk in near-side crashes was 140 km/h, twice the unconditional value. For example, if a 10 % MAIS3+ risk was acceptable, treating remaining uncertainty conservatively, assuming compliance with speed limits and that Automated Emergency Braking takes 20 km/h of the travel speed before impact in longitudinal traffic, the safe speed limit for car occupants on most Swedish roads would be 80 km/h and 60 km/h in intersections.

Assessing the applicability of impact speed injury risk curves based on US data to defining safe speeds in the US and Sweden

Vision Zero is an approach to road safety that aims to eliminate all traffic-induced fatalities and lifelong injuries. To reach this goal, a multi-faceted safe system approach must be implemented to anticipate and minimize the risk associated with human mistakes. One aspect of a safe system is choosing speed limits that keep occupants within human biomechanical limits in a crash scenario. The objective of this study was to relate impact speed and maximum delta-v to risk of passenger vehicle (passenger cars and light trucks and vans) occupants sustaining a moderate to fatal injury (MAIS2+F) in three crash modes: head-on vehicle-vehicle, frontal vehicle-barrier, and front-to-side vehicle-vehicle crashes. Data was extracted from the Crash Investigation Sampling System, and logistic regression was used to construct the injury prediction models. Impact speed was a statistically significant predictor in head-on crashes, but was not a statistically significant predictor in vehicle-barrier or front-to-side crashes. Maximum delta-v was a statistically significant predictor in all three crash modes. A head-on impact speed of 62 km/h yielded 50% (±27%) risk of moderate to fatal injury for occupants at least 65 years old. A head-on impact speed of 82 km/h yielded 50% (±31%) risk of moderate to fatal injury for occupants younger than 65 years. Compared to the impact speeds, the maximum delta-v values yielding the same level of risk were lower within the head-on crash population. A head-on delta-v of 40 km/h yielded 50% (±21%) risk of moderate to fatal injury for occupants at least 65 years old. A head-on delta-v of 65 km/h yielded 50% (±33%) risk of moderate to fatal injury for occupants younger than 65 years. A maximum delta-v value of approximately 30 km/h yielded 50% (±42%) risk of MAIS2+F injury for passenger car occupants in vehicle-vehicle front-to-side crashes. A maximum delta-v value of approximately 44 km/h yielded 50% (±24%) risk of MAIS2+F injury for light truck and van occupants, respectively, in vehicle-vehicle front-to-side crashes.

The safety potential of enhanced lateral vehicle positioning

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to estimate the potential safety benefits of Emergency Lane Keeping (ELK) and Autonomous Emergency Steering (AES) systems with precise and reliable lateral positioning.

METHODS

The material comprised in-depth studies of fatal road crashes in Sweden in 2017. Crashes resulting in passenger car occupant fatality (n = 114) were included; single vehicle (n = 60) and head-on (n = 31), intersection (n = 9), rear-end (n = 5), overtaking (n = 5), animal (n = 1), other (n = 1, U-turn), and train (n = 2). Additionally, fatal collisions between motor vehicles and vulnerable road users (VRUs) were included; pedestrians (n = 36), cyclists/moped users (n = 15), and motorcyclists (n = 17). A case-by-case analysis was conducted to identify crashes potentially prevented by ELK and AES with precise (within 0.1 m accuracy) and reliable lateral positioning. The identified crashes potentially avoided by ELK systems involved unintentional drift-out-of-lane on roads with posted speed limits of ≥70 km/h (43 mph). For comparison, the same material was used to identify the potential safety benefits of the more traditional lane departure warning (LDW) and Lane Keeping Assist (LKA) systems without enhanced lateral positioning. Crashes potentially avoided by LDW/LKA occurred on roads with visible lane markings and without rumble strips on the departure side while ELK with enhanced lateral positioning is not reliant on lane markings. Collisions potentially avoided by AES occurred on roads with sufficient escape zones and road friction.

RESULTS

The study shows that ELK systems with enhanced lateral positioning could potentially avoid 33 - 45 (36 - 49%) out of 91 head-on and single car crashes resulting in passenger car occupant fatality, which corresponds to a further 18% (5/28) compared to traditional lane support (LDW/LKA) without enhanced lateral positioning. The improved lane keeping addresses crashes involving absent or nonvisible lane markings that are covered by snow. Furthermore, the study shows that the evasive steering features of AES systems with enhanced lateral positioning could potentially prevent 28 (54%) out of 52 collisions resulting in passenger car occupant fatalities (i.e., head-on, intersection, rear-end, overtaking, and animal collision). Additionally, AES with enhanced lateral positioning could potentially prevent 16 (31%) out of 51 collisions between motor vehicles and vulnerable road users resulting in fatally injured pedestrians, cyclists or moped users. The total potential safety benefits of AES include both lane keeping and evasive steering features including lane escaping. The study identified that the total number of crashes potentially avoided by AES corresponds to 42% out of all crashes resulting in passenger car occupant fatalities (n = 48/114).

CONCLUSIONS

This is a first attempt to identify and quantify the increase in potential safety benefits, based on the assumption that robust lateral vehicle positioning has been applied to lane keeping as well as lane escaping. In addition to the potentially increased number of prevented crashes compared to traditional lane support, a robust lateral positioning system may have the potential to improve the redundancy in positioning systems. Previous research suggests several techniques to improve lateral vehicle positioning. However, further research is required, including testing for implementation of adequately improved lateral vehicle awareness to establish which techniques are appropriate.

The effectiveness of centerline rumble strips (CLRS) on two-lane carriageways in Sweden on injury accident risk for cars equipped with electronic stability control (ESC) and cars without ESC

Objective: Electronic Stability Control (ESC) and Lane Departure Warning (LDW) are in-vehicle safety systems that complement each other. While the implementation of on-board lane support systems in traffic is still limited and the majority of the traffic volume is made up by ESC-equipped cars, the effectiveness of centerline rumble strips (CLRS) for ESC-equipped cars need to be quantified. The aim of the present study is to estimate the effectiveness of CLRS on two-lane carriageways in Sweden, on injury accident risk for cars equipped with ESC and cars without ESC.Methods: Police reported injury crashes during 2011‒2016 were extracted from the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database and merged with the National Road Database (NVDB) containing information regarding road design and road use parameters. The analysis includes crashes on two-lane carriageways in Sweden with a width of at least seven meters in dry and wet road conditions, that is, road surface not covered by ice or snow. The crashes involved a total of 7,490 cars with injured drivers, where 39% of the cars were equipped with ESC.The effectiveness estimates were calculated for injured drivers in ESC-equipped cars in crashes involving drift out of lane to the left, and posted speed limits of 80 and 90 km/h. The analysis was carried out by applying the induced exposure approach in which rates of cars involved in crashes sensitive and non-sensitive to CLRS were compared at sites with and without CLRS. In order to substantiate the evidence for causality, case and control rates of car model year and Seat Belt Reminder (SBR) fitment, driver age, driver gender, traffic volume, road width, speed limit and road surface condition were compared.Results: For ESC-equipped cars, the analysis showed a reduction in CLRS-sensitive crashes by 40% (19‒56%, confidence interval [CI] 95%) where CLRS had been implemented, and a reduction by 29% (11‒44%, CI 95%) for cars without ESC-equipment.Conclusions: Contemporary effectiveness estimates may have important implications for the short and medium-term national road safety management. CLRS remains an important countermeasure to consider for reducing the number of real-world injury crashes. From a systematic safety perspective, it is important to accentuate that CLRS and ESC essentially address different crash scenarios. Still, both CLRS and ESC have the potential to avoid crashes involving unintentional lane drifting resulting in loss of control. When the CLRS alerts a driver of unintentional lane drifting, the ESC can be essential in supporting the driver to safely veer back into the lane without loss of control. However, further analysis on the combined safety benefit of ESC and CLRS is required.

The safety potential of lane departure warning systems-A descriptive real-world study of fatal lane departure passenger car crashes in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

Lane departure crashes account for a significant proportion of passenger car occupant fatalities and serious injuries. Utilizing real-world data involving fatal passenger car crashes in Sweden, the characteristics of lane departure crashes were identified and the safety potential of lane departure warning (LDW) systems was quantified.

METHODS

The material consisted of 104 in-depth studies of fatal passenger car crashes in 2010. The crashes were classified as single-vehicle (n = 48), head-on (n = 52), and overtaking (n = 4) crashes. These crash types were identified as crashes that could have potentially involved lane departure. A case-by-case analysis was carried out and lane departure crashes were identified and characterized using police reports and information collected by crash investigators at the Swedish Transport Administration; for example, inspections and photographs of the crash sites and of the involved vehicles. Lane departure crashes were separated from crashes where loss of control occurred pre-lane departure. Furthermore, loss of control post-lane departures were identified. When studying the pre-stage of lane departure without prior loss of control, crashes were categorized as unintentional drifting, intentional lane change, or evasive maneuver. Using previously published effectiveness information, the potential for LDW systems to prevent crashes was estimated.

RESULTS

Of all crashes with passenger car occupant fatalities in Sweden in 2010, 46% (63/138) were found to relate to lane departure without prior loss of control. These crashes accounted for 61% (63/104) of all single-vehicle, head-on, and overtaking crashes. The remaining 41 crashes were due to loss of control pre-lane departure. Unintentional drifting accounted for 81% (51/63) of all lane departure crashes without prior loss of control, which corresponded to 37% (51/138) of all fatal passenger car occupant crashes. LDW systems were found to potentially prevent 33-38 of the 100 fatal head-on and single vehicle crashes. These crashes involved drifting and occurred on roads with visible lane markings, signed posted speed limits ≥70 km/h, and without rumble strips on the corresponding lane departure side. The range of potentially prevented crashes (33-38) is due to the inclusion or exclusion of crashes involving excessive speeding.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, approximately half (51/100) of all head-on and single-vehicle crashes were identified as being a consequence of drifting, where LDW systems had the potential to prevent the majority (33-38) of these crashes. The typical lane departure crash without prior loss of control occurred on undivided roads in rural areas with signed posted speed limits ≥70 km/h, where the center and side road markings were visible.

The effectiveness of lane departure warning systems-A reduction in real-world passenger car injury crashes

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate the safety benefits of in vehicle lane departure warning (LDW) and lane keeping aid (LKA) systems in reducing relevant real-world passenger car injury crashes.

METHODS

The study used an induced exposure method, where LDW/LKA-sensitive and nonsensitive crashes were compared for Volvo passenger cars equipped with and without LDW/LKA systems. These crashes were matched by car make, model, model year, and technical equipment; that is, low-speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) called City Safety (CS). The data were extracted from the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition database (STRADA) and consisted of 1,853 driver injury crashes that involved 146 LDW-equipped cars, 11 LKA-equipped cars, and 1,696 cars without LDW/LKA systems.

RESULTS

The analysis showed a positive effect of the LDW/LKA systems in reducing lane departure crashes. The LDW/LKA systems were estimated to reduce head-on and single-vehicle injury crashes on Swedish roads with speed limits between 70 and 120 km/h and with dry or wet road surfaces (i.e., not covered by ice or snow) by 53% with a lower limit of 11% (95% confidence interval [CI]). This reduction corresponded to a reduction of 30% with a lower limit of 6% (95% CI) for all head-on and single-vehicle driver injury crashes (including all speed limits and all road surface conditions).

CONCLUSIONS

LDW/LKA systems were estimated to lower the driver injury risk in crash types that the systems are designed to prevent; that is, head-on and single-vehicle crashes. Though these are important findings, they were based on a small data set. Therefore, further research is desirable to evaluate the effectiveness of LDW/LKA systems under real-world conditions and to differentiate the effectiveness between technical solutions (i.e., LDW and LKA) proposed by different manufacturers.

Correlation Between Euro NCAP Pedestrian Test Results and Injury Severity in Injury Crashes with Pedestrians and Bicyclists in Sweden

Pedestrians and bicyclists account for a significant share of deaths and serious injuries in the road transport system. The protection of pedestrians in car-to-pedestrian crashes has therefore been addressed by friendlier car fronts and since 1997, the European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP) has assessed the level of protection for most car models available in Europe. In the current study, Euro NCAP pedestrian scoring was compared with real-life injury outcomes in car-to-pedestrian and car-tobicyclist crashes occurring in Sweden. Approximately 1200 injured pedestrians and 2000 injured bicyclists were included in the study. Groups of cars with low, medium and high pedestrian scores were compared with respect to pedestrian injury severity on the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS)-level and risk of permanent medical impairment (RPMI). Significant injury reductions to both pedestrians and bicyclists were found between low and high performing cars. For pedestrians, the reduction of MAIS2+, MAIS3+, RPMI1+ and RPMI10+ ranged from 20-56% and was significant on all levels except for MAIS3+ injuries. Pedestrian head injuries had the highest reduction, 80-90% depending on level of medical impairment. For bicyclist, an injury reduction was only observed between medium and high performing cars. Significant injury reductions were found for all body regions. It was also found that cars fitted with autonomous emergency braking including pedestrian detection might have a 60-70% lower crash involvement than expected. Based on these results, it was recommended that pedestrian protection are implemented on a global scale to provide protection for vulnerable road users worldwide.

A new method to evaluate future impact of vehicle safety technology in Sweden

In the design of a safe road transport system there is a need to better understand the safety challenges lying ahead. One way of doing that is to evaluate safety technology with retrospective analysis of crashes. However, by using retros- pective data there is the risk of adapting safety innovations to scenarios irrelevant in the future. Also, challenges arise as safety interventions do not act alone but are rather interacting components in a complex road transport system. The objective of this study was therefore to facilitate the prioritizing of road safety measures by developing and applying a new method to consider possible impact of future vehicle safety technology. The key point was to project the chain of events leading to a crash today into the crashes for a given time in the future. Assumptions on implementation on safety technologies were made and these assump- tions were applied on the crashes of today. It was estimated which crashes would be prevented and the residual was analyzed to identify the characteristics of future crashes. The Swedish Transport Administration's in-depth studies of fatal crashes from 2010 involving car passengers (n=156) were used. This study estimated that the number of killed car occupant would be reduced with 53 percent from the year 2010 to 2020. Through this new method, valuable information regarding the characteristic of the future crashes was found. The results of this study showed that it was possible to evaluate future impact of vehicle safety technology if detailed and representative crash data is available.

The correlation between pedestrian injury severity in real-life crashes and Euro NCAP pedestrian test results

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to estimate the correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian rating scores and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes, with special focus on long-term disability. Another aim was to determine whether brake assist (BA) systems affect the injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes and to estimate the combined effects in injury reduction of a high Euro NCAP ranking score and BA.

METHODS

In the current study, the Euro NCAP pedestrian scoring was compared with the real-life outcome in pedestrian crashes that occurred in Sweden during 2003 to 2010. The real-life crash data were obtained from the data acquisition system Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA), which combines police records and hospital admission data. The medical data consisted of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnoses and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scoring. In all, approximately 500 pedestrians submitted to hospital were included in the study. Each car model was coded according to Euro NCAP pedestrian scores. In addition, the presence or absence of BA was coded for each car involved. Cars were grouped according to their scoring. Injury outcomes were analyzed with AIS and, at the victim level, with permanent medical impairment. This was done by translating the injury scores for each individual to the risk of serious consequences (RSC) at 1, 5, and 10 percent risk of disability level. This indicates the total risk of a medical disability for each victim, given the severity and location of injuries. The mean RSC (mRSC) was then calculated for each car group and t-tests were conducted to falsify the null hypothesis at p ≤ .05 that the mRSC within the groups was equal.

RESULTS

The results showed a significant reduction of injury severity for cars with better pedestrian scoring, although cars with a high score could not be studied due to lack of cases. The reduction in RSC for medium-performing cars in comparison with low-performing cars was 17, 26, and 38 percent for 1, 5, and 10 percent of medical impairment, respectively. These results applied to urban areas with speed limits up to 50 km/h, although no significant reduction was found in higher speed zones. Regarding cars with BA, the null hypothesis could not be rejected at p = .05; hence, no significant results of injury reduction were found.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian score and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes was found. Injury reduction was found to be higher with increasing severity and level of permanent medical impairment. The difference between 1- and 2-star cars is 17 percent in mean risk of permanent medical impairment (mRSC) 1%+, 26 percent in mRSC 5%+, and 38 percent in mRSC 10%+ for crashes in speed zones up to 50 km/h. Brake assist was not found to provide a statistically significant injury reduction.