The Incidence and Differential Seasonal Patterns of Plasmodium vivax Primary Infections and Relapses in a Cohort of Children in Papua New Guinea

Plasmodium vivax has the ability to relapse from dormant parasites in the liver weeks or months after inoculation, causing further blood-stage infection and potential onward transmission. Estimates of the force of blood-stage infections arising from primary infections and relapses are important for designing intervention strategies. However, in endemic settings their relative contributions are unclear. Infections are frequently asymptomatic, many individuals harbor multiple infections, and while high-resolution genotyping of blood samples enables individual infections to be distinguished, primary infections and relapses cannot be identified. We develop a model and fit it to longitudinal genotyping data from children in Papua New Guinea to estimate the incidence and seasonality of P vivax primary infection and relapse. The children, aged one to three years at enrolment, were followed up over 16 months with routine surveys every two months. Blood samples were taken at the routine visits and at other times if the child was ill. Samples positive by microscopy or a molecular method for species detection were genotyped using high-resolution capillary electrophoresis for P vivax MS16 and msp1F3, and P falciparum msp2. The data were summarized as longitudinal patterns of success or failure to detect a genotype at each routine time-point (eg 001000001). We assume that the seasonality of P vivax primary infection is similar to that of P falciparum since they are transmitted by the same vectors and, because P falciparum does not have the ability to relapse, the seasonality can be estimated. Relapses occurring during the study period can be a consequence of infections occurring prior to the study: we assume that the seasonal pattern of primary infections repeats over time. We incorporate information from parasitological and entomology studies to gain leverage for estimating the parameters, and take imperfect detection into account. We estimate the force of P vivax primary infections to be 11.5 (10.5, 12.3) for a three-year old child per year and the mean number of relapses per infection to be 4.3 (4.0, 4.6) over 16 months. The peak incidence of relapses occurred in the two month interval following the peak interval for primary infections: the contribution to the force of blood-stage infection from relapses is between 71% and 90% depending on the season. Our estimates contribute to knowledge of the P vivax epidemiology and have implications for the timing of intervention strategies targeting different stages of the life cycle.

Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread of the malaria species affecting humans. It has the ability for parasites to lie dormant in liver cells and then to relapse weeks or months later, causing further blood-stage infections and onward transmission. Relapses present a challenge to control and elimination programs. The contribution of relapses to the force of blood-stage infection is not well established. While genotyping can distinguish individual infections, the difficulty lies in the inability to distinguish primary infections (occurring shortly after an infectious mosquito bite) and relapses. This is a gap in the knowledge of the epidemiology of P vivax. We develop a statistical model to tease out and estimate the contributions of primary infections and relapses to the force of blood-stage infection. We use data from a cohort of children in Papua New Guinea with genotyped routine blood samples. The study area has both P vivax and P falciparum malaria: we use the seasonality of P falciparum to estimate the seasonality of P vivax primary infections. We also take into account infections occurring prior to the study period and their subsequent relapses during the study period. We find that approximately 80% of the force of blood-stage infection l is contributed by relapses and that primary infections and relapses have different seasonal patterns. The findings are important to the epidemiology of P vivax and for designing intervention strategies targeting different stages of the parasite life cycle.

Estimating the numbers of malaria infections in blood samples using high-resolution genotyping data

People living in endemic areas often habour several malaria infections at once. High-resolution genotyping can distinguish between infections by detecting the presence of different alleles at a polymorphic locus. However the number of infections may not be accurately counted since parasites from multiple infections may carry the same allele. We use simulation to determine the circumstances under which the number of observed genotypes are likely to be substantially less than the number of infections present and investigate the performance of two methods for estimating the numbers of infections from high-resolution genotyping data. The simulations suggest that the problem is not substantial in most datasets: the disparity between the mean numbers of infections and of observed genotypes was small when there was 20 or more alleles, 20 or more blood samples, a mean number of infections of 6 or less and where the frequency of the most common allele was no greater than 20%. The issue of multiple infections carrying the same allele is unlikely to be a major component of the errors in PCR-based genotyping. Simulations also showed that, with heterogeneity in allele frequencies, the observed frequencies are not a good approximation of the true allele frequencies. The first method that we proposed to estimate the numbers of infections assumes that they are a good approximation and hence did poorly in the presence of heterogeneity. In contrast, the second method by Li et al estimates both the numbers of infections and the true allele frequencies simultaneously and produced accurate estimates of the mean number of infections.

How much remains undetected? Probability of molecular detection of human Plasmodia in the field

Background

In malaria endemic areas, most people are simultaneously infected with different parasite clones. Detection of individual clones is hampered when their densities fluctuate around the detection limit and, in case of P. falciparum, by sequestration during part of their life cycle. This has important implications for measures of levels of infection or for the outcome of clinical trials. This study aimed at measuring the detectability of individual P. falciparum and P. vivax parasite clones in consecutive samples of the same patient and at investigating the impact of sampling strategies on basic epidemiological measures such as multiplicity of infection (MOI).

Methods

Samples were obtained in a repeated cross-sectional field survey in 1 to 4.5 years old children from Papua New Guinea, who were followed up in 2-monthly intervals over 16 months. At each follow-up visit, two consecutive blood samples were collected from each child at intervals of 24 hours. Samples were genotyped for the polymorphic markers msp2 for P. falciparum and msp1F3 and MS16 for P. vivax. Observed prevalence and mean MOI estimated from single samples per host were compared to combined data from sampling twice within 24 h.

Findings and Conclusion

Estimated detectability was high in our data set (0.79 [95% CI 0.76–0.82] for P. falciparum and, depending on the marker, 0.61 [0.58–0.63] or 0.73 [0.71–0.75] for P. vivax). When genotyping data from sequential samples, collected 24 hours apart, were combined, the increase in measured prevalence was moderate, 6 to 9% of all infections were missed on a single day. The effect on observed MOI was more pronounced, 18 to 31% of all individual clones were not detected in a single bleed. Repeated sampling revealed little difference between detectability of P. falciparum and P. vivax.

Treatment with coartem (artemether-lumefantrine) in Papua New Guinea

A recent drug efficacy trial reported Coartem (artemether-lumefantrine) to be highly effective against Plasmodium falciparum in children less than 5 years of age in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In contrast, we have observed high levels of treatment failures in non-trial conditions in a longitudinal cohort study in the same age group in PNG. Recrudescences were confirmed by genotyping of three different marker genes to provide optimal discrimination power between parasite clones. After excluding genetic host factors by genotyping potentially relevant cytochrome P450 loci, the high number of treatment failures in our study is best explained by poor adherence to complex dosing regimens in combination with insufficient fat supplementation, which are both crucial parameters for the outcome of Coartem treatment. In contrast to the situation in classic drug trials with ideal treatment conditions, our field survey highlights potential problems with unsupervised usage of Coartem in routine clinical practice and under program conditions.

Comparison of Plasmodium falciparum allelic frequency distribution in different endemic settings by high-resolution genotyping

Background

The diversity of genotyping markers of Plasmodium falciparum depends on transmission intensity. It has been reported that the diversity of the merozoite surface protein 2 (msp2) is greater in areas of high compared to low endemicity, however, results for msp1 were inconsistent. These previous reports relied on low resolution genotyping techniques.

Methods

In the present study, a high-resolution capillary electrophoresis-based technique was applied to genotype samples from areas of different endemicity in Papua New Guinea and Tanzania. For both endemic settings, the diversity of msp1 and msp2 was investigated; the mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) and the F_ST values were determined to investigate whether more accurate sizing generates different results.

Results and Conclusion

The results of the present study confirmed previous reports of a higher mean MOI for both marker genes and increased genetic diversity in areas of higher endemicity as estimated by the total number of distinct alleles for msp2. For msp1 a minor increase in diversity was observed. Measures of between population variance in allele frequencies (F_ST) indicated little genetic differentiation for both marker genes between the two populations from different endemic settings. MOI adjusted for the probability of multiple infections sharing the same allele was estimated by using the msp2 allele frequency distribution and the distribution of observed numbers of concurrent infections. For the high-resolution typing technique applied in this study, this adjustment made little difference to the estimated mean MOI compared to the observed mean MOI.

Heterogeneous distribution of Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance haplotypes in subsets of the host population

Background

The emergence of drug resistance is a major problem in malaria control. For mathematical modelling of the transmission and spread of drug resistance the determinant parameters need to be identified and measured. The underlying hypothesis is that mutations associated with drug resistance incur fitness costs to the parasite in absence of drug pressure. The distribution of drug resistance haplotypes in different subsets of the host population was investigated. In particular newly acquired haplotypes after radical cure were characterized and compared to haplotypes from persistent infections.

Methods

Mutations associated with antimalarial drug resistance were analysed in parasites from children, adults, and new infections occurring after treatment. Twenty-five known single nucleotide polymorphisms from four Plasmodium falciparum genes associated with drug resistance were genotyped by DNA chip technology.

Results

Haplotypes were found to differ between subsets of the host population. A seven-fold mutated haplotype was significantly reduced in adults compared to children and new infections, whereas parasites harbouring fewer mutations were more frequent in adults.

Conclusion

The reduced frequency of highly mutated parasites in chronic infections in adults is likely a result of fitness costs of drug resistance that increases with number of mutations and is responsible for reduced survival of mutant parasites.