Modelling cost-effective strategies for minimising socioeconomic inequalities in colorectal cancer screening outcomes in England

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality is higher in socioeconomically deprived groups for a variety of reasons, but is exacerbated by poorer screening uptake. However, many strategies for improving screening participation exist. This analysis aimed to model the impact of screening on CRC inequalities in England and then compare different strategies for increasing participation, to determine the most cost-effective methods for reducing screening-induced inequalities. An existing health economic model, Microsimulation Model in Cancer of the Bowel was adapted. Screening-eligible individuals were simulated to investigate the impact of screening on CRC inequalities. Following this, four strategies for promoting screening participation were compared: 1) annual re-invitation of screening non-participants; 2) a national media advertising campaign; 3) text message reminders for non-participants; 4) health promotion in deprived populations. Cost-effectiveness, CRC outcomes, resource impacts and effects on CRC inequalities were assessed. Inequalities analysis was based on age-standardised CRC mortality by socioeconomic group. Screening was found to be highly cost-effective but CRC inequalities increased as screening effectiveness improved. Annual re-invitation of non-participants was most cost-effective for promoting particiption (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = £4404 per quality-adjusted life-year), reducing CRC mortality (11,129 deaths averted), and reducing screening-induced inequality (slope of inequalities reduced from 20.80 to 19.38), although it required 42% more screening kits to be sent out. Other strategies were cost-effective compared with screening alone, and improved CRC outcomes, but had varying impacts on inequalities. Whilst bowel cancer screening increases socioeconomic inequalities in CRC mortality, effective and cost-effective strategies are available for mitigating screening-induced inequalities.

Optimizing the Design of a Repeated Fecal Immunochemical Test Bowel Cancer Screening Programme With a Limited Endoscopy Capacity From a Health Economic Perspective

OBJECTIVES

In 2016, it was announced that the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) would replace the guaiac fecal occult blood test in the UK Bowel Cancer Screening Programme. England has limited endoscopy capacity. This study informed decision making by determining the most cost-effective FIT screening strategy (age range, frequency, and FIT threshold) under a constrained endoscopy capacity.

METHODS

An economic model with a colorectal cancer natural history component was used to model 60 221 screening strategies with first screening at age 50 to 60 years, screening interval of 1 to 6 years, 3+ screening episodes, and FIT integer threshold of 20 to 180 μg hemoglobin/g feces. Screening strategies requiring the same endoscopy capacity were compared to determine the characteristics of the most cost-effective strategies.

RESULTS

With 50 000 annual screening referral colonoscopies, the 20 most cost-effective strategies had a starting age of 50 to 53 years, 2-yearly screening, 7 or 8 rounds of screening, and FIT threshold of 127 to 166. Compared with a 2-yearly screening interval, screening less frequently (3-, 4-, 5-, or 6-yearly) with a more sensitive FIT was less cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The UK Bowel Cancer Screening Programme should use a 2-yearly FIT screening interval. When endoscopy capacity increases, the screening starting age should be reduced first followed by reducing the FIT threshold. These findings are relevant for other colorectal cancer screening programs with constrained endoscopy capacity.

Calibrating Natural History of Cancer Models in the Presence of Data Incompatibility: Problems and Solutions

The calibration of cancer natural history models is often challenged by a lack of representative calibration targets, forcing modellers to rely on potentially incompatible datasets. Using a microsimulation colorectal cancer model as an example, the purposes of this paper are to (1) highlight the reasons for uncertainty in calibration targets, (2) illustrate practical and generalisable approaches for dealing with incompatibility in calibration targets, and (3) discuss the importance of future research in the area of incorporating uncertainty in calibration. The low quality of data and differences in populations, outcome definitions, and healthcare systems may result in incompatibility between the model and the data. Acknowledging reasons for data incompatibility allows assessment of the risk of incompatibility before calibrating the model. Only a few approaches are available to address data incompatibility, for instance addressing biases in calibration targets and their adjustment, relaxing the goodness-of-fit metric, and validation of the calibration targets to the data not used in the calibration. However, these approaches lack explicit comparison and validation, and so more research is needed to describe the nature and causes of indirect uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty that cannot be expressed in absolute quantitative forms) and identify methods for managing this uncertainty in healthcare modelling.

O-215 How common is add-on use and how do patients decide whether to use them? A national survey of IVF patients

Study question

How common is IVF add-on use in Australia, and what drives the use?

Summary answer

Most women (82%) had used one or more IVF add-ons and more than half (54%) first learned about the add-ons from their fertility specialist.

What is known already

IVF add-ons are procedures, techniques or medicines which may be considered nonessential to IVF, usually used in attempts to improve the probability of conception and live birth. Despite widespread concern about unproven IVF add-ons, information about the prevalence of their use is limited because these data are not available in national registries or datasets.

Study design, size, duration

Women who had undergone IVF in Australia since 2017 were recruited via social media. Women were excluded if they were gestational surrogates, had used a surrogate, or underwent IVF for oocyte donation or elective oocyte cryopreservation only. Eligible women completed an online survey which was open from 21st June to 14th July 2020.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

Survey questions included demographics, IVF and medical history, and questions specifically about IVF add-ons such as: the type of add-ons used, information sources consulted, and where participants first heard about add-ons. Women also responded to questions about the importance of scientific evidence regarding safety and effectiveness, factors considered in decision-making around add-on use and the presence of any decision regret.

Main results and the role of chance

A total of 1,590 responses were analyzed after excluding 287 ineligible responses. Participants were generally representative of women who undergo IVF in Australia in terms of age, indication for IVF, and use of ICSI for fertilisation. Most women had used at least one add-on (82%), and these were usually associated with an additional fee (72%). It was most common to first learn about IVF add-ons from the fertility specialist (54%), and most women reported that they and their specialist contributed equally to the decision to use add-ons.

Women viewed scientific evidence for safety and effectiveness as very important

on a scale from 0-100, an importance score over 90 was selected by more than half of the participants. Additionally, many (49%) assumed that add-ons were risk-free. Most women experienced regret at the decision to use IVF add-ons (66%), and this regret was greatest among women who experienced IVF failure when using add-ons (83%) and those who believed that the specialist drove the decision to use the add-ons (75%).

Limitations, reasons for caution

This was a retrospective survey of IVF patients, therefore it may suffer from bias due to patient recall. It does not consider the perspective of the IVF clinic or fertility specialist. Certain questions may be more prone to biased responses, such as those regarding who contributed to decision making.

Wider implications of the findings

The high prevalence of add-on use is likely generalizable to other settings where IVF treatment is largely private. Although women viewed scientific evidence as very important, most had used unproven IVF add-ons. This might suggest that women were not aware of the lack of robust evidence to support their use.

Trial registration number

Not applicable

Should colorectal cancer screening start at different ages for men and women? Cost-effectiveness analysis for a resource-constrained service

BACKGROUND

Men have a greater risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) than women, but population screening currently starts at the same age for both sexes.

AIM

This analysis investigates whether, in a resource-constrained setting, it would be more effective and cost-effective for men and women to start screening for CRC at different ages.

METHODS AND RESULTS

An economic modeling analysis was carried out using the Microsimulation Model in Cancer of the Bowel to compare sex-stratification against screening everyone from the same age, taking an English National Health Service perspective. Screening men from age 56 and women from age 60, rather than screening everyone from age 58 using a Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) threshold of 120 μg/g is expected to produce an additional 0.0004 QALYs for a cost of £0.55 per person at model start (Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio = £1392), and to reduce CRC cases and mortality by 25 and 19 per 100 000 people respectively, while using a similar amount of screening resources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates a 61% probability that sex-stratification is more cost-effective than screening everyone at age 58. Similar benefits of sex-stratification are found at other FIT thresholds, but become negligible if mean screening start age is reduced to 50.

CONCLUSION

Where resources are constrained and it is not feasible to screen everyone from the age of 50, starting screening earlier in men than women is likely to be more cost-effective and gain more health benefits overall than strategies where men and women start screening at the same age.

The Costs and Benefits of Risk Stratification for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based On Phenotypic and Genetic Risk: A Health Economic Analysis

Population-based screening for colorectal cancer is an effective and cost-effective way of reducing colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Many genetic and phenotypic risk factors for colorectal cancer have been identified, leading to development of colorectal cancer risk scores with varying discrimination. However, these are not currently used by population screening programs. We performed an economic analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness, clinical outcomes, and resource impact of using risk-stratification based on phenotypic and genetic risk, taking a UK National Health Service perspective. Biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT), starting at an age determined through risk-assessment at age 40, was compared with FIT screening starting at a fixed age for all individuals. Compared with inviting everyone from age 60, using a risk score with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.721 to determine FIT screening start age, produces 418 QALYs, costs £247,000, and results in 218 fewer colorectal cancer cases and 156 fewer colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 people, with similar FIT screening invites. There is 96% probability that risk-stratification is cost-effective, with net monetary benefit (based on £20,000 per QALY threshold) estimated at £8.1 million per 100,000 people. The maximum that could be spent on risk-assessment and still be cost-effective is £114 per person. Lower benefits are produced with lower discrimination risk scores, lower mean screening start age, or higher FIT thresholds. Risk-stratified screening benefits men more than women. Using risk to determine FIT screening start age could improve the clinical outcomes and cost effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening without using significant additional screening resources. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Colorectal cancer screening is essential for early detection and prevention of colorectal cancer, but implementation is often limited by resource constraints. This work shows that risk-stratification using genetic and phenotypic risk could improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programs, without using substantially more screening resources than are currently available.

How common is add-on use and how do patients decide whether to use them? A national survey of IVF patients

STUDY QUESTION

What is the prevalence and pattern of IVF add-on use in Australia?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Among women having IVF in the last 3 years, 82% had used one or more IVF add-on, most commonly acupuncture, preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy and Chinese herbal medicine.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IVF add-ons are procedures, techniques or medicines which may be considered nonessential to IVF, but usually used in attempts to improve the probability of conception and live birth. The use of IVF add-ons is believed to be widespread; however, there is little information about the prevalence and patterns of use in different settings.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

An online survey was distributed via social media to women in Australia who had undergone IVF since 2017. Women were excluded if they were gestational surrogates, used a surrogate, or underwent ovarian stimulation for oocyte donation or elective oocyte cryopreservation only. The survey was open from 21 June to 14 July 2020.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Survey questions included demographics, IVF and medical history, and use of IVF add-ons including details of the type of add-on, costs and information sources used. Participants were also asked about the relative importance of evidence regarding safety and effectiveness, factors considered in decision-making and decision regret.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

A total of 1590 eligible responses were analysed. Overall, 82% of women had used one or more add-ons and these usually incurred an additional cost (72%). Around half (54%) had learned about add-ons from their fertility specialist, and most reported that the decision to use add-ons was equally shared with the specialist. Women placed a high level of importance on scientific evidence for safety and efficacy, and half (49%) assumed that add-ons were known to be safe. Most women experienced some regret at the decision to use IVF add-ons (66%), and this was more severe among women whose IVF was unsuccessful (83%) and who believed that the specialist had a larger contribution to the decision to use add-ons (75%).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

This retrospective survey relied on patient recall. Some aspects were particularly prone to bias such as contributions to decision-making. This approach to capturing IVF add-on use may yield different results to data collected directly from IVF clinics or from fertility specialists.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

There is a very high prevalence of IVF add-on use in Australia which may be generalisable to other settings with similar models of IVF provision. Although women placed high importance on scientific evidence to support add-ons, most add-ons do not have robust evidence of safety and effectiveness. This suggests that IVF patients are not adequately informed about the risks and benefits of IVF add-ons, or are not aware of the paucity of evidence to support their use.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This research was supported by a McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellowship Grant (University of Melbourne), a Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Innovation Grant (University of Melbourne) and an NHMRC Investigator Grant (APP1195189). A.P. declares that he provides fertility services at Melbourne IVF (part of Virtus Health). J.W. reports grants from Wellcome Trust, during the conduct of the study, and that publishing benefits his career. The remaining authors report no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Electronic clinical decision support tool for assessing stomach symptoms in primary care (ECASS): a feasibility study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the feasibility of a definitive trial in primary care of electronic clinical decision support (eCDS) for possible oesophago-gastric (O-G) cancer.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Feasibility study in 42 general practices in two regions of England, cluster randomised controlled trial design without blinding, nested qualitative and health economic evaluation.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 55 years or older, presenting to their general practitioner (GP) with symptoms associated with O-G cancer. 530 patients (mean age 68 years, 58% female) participated.

INTERVENTION

Practices randomised 1:1 to usual care (control) or to receive a previously piloted eCDS tool for suspected cancer (intervention), for use at the discretion of the GPs, supported by a theory-based implementation package and ongoing support. We conducted semistructured interviews with GPs in intervention practices. Recruitment lasted 22 months.

OUTCOMES

Patient participation rate, use of eCDS, referrals and route to diagnosis, O-G cancer diagnoses; acceptability to GPs; cost-effectiveness. Participants followed up 6 months after index encounter.

RESULTS

From control and intervention practices, we screened 3841 and 1303 patients, respectively; 1189 and 434 were eligible, 392 and 138 consented to participate. Ten patients (1.9%) had O-G cancer. eCDS was used eight times in total by five unique users. GPs experienced interoperability problems between the eCDS tool and their clinical system and also found it did not fit with their workflow. Unexpected restrictions on software installation caused major problems with implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

The conduct of this study was hampered by technical limitations not evident during an earlier pilot of the eCDS tool, and by regulatory controls on software installation introduced by primary care trusts early in the study. This eCDS tool needed to integrate better with clinical workflow; even then, its use for suspected cancer may be infrequent. Any definitive trial of eCDS for cancer diagnosis should only proceed after addressing these constraints.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN125595588.

British Society of Gastroenterology/Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland/Public Health England post-polypectomy and post-colorectal cancer resection surveillance guidelines

These consensus guidelines were jointly commissioned by the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG), the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) and Public Health England (PHE). They provide an evidence-based framework for the use of surveillance colonoscopy and non-colonoscopic colorectal imaging in people aged 18 years and over. They are the first guidelines that take into account the introduction of national bowel cancer screening. For the first time, they also incorporate surveillance of patients following resection of either adenomatous or serrated polyps and also post-colorectal cancer resection. They are primarily aimed at healthcare professionals, and aim to address:Which patients should commence surveillance post-polypectomy and post-cancer resection?What is the appropriate surveillance interval?When can surveillance be stopped? two or more premalignant polyps including at least one advanced colorectal polyp (defined as a serrated polyp of at least 10 mm in size or containing any grade of dysplasia, or an adenoma of at least 10 mm in size or containing high-grade dysplasia); or five or more premalignant polyps The Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) instrument provided a methodological framework for the guidelines. The BSG's guideline development process was used, which is National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) compliant.two or more premalignant polyps including at least one advanced colorectal polyp (defined as a serrated polyp of at least 10 mm in size or containing any grade of dysplasia, or an adenoma of at least 10 mm in size or containing high-grade dysplasia); or five or more premalignant polyps The key recommendations are that the high-risk criteria for future colorectal cancer (CRC) following polypectomy comprise either:two or more premalignant polyps including at least one advanced colorectal polyp (defined as a serrated polyp of at least 10 mm in size or containing any grade of dysplasia, or an adenoma of at least 10 mm in size or containing high-grade dysplasia); or five or more premalignant polyps This cohort should undergo a one-off surveillance colonoscopy at 3 years. Post-CRC resection patients should undergo a 1 year clearance colonoscopy, then a surveillance colonoscopy after 3 more years.

External Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Model Against Screening Trial Long-Term Follow-Up Data

BACKGROUND

The University of Sheffield School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Bowel Cancer Screening Model has been used previously to make decisions about colorectal cancer screening strategies in England.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to perform an external validation of the ScHARR model against long-term follow-up data about colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality reductions due to screening, from the Nottingham trial of guaiac faecal occult blood testing for CRC, and the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial.

METHODS

The ScHARR model was adapted prior to validation to reflect the setting of each trial in terms of population characteristics, details of screening and surveillance programs, uptake of screening, and further investigations and study follow-up. The impact of using current versus historical CRC incidence and mortality data in the validation was also examined by carrying out a series of analyses in which historical data from different years was included in the model.

RESULTS

The ScHARR model was able to predict CRC incidence and mortality rate/hazard ratios from both trials to well within the 95% confidence intervals in the observed data. While it was less accurate in predicting absolute incidence and mortality rates, modeling historical incidence and mortality data enabled these predictions to be improved considerably.

CONCLUSION

The ScHARR model is able to replicate the long-term relative benefit from screening observed in 2 large-scale UK-based screening trials and can therefore be considered to be an appropriate tool to facilitate decision making around the English bowel cancer screening program.

Virtual chromoendoscopy for the real-time assessment of colorectal polyps in vivo: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Current clinical practice is to remove a colorectal polyp detected during colonoscopy and determine whether it is an adenoma or hyperplastic by histopathology. Identifying adenomas is important because they may eventually become cancerous if untreated, whereas hyperplastic polyps do not usually develop into cancer, and a surveillance interval is set based on the number and size of adenomas found. Virtual chromoendoscopy (VCE) (an electronic endoscopic imaging technique) could be used by the endoscopist under strictly controlled conditions for real-time optical diagnosis of diminutive (≤ 5 mm) colorectal polyps to replace histopathological diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the VCE technologies narrow-band imaging (NBI), flexible spectral imaging colour enhancement (FICE) and i-scan for the characterisation and management of diminutive (≤ 5 mm) colorectal polyps using high-definition (HD) systems without magnification.

DESIGN

Systematic review and economic analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

People undergoing colonoscopy for screening or surveillance or to investigate symptoms suggestive of colorectal cancer.

INTERVENTIONS

NBI, FICE and i-scan.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diagnostic accuracy, recommended surveillance intervals, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), adverse effects, incidence of colorectal cancer, mortality and cost-effectiveness of VCE compared with histopathology.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects were searched for published English-language studies from inception to June 2016. Bibliographies of related papers, systematic reviews and company information were screened and experts were contacted to identify additional evidence.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic reviews of test accuracy and economic evaluations were undertaken in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Meta-analyses were conducted, where possible, to inform the independent economic model. A cost-utility decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of VCE compared with histopathology. The model used a decision tree for patients undergoing endoscopy, combined with estimates of long-term outcomes (e.g. incidence of colorectal cancer and subsequent morbidity and mortality) derived from University of Sheffield School of Health and Related Research's bowel cancer screening model. The model took a NHS perspective, with costs and benefits discounted at 3.5% over a lifetime horizon. There were limitations in the data on the distribution of adenomas across risk categories and recurrence rates post polypectomy.

RESULTS

Thirty test accuracy studies were included: 24 for NBI, five for i-scan and three for FICE (two studies assessed two interventions). Polyp assessments made with high confidence were associated with higher sensitivity and endoscopists experienced in VCE achieved better results than those without experience. Two economic evaluations were included. NBI, i-scan and FICE are cost-saving strategies compared with histopathology and the number of quality-adjusted life-years gained was similar for histopathology and VCE. The correct surveillance interval would be given to 95% of patients with NBI, 94% of patients with FICE and 97% of patients with i-scan.

LIMITATIONS

Limited evidence was available for i-scan and FICE and there was heterogeneity among the NBI studies. There is a lack of data on longer-term health outcomes of patients undergoing VCE for assessment of diminutive colorectal polyps.

CONCLUSIONS

VCE technologies, using HD systems without magnification, could potentially be used for the real-time assessment of diminutive colorectal polyps, if endoscopists have adequate experience and training.

FUTURE WORK

Future research priorities include head-to-head randomised controlled trials of all three VCE technologies; more research on the diagnostic accuracy of FICE and i-scan (when used without magnification); further studies evaluating the impact of endoscopist experience and training on outcomes; studies measuring adverse effects, HRQoL and anxiety; and longitudinal data on colorectal cancer incidence, HRQoL and mortality.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016037767.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The association between long-term conditions and uptake of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: results from two English cohort studies

Introduction

Uptake of screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) can reduce mortality, and population-based screening is offered in England. To date, there is little evidence on the association between having a long-term condition (LTC) and CRC screening uptake. The objective of this study was to examine the association between having an LTC and uptake of CRC screening in England with the guaiac fecal occult blood test, with a particular focus on common mental disorders.

Methods

The study was a preregistered secondary analysis of two cohorts: first, a linked data set between the regional Yorkshire Health Study (YHS) and the National Health Service National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (BCSP, years 2006–2014); second, the national English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA, years 2014–2015). Individuals eligible for BCSP screening who participated in either the YHS (7,142) or ELSA Wave 7 (4,099) were included. Study registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02503969.

Results

In both the cohorts, diabetes was associated with lower uptake (YHS odds ratio [OR] for non-uptake 1.35, 95% CI 1.03–1.78; ELSA 1.33, 1.03–1.72) and osteoarthritis was associated with increased uptake (YHS 0.75, 0.57–0.99; ELSA 0.76, 0.62–0.93). After controlling for broader determinants of health, there was no evidence of significantly different uptake for individuals with common mental disorders.

Conclusion

Two large independent cohorts provided evidence that uptake of CRC screening is lower among individuals with diabetes and higher among individuals with osteoarthritis. Further work should compare barriers and facilitators to screening among individuals with either of these conditions. This study also demonstrates the benefits of data linkage for improving clinical decision-making.

A New Approach for Sampling Ordered Parameters in Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis

BACKGROUND

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in cost-effectiveness analysis involves sampling a large number of realisations of an economic model. For some parameters, we may be uncertain around the true mean values of the variables, but the ordering of the values is known. Typical sampling approaches lack either statistical or clinical validity. For example, sampling using a common number generator results in extreme dependence, and independent sampling can lead to realisations with incorrect ordering.

METHODS

We propose a new sampling approach for ordered parameters, the difference method (DM) approach, which samples the parameters of interest via a difference parameter. If the parameters of interest are bounded, it involves transforming the variables so that they are unbounded and then sampling via the difference parameter. We have provided a Microsoft Excel workbook to implement the method. The proposed approach is illustrated with an example sampling ordered parameters for utility and cost.

RESULTS

The DM approach has a number of advantages when comparing with the typical approaches used in practice. It generates PSA samples that have similar summary statistics as the given values in our examples, while maintaining the constraint that one value was greater than another. The method also implies plausible positive correlation between the two ordered variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Both clinical and statistical validity should be checked when producing PSA samples. The DM approach should be considered as a solution to potential problems in generating PSA samples for ordered parameters.

Degarelix for Treating Advanced Hormone-Dependent Prostate Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

As part of its Single Technology Appraisal Process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of degarelix (Ferring Pharmaceuticals) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of degarelix for the treatment of advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer. The School of Health and Related Research Technology Appraisal Group at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence contained within the company's submission to NICE. The evidence, which included a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of degarelix versus leuprorelin, found that degarelix was non-inferior to leuprorelin for reduction of testosterone levels and that degarelix achieved a more rapid suppression of prostate-specific antigen levels and subsequently decreased incidences of testosterone flare associated with luteinising hormone releasing-hormone (LHRH) agonists. However, protection against testosterone flare for the comparators in the clinical trials was not employed in line with UK clinical practice. Further claims surrounding overall survival, cardiovascular adverse events and clinical equivalence of the comparator drugs from six RCTs of degarelix should be regarded with caution because of flaws and inconsistencies in the pooling of trial data to draw conclusions. The cost-effectiveness evidence included a de novo economic model. Based on the ERG's preferred base case, the deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness analysis (ICER) for degarelix versus 3-monthly triptorelin was £14,798 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Additional scenario analyses undertaken by the ERG resulted in ICERs for degarelix versus 3-monthly triptorelin ranging from £17,067 to £35,589 per QALY gained. Subgroup analyses undertaken using the Appraisal Committee's preferred assumptions suggested that degarelix was not cost effective for the subgroup with metastatic disease but could be cost effective for the subgroup with spinal metastases. The company submitted further evidence to NICE following an initial negative Appraisal Committee decision. Further analyses from the Decision Support Unit found that that, whilst some evidence indicated that degarelix could be cost effective for a small subgroup of people with spinal cord compression (SCC), data on the potential size of this subgroup and the rate of SCC were insufficient to estimate an ICER based on the evidence submitted by the company and a separately commissioned systematic review. NICE recommended degarelix as an option for treating advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer in people with spinal metastases, only if the commissioner can achieve at least the same discounted drug cost as that available to the UK NHS in June 2016.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer amongst postmenopausal women: a model-based economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) was the biggest ovarian cancer screening trial to date. A non-significant effect of screening on ovarian cancer was reported, but the authors noted a potential delayed effect of screening, and suggested the need for four years further follow-up. There are no UK-based cost-effectiveness analyses of ovarian cancer screening. Hence we assessed the lifetime outcomes associated with, and the cost-effectiveness of, screening for ovarian cancer in the UK, along with the value of further research.

METHODS

We performed a model-based economic evaluation. Effectiveness data were taken from UKCTOCS, which considered strategies of multimodal screening (MMS), ultrasound screening (USS) and no screening. We conducted systematic reviews to identify the remaining model inputs, and performed a rigorous and transparent prospective evaluation of different methods for extrapolating the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality. We considered costs to the UK healthcare system and measured effectiveness using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We used value of information methods to estimate the value of further research.

RESULTS

Over a lifetime, MMS and USS were estimated to be both more expensive and more effective than no screening. USS was dominated by MMS, being both more expensive and less effective. Compared with no screening, MMS cost on average £419 more (95% confidence interval £255 to £578), and generated 0.047 more QALYs (0.002 to 0.088). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing MMS with no screening was £8864 per QALY (£2600 to £51,576). Alternative extrapolation methods increased the ICER, with the highest value being £36,769 (£13,888 to dominated by no screening). Using the UKCTOCS trial horizon, both MMS and USS were dominated by no screening, as they produced fewer QALYs at a greater cost. The value of research into eliminating all uncertainty in long-term effectiveness was estimated to be worth up to £20 million, or approximately £5 million for four years follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for ovarian cancer with MMS is both more effective and more expensive than not screening. Compared to national willingness to pay thresholds, lifetime cost-effectiveness is promising, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding extrapolated long-term effectiveness.

How to Invest in Getting Cost-effective Technologies into Practice? A Framework for Value of Implementation Analysis Applied to Novel Oral Anticoagulants

Cost-effective interventions are often implemented slowly and suboptimally in clinical practice. In such situations, a range of implementation activities may be considered to increase uptake. A framework is proposed to use cost-effectiveness analysis to inform decisions on how best to invest in implementation activities. This framework addresses 2 key issues: 1) how to account for changes in utilization in the future in the absence of implementation activities; and 2) how to prioritize implementation efforts between subgroups. A case study demonstrates the framework’s application: novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for the prevention of stroke in the National Health Service in England and Wales. The results suggest that there is value in additional implementation activities to improve uptake of NOACs, particularly in targeting patients with average or poor warfarin control. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, additional investment in an educational activity that increases the utilization of NOACs by 5% in all patients currently taking warfarin generates an additional 254 QALYs, compared with 973 QALYs in the subgroup with average to poor warfarin control. However, greater value could be achieved with higher uptake of anticoagulation more generally: switching 5% of patients who are potentially eligible for anticoagulation but are currently receiving no treatment or are using aspirin would generate an additional 4990 QALYs. This work can help health services make decisions on investment at different points of the care pathway or across disease areas in a manner consistent with the value assessment of new interventions.

Evaluating a computer aid for assessing stomach symptoms (ECASS): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

For most cancers, only a minority of patients have symptoms meeting the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidance for urgent referral. For gastro-oesophageal cancers, the 'alarm' symptoms of dysphagia and weight loss are reported by only 32 and 8 % of patients, respectively, and their presence correlates with advanced-stage disease. Electronic clinical decision-support tools that integrate with clinical computer systems have been developed for general practice, although uncertainty remains concerning their effectiveness. The objectives of this trial are to optimise the intervention and establish the acceptability of both the intervention and randomisation, confirm the suitability and selection of outcome measures, finalise the design for the phase III definitive trial, and obtain preliminary estimates of the intervention effect.

METHODS/DESIGN

This is a two-arm, multi-centre, cluster-randomised, controlled phase II trial design, which will extend over a 16-month period, across 60 general practices within the North East and North Cumbria and the Eastern Local Clinical Research Network areas. Practices will be randomised to receive either the intervention (the electronic clinical decision-support tool) or to act as a control (usual care). From these practices, we will recruit 3000 adults who meet the trial eligibility criteria and present to their GP with symptoms suggestive of gastro-oesophageal cancer. The main measures are the process data, which include the practitioner outcomes, service outcomes, diagnostic intervals, health economic outcomes, and patient outcomes. One-on-one interviews in a sub-sample of 30 patient-GP dyads will be undertaken to understand the impact of the use or non-use of the electronic clinical decision-support tool in the consultation. A further 10-15 GPs will be interviewed to identify and gain an understanding of the facilitators and constraints influencing implementation of the electronic clinical decision-support tool in practice.

DISCUSSION

We aim to generate new knowledge on the process measures regarding the use of electronic clinical decision-support tools in primary care in general and to inform a subsequent definitive phase III trial. Preliminary data on the impact of the support tool on resource utilisation and health care costs will also be collected.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN12595588 .

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Implementation: Is Sufficient Evidence Available?

BACKGROUND

Timely implementation of recommended interventions can provide health benefits to patients and cost savings to the health service provider. Effective approaches to increase the implementation of guidance are needed. Since investment in activities that improve implementation competes for funding against other health generating interventions, it should be assessed in term of its costs and benefits.

OBJECTIVE

In 2010, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence released a clinical guideline recommending natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in patients with suspected heart failure. However, its implementation in practice was variable across the National Health Service in England. This study demonstrates the use of multi-period analysis together with diffusion curves to estimate the value of investing in implementation activities to increase uptake of NP testing.

METHODS

Diffusion curves were estimated based on historic data to produce predictions of future utilization. The value of an implementation activity (given its expected costs and effectiveness) was estimated. Both a static population and a multi-period analysis were undertaken.

RESULTS

The value of implementation interventions encouraging the utilization of NP testing is shown to decrease over time as natural diffusion occurs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the value of the implementation activity depends on its efficacy and on the population size.

CONCLUSIONS

Value of implementation can help inform policy decisions of how to invest in implementation activities even in situations in which data are sparse. Multi-period analysis is essential to accurately quantify the time profile of the value of implementation given the natural diffusion of the intervention and the incidence of the disease.

Factors associated with completion of bowel cancer screening and the potential effects of simplifying the screening test algorithm

Background:

The primary colorectal cancer screening test in England is a guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBt). The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) interprets tests on six samples on up to three test kits to determine a definitive positive or negative result. However, the test algorithm fails to achieve a definitive result for a significant number of participants because they do not comply with the programme requirements. This study identifies factors associated with failed compliance and modifications to the screening algorithm that will improve the clinical effectiveness of the screening programme.

Methods:

The BCSP Southern Hub data for screening episodes started in 2006–2012 were analysed for participants aged 60–69 years. The variables included age, sex, level of deprivation, gFOBt results and clinical outcome.

Results:

The data set included 1 409 335 screening episodes; 95.08% of participants had a definitively normal result on kit 1 (no positive spots). Among participants asked to complete a second or third gFOBt, 5.10% and 4.65%, respectively, failed to return a valid kit. Among participants referred for follow up, 13.80% did not comply. Older age was associated with compliance at repeat testing, but non-compliance at follow up. Increasing levels of deprivation were associated with non-compliance at repeat testing and follow up. Modelling a reduction in the threshold for immediate referral led to a small increase in completion of the screening pathway.

Conclusions:

Reducing the number of positive spots required on the first gFOBt kit for referral for follow-up and targeted measures to improve compliance with follow-up may improve completion of the screening pathway.

Eliciting Societal Preferences for Weighting QALYs for Burden of Illness and End of Life

OBJECTIVES

. Recent proposals for value-based assessment, made by the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the United Kingdom, recommended that burden of illness (BOI) should replace end of life (EOL) as a factor for consideration when deciding on new health technologies. This article reports on a study eliciting societal preferences for 1) BOI from a medical condition, defined as quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss due to premature mortality and prospective morbidity, and 2) EOL, defined as expected life expectancy of less than 2 years and expected life expectancy gain from new treatment of 3 months or more.

METHODS

. A discrete choice experiment survey was conducted with an online UK general population sample. Respondents chose whether they thought the health service should treat patient group A or B: life expectancy and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) with current treatment or life expectancy and HRQOL gains from new treatment, respectively. These attributes were used to derive BOI, QALY gain, and EOL. The respondents' choices were analyzed using conditional logistic regression with a range of specifications examined, including BOI or EOL, QALY gain and QALY gain squared, and robustness. QALY weights were estimated.

RESULTS

. The sample of 3669 respondents was representative of the UK population for age and sex. QALY gain had a positive and significant coefficient across all models. QALY gain squared term was negative and significant across all models, indicating a diminishing marginal social value from QALY gains. When included, the BOI coefficient was generally small, positive, and significant, but this was not consistent across the different life expectancy variants. EOL was always positive and significant.

CONCLUSIONS

. The social value of a QALY gain is not equal between recipients but depends on whether they are end of life, and it may depend on the prospective burden of illness.

Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis of health care programmes--a methodological case study of the UK Bowel Cancer Screening Programme

This paper presents an application of a new methodological framework for undertaking distributional cost-effectiveness analysis to combine the objectives of maximising health and minimising unfair variation in health when evaluating population health interventions. The National Health Service bowel cancer screening programme introduced in 2006 is expected to improve population health on average and to worsen population health inequalities associated with deprivation and ethnicity--a classic case of 'intervention-generated inequality'. We demonstrate the distributional cost-effectiveness analysis framework by examining two redesign options for the bowel cancer screening programme: (i) the introduction of an enhanced targeted reminder aimed at increasing screening uptake in deprived and ethnically diverse neighbourhoods and (ii) the introduction of a basic universal reminder aimed at increasing screening uptake across the whole population. Our analysis indicates that the universal reminder is the strategy that maximises population health, while the targeted reminder is the screening strategy that minimises unfair variation in health. The framework is used to demonstrate how these two objectives can be traded off against each other, and how alternative social value judgements influence the assessment of which strategy is best, including judgements about which dimensions of health variation are considered unfair and judgements about societal levels of inequality aversion.

Guaiac faecal occult blood test performance at initial and repeat screens in the English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme

BACKGROUND

In many countries, screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) relies on repeat testing using the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT). This study aimed to compare gFOBT performance measures between initial and repeat screens.

METHODS

Data on screening uptake and outcomes from the English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) for the years 2008 and 2011 were used. An existing CRC natural history model was used to estimate gFOBT sensitivity and specificity, and the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies.

RESULTS

The gFOBT sensitivity for CRC was estimated to decrease from 27.35% at the initial screen to 20.22% at the repeat screen. Decreases were also observed for the positive predictive value (8.4-7.2%) and detection rate for CRC (0.19-0.14%). Assuming equal performance measures for both the initial and repeat screens led to an overestimate of the cost effectiveness of gFOBT screening compared with the other screening modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Performance measures for gFOBT screening were generally lower in the repeat screen compared with the initial screen. Screening for CRC using gFOBT is likely to be cost-effective; however, the use of different screening modalities may result in additional benefits. Future economic evaluations of gFOBT should not assume equal sensitivities between screening rounds.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an awareness campaign for colorectal cancer: a mathematical modeling study

Background

A campaign to increase the awareness of the signs and symptoms of colorectal cancer (CRC) and encourage self-presentation to a GP was piloted in two regions of England in 2011. Short-term data from the pilot evaluation on campaign cost and changes in GP attendances/referrals, CRC incidence, and CRC screening uptake were available. The objective was to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a CRC awareness campaign by using a mathematical model which extrapolates short-term outcomes to predict long-term impacts on cancer mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs.

Methods

A mathematical model representing England (aged 30+) for a lifetime horizon was developed. Long-term changes to cancer incidence, cancer stage distribution, cancer mortality, and QALYs were estimated. Costs were estimated incorporating costs associated with delivering the campaign, additional GP attendances, and changes in CRC treatment.

Results

Data from the pilot campaign suggested that the awareness campaign caused a 1-month 10 % increase in presentation rates. Based on this, the model predicted the campaign to cost £5.5 million, prevent 66 CRC deaths and gain 404 QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to “no campaign” was £13,496 per QALY. Results were sensitive to the magnitude and duration of the increase in presentation rates and to disease stage.

Conclusions

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cancer awareness campaign can be estimated based on short-term data. Such predictions will aid policy makers in prioritizing between cancer control strategies. Future cost-effectiveness studies would benefit from campaign evaluations reporting as follows: data completeness, duration of impact, impact on emergency presentations, and comparison with non-intervention regions.

Can lower risk patients presenting with transient ischaemic attack be safely managed as outpatients?

This study aimed to examine outcome in low risk transient ischaemic attack (TIA) patients presenting to emergency departments (ED) in a regional Australian setting discharged on antiplatelet therapy with expedited neurology review. All patients presenting to Gosford or Wyong Hospital ED with TIA, for whom faxed referrals to the neurology department were received between October 2008 and July 2010, were included in this prospective cohort study. Classification of low risk was based on an age, blood pressure, clinical features, duration of symptoms and diabetes (ABCD2) score <4 and the absence of high risk features, including known carotid disease, crescendo TIA, or atrial fibrillation. Patients with ABCD2 scores > or =4 or with high risk features were discussed with the neurologist on call (a decision regarding discharge or admission was then made at the neurologist's discretion). Patients were investigated with a brain CT scan and/or CT angiography, routine pathology, and an electrocardiogram. All discharged patients were commenced on antiplatelet therapy and asked to follow up with their local medical officer within 7 days. The patients were contacted by the neurology department to arrange follow-up. Our primary outcome was the number of subsequent strokes occurring within 90 days. Of 200 discharged patients for whom referrals were received, three patients had a stroke within 90 days. None of these would have been prevented through hospitalisation. In conclusion, medical assessment, expedited investigation with immediate commencement of secondary prevention and outpatient neurology review may be a reasonable alternative to admission for low risk patients presenting to the ED with TIA.

Using resource modelling to inform decision making and service planning: the case of colorectal cancer screening in Ireland

Background

Organised colorectal cancer screening is likely to be cost-effective, but cost-effectiveness results alone may not help policy makers to make decisions about programme feasibility or service providers to plan programme delivery. For these purposes, estimates of the impact on the health services of actually introducing screening in the target population would be helpful. However, these types of analyses are rarely reported. As an illustration of such an approach, we estimated annual health service resource requirements and health outcomes over the first decade of a population-based colorectal cancer screening programme in Ireland.

Methods

A Markov state-transition model of colorectal neoplasia natural history was used. Three core screening scenarios were considered: (a) flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) once at age 60, (b) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) at 55–74 years, and (c) biennial faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) at 55–74 years. Three alternative FIT roll-out scenarios were also investigated relating to age-restricted screening (55–64 years) and staggered age-based roll-out across the 55–74 age group. Parameter estimates were derived from literature review, existing screening programmes, and expert opinion. Results were expressed in relation to the 2008 population (4.4 million people, of whom 700,800 were aged 55–74).

Results

FIT-based screening would deliver the greatest health benefits, averting 164 colorectal cancer cases and 272 deaths in year 10 of the programme. Capacity would be required for 11,095-14,820 diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies annually, compared to 381–1,053 with FSIG-based, and 967–1,300 with gFOBT-based, screening. With FIT, in year 10, these colonoscopies would result in 62 hospital admissions for abdominal bleeding, 27 bowel perforations and one death. Resource requirements for pathology, diagnostic radiology, radiotherapy and colorectal resection were highest for FIT. Estimates depended on screening uptake. Alternative FIT roll-out scenarios had lower resource requirements.

Conclusions

While FIT-based screening would quite quickly generate attractive health outcomes, it has heavy resource requirements. These could impact on the feasibility of a programme based on this screening modality. Staggered age-based roll-out would allow time to increase endoscopy capacity to meet programme requirements. Resource modelling of this type complements conventional cost-effectiveness analyses and can help inform policy making and service planning.

Bevacizumab for metastatic colorectal cancer: a NICE single technology appraisal

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of bevacizumab (Roche Products) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of this drug for the treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), as part of the Institute's Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process. The School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper provides a description of the company submission, the ERG review and NICE's subsequent decisions. The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology provided within the manufacturer's submission to NICE. The ERG also independently searched for relevant evidence and modified the manufacturer's decision analytic model to examine the impact of altering some of the key assumptions. The main clinical effectiveness data were derived from a phase III, multicentre, multinational, two-arm, randomized, open-label study with the primary objective of confirming the non-inferiority of oxaliplatin plus capecitabine (XELOX) compared with oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil and folinic acid (FOLFOX-4) in adult patients with histologically confirmed mCRC who had not previously been treated. The ERG considered that the NO16966 trial was of reasonable methodological quality and demonstrated a significant improvement in both progression-free and overall survival when bevacizumab is added to either XELOX or FOLFOX-4. The ERG considered that the size of the actual treatment effect of bevacizumab was uncertain due to trial design limitations, imbalance of a known prognostic factor, relatively short treatment duration compared with that allowed within the trial protocol, and interpretation of the statistical analyses. The manufacturer's submission included a de novo economic evaluation using a cost-effectiveness model built in Microsoft® Excel. The ERG believed that the modelling structure employed was appropriate but highlighted several areas of uncertainty that had the potential to have a significant impact on the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The areas of uncertainty identified by the ERG included whether chemotherapy would be administered continuously or intermittently, patient access scheme (PAS) costs and uptake, survival that was dependent on the statistical analyses used, and the likely duration of continued treatment with bevacizumab after cessation of oxaliplatin and the efficacy associated with continuation. The STA described here highlighted the challenges in appraising interventions with a complex PAS. Based on the analyses that include a discount to the list price of oxaliplatin, the ERG concluded that the ICERs for the addition of bevacizumab to XELOX or FOLFOX were both over £50 000. The NICE Appraisal Committee concluded that bevacizumab in combination with oxaliplatin and either 5-fluorouracil plus folinic acid or capecitabine (i.e. FOLFOX or XELOX) was not recommended for the treatment of mCRC.

Reappraisal of the options for colorectal cancer screening in England

AIM

The aim was to use newly available data to estimate the cost effectiveness and endoscopy requirements of screening options for colorectal cancer (CRC) to inform screening policy in England.

METHODS

A state transition model simulated the life experience of a cohort of individuals in the general population of England with normal colon/rectal epithelium through to the development of adenomas and CRC and subsequent death. CRC natural history model parameters and screening test characteristics were estimated simultaneously by a process of model calibration. This process was fitted to observed data on CRC incidence in the absence of screening, data from existing screening programmes, and data from the UK flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening trial. The costs, effects and resource impact were evaluated for a range of screening options involving the guaiac or immunochemical faecal occult blood test (gFOBT/iFOBT) and FS.

RESULTS

The model suggests that screening strategies involving FS or iFOBT may produce additional benefits compared with the current policy of biennial gFOBT for 60-74-year-olds. The age at which a single FS screen results in the greatest quality-adjusted life year gain was 55, with similar gains for ages between 52 and 58. Strategies which combined FS and iFOBT showed further benefits and improved economic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Strategies which combine different screening modalities may provide greater clinical and economic benefits. The collection of comprehensive screening data using a uniform format will enable comparative analysis across screening programmes in different countries, will improve our understanding of the disease and will allow identification of optimal screening modalities.

Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: a comparison of guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing, faecal immunochemical testing and flexible sigmoidoscopy

BACKGROUND

Several colorectal cancer-screening tests are available, but it is uncertain which provides the best balance of risks and benefits within a screening programme. We evaluated cost-effectiveness of a population-based screening programme in Ireland based on (i) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 55-74, with reflex faecal immunochemical testing (FIT); (ii) biennial FIT at ages 55-74; and (iii) once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) at age 60.

METHODS

A state-transition model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for each screening scenario vs no screening. A third party payer perspective was adopted. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

All scenarios would be considered highly cost-effective compared with no screening. The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER vs no screening euro 589 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained) was found for FSIG, followed by FIT euro 1696) and gFOBT (euro 4428); gFOBT was dominated. Compared with FSIG, FIT was associated with greater gains in QALYs and reductions in lifetime cancer incidence and mortality, but was more costly, required considerably more colonoscopies and resulted in more complications. Results were robust to variations in parameter estimates.

CONCLUSION

Population-based screening based on FIT is expected to result in greater health gains than a policy of gFOBT (with reflex FIT) or once-only FSIG, but would require significantly more colonoscopy resources and result in more individuals experiencing adverse effects. Weighing these advantages and disadvantages presents a considerable challenge to policy makers.

FASTER (Face, Arm, Speech, Time, Emergency Response): experience of Central Coast Stroke Services implementation of a pre-hospital notification system for expedient management of acute stroke

Despite benefit in acute ischaemic stroke, less than 3% of patients receive tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in Australia. The FASTER (Face, Arm, Speech, Time, Emergency Response) protocol was constructed to reduce pre-hospital and Emergency Department (ED) delays and improve access to thrombolysis. This study aimed to determine if introduction of the FASTER protocol increases use of tPA using a prospective pre- and post-intervention cohort design in a metropolitan hospital. A pre-hospital assessment tool was used by ambulance services to screen potential tPA candidates. The acute stroke team was contacted, hospital bypass allowed, triage and CT radiology alerted, and the patient rapidly assessed on arrival to ED. Data were collected prospectively during the first 6 months of the new pathway and compared to a 6-month period 12 months prior to protocol initiation. In the 6 months following protocol introduction, 115 patients presented within 24 hours of onset of an ischaemic stroke: 22 (19%) received thrombolysis, significantly greater than five (7%) of 67 patients over the control period, p=0.03. Overall, 42 patients were referred via the FASTER pathway, with 21 of these receiving tPA (50%). One inpatient stroke was also treated. Only two referrals (<5%) were stroke mimics. Introduction of the FASTER pathway also significantly reduced time to thrombolysis and time to admission to the stroke unit. Therefore, fast-track referral of potential tPA patients involving the ambulance services and streamlined hospital assessment is effective and efficient in improving patient access to thrombolysis.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors for febrile neutropenia prophylaxis following chemotherapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Febrile neutropenia (FN) occurs following myelosuppressive chemotherapy and is associated with morbidity, mortality, costs, and chemotherapy reductions and delays. Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) stimulate neutrophil production and may reduce FN incidence when given prophylactically following chemotherapy.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the effectiveness of G-CSFs (pegfilgrastim, filgrastim or lenograstim) in reducing FN incidence in adults undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumours or lymphoma. G-CSFs were compared with no primary G-CSF prophylaxis and with one another. Nine databases were searched in December 2009. Meta-analysis used a random effects model due to heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Twenty studies compared primary G-CSF prophylaxis with no primary G-CSF prophylaxis: five studies of pegfilgrastim; ten of filgrastim; and five of lenograstim. All three G-CSFs significantly reduced FN incidence, with relative risks of 0.30 (95% CI: 0.14 to 0.65) for pegfilgrastim, 0.57 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.69) for filgrastim, and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.88) for lenograstim. Overall, the relative risk of FN for any primary G-CSF prophylaxis versus no primary G-CSF prophylaxis was 0.51 (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.62). In terms of comparisons between different G-CSFs, five studies compared pegfilgrastim with filgrastim. FN incidence was significantly lower for pegfilgrastim than filgrastim, with a relative risk of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Primary prophylaxis with G-CSFs significantly reduces FN incidence in adults undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumours or lymphoma. Pegfilgrastim reduces FN incidence to a significantly greater extent than filgrastim.

Consistency between direct and indirect trial evidence: is direct evidence always more reliable?

OBJECTIVES

To present a case study involving the reduction in incidence of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs), illustrating difficulties that may arise when following the common preference for direct evidence over indirect evidence.

METHODS

Evidence of the efficacy of treatments was identified from two previous systematic reviews. We used Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate relative treatment effects based on direct evidence, indirect evidence, and both pooled together. We checked for inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence and explored the role of one specific trial using cross-validation. A subsequent review identified further studies not available at the time of the original analysis. We repeated the analyses on the enlarged evidence base.

RESULTS

We found substantial inconsistency in the original evidence base. The median odds ratio of FN for primary pegfilgrastim versus no primary G-CSF was 0.06 (95% credible interval: 0.02-0.19) based on direct evidence, but 0.27 (95% credible interval: 0.13-0.53) based on indirect evidence (P value for consistency hypothesis 0.027). The additional trials were consistent with the earlier indirect, rather than the direct, evidence, and there was no inconsistency between direct and indirect estimates in the updated evidence. The earlier inconsistency was due to one trial comparing primary pegfilgrastim with no primary G-CSF. Predictive cross-validation showed that this study was inconsistent with the evidence as a whole and with other trials making this comparison.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the Cochrane Handbook and the NICE Methods Guide express a preference for direct evidence. A more robust strategy, which is in line with the accepted principles of evidence synthesis, would be to combine all relevant and appropriate information, whether direct or indirect.

Cost-effectiveness of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor prophylaxis for febrile neutropenia in breast cancer in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

We report a cost-effectiveness evaluation of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) for the prevention of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy in the United Kingdom (UK).

METHODS

A mathematical model was constructed simulating the experience of women with breast cancer undergoing chemotherapy. Three strategies were modeled: primary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles), secondary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles after an FN event), and no G-CSF prophylaxis. Three G-CSFs were considered: filgrastim, lenograstim, and pegfilgrastim. Costs were taken from UK databases and utility values from published sources. A systematic review provided data on G-CSF efficacy. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined the effects of uncertainty in model parameters.

RESULTS

In the UK, base-case analysis with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20K per quality-adjusted life year gained and also using list prices, the most cost-effective strategy was primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for a patient with baseline FN risk greater than 38%, secondary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for baseline FN risk 11% to 37%, and no G-CSFs for baseline FN risk less than 11%. Using a WTP threshold of £30K and list prices, primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim was cost-effective for baseline FN risks greater than 29%. In all analyses, pegfilgrastim dominated filgrastim and lenograstim. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that higher WTP threshold, younger age, earlier stage at diagnosis, or reduced G-CSF prices result in G-CSF prophylaxis being cost-effective at lower baseline FN risk levels.

CONCLUSION

Pegfilgrastim was the most cost-effective G-CSF. The most cost-effective strategy (primary or secondary prophylaxis) was dependent on the FN risk level for an individual patient, patient age and stage at diagnosis, and G-CSF price.

Bevacizumab in combination with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab in combination with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer based on the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. Evidence was available in the form of one phase III, multicentre, multinational, randomised, open-label study (NO16966 trial). This two-arm study was originally designed to demonstrate the non-inferiority of oral capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (XELOX) compared with 5-fluorouracil plus folinic acid plus oxaliplatin (FOLFOX)-4 in adult patients with histologically confirmed metastatic colorectal cancer who had not previously been treated. Following randomisation of 634 patients, the open-label study was amended to include a 2 × 2 factorial randomised (partially blinded for bevacizumab) phase III trial with the coprimary objective of demonstrating superiority of bevacizumab in combination with chemotherapy compared with chemotherapy alone. Measured outcomes included overall survival, progression-free survival, response rate, adverse effects of treatment and health-related quality of life. The manufacturer's primary pooled analysis of superiority (using the intention-to-treat population) showed that after a median follow-up of 28 months, the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy significantly improved progression-free survival and overall survival compared with chemotherapy alone in adult patients with histologically confirmed metastatic colorectal cancer who were not previously treated [median progression-free survival 9.4 vs 7.7 months (absolute difference 1.7 months); hazard ratio (HR) 0.79, 97.5% confidence interval (CI) 0.72 to 0.87; p = 0.0001; median overall survival 21.2 vs 18.9 months (absolute difference 2.3 months); HR 0.83, 97.5% CI 0.74 to 0.93; p = 0.0019]. The NO16966 trial was of reasonable methodological quality and demonstrated a significant improvement in both progression-free survival and overall survival when bevacizumab was added to XELOX or FOLFOX. However, the size of the actual treatment effect of bevacizumab is uncertain. The ERG believed that the modelling structure employed was appropriate, but highlighted several key issues and areas of uncertainty. At the time of writing, NICE was yet to issue the guidance for this appraisal.

Bayesian calibration of a natural history model with application to a population model for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Cancer natural history models are essential when evaluating screening/preventative interventions or changes to diagnostic pathways. Natural history models commonly use a state transition structure, but it is often not possible to observe the state transition probabilities required for parameterization.

AIM

. The work aimed to accurately represent the uncertainty in the parameters of a state transition model for the natural history of colorectal cancer by embedding the problem in the framework of Bayesian inference.

METHODS

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate natural history parameters and screening test characteristics by generating multiple sets of parameters from the posterior distribution, which is the probability distribution that is compatible with the observed data. Observed data included colorectal cancer incidence categorized by age and stage, autopsy data on polyp prevalence, and cancer and polyp detection rates from the first round of screening with the fecal occult blood test in England. The approach was implemented using Visual Basic.

RESULTS

The results were subsequently examined for convergence using the package CODA in R 2.8.0. Outputs from fitting were samples from the joint posterior distribution of the natural history parameters given the epidemiological data. The parameter sets obtained are shown to have a good fit to all the observed data sets. These parameter sets are used when running probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

The advantages of this strategy are that it draws efficiently from a high-dimensional correlated parameter space. The algorithm is simple to code and runs overnight on a standard desktop PC. Using this method, the parameter sets are drawn according to their posterior probability given calibration data, and thus they correctly summarize the residual uncertainty in the parameter space.

Bevacizumab in combination with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab in combination with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer based on the manufacturer’s submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. Evidence was available in the form of one phase III, multicentre, multinational, randomised, open-label study (NO16966 trial). This two-arm study was originally designed to demonstrate the non-inferiority of oral capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (XELOX) compared with 5-fluorouracil plus folinic acid plus oxaliplatin (FOLFOX)-4 in adult patients with histologically confirmed metastatic colorectal cancer who had not previously been treated. Following randomisation of 634 patients, the open-label study was amended to include a 2 × 2 factorial randomised (partially blinded for bevacizumab) phase III trial with the coprimary objective of demonstrating superiority of bevacizumab in combination with chemotherapy compared with chemotherapy alone. Measured outcomes included overall survival, progression-free survival, response rate, adverse effects of treatment and health-related quality of life. The manufacturer’s primary pooled analysis of superiority (using the intention-to-treat population) showed that after a median follow-up of 28 months, the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy significantly improved progression-free survival and overall survival compared with chemotherapy alone in adult patients with histologically confirmed metastatic colorectal cancer who were not previously treated [median progression-free survival 9.4 vs 7.7 months (absolute difference 1.7 months); hazard ratio (HR) 0.79, 97.5% confidence interval (CI) 0.72 to 0.87; p = 0.0001; median overall survival 21.2 vs 18.9 months (absolute difference 2.3 months); HR 0.83, 97.5% CI 0.74 to 0.93; p = 0.0019]. The NO16966 trial was of reasonable methodological quality and demonstrated a significant improvement in both progression-free survival and overall survival when bevacizumab was added to XELOX or FOLFOX. However, the size of the actual treatment effect of bevacizumab is uncertain. The ERG believed that the modelling structure employed was appropriate, but highlighted several key issues and areas of uncertainty. At the time of writing, NICE was yet to issue the guidance for this appraisal.

Quality of diabetes care in patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder: cross-sectional study

AIMS

To determine whether patients with severe mental illness receive poorer health care for diabetes than patients without.

METHODS

This population-based cross-sectional survey used electronic general practice records from 481 UK general practices contributing to the QRESEARCH database. The records of 11 043 patients with diabetes, drawn from a database population of over 9 million patients, were extracted. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were calculated using unconditional logistic regression for each of 17 quality indicators for diabetes care from the new General Medical Services contract for general practitioners.

RESULTS

The presence of severe mental illness did not reduce the quality of care received; the only significant difference between groups showed that such patients were more likely to have glycated haemoglobin < 7.5%[adjusted odds ratio = 1.45 (99% confidence interval 1.20-1.76)]. Increasing age was associated with better care [adjusted odds ratios from 1.06 (1.02-1.11) to 1.61 (1.52-1.70)], but other confounding variables had no consistent effect across indicators. Overall, performance against government targets was good.

CONCLUSIONS

The hypothesis of poorer diabetes care for those with severe mental illness is disproved, perhaps surprisingly, in the light of other recent UK studies showing inequalities in care for the mentally ill. The study does not reveal who is providing this good care (general practitioners, psychiatrists or diabetologists) or take account of the estimated 600 000 people in the UK with undiagnosed diabetes.

Longitudinal prevalence and determinants of early mood disorder post-stroke

BACKGROUND

Early identification of mood disorder post-stroke (MDPS) or its determinants could improve stroke outcomes. However, the natural history, prevalence and determinants of MDPS within the first weeks post-stroke require further investigation.

METHODS

Consecutive hospitalised stroke survivors were assessed within 2-5 days of stroke, and at 1 and 3 months post-stroke. Baseline data included demographics, co-morbidities, stroke subtype, pre-stroke disability and cognition. At baseline, 1- and 3-month interviews physical impairment, disability, cognition and social support were assessed. MDPS was defined as a score of >8 on the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale. Factors independently associated with MDPS at each time-point were determined using regression analyses.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-five subjects were included. The prevalence of MDPS within 5 days and at 1 and 3 months post-stroke was 5%, 16% and 21% respectively. The independent determinants for MDPS at 1 month were disability, social support and change in impairment score between initial and 1-month assessments; and at 3 months were disability, social support and institutionalisation. Individuals moved in and out of the subset of depressed patients over time. MDPS was independently associated with mortality at 3 months post-stroke.

CONCLUSION

Mood disorder post-stroke increases in prevalence over the initial weeks post-stroke despite an improvement in disability, and is associated with mortality. Patients with MDPS at 1 month were not necessarily affected at 3 months and vice versa, indicating the dynamic nature of MDPS in the early stages.

Getting teams to talk: development and pilot implementation of a checklist to promote interprofessional communication in the OR

BACKGROUND

Pilot studies of complex interventions such as a team checklist are an essential precursor to evaluating how these interventions affect quality and safety of care. We conducted a pilot implementation of a preoperative team communication checklist. The objectives of the study were to assess the feasibility of the checklist (that is, team members' willingness and ability to incorporate it into their work processes); to describe how the checklist tool was used by operating room (OR) teams; and to describe perceived functions of the checklist discussions.

METHODS

A checklist prototype was developed and OR team members were asked to implement it before 18 surgical procedures. A research assistant was present to prompt the participants, if necessary, to initiate each checklist discussion. Trained observers recorded ethnographic field notes and 11 brief feedback interviews were conducted. Observation and interview data were analyzed for trends.

RESULTS

The checklist was implemented by the OR team in all 18 study cases. The rate of team participation was 100% (33 vascular surgery team members). The checklist discussions lasted 1-6 minutes (mean 3.5) and most commonly took place in the OR before the patient's arrival. Perceived functions of the checklist discussions included provision of detailed case related information, confirmation of details, articulation of concerns or ambiguities, team building, education, and decision making. Participants consistently valued the checklist discussions. The most significant barrier to undertaking the team checklist was variability in team members' preoperative workflow patterns, which sometimes presented a challenge to bringing the entire team together.

CONCLUSIONS

The preoperative team checklist shows promise as a feasible and efficient tool that promotes information exchange and team cohesion. Further research is needed to determine the sustainability and generalizability of the checklist intervention, to fully integrate the checklist routine into workflow patterns, and to measure its impact on patient safety.

Communication failures in the operating room: an observational classification of recurrent types and effects

BACKGROUND

Ineffective team communication is frequently at the root of medical error. The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics of communication failures in the operating room (OR) and to classify their effects. This study was part of a larger project to develop a team checklist to improve communication in the OR.

METHODS

Trained observers recorded 90 hours of observation during 48 surgical procedures. Ninety four team members participated from anesthesia (16 staff, 6 fellows, 3 residents), surgery (14 staff, 8 fellows, 13 residents, 3 clerks), and nursing (31 staff). Field notes recording procedurally relevant communication events were analysed using a framework which considered the content, audience, purpose, and occasion of a communication exchange. A communication failure was defined as an event that was flawed in one or more of these dimensions.

RESULTS

421 communication events were noted, of which 129 were categorized as communication failures. Failure types included "occasion" (45.7% of instances) where timing was poor; "content" (35.7%) where information was missing or inaccurate, "purpose" (24.0%) where issues were not resolved, and "audience" (20.9%) where key individuals were excluded. 36.4% of failures resulted in visible effects on system processes including inefficiency, team tension, resource waste, workaround, delay, patient inconvenience and procedural error.

CONCLUSION

Communication failures in the OR exhibited a common set of problems. They occurred in approximately 30% of team exchanges and a third of these resulted in effects which jeopardized patient safety by increasing cognitive load, interrupting routine, and increasing tension in the OR.

Communication failures in the operating room: an observational classification of recurrent types and effects

BACKGROUND

Ineffective team communication is frequently at the root of medical error. The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics of communication failures in the operating room (OR) and to classify their effects. This study was part of a larger project to develop a team checklist to improve communication in the OR.

METHODS

Trained observers recorded 90 hours of observation during 48 surgical procedures. Ninety four team members participated from anesthesia (16 staff, 6 fellows, 3 residents), surgery (14 staff, 8 fellows, 13 residents, 3 clerks), and nursing (31 staff). Field notes recording procedurally relevant communication events were analysed using a framework which considered the content, audience, purpose, and occasion of a communication exchange. A communication failure was defined as an event that was flawed in one or more of these dimensions.

RESULTS

421 communication events were noted, of which 129 were categorized as communication failures. Failure types included "occasion" (45.7% of instances) where timing was poor; "content" (35.7%) where information was missing or inaccurate, "purpose" (24.0%) where issues were not resolved, and "audience" (20.9%) where key individuals were excluded. 36.4% of failures resulted in visible effects on system processes including inefficiency, team tension, resource waste, workaround, delay, patient inconvenience and procedural error.

CONCLUSION

Communication failures in the OR exhibited a common set of problems. They occurred in approximately 30% of team exchanges and a third of these resulted in effects which jeopardized patient safety by increasing cognitive load, interrupting routine, and increasing tension in the OR.

Verbal working memory and solvent exposure: a positron emission tomography study

Neuropsychological studies have documented frontal dysfunction in patients with a history of exposure to organic solvents. The deficits typically observed in these patients appear to be related to working memory (WM). This study used [15O] water positron emission tomography (PET) to examine the pattern of neural activation during verbal working memory in patients with a history of exposure to solvents. Six individuals with solvent exposure were compared with 6 age- and education-matched controls. On the 2 WM tasks examined with PET, with equivalent task performance, participants with solvent exposure demonstrated frontal peaks that were atypical for the tasks, whereas the posterior peaks were typical for the tasks. The results support frontal dysfunction and compensatory use within anterior regions of the WM system in patients with solvent exposure.