A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Changing patterns in the histopathology of idiopathic nephrotic syndrome in children

BACKGROUND

It is widely accepted that minimal change nephrotic syndrome (MCNS) is the most common cause of nephrosis in children. Recent studies have demonstrated an increasing incidence of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) in adults.

METHODS

To determine possible changes in the etiology of childhood nephrosis, the clinical charts of 152 pediatric patients diagnosed with idiopathic nephrotic syndrome between 1978 and 1997 were reviewed. Histopathological diagnosis was available in 105 patients.

RESULTS

MCNS was present in 35% of all biopsies, whereas FSGS was observed in 31%. Even if we assume that all patients without a histological diagnosis had MCNS (presumptive MCNS), the total incidence of MCNS (biopsy proven + presumptive) in our population was only 55%. We observed a dramatic increase in the incidence of FSGS during recent years. Before 1990, FSGS was diagnosed in 23% of all renal biopsies but increased to 47% afterward (P = 0.02). This pattern was observed in all ethnic groups. In African Americans, there was a trend for an increase in the incidence of FSGS from 38% before 1990 to 69% after 1990. A similar trend was observed in Caucasians (from 20 to 45%) and Hispanics (from 8 to 33%) Hispanics had the highest incidence of MCNS (biopsy proven + presumptive: 73%), followed by Caucasians (53%) and African Americans (37%). The mean age for presentation of nephrotic syndrome in African Americans (8.0 +/- 0.9 years) was higher than in Caucasians (4.1 +/- 0.05) and Hispanics (3.3 +/- 0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that the incidence of FSGS in children with idiopathic nephrotic syndrome has increased recently. Furthermore, in African American children. FSGS is the most common cause of nephrotic syndrome. These findings may have significant implications in the management of childhood nephrotic syndrome.