Mapping opportunities for the use of land management strategies to address fire risk in Europe

Many parts of Europe face increasing challenges managing wildfires. Although wildfire is an integral part of certain ecosystems, fires in many places are becoming larger and more intense, driven largely by climate change, land abandonment, and changes in fuel management with important socioeconomic, environmental, and ecosystem services consequences for Europe. In order to envision a comprehensive fire risk mitigation strategy for Europe, a spatial assessment of opportunities to manage fuels at the landscape-scale is needed. Our study explored the suitability of three land management strategies (LMS)-herbivory, mechanical fuel removal, and prescribed burn-which can create more heterogenous fuelscapes, thereby reducing an element of fire risk. We created suitability maps for each of the LMS using adoption factors identified in a systematic literature review (n = 123). We compared these maps with areas of historical fire occurrence as a proxy for fire risk to prioritize key areas for intervention. We found that over a quarter of Europe was suitable for multiple LMS within areas of greater fire risk, creating opportunities for concurrent and synergistic use of the strategies. Options were more limited in areas of southern Europe, where prescribed burn was found to be uniquely viable amongst the LMS evaluated. Opportunities were also restricted in some areas of high fire risk in northern Europe, where herbivory was found to be the only suitable LMS. Our findings take a wide-view of fuel management to target landscape-scale decision making focused on reducing fire risk. However, many other factors must be taken into account to successfully manage fuels at local scales, including the socio-cultural appropriateness of the LMS, the viability of incentive schemes, and possible trade-offs with other management goals, such as carbon storage and biodiversity.

Transformation of Brazil's biomes: The dynamics and fate of agriculture and pasture expansion into native vegetation

Land use and cover change (LUCC) in Brazil encompass a complex interplay of diverse factors across different biomes. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for informed decision-making and sustainable land management. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed LUCC patterns and drivers using 30 m resolution MapBiomas Collection 6.0 data (1985-2020). By mapping deforestation of primary and secondary natural vegetation, natural vegetation regeneration, and transitions between pasture, soybean, agriculture, and irrigation, we shed light on the intricate nature of LUCC in Brazil. Our findings highlight significant and increasing trends of deforestation in primary vegetation in the country. Simultaneously, the Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Pampa, and other regions of the Cerrado have experienced intensification processes. Notably, the pasture area in Brazil reached its peak in 2006 and has since witnessed a gradual replacement by soybean and other crops. While pasture-driven deforestation persists in most biomes, the net pasture area has only increased in the Amazon and Pantanal, decreasing in other biomes due to the conversion of pasturelands to intensive cropping in other regions. Our analysis further reveals that primary and secondary vegetation deforestation accounts for a substantial portion of overall forest loss, with 72 % and 17 %, respectively. Of the cleared areas, 48 % were in pasture, 9 % in soybean cultivation, and 16 % in other agricultural uses in 2020. Additionally, we observed a lower rate of deforestation in the Atlantic Forest, a biome that has been significantly influenced by anthropogenic activities since 1986. This holistic quantification of LUCC dynamics provides a solid foundation for understanding the impacts of these changes on local to continental-scale land-atmosphere interactions. By unraveling the complex nature of LUCC in Brazil, this study aims to contribute to the development of effective strategies for sustainable land management and decision-making processes.

Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation

Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

Diversification of forestry portfolios for climate change and market risk mitigation

Investments in forestry are long-term and thus subject to numerous sources of risk. In addition to the volatility from markets, forestry investments are directly exposed to future impacts from climate change. We examined how diversification of forest management regimes can mitigate the expected risks associated with forestry activities in New Zealand based on an application of Modern Portfolio Theory. Uncertainties in the responses of Pinus radiata (D. Don) productivity to climate change, from 2050 to 2090, were simulated with 3-PG, a process-based forest growth model, based on future climate scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Future timber market scenarios were based on RCP-specific projections from the Global Timber Model and historical log grade prices. Outputs from 3-PG and the market scenarios were combined to compute annualized forestry returns for four P. radiata regimes for 2050-2090. This information was then used to construct optimal forestry portfolios that minimize investment risk for a given target return under different RCPs, forest productivity and market scenarios. While current P. radiata regimes in New Zealand are largely homogenous, our results suggest that regime diversification can mitigate future risks imposed by climate change and market uncertainty. Nevertheless, optimal portfolio compositions varied substantially across our range of scenarios and portfolio objectives. The application of this framework can help forest managers to better account for future risks in their management decisions.

The Forest Observation System, building a global reference dataset for remote sensing of forest biomass

Forest biomass is an essential indicator for monitoring the Earth's ecosystems and climate. It is a critical input to greenhouse gas accounting, estimation of carbon losses and forest degradation, assessment of renewable energy potential, and for developing climate change mitigation policies such as REDD+, among others. Wall-to-wall mapping of aboveground biomass (AGB) is now possible with satellite remote sensing (RS). However, RS methods require extant, up-to-date, reliable, representative and comparable in situ data for calibration and validation. Here, we present the Forest Observation System (FOS) initiative, an international cooperation to establish and maintain a global in situ forest biomass database. AGB and canopy height estimates with their associated uncertainties are derived at a 0.25 ha scale from field measurements made in permanent research plots across the world's forests. All plot estimates are geolocated and have a size that allows for direct comparison with many RS measurements. The FOS offers the potential to improve the accuracy of RS-based biomass products while developing new synergies between the RS and ground-based ecosystem research communities.