World population stabilization unlikely this century

The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.

Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia

The two main data sources for the estimation of total fertility in Mongolia give figures that differ by between one-half and one child per woman. We investigated two possible explanations for these discrepancies: (i) that data on births collected in the vital registration system are incomplete and under-estimate fertility; and (ii) that fertility is over-estimated when estimates are based on data from sample surveys. We find that the under-counting of single women is the main source of the discrepancies. After adjustment, survey-based fertility estimates are very close to the figures based on data from the vital registration system. The analysis underscores the risks of taking survey-based demographic indicators as the 'Gold Standard'. Demographers need to undertake more systematic studies on this important issue.

Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment

Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on 'best-guess' estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. As noted in several existing studies, Tibetan fertility in China then declined swiftly from the early 1980s onwards and has now reached values close to replacement level. Focusing on the 1950-70 period, I examine factors that contributed to shaping the Tibetan fertility increase in more detail. This confirms that changes in nuptiality and disease-related infertility both played a role in pushing up fertility rates among Tibetan women in China.

The Global Adolescent Fertility Decline is Counteracted by Increasing Teen Births in Sub-Saharan Africa

There is a lack of understanding of the persistence of elevated teen fertility rates in certain regions and countries, in contrast to the significant decline observed in other regions globally. This report considers fertility trends among 15- to 19-year olds in the period 1950-2020 and explores potential driving factors behind the significant shifts that occurred over this period. The countries where teen fertility remains high are those with fast-growing populations, primarily located in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries with higher teen fertility are typically characterized by limited use of modern contraception, lower education levels, and early marriage. Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the world region with the most teen births, increasing its proportion of global teen births from 12 percent in 1950 to 47 percent in 2020, a time during which this region's share of the global adolescent (15-19) population grew from 7.5 percent to 19 percent. By 2035, 67 percent of all teen births globally are projected to occur in this region. Consequently, the future number of births to teenage mothers will to a large extent depend on the development in sub-Saharan Africa over the coming decades.