[Approaches used for assessment of the burden of advanced schistosomiasis japonica: a comparative study]

OBJECTIVE

To compare the approaches used for the assessment of disability adjust life years (DALYs) for advanced schistosomiasis japonica, so as to provide scientific evidence for accurate assessment of the burden of advanced schistosomiasis japonica.

METHODS

The patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica receiving treatment and assistance programs in Hunan Province in 2017 were enrolled, and the years lived with disability (YLD) for the patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica was calculated using the common global burden of disease (GBD) estimation method, the modified GBD method with addition of common syndromes of advanced schistosomiasis japonica, and the quality of life assessment method.

RESULTS

The YLDs of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica, the mean YLDs per capita, and the percentages of YLD were 673.94, 728.77 person-years and 1 761.99 person-years; 0.181, 0.196 person-years and 0.474 person-years; and 10.61, 11.48 person-years per 100 thousand persons and 27.75 person-years per 100 thousand persons with the common GBD method, modified GBD method and the quality of life method, respectively. The YLDs of the patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica in Hunan Province estimated with the modified GBD method and the quality of life method were 8.14% and 2.61 times higher than that with the common GBD method. Of the major symptoms included in the calculation, the 5 symptoms with the greatest contribution to the burden of advanced schistosomiasis japonica included ascites, moderate anemia, severe anemia, diarrhea and hematochezia.

CONCLUSIONS

The quality of life method may more comprehensively assess the YLDs in patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica than the common and modified GBD methods.

[Study on the ARIMA model application to predict echinococcosis cases in China]

OBJECTIVE

To predict the monthly reported echinococcosis cases in China with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of echinococcosis.

METHODS

SPSS 24.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA models based on the monthly reported echinococcosis cases of time series from 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2014, respectively, and the accuracies of the two ARIMA models were compared.

RESULTS

The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2015 was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)₁₂, the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was -13.97%, AR (1) = 0.367 (t = 3.816, P < 0.001), SAR (1) = -0.328 (t = -3.361, P = 0.001), and Ljung-Box Q = 14.119 (df = 16, P = 0.590) . The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2014 was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1)₁₂, the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was 0.56%, AR (1) = 0.413 (t = 4.244, P < 0.001), SAR (1) = 0.809 (t = 9.584, P < 0.001), SMA (1) = 0.356 (t = 2.278, P = 0.025), and Ljung-Box Q = 18.924 (df = 15, P = 0.217).

CONCLUSIONS

The different time series may have different ARIMA models as for the same infectious diseases. It is needed to be further verified that the more data are accumulated, the shorter time of predication is, and the smaller the average of the relative error is. The establishment and prediction of an ARIMA model is a dynamic process that needs to be adjusted and optimized continuously according to the accumulated data, meantime, we should give full consideration to the intensity of the work related to infectious diseases reported (such as disease census and special investigation).

[Prevalence of Entamoeba histolytica infection and its risk factors in Tengchong City, Yunnan Provine: a hospital-based study]

OBJECTIVE

To understand the infection status and risk factors of Entamoeba histolytica in inpatients in Tengchong City, Yunnan Province.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in the inpatients in Tengchong People's Hospital, Yunnan Province. After obtaining the informed consent from the subjects, the stool samples were collected from 2016-07-01 to 2017-03-31, and nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to detect E. histolytica in the stool samples. Meanwhile, a structured questionnaire was used to record the demographic information and clinical symptoms for the patients.

RESULTS

Totally 507 cases were recruited, and the detection rate of E. histolytica was 1.97% (10/507, 95% CI: 1.07%-3.59%) in all subjects. There were no significant differences between the inpatients with and without E. histolytica infection in the height (Z = -0.40, P = 0.69), weight (Z = -0.34, P = 0.73), body mass index (Z = -0.40, P = 0.69) and age (Z = -1.48, P = 0.14). Chronic diarrhea (OR = 21.43, 95% CI: 5.04-91.23) and daily drinking water (OR = 11.28, 95% CI: 2.79-45.56) were relevant to E. histolytica infection. No significant association was observed between E. histolytica infection and the clinical symptoms, such as abdominal distension (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.09-5.56), inappetence (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.06-4.02), itchy skin (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.10-6.38), perianal pruritus (OR = 1.74, 95% CI: 0.21-14.07), and constipation (OR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.13-7.33).

CONCLUSIONS

E. histolytica infection is high in inpatients in Tengchong City, Yunnan Province, and chronic diarrhea and drinking unboiled water were highly correlated with E. histolytica infection.