Haemostatic function and ischaemic heart disease: principal results of the Northwick Park Heart Study

The Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHS) has investigated the thrombotic component of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) by the inclusion of measures of haemostatic function. Among 1511 white men aged between 40 and 64 at the time of recruitment, 109 subsequently experienced first major events of IHD. High levels of factor VII coagulant activity and of plasma fibrinogen were associated with increased risk, especially for events occurring within 5 years of recruitment. These associations seemed to be stronger than for cholesterol, elevations of one standard deviation in factor VII activity, fibrinogen, and cholesterol being associated with increases in the risk of an episode of IHD within 5 years of 62%, 84%, and 43% respectively. Multiple regression analyses indicated independent associations between each of the clotting factor measures and IHD but not between the blood cholesterol level and IHD incidence. The risk of IHD in those with high fibrinogen levels was greater in younger than in older men. Much of the association between smoking and IHD may be mediated through the plasma fibrinogen level. The biochemical disturbance leading to IHD may lie at least as much in the coagulation system as in the metabolism of cholesterol.

Effect of daily aspirin on long-term risk of death due to cancer: analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Treatment with daily aspirin for 5 years or longer reduces subsequent risk of colorectal cancer. Several lines of evidence suggest that aspirin might also reduce risk of other cancers, particularly of the gastrointestinal tract, but proof in man is lacking. We studied deaths due to cancer during and after randomised trials of daily aspirin versus control done originally for prevention of vascular events.

METHODS

We used individual patient data from all randomised trials of daily aspirin versus no aspirin with mean duration of scheduled trial treatment of 4 years or longer to determine the effect of allocation to aspirin on risk of cancer death in relation to scheduled duration of trial treatment for gastrointestinal and non-gastrointestinal cancers. In three large UK trials, long-term post-trial follow-up of individual patients was obtained from death certificates and cancer registries.

RESULTS

In eight eligible trials (25 570 patients, 674 cancer deaths), allocation to aspirin reduced death due to cancer (pooled odds ratio [OR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·68-0·92, p=0·003). On analysis of individual patient data, which were available from seven trials (23 535 patients, 657 cancer deaths), benefit was apparent only after 5 years' follow-up (all cancers, hazard ratio [HR] 0·66, 0·50-0·87; gastrointestinal cancers, 0·46, 0·27-0·77; both p=0·003). The 20-year risk of cancer death (1634 deaths in 12 659 patients in three trials) remained lower in the aspirin groups than in the control groups (all solid cancers, HR 0·80, 0·72-0·88, p<0·0001; gastrointestinal cancers, 0·65, 0·54-0·78, p<0·0001), and benefit increased (interaction p=0·01) with scheduled duration of trial treatment (≥7·5 years: all solid cancers, 0·69, 0·54-0·88, p=0·003; gastrointestinal cancers, 0·41, 0·26-0·66, p=0·0001). The latent period before an effect on deaths was about 5 years for oesophageal, pancreatic, brain, and lung cancer, but was more delayed for stomach, colorectal, and prostate cancer. For lung and oesophageal cancer, benefit was confined to adenocarcinomas, and the overall effect on 20-year risk of cancer death was greatest for adenocarcinomas (HR 0·66, 0·56-0·77, p<0·0001). Benefit was unrelated to aspirin dose (75 mg upwards), sex, or smoking, but increased with age-the absolute reduction in 20-year risk of cancer death reaching 7·08% (2·42-11·74) at age 65 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Daily aspirin reduced deaths due to several common cancers during and after the trials. Benefit increased with duration of treatment and was consistent across the different study populations. These findings have implications for guidelines on use of aspirin and for understanding of carcinogenesis and its susceptibility to drug intervention.

FUNDING

None.

Long-term effect of aspirin on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: 20-year follow-up of five randomised trials

BACKGROUND

High-dose aspirin (≥500 mg daily) reduces long-term incidence of colorectal cancer, but adverse effects might limit its potential for long-term prevention. The long-term effectiveness of lower doses (75-300 mg daily) is unknown. We assessed the effects of aspirin on incidence and mortality due to colorectal cancer in relation to dose, duration of treatment, and site of tumour.

METHODS

We followed up four randomised trials of aspirin versus control in primary (Thrombosis Prevention Trial, British Doctors Aspirin Trial) and secondary (Swedish Aspirin Low Dose Trial, UK-TIA Aspirin Trial) prevention of vascular events and one trial of different doses of aspirin (Dutch TIA Aspirin Trial) and established the effect of aspirin on risk of colorectal cancer over 20 years during and after the trials by analysis of pooled individual patient data.

RESULTS

In the four trials of aspirin versus control (mean duration of scheduled treatment 6·0 years), 391 (2·8%) of 14 033 patients had colorectal cancer during a median follow-up of 18·3 years. Allocation to aspirin reduced the 20-year risk of colon cancer (incidence hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 0·60-0·96, p=0·02; mortality HR 0·65, 0·48-0·88, p=0·005), but not rectal cancer (0·90, 0·63-1·30, p=0·58; 0·80, 0·50-1·28, p=0·35). Where subsite data were available, aspirin reduced risk of cancer of the proximal colon (0·45, 0·28-0·74, p=0·001; 0·34, 0·18-0·66, p=0·001), but not the distal colon (1·10, 0·73-1·64, p=0·66; 1·21, 0·66-2·24, p=0·54; for incidence difference p=0·04, for mortality difference p=0·01). However, benefit increased with scheduled duration of treatment, such that allocation to aspirin of 5 years or longer reduced risk of proximal colon cancer by about 70% (0·35, 0·20-0·63; 0·24, 0·11-0·52; both p<0·0001) and also reduced risk of rectal cancer (0·58, 0·36-0·92, p=0·02; 0·47, 0·26-0·87, p=0·01). There was no increase in benefit at doses of aspirin greater than 75 mg daily, with an absolute reduction of 1·76% (0·61-2·91; p=0·001) in 20-year risk of any fatal colorectal cancer after 5-years scheduled treatment with 75-300 mg daily. However, risk of fatal colorectal cancer was higher on 30 mg versus 283 mg daily on long-term follow-up of the Dutch TIA trial (odds ratio 2·02, 0·70-6·05, p=0·15).

INTERPRETATION

Aspirin taken for several years at doses of at least 75 mg daily reduced long-term incidence and mortality due to colorectal cancer. Benefit was greatest for cancers of the proximal colon, which are not otherwise prevented effectively by screening with sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy.

FUNDING

None.

C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction

BACKGROUND

There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen.

RESULTS

The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Effect of daily aspirin on risk of cancer metastasis: a study of incident cancers during randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Daily aspirin reduces the long-term incidence of some adenocarcinomas, but effects on mortality due to some cancers appear after only a few years, suggesting that it might also reduce growth or metastasis. We established the frequency of distant metastasis in patients who developed cancer during trials of daily aspirin versus control.

METHODS

Our analysis included all five large randomised trials of daily aspirin (≥75 mg daily) versus control for the prevention of vascular events in the UK. Electronic and paper records were reviewed for all patients with incident cancer. The effect of aspirin on risk of metastases at presentation or on subsequent follow-up (including post-trial follow-up of in-trial cancers) was stratified by tumour histology (adenocarcinoma vs other) and clinical characteristics.

FINDINGS

Of 17,285 trial participants, 987 had a new solid cancer diagnosed during mean in-trial follow-up of 6·5 years (SD 2·0). Allocation to aspirin reduced risk of cancer with distant metastasis (all cancers, hazard ratio [HR] 0·64, 95% CI 0·48-0·84, p=0·001; adenocarcinoma, HR 0·54, 95% CI 0·38-0·77, p=0·0007; other solid cancers, HR 0·82, 95% CI 0·53-1·28, p=0·39), due mainly to a reduction in proportion of adenocarcinomas that had metastatic versus local disease (odds ratio 0·52, 95% CI 0·35-0·75, p=0·0006). Aspirin reduced risk of adenocarcinoma with metastasis at initial diagnosis (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·50-0·95, p=0·02) and risk of metastasis on subsequent follow-up in patients without metastasis initially (HR 0·45, 95% CI 0·28-0·72, p=0·0009), particularly in patients with colorectal cancer (HR 0·26, 95% CI 0·11-0·57, p=0·0008) and in patients who remained on trial treatment up to or after diagnosis (HR 0·31, 95% CI 0·15-0·62, p=0·0009). Allocation to aspirin reduced death due to cancer in patients who developed adenocarcinoma, particularly in those without metastasis at diagnosis (HR 0·50, 95% CI 0·34-0·74, p=0·0006). Consequently, aspirin reduced the overall risk of fatal adenocarcinoma in the trial populations (HR 0·65, 95% CI 0·53-0·82, p=0·0002), but not the risk of other fatal cancers (HR 1·06, 95% CI 0·84-1·32, p=0·64; difference, p=0·003). Effects were independent of age and sex, but absolute benefit was greatest in smokers. A low-dose, slow-release formulation of aspirin designed to inhibit platelets but to have little systemic bioavailability was as effective as higher doses.

INTERPRETATION

That aspirin prevents distant metastasis could account for the early reduction in cancer deaths in trials of daily aspirin versus control. This finding suggests that aspirin might help in treatment of some cancers and provides proof of principle for pharmacological intervention specifically to prevent distant metastasis.

FUNDING

None.

Prevalence of urinary incontinence

The prevalence of urinary incontinence was investigated by determining the number of incontinent patients under the care of various health and social service agencies in two London boroughs and by a postal survey of the 22 430 people aged 5 years and over on the practice lists of 12 general practitioners in different parts of the country. The prevalence of incontinence known to the health and social service agencies was 0.2% in women and 0.1% in men aged 15-64 and 2.5% in women and 1.3% in men aged 65 and over. The postal survey, to which 89% of the people whose correct address was known replied, showed a prevalence of urinary incontinence of 8.5% in women and 1.6% in men aged 15-64 and 11.6% in women and 6.9% in men aged 65 and over. Nulliparous women had a lower prevalence than those who had had one, two, or three babies, but within the parity range of one to three there were no differences in prevalence. The prevalence was appreciably increased in women who had had four or more babies. Incontinence was moderate or severe in a fifth of those who reported it in the postal survey, of whom less than a third were receiving health or social services for the condition. Incontinence is a common symptom, and many unrecognised cases appear to exist. There may be considerable scope for improving its management.

Respiratory viruses, symptoms, and inflammatory markers in acute exacerbations and stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

The effects of respiratory viral infection on the time course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation were examined by monitoring changes in systemic inflammatory markers in stable COPD and at exacerbation. Eighty-three patients with COPD (mean [SD] age, 66.6 [7.1] yr, FEV(1), 1.06 [0.61] L) recorded daily peak expiratory flow rate and any increases in respiratory symptoms. Nasal samples and blood were taken for respiratory virus detection by culture, polymerase chain reaction, and serology, and plasma fibrinogen and serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) were determined at stable baseline and exacerbation. Sixty-four percent of exacerbations were associated with a cold occurring up to 18 d before exacerbation. Seventy-seven viruses (39 [58.2%] rhinoviruses) were detected in 66 (39.2%) of 168 COPD exacerbations in 53 (64%) patients. Viral exacerbations were associated with frequent exacerbators, colds with increased dyspnea, a higher total symptom count at presentation, a longer median symptom recovery period of 13 d, and a tendency toward higher plasma fibrinogen and serum IL-6 levels. Non-respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) respiratory viruses were detected in 11 (16%), and RSV in 16 (23.5%), of 68 stable COPD patients, with RSV detection associated with higher inflammatory marker levels. Respiratory virus infections are associated with more severe and frequent exacerbations, and may cause chronic infection in COPD. Prevention and early treatment of viral infections may lead to a decreased exacerbation frequency and morbidity associated with COPD.

SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

AIMS

The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Short-term effects of daily aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality, and non-vascular death: analysis of the time course of risks and benefits in 51 randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Daily aspirin reduces the long-term risk of death due to cancer. However, the short-term effect is less certain, especially in women, effects on cancer incidence are largely unknown, and the time course of risk and benefit in primary prevention is unclear. We studied cancer deaths in all trials of daily aspirin versus control and the time course of effects of low-dose aspirin on cancer incidence and other outcomes in trials in primary prevention.

METHODS

We studied individual patient data from randomised trials of daily aspirin versus no aspirin in prevention of vascular events. Death due to cancer, all non-vascular death, vascular death, and all deaths were assessed in all eligible trials. In trials of low-dose aspirin in primary prevention, we also established the time course of effects on incident cancer, major vascular events, and major extracranial bleeds, with stratification by age, sex, and smoking status.

RESULTS

Allocation to aspirin reduced cancer deaths (562 vs 664 deaths; odds ratio [OR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·76-0·96, p=0·008; 34 trials, 69,224 participants), particularly from 5 years onwards (92 vs 145; OR 0·63, 95% CI 0·49-0·82, p=0·0005), resulting in fewer non-vascular deaths overall (1021 vs 1173; OR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78-0·96, p=0·003; 51 trials, 77,549 participants). In trials in primary prevention, the reduction in non-vascular deaths accounted for 87 (91%) of 96 deaths prevented. In six trials of daily low-dose aspirin in primary prevention (35,535 participants), aspirin reduced cancer incidence from 3 years onwards (324 vs 421 cases; OR 0·76, 95% CI 0·66-0·88, p=0·0003) in women (132 vs 176; OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·59-0·94, p=0·01) and in men (192 vs 245; OR 0·77, 95% CI 0·63-0·93, p=0·008). The reduced risk of major vascular events on aspirin was initially offset by an increased risk of major bleeding, but effects on both outcomes diminished with increasing follow-up, leaving only the reduced risk of cancer (absolute reduction 3·13 [95% CI 1·44-4·82] per 1000 patients per year) from 3 years onwards. Case-fatality from major extracranial bleeds was also lower on aspirin than on control (8/203 vs 15/132; OR 0·32, 95% CI 0·12-0·83, p=0·009).

INTERPRETATION

Alongside the previously reported reduction by aspirin of the long-term risk of cancer death, the short-term reductions in cancer incidence and mortality and the decrease in risk of major extracranial bleeds with extended use, and their low case-fatality, add to the case for daily aspirin in prevention of cancer.

FUNDING

None.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality

IMPORTANCE

The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.

EXPOSURES

A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.

RESULTS

In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies

BACKGROUND

Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling.

METHODS

In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125,222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51,441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136,226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6.

FINDINGS

The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele ≥0·04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34·3% (95% CI 30·4-38·2) and of interleukin 6 by 14·6% (10·7-18·4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7·5% (5·9-9·1) and of fibrinogen by 1·0% (0·7-1·3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3·4% (1·8-5·0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes.

INTERPRETATION

Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; UK National Institute of Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; BUPA Foundation.

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND

To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.

METHODS

In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.

FINDINGS

Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.

INTERPRETATION

We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.

FUNDING

World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators.

STUDY SELECTION

All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION

Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

Haemostatic function and cardiovascular death: early results of a prospective study

Components of the haemostatic system which may be involved in the pathogenesis of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) were measured in the Northwick Park Heart Study. Of 1510 white men aged 40-64 at recruitment, 49 have since died. 27 died from cardiovascular disease (IHD in all but 3), 18 from cancer, and 4 from other causes. The mean recruitment levels of factor VIIc, factor VIIIc, and fibrinogen were significantly higher in those who died of cardiovascular disease than in those who survived. The independent associations of factor VIIc and fibrinogen with cardiovascular death were at least as strong as the association of blood cholesterol with cardiovascular death. A clustering of two or three high clotting-factor values (factor VIIc, factor VIIIc, and fibrinogen) was present at recruitment in 63% of those who died of cardiovascular disease, compared with 23% of those who survived. The clotting-factor results appeared to be specific for cardiovascular disease: there was no evidence that high levels of factor VIIc, factor VIIIc, and fibrinogen were associated with death from cancer. The general epidemiology of factor VIIc, factor VIIIc, and fibrinogen is consistent with their having a role in the pathogenesis of IHD.

Fibrinolytic activity, clotting factors, and long-term incidence of ischaemic heart disease in the Northwick Park Heart Study

Fibrinolytic activity (FA) was measured by dilute blood clot lysis time at entry to the Northwick Park Heart Study in 1382 white men aged 40-64, of whom 179 subsequently experienced episodes of ischaemic heart disease during a mean follow-up period of 16.1 years. There was a significant interaction between age and low FA (p = 0.02) with respect to ischaemic heart disease: a difference of one standard deviation in FA was associated with a difference of about 40% in ischaemic heart disease risk (p = 0.002) in those aged 40-54 at entry. The FA association remained after adjusting for plasma fibrinogen. High fibrinogen concentrations themselves were also associated with ischaemic heart disease, as was high factor VII activity with fatal events. Low FA in younger men may exert a long-term influence by impairing the removal of fibrin deposits that contribute to atherogenesis. Low FA appears to be a leading determinant of ischaemic heart disease in younger men and methods of enhancing fibrinolytic activity, whether by life-style changes or pharmacologically, should be considered.

Seasonal variations of plasma fibrinogen and factor VII activity in the elderly: winter infections and death from cardiovascular disease

There are approximately 20,000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease each winter in England and Wales. The reasons for the excess have not been fully elucidated. For one year, we studied 96 men and women aged 65-74 living in their own homes in order to examine seasonal variation in plasma fibrinogen and factor VII clotting activity (FVIIc), and to investigate relationships with infection and other cardiovascular-disease risk factors. Both fibrinogen and FVIIc plasma values were greater in winter with estimated winter-summer differences (confidence intervals) of 0.13 (0.05-0.20) g/L for fibrinogen and 4.2 (1.2-7.1)% of standard for FVIIc. These differences could account for 15% and 9% increases in ischaemic heart disease risk in winter respectively. After adjustment for confounding by season, fibrinogen was strongly related to neutrophil count (p < 0.0001), C-reactive protein (p < 0.0001), alpha 1-antichymotrypsin (p < 0.0001), and self-reported cough (p < 0.0001) and coryza (p = 0.0004), but not to ambient temperature. Therefore, we suggest that seasonal variation in fibrinogen might be induced by winter respiratory infections via activation of the acute phase response. Seasonal variations in the cardiovascular risk factors fibrinogen and FVIIc provide further possible explanations for the marked seasonal variation in death from ischaemic heart disease and stroke in the elderly.

Fetal and infant growth and cardiovascular risk factors in women

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether cardiovascular risk factors in women are related to fetal and infant growth.

DESIGN

Follow up study of women born 1923-30 whose birth weights and weights at one year were recorded.

SETTING

Hertfordshire.

SUBJECTS

297 women born and still living in East Hertfordshire.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during a standard oral glucose tolerance test; fasting plasma proinsulin and 32-33 split proinsulin concentrations; blood pressure; fasting serum total, low density lipoprotein and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and apolipoprotein A I and B concentrations; and plasma fibrinogen and factor VII concentrations.

RESULTS

Fasting plasma concentrations of glucose, insulin, and 32-33 split proinsulin fell with increasing birth weight (P = 0.04, P = 0.002, and P = 0.0002 respectively, when current body mass index was allowed for). Glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after an oral glucose load showed similar trends (P = 0.03 and P = 0.02). Systolic blood pressure, waist:hip ratio, and serum triglyceride concentrations also fell with increasing birth weight (P = 0.08, P = 0.07, and P = 0.07 respectively), while serum high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations rose (P = 0.04). At each birth weight women who currently had a higher body mass index had higher levels of risk factors.

CONCLUSION

In women, as in men, reduced fetal growth leads to insulin resistance and the associated disorders: raised blood pressure and high serum triglyceride and low serum high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. The highest values of these coronary risk factors occur in people who were small at birth and became obese. In contrast with men, low rates of infant growth did not predict levels of risk factors in women.

Characteristics affecting fibrinolytic activity and plasma fibrinogen concentrations

As part of a study to determine the extent to which the haemostatic system is implicated in the onset of clinically manifest ischaemic heart disease, characteristics influencing fibrinolytic activity (FA) and plasma fibrinogen concentrations were examined in 1601 men aged 18-64 and 707 women aged 18-59 in several occupational groups in North-west London. In men FA noticeably decreased till the age of about 58, when there was a small rise. In women a small increase in FA between 18 and about 40 was followed by a slightly larger fall between 40 and 59. There was a pronounced negative association of FA with obesity. FA was significantly less in smokers than non-smokers, though the effect was not large. FA increased with alcohol consumption. FA in men appeared to be greatest in the lower social classes, and men on night shift had poorer FA than those on day work. FA was greater in women using oral contraceptives than in those not using these preparations. In both sexes FA increased with exercise, but there were no associations between any of the characteristics studied and the increase. Plasma fibrinogen concentrations increase with age and obesity, are higher in smokers than non-smokers, and fall with alcohol consumption. In women the concentrations are higher in those using oral contraceptives. The general epidemiology of FA and plasma fibrinogen concentrations suggests that they may well be implicated in the pathogenesis of ischaemic heart disease.

Effects of changes in smoking and other characteristics on clotting factors and the risk of ischaemic heart disease

The Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHS) has demonstrated associations of high levels of factor VII coagulant activity (VIIc) and of plasma fibrinogen concentration with the risk of subsequent ischaemic heart disease (IHD). In cross-sectional data from the 2023 white men in NPHS, lifetime duration of smoking was a determinant of initial plasma fibrinogen levels. Fibrinogen levels had apparently begun to fall soon after smoking was discontinued but it was over 5 years before they had returned to levels found in life-long non-smokers. In prospective data, smoking cessation and the adoption or resumption of smoking were associated with a decrease or an increase, respectively, of about 0.15 g/l in plasma fibrinogen. These changes would lower or raise the risk of IHD by about 20%. A switch from cigarettes to cigars was associated with a large increase in fibrinogen. A substantial part of the relation between smoking and IHD appears to be mediated through the fibrinogen concentration. Following changes in body mass, VIIc rose in those who had given up smoking and fell in those who resumed.

Low back pain of mechanical origin: randomised comparison of chiropractic and hospital outpatient treatment

OBJECTIVE

To compare chiropractic and hospital outpatient treatment for managing low back pain of mechanical origin.

DESIGN

Randomised controlled trial. Allocation to chiropractic or hospital management by minimisation to establish groups for analysis of results according to initial referral clinic, length of current episode, history, and severity of back pain. Patients were followed up for up two years.

SETTING

Chiropractic and hospital outpatient clinics in 11 centres.

PATIENTS

741 Patients aged 18-65 who had no contraindications to manipulation and who had not been treated within the past month.

INTERVENTIONS

Treatment at the discretion of the chiropractors, who used chiropractic manipulation in most patients, or of the hospital staff, who most commonly used Maitland mobilisation or manipulation, or both.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in the score on the Oswestry pain disability questionnaire and in the results of tests of straight leg raising and lumbar flexion.

RESULTS

Chiropractic treatment was more effective than hospital outpatient management, mainly for patients with chronic or severe back pain. A benefit of about 7% points on the Oswestry scale was seen at two years. The benefit of chiropractic treatment became more evident throughout the follow up period. Secondary outcome measures also showed that chiropractic was more beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with low back pain in whom manipulation is not contraindicated chiropractic almost certainly confers worthwhile, long term benefit in comparison with hospital outpatient management. The benefit is seen mainly in those with chronic or severe pain. Introducing chiropractic into NHS practice should be considered.

Haemostasis in Normal Pregnancy

A study has been undertaken in 72 women to provide systematic information on the changes that occur in a wide range of haemostatic variables during and after pregnancy. Factors VII, VIII :C, VIIIR:Ag, X, fibrinogen and α1 antitrypsin, rose markedly throughout pregnancy. Factors II and V and α2 macroglobulin all rose early on but then decreased steadily. Antithrombin III: C and Ag fell slightly. There was a marked decrease in fibrinolytic activity from 11-15 weeks onwards. Levels of fibrin degradation products rose from 21-25 weeks onwards. The rise in coagulation factors that occurs could be due to increased synthesis or increased activation by thrombin, or to both. The findings are consistent with a mild degree of local intravascular coagulation from early on in pregnancy in some women.

Faecal bile-acids and clostridia in patients with cancer of the large bowel

Of 44 patients with cancer of the large bowel, 36 ( 82%) had high faecal bile-acid concentrations compared with only 15 (17%) out of 90 patients with other diseases. 31 (70%) of the 44 patients with large-bowel cancer had high faecal bile-acid concentrations in the presence of faecal clostridia able to dehydrogenate the bile-acid nucleus, compared with only 8 (9%) out of 90 patients with other diseases. Thes findings support the hypothesis that cancer of the large bowel is caused by high concentrations of bile-acid derivatives produced by certain anaerobic bacteria.

Progestogens and cardiovascular reactions associated with oral contraceptives and a comparison of the safety of 50- and 30-microgram oestrogen preparations

Progestogens probably have metabolic effects that may contribute to the increased risk of cardiovascular reactions associated with combined oestrogen-progestogen oral contraceptives. This possibility was investigated by a study of nearly 2000 reports to the Committee on Safety of Medicines from 1964 to 1977. The reports concerned preparations in which norethisterone acetate in doses of 1.0, 2.5, 3.0, or 4.0 mg was combined with 50 microgram of ethinyloestradiol and those in which levonorgestrel in doses of 150 or 250 microgram was combined with 30 microgram of ethinyloestradiol. Observed and expected numbers of reports were compared, using retail pharmacy purchase figures as a measure of the use of different preparations. There was a significant positive association between the dose of norethisterone acetate and deaths from stroke and ischaemic heart disease (IHD); this association was also found for all cases of these two conditions, fatal plus non-fatal. There were no associations of dose of norethisterone acetate with hypertension or venous thrombosis. The higher dose of levonorgestrel was associated with a possible excess of deaths, non-venous plus venous, and an excess of strokes. There was no association between dose of levonorgestrel and hypertension or venous thrombosis. The reports were also used to assess the relative safety of 30-microgram and 50-microgram oestrogen preparations. Those with 30 microgram of oestrogen were associated with significantly fewer reports of death and IHD (both fatal, and fatal plus non-fatal) than those with 50 microgram of oestrogen. In view of the large-scale move towards preparations with progressively lower oestrogen doses, there are no grounds for major changes in oral contraceptive practice. Within the range of preparations currently in use, however, there is a case for minimising the dose of progestogen to reduce the chances of thromboembolism.

Epidemiological characteristics of platelet aggregability

The epidemiological characteristics of platelet aggregability were established in 958 participants in the Northwick Park Heart Study. The main analyses were based on the dose of adenosine diphosphate at which primary aggregation occurred at half its maximum velocity. Aggregability increased with age in both sexes, was greater in whites than blacks (particularly among men), and tended to decrease with the level of habitual alcohol consumption. Aggregability was, however, greater in women than men and in nonsmokers than smokers. There was no relation between aggregability on the one hand and obesity, current or past oral contraceptive use, menopausal state, or blood cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations on the other. Aggregability was somewhat, though not significantly, higher in men with a history of ischaemic heart disease and in those with electrocardiographic evidence of ischaemia than in those without. There was a strong association between the plasma fibrinogen concentration and aggregability. The widely held concept of platelet aggregability and its implications is probably an oversimplification. In the prevention of thrombosis it may be as useful to consider modifying external influences on platelet behaviour, such as plasma fibrinogen concentration or thrombin production, as it is to rely solely on platelet active agents.

Hypertriglyceridaemia and hypercoagulability

18 patients with severe hypertriglyceridaemia (mean fasting plasma triglyceride 5.7 mmol/l) had significantly higher concentrations of plasma fibrinogen and clotting factor Xc than did a normolipidaemic comparison group. Fibrinolytic activity was significantly lower in the hyperlipidaemic patients. Six months of treatment (diet or diet and clofibrate) lowered the patients mean plasma triglyceride to 3.1 mmol/l and caused a fall of clotting factors VIIc and Xc and a significant rise in fibrinolytic activity. None of these variables changed in the comparison group. Raised fibrinogen and factor VIIc concentrations are risk factors for cardiovascular mortality, and raised factor Xc and lowered fibrinolytic activity have both been found in groups at high risk of ischaemic heart-disease. Despite the fact that in population studies triglycerides do not consistently appear to be an independent risk factor for ischaemic heart disease, these data suggest that a pronounced increase in triglycerides warrants energetic therapy because it may be associated with a "hypercoagulable state".