Development and internal validation of the multivariable CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) clinical risk prediction model

Background

Intensive care unit (ICU) outcome prediction models, such as Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), were designed in general critical care populations and their use in obstetric populations is contentious. The aim of the CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) study was to develop and internally validate a multivariable prognostic model calibrated specifically for pregnant or recently delivered women admitted for critical care.

Methods

A retrospective observational cohort was created for this study from 13 tertiary facilities across five high-income and six low- or middle-income countries. Women admitted to an ICU for more than 24 h during pregnancy or less than 6 weeks post-partum from 2000 to 2012 were included in the cohort. A composite primary outcome was defined as maternal death or need for organ support for more than 7 days or acute life-saving intervention. Model development involved selection of candidate predictor variables based on prior evidence of effect, availability across study sites, and use of LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) model building after multiple imputation using chained equations to address missing data for variable selection. The final model was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Internal validation was completed using bootstrapping to correct for optimism in model performance measures of discrimination and calibration.

Results

Overall, 127 out of 769 (16.5%) women experienced an adverse outcome. Predictors included in the final CIPHER model were maternal age, surgery in the preceding 24 h, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale score, serum sodium, serum potassium, activated partial thromboplastin time, arterial blood gas (ABG) pH, serum creatinine, and serum bilirubin. After internal validation, the model maintained excellent discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.84) and good calibration (slope of 0.92, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.92 and intercept of −0.11, 95% CI −0.13 to −0.08).

Conclusions

The CIPHER model has the potential to be a pragmatic risk prediction tool. CIPHER can identify critically ill pregnant women at highest risk for adverse outcomes, inform counseling of patients about risk, and facilitate bench-marking of outcomes between centers by adjusting for baseline risk.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13054-018-2215-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predictors of Mortality in Septic Shock: Findings for 57 Patients Diagnosed on Admission to Emergency or within 24 hours of Admission to Intensive Care

Objective

To identify the risk factors that influence outcome for patients who are diagnosed with septic shock in the emergency department at presentation or within 24 hours after admission to intensive care unit.

Methods

A retrospective study of 57 adult patients with septic shock was conducted between March 1, 2006 and August 31, 2009.

Results

The patients were 23 males and 34 females with a median age of 67 years (20 to 92 years). Thirty-three (58%) of 57 patients died in hospital and 24 (42%) survived. Multivariate analysis identified low blood pH (OR <0.001; 95% CI <0.001-0.53) and low bicarbonate level (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.70-0.95) at emergency department or intensive care unit admission as useful predictors of 3-day in-hospital mortality. Low blood pH (OR <0.001; 95% CI <0.001-0.05), low bicarbonate level (OR 0.75; 95% CIs 0.61-0.91), long duration of symptoms (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.04-2.13), high MEDS score (OR 1.56; 95% CIs 1.06-2.30), and high SOFA score (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.12-2.20) were risk factors for 14-day in-hospital mortality. Renal failure (OR 7.58; 95% CI 1.28-44.77), lower pulmonary tract infection (OR 3.58; 95% CI 1.10-11.58), high MEDS score (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.05-1.93) and high APACHE II score (OR 1.34; 95% CI 1.13-1.60) were risk factors for 28-day in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions

Several factors signaling poor short-term outcome for this patient group are low blood pH, low serum bicarbonate level, longer duration of symptoms, lower respiratory tract infection and renal failure. MEDS and SOFA scores might be helpful in the ED to stratify patients with septic shock according to mortality risk.

Assessment of the effectiveness of a ventilator associated pneumonia prevention bundle that contains endotracheal tube with subglottic drainage and cuff pressure monitorization

The effectiveness of prevention bundles on the occurrence and mortality of ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) was evaluated in many studies. However, the effectiveness of endotracheal tube with subglottic secretion drainage (ETT-SD) and cuff pressure monitorization in VAP bundles have not been adequately assessed. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of VAP bundle containing ETT-SD and cuff pressure monitorization. This was a prospective, controlled study that was carried out between March 2011 and April 2012 including intubated patients. The study was conducted at the Anesthesiology Intensive Care Unit 1 and 2 (10 beds each) in a 898-bed university hospital. Occurrence of VAP and compliance with the parameters of the VAP prevention bundles were assessed daily. Patients intubated with the standard endotracheal tube were recruited as controls, mainly in the first six months of the study as ETT-SD and cuff pressure monometer had not yet been implemented. In the second term, patients intubated with ETT-SD were included as cases. Occurrence of VAP, mortality, and compliance with VAP prevention bundles were monitored. A total of 133 patients, 37 cases and 96 controls were recruited. VAP incidence declined from 40.82 to 22.16 per 1000 ventilator days among controls and cases, respectively (p<005). On average, VAP occurred 17.33±21.09 days in the case group and 10.43±7.83 days in the control group (p=0.04). However, mortality of cases and controls at the 14th and 30th days was not different. VAP prevention bundles including the utilization of ETT-SD, monitoring cuff pressure, and oral care with chlorhexidine were efficient in reducing the rate of VAP.

Is airborne transmission of Acinetobacter baumannii possible: A prospective molecular epidemiologic study in a tertiary care hospital

BACKGROUND

Understanding the dynamics of aerial spread of Acinetobacter may provide useful information for production of effective control measurements. We investigated genetic relationships between air and clinical isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii in an intensive care unit (ICU) setting.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective surveillance study in a tertiary care hospital for 8 months. A total of 186 air samples were taken from 2 ICUs. Clonal characteristics of air isolates were compared with the prospective clinical strains and the previously isolated strains of ICU patients over a 23-month period.

RESULTS

Twenty-six (11.4%) air samples yielded A baumannii, of which 24 (92.3%) isolates were carbapenem-resistant. The Acinetobacter concentration was the highest in bedside sampling areas of infected patients (0.39 CFU/m³). Air isolates were clustered in 13 genotypes, and 7 genotypes (including 18 air strains) were clonally related to the clinical strains of 9 ICU patients. One clone continued to be cultured over 27 days in ICU air, and air isolates could be clonally related to 7-week retrospective and approximately 15-week prospective clinical strains.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that infected patients could spread significant amounts of Acinetobacter to ICU air. These strains could survive in air for some weeks and could likely still infect new patients after some months. Special control measurements may be required against the airborne spread of Acinetobacter in ICUs.

Pain, fentanyl consumption, and delirium in adolescents after scoliosis surgery: dexmedetomidine vs midazolam

BACKGROUND

The study aim was to compare the efficacy of dexmedetomidine vs midazolam for sedation during the early postoperative period in adolescents who underwent scoliosis surgery.

METHODS

We performed a prospective, randomized trial in an intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary care center. In this study, 42 patients (American Society of Anesthesiology physical status I and II) who underwent scoliosis surgery were divided into two groups according to sedation protocols: group dexmedetomidine (DEX) (n = 22) and group midazolam (MDZ) (n = 20). Adolescents (12-18 years) requiring mechanical ventilation underwent a continuous infusion of either dexmedetomidine (group DEX; starting dose, 0.4 μg·kg(-1) ·h(-1)) or midazolam (group MDZ; starting dose, 0.1 mg·kg(-1) ·h(-1)) with intermittent fentanyl, as needed. The efficacy of sedation was assessed using the Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale (RASS). Quality of pain relief was measured using the Numeric Visual Analog Scale (NVAS). Delirium was determined in patients in the RASS range of -2 to +1 using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). Fentanyl consumption, incidence of delirium, NVAS scores, and hemodynamics were recorded postoperatively at 2, 4, 6, and 24 h in the ICU.

RESULTS

The NVAS pain scores and fentanyl consumption at all the evaluation time points were significantly higher in group MDZ than those in group DEX (P < 0.05). Further, total fentanyl consumption in group MDZ was significantly higher than that in group DEX (P < 0.05). Delirium was significantly higher in the group MDZ than that in group DEX (31.3% vs 12.5%) when analyzed as the endpoint of CAM-ICU (P < 0.05). The heart rate was significantly lower in group DEX compared with that in group MDZ at all the evaluation time points (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Dexmedetomidine was associated with the decreased postoperative fentanyl consumption, NVAS scores, and a decreased incidence of delirium. These findings may be beneficial for managing sedation protocols in adolescents who have undergone scoliosis surgery.

A heart transplant recipient lost due to Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia under trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis: case report

Infections in solid-organ transplant recipients are the most important causes of morbidity and mortality. A primary goal in organ transplant is the prevention or effective treatment of infection, which is the most common life-threatening complication of long-term immunosuppressive therapy. A 21-year-old woman who underwent heart transplant 3 years previous owing to dilated cardiomyopathy was referred to our hospital with symptoms of high fever and cough. The patient's history revealed that she had received a trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole double-strength tablet each day for prophylactic purposes. On chest radiograph, pneumonia was detected, and in broncho-alveolar lavage sample, Pneumocystis jiroveci cysts were found. After diagnosing P. jiroveci pneumonia, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole was initiated at 20 mg/kg/d including intravenous trimethoprim in divided dosages every 6 hours. On the sixth day of therapy, she died in intensive care unit. In solid-organ transplant recipients, although antipneumocystis prophylaxis is recommended within the first 6 to 12 months after transplant, lifelong prophylaxis is also used in several settings. In addition, the physician should keep in mind that P. jiroveci pneumonia may develop in solid organ recipients, despite trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis.

Intensive Care of a Weil’s Disease With Multiorgan Failure

Leptospirosis is a commonly encountered type of zoonosis, especially in tropical regions. There is insufficient data regarding its frequency in non-tropical regions such as Turkey. Although leptospirosis presents with a mild icteric form in nearly 90% of cases, it can lead to Weils disease characterized by fever as well as fulminant hepatorenal and respiratory failure, in approximately 5 - 10% of cases. In this case report, we present a patient with Weil's disease, complicated with multiorgan failure.

Lornoxicam and ondansetron for the prevention of intrathecal fentanyl-induced pruritus

PURPOSE

In this randomized, double-blind study, we aimed to compare the effectiveness of lornoxicam and ondansetron for the prevention of intrathecal fentanyl-induced pruritus in patients undergoing cesarean section.

METHODS

One hundred and eight parturients (American Society of Anesthesiologists [ASA] I-II status) requesting neuraxial analgesia by a combined spinal-epidural (CSE) technique were recruited for this study. A CSE technique was performed and anesthesia was achieved with fentanyl 25 microg and hyperbaric bupivacaine 12 mg. Patients were randomly allocated to three groups, each with 36 participants. Immediately following delivery, patients received either lornoxicam 8 mg IV (group L; n = 36), ondansetron 8 mg IV (group O; n = 36), or normal saline 2 ml IV (group P; n = 36). Pruritus, pain, and nausea and vomiting scores were recorded during the initial 24 h postoperatively.

RESULTS

The incidence of pruritus was significantly lower in group O from 4 to 12 h postoperatively when compared to that in group L and group P. According to the pruritus grading system we used, the number of patients without pruritus was significantly higher in group O when compared to that in group L and group P. The number of patients experiencing moderate pruritus was significantly lower in group O when compared to that in group P.

CONCLUSION

We observed that the administration of 8 mg IV lornoxicam failed to prevent intrathecal fentanyl-induced pruritus in parturients. Also, our data confirmed that ondansetron is likely to attenuate intrathecal fentanyl-induced pruritus.

Dexpanthenol pastille and benzydamine hydrochloride spray for the prevention of post-operative sore throat

BACKGROUND

In this study, we aimed to compare the effectiveness of dexpanthenol pastille and benzydamine hydrochloride spray on the prevention of a sore throat.

METHODS

One hundred and eighty patients undergoing general anaesthesia, who were ASA I-II and with their ages ranging between 15 and 70 years, were randomly allocated to three groups, each consisting of 60 patients. For group B, four puffs of benzydamine hydrochloride were sprayed into the mouth initially 30 min before the operation and repeatedly 5 min before anaesthesia induction. For group D, two pastilles of dexpanthenol were administered orally to be sucked 30 min before the operation. For group P, four puffs of distilled water were sprayed into the mouth initially 30 min before the operation. Post-operatively, patients were evaluated for a sore throat for the duration of 24 h.

RESULTS

The incidence of a sore throat was significantly lower for group D when compared with group B and group P. The incidence of a sore throat was similar for group B and group P. According to the sore throat grading system, the number of patients experiencing no complaints was significantly higher for group D when compared with group B and group P. The number of patients achieving moderate scores was significantly higher for group B when compared with group D.

CONCLUSION

The administration of 200 mg of dexpanthenol prophylactically before endotracheal intubation is effective in the prevention of post-operative sore throat.

Effects of fentanyl on the incidence of emergence agitation in children receiving desflurane or sevoflurane anaesthesia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In children, emergence agitation frequently complicates sevoflurane and desflurane anaesthesia. The effect of intravenous fentanyl 2.5 microg kg(-1) was examined on the incidence of emergence agitation in children who received desflurane or sevoflurane after midazolam premedication and intravenous thiopental induction.

METHODS

One hundred and twenty children (2-7 yr) undergoing adenoidectomy or tonsillectomy, or both, were studied. All children were premedicated orally with midazolam 0.5 mg kg(-1). After intravenous induction with thiopental and atracurium to facilitate endotracheal intubation, patients were randomly assigned to one of four groups: Patients in Groups 1 and 3 received physiological saline solution, whereas patients in Groups 2 and 4 received intravenous fentanyl 2.5 microg kg(-1) during induction. Anaesthesia was maintained with sevoflurane in Groups 1 and 2 and with desflurane in Groups 3 and 4. After discontinuation of the volatile anaesthetic, the times to tracheal extubation and response to verbal stimuli (emergence time), and emergence behaviours were recorded.

RESULTS

The time to tracheal extubation was significantly shorter in Groups 3 (5.2+/-1.7 min) and (6.4+/-2.1 min) than in Groups 1 (8.1+/-2.1 min) (P = 0.0001 and 0.006, respectively) and 2 (8.8+/-1.9 min) (P = 0.0001). The emergence time was significantly shorter in Group 3 (10.0+/-3.9 min) than in Groups 1 (13.8+/-4.9 min) (P = 0.017) and 2 (14.9+/-4.1 min) (P = 0.003). The incidence rate of severe agitation was 13% in Groups 1 and 3, and 7 and 10% in Groups 2 and 4, respectively (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

After midazolam premedication and intravenous induction of anaesthesia with thiopental administration of intravenous fentanyl 2.5 microg kg(-1) did not provide any clinically significant benefit on emer gence agitation in children who receive sevoflurane or desflurane anaesthesia.

Effects of S(+) ketamine added to bupivacaine for spinal anaesthesia for prostate surgery in elderly patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Intrathecal ketamine as the sole anaesthetic agent has demonstrated a lack of cardiovascular depression that should be of advantage in an elderly population. S(+) ketamine has three-times the analgesic potency of R(-) ketamine and its antinociceptive effects after intrathecal administration in rats are known. We decided to evaluate the effects of intrathecal S(+) ketamine added to a small dose of spinal bupivacaine in elderly patients undergoing transurethral prostate surgery.

METHODS

Forty males over 60 yr old, scheduled for transurethral prostate resection under spinal anaesthesia, were studied in a prospective, double-blinded, randomized way. Patients were allocated to receive either bupivacaine 10 mg or bupivacaine 7.5 mg combined with S(+) ketamine 0.1 mg kg(-1). Spinal block onset time, maximum sensory level, duration of blockade, haemodynamic variables, postoperative analgesic requirements and adverse events were recorded.

RESULTS

Onset times of motor and sensory block were shorter in the bupivacaine plus S(+) ketamine group. Incomplete motor block of the lower extremities was seen in 80% of the patients in bupivacaine plus S(+) ketamine group. Duration of complete motor block and spinal analgesia was shorter in the bupivacaine plus S(+) ketamine group. There was no significant difference in arterial pressure. Heart rate decreased after spinal anaesthesia in the bupivacaine plus S(+) ketamine group and was significantly lower until the end of anaesthesia. The incidence of adverse effects was not different between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Intrathecal S(+) ketamine administered with a low dose of bupivacaine provides shorter motor and sensory block onset time, shorter duration of action and less motor blockade in elderly males.

The use of magnesium to prevent laryngospasm after tonsillectomy and adenoidectomy: a preliminary study

BACKGROUND

Laryngospasm is the most common cause of upper airway obstruction after tracheal extubation. Magnesium has a central nervous system depressant property, which contributes to the depth of anaesthesia. It also has calcium antagonist properties, which provide muscle relaxation. In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of magnesium on preventing laryngospasm.

METHODS

After approval of the Ethics Committee and informed parental consent, 40 patients, ASA I-II, aged 3-12 years, who were scheduled for tonsillectomy or/and adenoidectomy, were randomly divided into two groups. Anaesthesia was induced with sevoflurane, lidocaine 1 mg x kg-1, alfentanil 10 micro g x kg-1, vecuronium 0.1 mg x kg-1 and maintained with sevoflurane 2% and 60% nitrous oxide in oxygen. After intubation, patients in group I received 15 mg.kg-1 magnesium in 30 ml 0.9% NaCl over 20 min. Patients in group II received 0.9% NaCl alone in the same volume. After reversal of neuromuscular blockade, all patients were extubated at a very deep plane of anaesthesia. The incidence of laryngospasm was determined until the time of discharge from the postanaesthesia care unit.

RESULTS

Although laryngospasm was not observed in group I, it was observed in five patients in group II (25%). The incidence of laryngospasm in group II was significantly higher than group I. The plasma magnesium concentrations were significantly higher in group I than group II.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a significant decrease in the incidence of laryngospasm in paediatric patients receiving magnesium. It is suggested that the use of intravenous magnesium intraoperatively may prevent laryngospasm.

Oral clonidine premedication does not reduce postoperative vomiting in children undergoing strabismus surgery

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the effect of oral clonidine on postoperative vomiting (POV) in children undergoing strabismus surgery.

METHODS

Eighty ASA physical status I children aged 3-12 years were randomly assigned to one of two groups in a double-blinded manner. One hour before surgery, each patient in the clonidine group (n=40) received clonidine 4 micro g kg-1 in apple juice 0.2 ml kg-1, and each of the controls (n=40) received apple juice 0.2 ml kg-1 only. The protocol for general anesthesia was propofol-sevoflurane in N2O/O2. A paracetamol suppository was administered in each case to prevent postoperative pain. Patient responses during 0-48 h after anesthesia were recorded as complete (no POV, no antiemetic rescue required), retching, vomiting, or rescue antiemetic.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences between the clonidine and control groups regarding the number of patients with complete response (21 vs. 18, respectively) retching (10 vs. 14, respectively), vomiting (19 vs. 22, respectively), or rescue antiemetic (9 vs. 12, respectively) during the first 48 h.

CONCLUSION

Oral premedication with clonidine 4 micro g kg-1 did not reduce the rate of POV in the children undergoing strabismus surgery.

Carbon dioxide pneumothorax during laparoscopic surgery

BACKGROUND

Anesthetic considerations for laparoscopic cholecystectomy are similar to those for other laparoscopic procedures and result from the creation of a pneumoperitoneum by insufflation of carbon dioxide (CO 2) into the abdominal cavity. The resultant problems such as decreased functional residual capacity, increased airway pressure, hypercarbia, and circulatory impairment are well known [1]. The reported case is that of a healthy 45-yr-old man who underwent elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy under general anesthesia. As surgery proceeded he developed hypercapnia (arterial blood partial pressure of CO 2 [pCO] 2], 97.1 mmHg; extrapolated end-tidal CO 2 tension [P ETCO 2], 90 mmHg) and hypoxemia (partial pressure of oxygen [pO 2], 53.1 mmHg). The cause was attributed to absorption of CO 2 directly related to the surgical pneumoperitoneum. This report illustrates the diagnosis and management of an unusual case of CO 2 absorption, resulting in hypercapnia and hypoxemia, and a spontaneous recovery within 30 to 60 min without need of thoracentesis.

Effectiveness of intravenous ephedrine infusion during spinal anaesthesia for caesarean section based on maternal hypotension, neonatal acid-base status and lactate levels

Maternal cardiovascular changes and neonatal acid-base status, including lactate levels, were assessed in 30 healthy women undergoing elective caesarean section under spinal anaesthesia. Patients were allocated randomly to receive IV ephedrine infusion (n = 15) (5 mg.min(-1) immediately after the spinal injection or bolus administration of IV ephedrine (n = 15) (10 mg) in case of development of hypotension. Maternal and neonatal blood pressure, heart rate and acid-base status including lactate levels were compared between the groups. Systolic blood pressure in the bolus group was significantly lower when compared to the infusion group. Nausea was observed in one patient (6%) in the infusion group and nausea and vomiting were observed in 10 patients (66%) in the bolus group. Although umbilical arterial pH values were significantly lower in the bolus group, lactate levels were similar In conclusion, ephedrine infusion prevented maternal hypotension, reduced the incidence of nausea and vomiting and led to improved umbilical blood pH during spinal anaesthesia for caesarean section.