Extracting summary statistics to perform meta-analyses of the published literature for survival endpoints

Meta-analyses aim to provide a full and comprehensive summary of related studies which have addressed a similar question. When the studies involve time to event (survival-type) data the most appropriate statistics to use are the log hazard ratio and its variance. However, these are not always explicitly presented for each study. In this paper a number of methods of extracting estimates of these statistics in a variety of situations are presented. Use of these methods should improve the efficiency and reliability of meta-analyses of the published literature with survival-type endpoints.

Paclitaxel plus platinum-based chemotherapy versus conventional platinum-based chemotherapy in women with relapsed ovarian cancer: the ICON4/AGO-OVAR-2.2 trial

BACKGROUND

Despite improvements in the treatment of ovarian cancer, most patients develop recurrent disease within 3 years of diagnosis. There is no agreed second-line treatment at relapse. We assessed paclitaxel plus platinum chemotherapy as such treatment.

METHODS

In parallel international, multicentre, randomised trials, between January, 1996, and March, 2002, 802 patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer relapsing after 6 months of being treatment-free were enrolled from 119 hospitals in five countries. Patients were randomly assigned paclitaxel plus platinum chemotherapy or conventional platinum-based chemotherapy. Analysis was by intention to treat, except for toxic effects.

FINDINGS

With a median follow-up of 42 months, 530 patients have died. Survival curves showed a difference in favour of paclitaxel plus platinum (hazard ratio 0.82 [95% CI 0.69-0.97], p=0.02), corresponding to an absolute difference in 2-year survival of 7% between the paclitaxel and conventional treatment groups (57 vs 50% [95% CI for difference 1-12]), and median survival of 5 months (29 vs 24 months [1-11). 717 patients developed progressive disease or died. The progression-free survival curves show a difference in favour of paclitaxel plus platinum (hazard ratio 0.76 [0.66-0.89], p=0.0004), corresponding to an absolute difference in 1-year progression-free survival of 10% (50 vs 40% [4-15]) and in median progression-free survival of 3 months (13 vs 10 months [1-5]).

INTERPRETATION

Paclitaxel plus platinum chemotherapy seems to improve survival and progression-free survival among patients with relapsed platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer compared with conventional platinum-based chemotherapy.

Cytotoxic and hormonal treatment for metastatic breast cancer: a systematic review of published randomized trials involving 31,510 women

PURPOSE

A systematic review of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) was undertaken to assess the effectiveness of medical treatment for metastatic breast cancer.

METHODS

RCTs published between 1975 and 1997 have been classified according to 12 therapeutic comparisons: (1) polychemotherapy (PCHT) agents versus single agent; (2) PCHT regimens with anthracycline versus PCHT without anthracycline; (3) other PCHT versus cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF); (4) chemotherapy (CHT) with epirubicin versus CHT with doxorubicin; (5) CHT versus same CHT delivered with less intensive schedules; (6) other endocrine therapy (OET) versus tamoxifen; (7) OET plus tamoxifen versus tamoxifen alone; (8) OET versus medroxyprogesterone; (9) OET versus aromatase inhibitors; (10) OET versus megestrol; (11) endocrine therapy (ET) versus same ET at lower doses; and (12) CHT plus ET versus CHT. Tumor response rates, mortality hazards ratio (HR) and frequency of severe side effects were the outcome measures.

RESULTS

A total of 189 eligible trials (31,510 patients) were identified. All provided response rates and 133 (70%) data or survival curves needed for calculation of the HR. In eight of 12 comparisons, statistically significant differences for response emerged (1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12); all but no. 8 favored the first term of the comparison. Overall survival analysis showed better results of (a) PCHT versus single-agent CHT (HR=0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.90); (b) CHT with doxorubicin versus CHT with epirubicin (HR=1.13; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.27); (c) CHT versus the same CHT delivered with less intensive schedules (HR=0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.97); (d) ET versus the same ET at lower doses (HR=0.86; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.97). Quality of life was measured in only 2,995 of 31,510 patients (9.5%).

CONCLUSION

Despite some evidence of effectiveness of specific regimens, the relevance of these findings is limited by the modest survival benefit and the lack of evaluation of the quality-of-life impact of these treatments.

Effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis in critically ill adult patients: systematic review of randomised controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether antibiotic prophylaxis reduces respiratory tract infections and overall mortality in unselected critically ill adult patients.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials from 1984 and 1996 that compared different forms of antibiotic prophylaxis used to reduce respiratory tract infections and mortality with aggregate data and, in a subset of trials, data from individual patients.

SUBJECTS

Unselected critically ill adult patients; 5727 patients for aggregate data meta-analysis, 4343 for confirmatory meta-analysis with data from individual patients.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Respiratory tract infections and total mortality.

RESULTS

Two categories of eligible trials were defined: topical plus systemic antibiotics versus no treatment and topical preparation with or without a systemic antibiotic versus a systemic agent or placebo. Estimates from aggregate data meta-analysis of 16 trials (3361 patients) that tested combined treatment indicated a strong significant reduction in infection (odds ratio 0.35; 95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.41) and total mortality (0.80; 0.69 to 0.93). With this treatment five and 23 patients would need to be treated to prevent one infection and one death, respectively. Similar analysis of 17 trials (2366 patients) that tested only topical antibiotics indicated a clear reduction in infection (0.56; 0.46 to 0.68) without a significant effect on total mortality (1.01; 0.84 to 1.22). Analysis of data from individual patients yielded similar results. No significant differences in treatment effect by major subgroups of patients emerged from the analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis of 15 years of clinical research suggests that antibiotic prophylaxis with a combination of topical and systemic drugs can reduce respiratory tract infections and overall mortality in critically ill patients. This effect is significant and worth while, and it should be considered when practice guidelines are defined.

Efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy after curative resection for gastric cancer: a meta-analysis of published randomised trials. A study of the GISCAD (Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio dei Carcinomi dell'Apparato Digerente)

BACKGROUND

Several studies have investigated the possible role of the adjuvant chemotherapy after curative resection for gastric cancer failing to show a clear indication; previous meta-analyses suggested small survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy, but the statistical methods used were open to criticisms.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Randomised trials were identified by means of Medline and CancerLit and by selecting references from relevant articles. Systematic review of all randomised clinical trials of adjuvant chemotherapy for gastric cancer compared with surgery alone, published before January 2000, were considered. Pooling of data was performed using the fixed effect model. Death for any cause was the study endpoint. The hazard ratio and its 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), derived according to the method of Parmar, were the statistics chosen for summarising the relative benefit of chemotherapy versus control.

RESULTS

Overall 20 articles (21 comparisons) were considered for analysis. Three studies used single agent chemotherapy, seven combination of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) with anthracyclin, ten combination of 5-FU without anthracyclines. Information on 3658 patients, 2180 deaths, was collected. Chemotherapy reduced the risk of death by 18% (hazard ratio 0.82, 95% CI: 0.75-0.89, P < 0.001). Association of Anthracyclines to 5-FU did not show a statistically significant improvement when compared with the effect of the other regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

Chemotherapy produces a small survival benefit in patients with curatively resected gastric cancer. However, taking into account the limitations of literature based meta-analyses, adjuvant chemotherapy is still to be considered as an investigational approach.

Circulating levels of the long pentraxin PTX3 correlate with severity of infection in critically ill patients

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the recently discovered long pentraxin PTX3 in plasma of critically ill patients and to compare it with the classic short pentraxin C-reactive protein and with other indicators of inflammation.

DESIGN

A cohort study on plasma samples.

SETTING

Medical intensive care unit (ICU) of the University Hospital of Basel.

PATIENTS

A total of 101 consecutive critically ill patients admitted to the medical ICU.

INTERVENTIONS

Venous blood samples were routinely obtained at entry, on day 2, and at discharge or before death.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Plasma samples were obtained from 101 consecutive critically ill patients admitted to the ICU with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, or septic shock. PTX3 plasma levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. PTX3 was elevated in critically ill patients, with a gradient from systemic inflammatory response syndrome to septic shock. PTX3 levels correlated with clinical scores reflecting severity of disease (e.g., Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II: p =.00097). In addition, high levels of PTX3 were associated with unfavorable outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The long pentraxin PTX3 is elevated in critically ill patients and correlates with severity of disease and infection. Compared with the short pentraxin C-reactive protein, PTX3 may be a more direct indicator of tissue involvement by inflammatory and infectious processes.

Epidermal growth factor receptor overexpression correlates with a poor prognosis in completely resected non-small-cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

We designed a prospective study to test epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in resected stage I-IIIA non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to correlate overexpression with survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

EGFR expression was evaluated in 130 consecutive NSCLC patients after radical surgery (60 squamous cell carcinomas, 48 adenocarcinomas, 22 large cell carcinomas: stage I, 41 (31%); stage II, 37 (29%) and stage IIIA, 52 (40%).

RESULTS

Overall, 101 of 130 (78%) specimens expressed EGFR, and with a cut-off value of 10% positive cells 48 cases (37%) were classified as positive. At univariate analysis, EGFR was significantly more expressed in stage III (50%) than stage I (20%) and stage II (25%) (P <0.03). No correlation with histotype was found. After a median follow-up of 84 months, both median survival time (18 versus 50 months), 2-year (43% versus 70%) and 5-year (31% versus 46%) survival rates of positive cases were significantly lower than negative ones [P <0.001; hazard ratio 1.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-3.30]. At the multivariate analysis, EGFR overexpression and stage emerged as independent factors for cancer-related mortality.

CONCLUSION

In patients with radically resected stage I-IIIA NSCLC, EGFR overexpression predicts shorter survival, thus representing a valuable prognostic factor.

Randomised study of systematic lymphadenectomy in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer macroscopically confined to the pelvis

No randomised trials have addressed the value of systematic aortic and pelvic lymphadenectomy (SL) in ovarian cancer macroscopically confined to the pelvis. This study was conducted to investigate the role of SL compared with lymph nodes sampling (CONTROL) in the management of early stage ovarian cancer. A total of 268 eligible patients with macroscopically intrapelvic ovarian carcinoma were randomised to SL (N=138) or CONTROL (N=130). The primary objective was to compare the proportion of patients with retroperitoneal nodal involvement between the two groups. Median operating time was longer and more patients required blood transfusions in the SL arm than the CONTROL arm (240 vs 150 min, P<0.001, and 36 vs 22%, P=0.012, respectively). More patients in the SL group had positive nodes at histologic examination than patients on CONTROL (9 vs 22%, P=0.007). Postoperative chemotherapy was delivered in 66% and 51% of patients with negative nodes on CONTROL and SL, respectively (P=0.03). At a median follow-up of 87.8 months, the adjusted risks for progression (hazard ratio [HR]=0.72, 95%CI=0.46–1.21, P=0.16) and death (HR=0.85, 95%CI=0.49–1.47, P=0.56) were lower, but not statistically significant, in the SL than the CONTROL arm. Five-year progression-free survival was 71.3 and 78.3% (difference=7.0%, 95% CI=–3.4–14.3%) and 5-year overall survival was 81.3 and 84.2% (difference=2.9%, 95% CI=−7.0–9.2%) respectively for CONTROL and SL. SL detects a higher proportion of patients with metastatic lymph nodes. This trial may have lacked power to exclude clinically important effects of SL on progression free and overall survival.

Elevated cerebrospinal fluid levels of monocyte chemotactic protein-1 correlate with HIV-1 encephalitis and local viral replication

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the CC-chemokine monocyte chemotactic protein (MCP)-1 could play a role in the pathogenesis of HIV infection of the central nervous system. This hypothesis was suggested by previous observations, including our finding of elevated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of this chemokine in patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) encephalitis.

DESIGN AND METHODS

CSF levels of MCP-1 were determined in 37 HIV-infected patients with neurological symptoms, and were compared with both the presence and severity of HIV-1 encephalitis at post-mortem examination and CSF HIV RNA levels. MCP-1 production by monocyte-derived macrophages was tested after in vitro infection of these cells by HIV.

RESULTS

CSF MCP-1 levels were significantly higher in patients with (median, 4.99 ng/ml) than in those without (median, 1.72 ng/ml) HIV encephalitis. Elevated CSF MCP-1 concentrations were also found in patients with CMV encephalitis and with concomitant HIV and CMV encephalitis (median, 3.14 and 4.23 ng/ml, respectively). HIV encephalitis was strongly associated with high CSF MCP-1 levels (P = 0.002), which were also correlated to high HIV-1 RNA levels in the CSF (P = 0.007), but not to plasma viraemia. In vitro, productive HIV-1 infection of monocyte-derived macrophages upregulated the secretion of MCP-1.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, these in vivo and in vitro findings support a model whereby HIV encephalitis is sustained by virus replication in microglial cells, a process amplified by recruitment of mononuclear cells via HIV-induced MCP-1.

Best practices for the management of local-regional recurrent chordoma: a position paper by the Chordoma Global Consensus Group

Chordomas are rare, malignant bone tumors of the skull-base and axial skeleton. Until recently, there was no consensus among experts regarding appropriate clinical management of chordoma, resulting in inconsistent care and suboptimal outcomes for many patients. To address this shortcoming, the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) and the Chordoma Foundation, the global chordoma patient advocacy group, convened a multi-disciplinary group of chordoma specialists to define by consensus evidence-based best practices for the optimal approach to chordoma. In January 2015, the first recommendations of this group were published, covering the management of primary and metastatic chordomas. Additional evidence and further discussion were needed to develop recommendations about the management of local-regional failures. Thus, ESMO and CF convened a second consensus group meeting in November 2015 to address the treatment of locally relapsed chordoma. This meeting involved over 60 specialists from Europe, the United States and Japan with expertise in treatment of patients with chordoma. The consensus achieved during that meeting is the subject of the present publication and complements the recommendations of the first position paper.

Adjuvant treatment for early epithelial ovarian cancer: results of two randomised clinical trials comparing cisplatin to no further treatment or chromic phosphate (32P). G.I.C.O.G.: Gruppo Interregionale Collaborativo in Ginecologia Oncologica

BACKGROUND

From 1983 to 1990, 271 consecutive patients with stage I ovarian cancer entered two randomised trials, aimed at assessing the role of adjuvant chemotherapy after radical surgery in early stages of ovarian cancer. Trial I compared cisplatin (50 mg/m2 with repeated courses every 28 days for 6 cycles) to no further therapy in F.I.G.O. stage Ia & b Grade II-III patients; trial II compared cisplatin (same dose and schedule) to 32P in Iaii & bii and Ic patients.

METHODS

Both studies were multicentric and centrally randomized. Treatment was allocated by phone and stratified by center. All patients satisfying major eligibility criteria (histological and grade, no previous neoplasms) were analysed according to treatment allocated by randomisation.

RESULTS

With a median observation time of 76 months, cisplatin significantly reduced the relapse rate by 65% (HR = 0.35; 95% CI = 0.14-0.89, p = 0.028; Cox Model) in trial I and 61% (HR = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.19-0.77, p = 0.007; Cox Model) in trial II. Survival was not significantly different (trial I - Kaplan-Meier overall 5-year survival: cisplatin = 88%, control = 82%, HR = 1.15; 95% CI = 0.44-2.98; p = 0.773; Cox Model); trial II - overall 5-year survival: cisplatin = 81%, 32P = 79%, HR = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.37-1.43; p = 0.354; Cox model). In both studies the risk of dying after relapse increased for patients originally randomized to the cisplatin arms: in trial I, 6 of 7 patients in the cisplatin relapsed arm and died of tumor compared with 8 of 14 patients in the control arm. In trial II 11 of 12 patients on cisplatin, and 18 of 26 on 32P succumbed to tumor recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Adjuvant cisplatin treatment in early ovarian cancer significantly prevents relapse in comparison to 32P in stage IC patients or to no immediate treatment in earlier stage women. The impact of cisplatin adjuvant treatment on survival remains, however, unclear.

Conservative surgery for stage I ovarian carcinoma in women of childbearing age

OBJECTIVE

To assess the results of a policy of tailored conservative surgical management for young women with stage I ovarian carcinomas.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

PARTICIPANTS

Ninety-nine women aged 40 years or younger who underwent either primary surgery in our department or were referred after primary surgery performed elsewhere.

METHODS

Of the 99 women in our study, 56 underwent fertility-sparing surgery and 43 more radical surgery. Minimal requirements for conservative management were adequate staging and complete information about the therapeutic options. Factors important in the choice of the treatment were, age, wish to preserve fertility, histologic type and grade, and the stage of the tumour.

RESULTS

Conservative treatment was conducted in 84% of nulliparous and in 33% of parous women; 62% of grade 1 tumours, 48% of grade 2, and 50% of grade 3 were treated conservatively. With a median follow up of seven years, we observed five recurrences (9%) of carcinoma in women treated conservatively and five (12%) in those treated more radically. Two women (one in each treatment arm) were saved after recurrence. Two recurrences after conservative surgery involved the residual ovary (3.6%). Two women developed borderline tumour in the contralateral ovary and both were treated by surgery.

CONCLUSION

After adequate staging and accurate information is given to the patient, conservative treatment may be safe in some women with early ovarian cancer. The risk of recurrence in the contralateral ovary is low. Conservative surgery may be also considered in some Stage I grade 3 tumours and in some women with stage JC tumours.

Sonographic endometrial thickness: a useful test to predict atrophy in patients with postmenopausal bleeding. An Italian multicenter study

Eighteen centers took part in this prospective study into which 930 eligible patients were recruited. The selection criteria for admission were atypical bleeding after at least 6 months of postmenopausal amenorrhea, and absence of hormonal therapies for at least 6 months. The sonographic measurement of the maximum bi-endometrial thickness was made in a longitudinal plane. Sonographic measurements were always performed within 3 days prior to histological evaluation. In these patients the mean number of years from menopause (25-75th centile) was 6 (range 2-16). The prevalence of endometrial carcinoma was 11.5% and the prevalence of atrophy was 49.2%. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curves generated by sonographic thickness measurements reached the level of 85%, both for cancer and atrophy. The likelihood ratio for cancer, yielded by an endometrial thickness of < or = 4.0 mm, was 0.05, and for atrophy it was 7.1. This cut-off of > 4.0 mm yielded a sensitivity for the detection of cancer of 98% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The overall sensitivity and positive predictive value for atrophy achieved by this cut-off were 57.2% and 87.3%, respectively. A multivariate logistic model showed that age and body mass index were independent variables associated with a significantly higher risk of endometrial cancer. The post-test probabilities for cancer and atrophy were recalculated on the basis of the integration of age, body mass index and endometrial thickness. The estimated reduction of invasive procedures on the basis of this integration was 31%. Transvaginal sonographic measurement of endometrial thickness, integrated with individual risk factors, can help in the management of postmenopausal patients with atypical bleeding, with regard to either the need for histological evaluation in high risk cases, or the choice of possible expectant management. We have shown that an endometrial thickness of < or = 4.0 mm safely predicts endometrial atrophy and justifies expectant management when the patient understands the need for proper follow up. This could be achieved with a reduction in the use of invasive procedures without unwanted delay in cancer diagnosis.

Choosing wisely first line immunotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): what to add and what to leave out

Immunotherapy has dramatically changed the therapeutic scenario in treatment naïve advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). While single agent pembrolizumab has become the standard therapy in patients with PD-L1 expression on tumor cells ≥ 50%, the combination of pembrolizumab or atezolizumab and platinum-based chemotherapy has emerged as an effective first line treatment regardless of PD-L1 expression both in squamous and non-squamous NSCLC without oncogenic drivers. Furthermore, double immune checkpoint inhibition has shown promising results in treatment naïve patients with high tumor mutational burden (TMB). Of note, the presence of both negative PD-L1 expression and low TMB may identify a subgroup of patients who has little benefit from immunotherapy combinations and for whom the best treatment option may still be platinum-based chemotherapy. To date, first-line single agent immune checkpoint blockade has demonstrated limited activity in EGFR mutated NSCLC and the combination of immunotherapy and targeted agents has raised safety concerns in both EGFR and ALK positive NSCLC patients. Finally, in EGFR mutated or ALK rearranged NSCLC, atezolizumab in combination with platinum-based chemotherapy and bevacizumab is emerging as a potential treatment option upon progression to first line tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

Venous thromboembolism predicts poor prognosis in irresectable pancreatic cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The aim was to investigate the outcomes associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE) among irresectable pancreatic cancer patients.

METHODS

This is a follow-up study of consecutive irresectable cancer patients, treated and followed up in clinical trials between December 2001 and December 2004 in order to evaluate the prognostic impact of symptomatic VTE on clinical outcomes, such as response to treatment, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Among 227 irresectable pancreatic cancer patients, with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS) < or = 2, 59 (26.0%) patients developed a VTE. A synchronous VTE occurred in 28 (12.3%) patients, while a VTE during chemotherapy was observed in 15 (6.6%) patients, and 16 (7.0%) patients experienced both events. Presence of synchronous VTE was associated with a higher probability of not responding to treatment (odds ratio 2.98, 95% CI 1.42-6.27, P = 0.004), but showed no effect on both PFS and OS at least at multivariate analysis. Occurrence of a VTE during chemotherapy showed a statistically significant effect on PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.59, 95% CI 1.69-3.97, P < 0.0001) and OS (HR 1.64, 95%CI 1.04-2.58, P = 0.032).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that the occurrence of VTE may be associated with a reduced response rate and a shorter PFS and OS among patients with irresectable pancreatic cancer. In these patients the development of VTE may reflect the presence of a biologically more aggressive cancer that in turn leads to a worse prognosis.

A phase II, randomized trial of neo-adjuvant chemotherapy comparing a three-drug combination of paclitaxel, ifosfamide, and cisplatin (TIP) versus paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) followed by radical surgery in patients with locally advanced squamous cell cervical carcinoma: the Snap-02 Italian Collaborative Study

BACKGROUND

The efficacy and tolerability of the regimen containing paclitaxel and cisplatin (TP) in the neo-adjuvant treatment of locally advanced squamous cell cervical cancer are unknown. The TIP regimen (TP plus ifosfamide) showed high efficacy but high toxicity and it is used as an internal control.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In all, 154 patients were randomized to TP (paclitaxel 175 mg/m(2) + cisplatin 75 mg/m(2); n = 80) or TIP (TP + ifosfamide 5 g/m(2); n = 74), three cycles, followed by radical surgery. Pathological response to chemotherapy was classified as optimal [no residual tumor (complete response) or residual disease with < or = 3 mm stromal invasion (PR1)] or suboptimal response.

RESULTS

Patient characteristics (TP/TIP): stage IB2 (56%/64%), IIA (18%/14%), IIB (20%/19%), III-IVA (5%/4%) and median age (42 years/45 years). The optimal response rate in the TP group was 25%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 16% to 37% and 43%, 95% CI = 31% to 55% in the TIP group. Grades 3-4 leukopenia (6%/53%) and neutropenia (26%/76%) were significantly more frequent on TIP.

CONCLUSION

TP performance was below expectation since the lower 95% confidence limit of the optimal response rate failed to reach the prespecified minimum requirement of efficacy, i.e. 22%. The TIP regimen confirmed its activity but was associated with higher haematological toxicity than TP.

First-line treatment for advanced ovarian cancer: paclitaxel, platinum and the evidence

Four large randomised trials of paclitaxel in combination with platinum against a platinum-based control treatment have now been published in full, representing around 88% (3588 out of 4057) of patients randomised into the eight known trials of this question. There is substantial heterogeneity in the results of these four trials. Four main explanations for this heterogeneity have been proposed: differences in the extent and timing of 'crossover' to taxanes in the control groups; differences in the types of patient included; differences in the effectiveness of the research regimens used; differences in the effectiveness of the control regimens used. In this study we examine whether any of these explanations is consistent with the pattern of results seen in these trials. Each explanation suggests that a particular characteristic of each trial was responsible for the results observed. For each explanation the trials were split into groups according to that characteristic, in order to partition the total heterogeneity into that seen 'within' and 'between' groups of trials. If a particular explanation was consistent with the pattern of results, we would expect to see relatively little heterogeneity within each group of trial results viewed in this way, with most of the heterogeneity being between groups which are dissimilar with respect to the key characteristic. Heterogeneity 'within' and 'between' groups was formally compared using the F-ratio. If any explanation appeared to be consistent with the results of the trials, it was considered whether the explanation was also consistent with other evidence available about these regimens. Only one explanation appeared to be consistent with the pattern of results seen in these trials, and that was differences in effectiveness of the control arms used in these trials. This suggests that the very positive results in favour of paclitaxel/cisplatin seen in two of the trials may have been due to the use of a suboptimal control arm. There is no direct evidence about the relative effectiveness of the control arms used in these trials, but indirect evidence is consistent with the conclusion that the cyclophosphamide/cisplatin regimen used in two of the trials may be less effective than the control regimens used in the other trials. Specific concerns about the choice of a cyclophosphamide/cisplatin control arm in the first of these trials to report were raised before the results of the other trials were known, i.e. before any heterogeneity had been observed. Further investigation of this question would be useful. In the meantime, given all of the randomised evidence on the efficacy and toxicity associated with the regimens used in these trials, we conclude that single agent carboplatin is a safe and effective first-line treatment for women with advanced ovarian cancer.

A randomized trial of intensive versus minimal surveillance of patients with resected Dukes B2-C colorectal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third most common and the third most lethal cancer in both men and women in developed countries. About 75% of cases are first diagnosed when the disease is classified as localized or regional, undergo potentially curative treatment and enter a post-treatment surveillance program. Although such programs drain significant resources from health systems, empirical evidence of their efficacy is scanty.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Dukes B2-C colorectal cancer patients who had no evidence of disease at the end of their front-line treatment (surgery and adjuvant radiochemotherapy, if indicated) were eligible for the trial and randomized to two different surveillance programs. These programs differed greatly in the frequency of diagnostic imaging. They had similar schedules of physical examinations and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) assessments. Patients received baseline and yearly health-related quality-of-life (HR-QoL) questionnaires. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and QoL.

RESULTS

From 1998 to 2006, 1228 assessable patients were randomized, 933 with colon cancer and 295 with rectal cancer. More than 90% of patients had the expected number of diagnostic procedures. Median follow-up duration was 62 months [interquartile range (IQR) 51-86] in the minimal surveillance group and 62 months (IQR 50-85) in the intensive group. At primary analysis, 250 patients had recurred and 218 had died. Intensive surveillance anticipated recurrence, as shown by a significant difference in mean disease-free survival of 5.9 months. Comparison of OS curves of the whole intention-to-treat population showed no statistically significant differences. HR-QoL of life scores did not differ between regimens.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the conclusions of other randomized clinical trials, which show that early diagnosis of cancer recurrence is not associated with OS benefit.

CLINICALTRIALSGOV

NCT02409472.

Pemetrexed plus carboplatin in elderly patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma: combined analysis of two phase II trials

The incidence of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) in elderly patients is increasing. In this study, pooled data from two phase II trials of pemetrexed and carboplatin (PC) as first-line therapy were retrospectively analysed for comparisons between age groups. Patients received pemetrexed 500 mg m(-2) and carboplatin AUC 5 mg ml(-1) min(-1) intravenously every 21 days with standard vitamin supplementation. Elderly patients were defined as those >or=70 years old. A total of 178 patients with an ECOG performance status of or=70 years (27%). Grade 3-4 haematological toxicity was slightly worse in >or=70 vs <70-year-old patients, with neutropenia observed in 25.0 vs 13.8% (P=0.11), anaemia in 20.8 vs 6.9% (P=0.01) and thrombocytopenia in 14.6 vs 8.5% (P=0.26). Non-haematological toxicity was mild and similar in the two groups. No significant difference was observed in terms of overall disease control (60.4 vs 66.9%, P=0.47), time to progression (7.2 vs 7.5 months, P=0.42) and survival (10.7 vs 13.9 months, P=0.12). Apart from slightly worse haematological toxicity, there was no significant difference in outcome or toxicity between age groups. The PC regimen is effective and well tolerated in selected elderly patients with MPM.

Controversial issues in the management of early epithelial ovarian cancer: conservative surgery and role of adjuvant therapy

The feasibility of conservative surgery and the role of postoperative adjuvant therapy are still controversial issues in the management of early ovarian cancer. Data on 99 patients below the age of 40 with stage I ovarian cancer are reported and conservative surgery was performed in 56 (56%) patients (36 stage Ia, 1 stage Ib, and 19 stage Ic). Relapse occurred in 3 stage Ia (grades 1, 2, and 3) patients, but only 1 occurrence was in the residual ovary and the patient was rescued by surgery. The other 2 patients who relapsed in distant sites died as a result of their tumors. Seventeen patients who desired to become pregnant did so for a total of 25 conceptions. These data support the possibility of some extension of the traditional conservative approach. Only two randomized studies so far have tested cisplatin as an adjuvant treatment of early disease. A Norwegian trial compared cisplatin to 32P in stage I-III ovarian cancer without residual tumor after primary surgery and found no difference in survival. An Italian study compared cisplatin to observation in stage Ia and Ib grade 2 and 3 tumors and cisplatin to 32P in stage Ic patients. While disease-free survival was statically longer in cisplatin-treated patients of both groups, no difference in survival could be detected. These results supported the design of a currently ongoing multicenter trial testing platinum-based therapy soon after surgery or at time of relapse.

The accuracy of staging: an important prognostic determinator in stage I ovarian carcinoma. A multivariate analysis

BACKGROUND

Several prognostic factors for stage I ovarian carcinoma have been analyzed. Some of them are biological and clinical in nature, but others such as the thoroughness of the staging procedure, the extent of the surgery and the philosophy of treatment, are defined by the human element.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed the records of 351 patients with Stage I ovarian cancer who had been treated from 1981 to 1991. For all patients the following information was available: age, size of the tumor, FIGO sub-stage, tumor grade, histologic type, rupture of the tumor, cytology, extent of the staging and of the surgery (hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy vs. fertility-conserving surgery) and use of adjuvant treatments. The thoroughness of the staging was defined as: optimal staging: total abdominal hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy or fertility-conserving surgery, peritoneal cytology or washing, omentectomy, multiple peritoneal biopsies, sampling of the retroperitoneal nodes or formal lymphadenectomy, peritoneal staging: all the criteria described above were met with the exception of retroperitoneal sampling, incomplete staging: lack of any of the previously-cited criteria.

RESULTS

An optimal staging was performed in 100 patients, a peritoneal staging in 107 and an incomplete staging in 144. Radical surgery was performed in 295 women and fertility-conserving surgery in 56. With a median follow-up of 108 months (range 14-184) 64 patients had recurrence of the tumor. Fifty-three died of the disease, two are currently alive with disease and nine were salvaged by surgery and/or chemotherapy. In a multivariate analysis only the tumor grade and the type of staging were significant independent prognostic factors for both disease-free and overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

As described by other authors, we confirm that tumor grade is the single most important biological prognostic factor in early ovarian carcinoma. The thoroughness of the staging impacts significantly on survival, particularly in poorly differentiated carcinomas. Fertility-sparing surgery is not associated with a worse outcome than standard radical surgery.

Antibiotic prophylaxis to reduce respiratory tract infections and mortality in adults receiving intensive care

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is an important cause of mortality in intensive care units. The incidence of pneumonia in such patients ranges between 7% and 40%, and the crude mortality from ventilator associated pneumonia may exceed 50%. Although not all deaths in patients with this form of pneumonia are directly attributable to pneumonia, it has been shown to contribute to mortality in intensive care units independently of other factors that are also strongly associated with such deaths.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this review was to assess the effects of antibiotics for preventing respiratory tract infections and overall mortality in adults receiving intensive care.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (issue 3, 2003), which contains the Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) Group specialised trials register; MEDLINE (January 1966 to September 2003); EMBASE (January 1990 to September 2003); proceedings of scientific meetings and reference lists of articles from January 1984 to December 2002. We also contacted investigators in the field.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised trials of antibiotic prophylaxis for respiratory tract infections and deaths among adult intensive care unit patients.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

At least two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed trial quality.

MAIN RESULTS

Overall 36 trials involving 6922 people were included. There was variation in the antibiotics used, patient characteristics and risk of respiratory tract infections and mortality in the control groups. In 17 trials (involving 4295 patients) that tested a combination of topical and systemic antibiotic, the average rates of respiratory tract infections and deaths in the control group were 36% and 29% respectively. There was a significant reduction of both respiratory tract infections (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.41) and total mortality (odds ratio 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.89) in the treated group. On average 5 patients needed to be treated to prevent one infection and 21 patients to prevent one death. In 17 trials (involving 2664 patients) that tested topical antimicrobials alone (or comparing topical plus systemic versus systemic alone) the rates of respiratory tract infections and deaths in the control groups were 30% and 26% respectively. There was a significant reduction of respiratory tract infections (odds ratio 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.63) but not in total mortality (odds ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.16) in the treated group.

REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS

A combination of topical and systemic prophylactic antibiotics reduces respiratory tract infections and overall mortality in adult patients receiving intensive care. A treatment based on the use of topical prophylaxis alone reduces respiratory infections but not mortality. The risk of occurrence of resistance as a negative consequence of antibiotic use was appropriately explored only in the most recent trial by de Jonge which did not show any such effect.

Long-term follow-up of isolated optic neuritis: the risk of developing multiple sclerosis, its outcome, and the prognostic role of paraclinical tests

We evaluated the risk of developing clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) after an acute attack of isolated optic neuritis (ON) in 112 patients, in relation to demographic and paraclinical findings. Patients were examined by brain MRI, CSF analysis, and multiple evoked potentials (EPs); 10 were lost to follow-up, and the other 102 were enrolled in a prospective study (follow-up duration 6. 3 +/- 2.2 years). Of these, 37 (36.3%) developed CDMS after a mean interval of 2.3 +/- 1.6 years. The risk of developing CDMS was 13% after 2 years, 30% after 4, 37% after 6, and 42% after 8 and 10 years. Gender, age, and season of ON onset did not affect the risk. MS occurred in 37 of 71 patients (52.1%) with one MRI lesion or more; no patient with a normal MRI developed the disease. MS developed more frequently in patients with intrathecal IgG synthesis than in those without (43% vs. 28%), but the difference was not statistically significant. Multiple EPs showed a slight predictive value only including somatosensory EPs of the lower limb. Multiple sclerosis was mild in most cases (EDSS 2.2 +/- 1.9). The EDSS was less than 4 in 32 cases (86%), between 4 and 6 in 2 (5%), higher than 6.5 in 3 (8%).

Expression levels of vascular endothelial growth factor, matrix metalloproteinases 2 and 9 and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1 and 2 in the plasma of patients with ovarian carcinoma

We measured the levels of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), matrix metalloproteinases type 2 and type 9 (MMP-2 and MMP-9) and tissue inhibitors of matrix metalloproteinase 1 and 2 (TIMP-1 and TIMP-2) in the plasma of patients with ovarian carcinoma (n=40), in other gynaecological pathologies (n=30) and in the plasma of healthy volunteers (n=26). MMP-2 and MMP-9 (pro and active forms) gelatinolytic activity was measured by zymography. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) were used to assay soluble VEGF and TIMPs. Preoperative plasma VEGF levels were significantly higher in patients with ovarian cancer than in healthy volunteers (P<0.0001) or patients with a benign gynaecological pathology (P<0.0001). The expression of pro-MMP-9 was higher in the plasma of ovarian cancer patients than in the plasma of women with non-malignant disease (P=0.01) or healthy women (P<0.0002). Pro-MMP-2 was detected in the plasma of ovarian cancer patients, but levels did not differ from those in non-malignant disease or healthy donor samples. Plasma TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 levels were significantly higher in patients with ovarian carcinomas than in healthy volunteers (P<0.0001 and P=0.006, respectively) or in the patients with a non-malignant pathology (P<0.0001 and P=0.002, respectively). Sub-group analysis showed that VEGF and pro-MMP-9 were higher in the plasma of patients with serous carcinomas than other histological types. Furthermore, plasma VEGF and pro-MMP-9 levels were higher in the plasma of cancer patients with thrombocytosis. Throughout the study, and in the univariate analysis, no correlation was found between the VEGF, MMP and TIMP levels. Only TIMP-1 was associated with a poor survival and mortality risk.