Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Stroke genetics informs drug discovery and risk prediction across ancestries

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of stroke - the second leading cause of death worldwide - were conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry1,2. Here, in cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of 110,182 patients who have had a stroke (five ancestries, 33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals, we identify association signals for stroke and its subtypes at 89 (61 new) independent loci: 60 in primary inverse-variance-weighted analyses and 29 in secondary meta-regression and multitrait analyses. On the basis of internal cross-ancestry validation and an independent follow-up in 89,084 additional cases of stroke (30% non-European) and 1,013,843 control individuals, 87% of the primary stroke risk loci and 60% of the secondary stroke risk loci were replicated (P < 0.05). Effect sizes were highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis3, and transcriptome-wide and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (such as SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (such as at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a three-pronged approach4, we provide genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, LAMC2 and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWASs with vascular-risk factor GWASs (integrative polygenic scores) strongly predicted ischaemic stroke in populations of European, East Asian and African ancestry5. Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischaemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical-trial participants with cardiometabolic disease. Our results provide insights to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets and derive genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries.

Artificial Intelligence Transforms the Future of Health Care

Life sciences researchers using artificial intelligence (AI) are under pressure to innovate faster than ever. Large, multilevel, and integrated data sets offer the promise of unlocking novel insights and accelerating breakthroughs. Although more data are available than ever, only a fraction is being curated, integrated, understood, and analyzed. AI focuses on how computers learn from data and mimic human thought processes. AI increases learning capacity and provides decision support system at scales that are transforming the future of health care. This article is a review of applications for machine learning in health care with a focus on clinical, translational, and public health applications with an overview of the important role of privacy, data sharing, and genetic information.

Genetic basis of lacunar stroke: a pooled analysis of individual patient data and genome-wide association studies

BACKGROUND

The genetic basis of lacunar stroke is poorly understood, with a single locus on 16q24 identified to date. We sought to identify novel associations and provide mechanistic insights into the disease.

METHODS

We did a pooled analysis of data from newly recruited patients with an MRI-confirmed diagnosis of lacunar stroke and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Patients were recruited from hospitals in the UK as part of the UK DNA Lacunar Stroke studies 1 and 2 and from collaborators within the International Stroke Genetics Consortium. Cases and controls were stratified by ancestry and two meta-analyses were done: a European ancestry analysis, and a transethnic analysis that included all ancestry groups. We also did a multi-trait analysis of GWAS, in a joint analysis with a study of cerebral white matter hyperintensities (an aetiologically related radiological trait), to find additional genetic associations. We did a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) to detect genes for which expression is associated with lacunar stroke; identified significantly enriched pathways using multi-marker analysis of genomic annotation; and evaluated cardiovascular risk factors causally associated with the disease using mendelian randomisation.

FINDINGS

Our meta-analysis comprised studies from Europe, the USA, and Australia, including 7338 cases and 254 798 controls, of which 2987 cases (matched with 29 540 controls) were confirmed using MRI. Five loci (ICA1L-WDR12-CARF-NBEAL1, ULK4, SPI1-SLC39A13-PSMC3-RAPSN, ZCCHC14, ZBTB14-EPB41L3) were found to be associated with lacunar stroke in the European or transethnic meta-analyses. A further seven loci (SLC25A44-PMF1-BGLAP, LOX-ZNF474-LOC100505841, FOXF2-FOXQ1, VTA1-GPR126, SH3PXD2A, HTRA1-ARMS2, COL4A2) were found to be associated in the multi-trait analysis with cerebral white matter hyperintensities (n=42 310). Two of the identified loci contain genes (COL4A2 and HTRA1) that are involved in monogenic lacunar stroke. The TWAS identified associations between the expression of six genes (SCL25A44, ULK4, CARF, FAM117B, ICA1L, NBEAL1) and lacunar stroke. Pathway analyses implicated disruption of the extracellular matrix, phosphatidylinositol 5 phosphate binding, and roundabout binding (false discovery rate <0·05). Mendelian randomisation analyses identified positive associations of elevated blood pressure, history of smoking, and type 2 diabetes with lacunar stroke.

INTERPRETATION

Lacunar stroke has a substantial heritable component, with 12 loci now identified that could represent future treatment targets. These loci provide insights into lacunar stroke pathogenesis, highlighting disruption of the vascular extracellular matrix (COL4A2, LOX, SH3PXD2A, GPR126, HTRA1), pericyte differentiation (FOXF2, GPR126), TGF-β signalling (HTRA1), and myelination (ULK4, GPR126) in disease risk.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk of stroke in hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 infected patients: A multinational study

BACKGROUND

There is an increased attention to stroke following SARS-CoV-2. The goal of this study was to better depict the short-term risk of stroke and its associated factors among SARS-CoV-2 hospitalized patients.

METHODS

This multicentre, multinational observational study includes hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients from North and South America (United States, Canada, and Brazil), Europe (Greece, Italy, Finland, and Turkey), Asia (Lebanon, Iran, and India), and Oceania (New Zealand). The outcome was the risk of subsequent stroke. Centres were included by non-probability sampling. The counts and clinical characteristics including laboratory findings and imaging of the patients with and without a subsequent stroke were recorded according to a predefined protocol. Quality, risk of bias, and heterogeneity assessments were conducted according to ROBINS-E and Cochrane Q-test. The risk of subsequent stroke was estimated through meta-analyses with random effect models. Bivariate logistic regression was used to determine the parameters with predictive outcome value. The study was reported according to the STROBE, MOOSE, and EQUATOR guidelines.

FINDINGS

We received data from 26,175 hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients from 99 tertiary centres in 65 regions of 11 countries until May 1st, 2020. A total of 17,799 patients were included in meta-analyses. Among them, 156(0.9%) patients had a stroke-123(79%) ischaemic stroke, 27(17%) intracerebral/subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 6(4%) cerebral sinus thrombosis. Subsequent stroke risks calculated with meta-analyses, under low to moderate heterogeneity, were 0.5% among all centres in all countries, and 0.7% among countries with higher health expenditures. The need for mechanical ventilation (OR: 1.9, 95% CI:1.1-3.5, p = 0.03) and the presence of ischaemic heart disease (OR: 2.5, 95% CI:1.4-4.7, p = 0.006) were predictive of stroke.

INTERPRETATION

The results of this multi-national study on hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection indicated an overall stroke risk of 0.5%(pooled risk: 0.9%). The need for mechanical ventilation and the history of ischaemic heart disease are the independent predictors of stroke among SARS-CoV-2 patients.

FUNDING

None.

Novel Screening Tool for Stroke Using Artificial Neural Network

Background and Purpose—

The timely diagnosis of stroke at the initial examination is extremely important given the disease morbidity and narrow time window for intervention. The goal of this study was to develop a supervised learning method to recognize acute cerebral ischemia (ACI) and differentiate that from stroke mimics in an emergency setting.

Methods—

Consecutive patients presenting to the emergency department with stroke-like symptoms, within 4.5 hours of symptoms onset, in 2 tertiary care stroke centers were randomized for inclusion in the model. We developed an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The learning algorithm was based on backpropagation. To validate the model, we used a 10-fold cross-validation method.

Results—

A total of 260 patients (equal number of stroke mimics and ACIs) were enrolled for the development and validation of our ANN model. Our analysis indicated that the average sensitivity and specificity of ANN for the diagnosis of ACI based on the 10-fold cross-validation analysis was 80.0% (95% confidence interval, 71.8–86.3) and 86.2% (95% confidence interval, 78.7–91.4), respectively. The median precision of ANN for the diagnosis of ACI was 92% (95% confidence interval, 88.7–95.3).

Conclusions—

Our results show that ANN can be an effective tool for the recognition of ACI and differentiation of ACI from stroke mimics at the initial examination.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

FINDINGS

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

INTERPRETATION

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

FUNDING

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

SARS-CoV-2 and Stroke Characteristics: A Report From the Multinational COVID-19 Stroke Study Group

[Figure: see text].

NLRX1 Modulates Immunometabolic Mechanisms Controlling the Host-Gut Microbiota Interactions during Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Interactions among the gut microbiome, dysregulated immune responses, and genetic factors contribute to the pathogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Nlrx1^−/− mice have exacerbated disease severity, colonic lesions, and increased inflammatory markers. Global transcriptomic analyses demonstrate enhanced mucosal antimicrobial defense response, chemokine and cytokine expression, and epithelial cell metabolism in colitic Nlrx1^−/− mice compared to wild-type (WT) mice. Cell-specificity studies using cre-lox mice demonstrate that the loss of NLRX1 in intestinal epithelial cells (IEC) recapitulate the increased sensitivity to DSS colitis observed in whole body Nlrx1^−/− mice. Further, organoid cultures of Nlrx1^−/− and WT epithelial cells confirm the altered patterns of proliferation, amino acid metabolism, and tight junction expression. These differences in IEC behavior can impact the composition of the microbiome. Microbiome analyses demonstrate that colitogenic bacterial taxa such as Veillonella and Clostridiales are increased in abundance in Nlrx1^−/− mice and in WT mice co-housed with Nlrx1^−/− mice. The transfer of an Nlrx1^−/−-associated gut microbiome through co-housing worsens disease in WT mice confirming the contributions of the microbiome to the Nlrx1^−/− phenotype. To validate NLRX1 effects on IEC metabolism mediate gut–microbiome interactions, restoration of WT glutamine metabolic profiles through either exogenous glutamine supplementation or administration of 6-diazo-5-oxo-l-norleucine abrogates differences in inflammation, microbiome, and overall disease severity in Nlrx1^−/− mice. The influence NLRX1 deficiency on SIRT1-mediated effects is identified to be an upstream controller of the Nlrx1^−/− phenotype in intestinal epithelial cell function and metabolism. The altered IEC function and metabolisms leads to changes in barrier permeability and microbiome interactions, in turn, promoting greater translocation and inflammation and resulting in an increased disease severity. In conclusion, NLRX1 is an immunoregulatory molecule and a candidate modulator of the interplay between mucosal inflammation, metabolism, and the gut microbiome during IBD.

COVID-19: Neuroimaging Features of a Pandemic

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 is occasionally associated with manifold diseases of the central nervous system (CNS). We sought to present the neuroimaging features of such CNS involvement. In addition, we sought to identify typical neuroimaging patterns that could indicate possible COVID-19-associated neurological manifestations.

METHODS

In this systematic literature review, typical neuroimaging features of cerebrovascular diseases and inflammatory processes associated with COVID-19 were analyzed. Reports presenting individual patient data were included in further quantitative analysis with descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

We identified 115 studies reporting a total of 954 COVID-19 patients with associated neurological manifestations and neuroimaging alterations. A total of 95 (82.6%) of the identified studies were single case reports or case series, whereas 660 (69.2%) of the reported cases included individual information and were thus included in descriptive statistical analysis. Ischemia with neuroimaging patterns of large vessel occlusion event was revealed in 59.9% of ischemic stroke patients, whereas 69.2% of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage exhibited bleeding in a location that was not associated with hypertension. Callosal and/or juxtacortical location was identified in 58.7% of cerebral microbleed positive images. Features of hemorrhagic necrotizing encephalitis were detected in 28.8% of patients with meningo-/encephalitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Manifold CNS involvement is increasingly reported in COVID-19 patients. Typical and atypical neuroimaging features have been observed in some disease entities, so that familiarity with these imaging patterns appears reasonable and may assist clinicians in the differential diagnosis of COVID-19 CNS manifestations.

Racial, Economic and Health Inequality and COVID-19 Infection in the United States

BACKGROUND

There is preliminary evidence of racial and social-economic disparities in the population infected by and dying from COVID-19. The goal of this study is to report the associations of COVID-19 with respect to race, health and economic inequality in the United States.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study of the associations between infection and mortality rate of COVID-19 and demographic, socioeconomic and mobility variables from 369 counties (total population: 102,178,117 [median: 73,447, IQR: 30,761-256,098]) from the seven most affected states (Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Louisiana, Massachusetts).

FINDINGS

The risk factors for infection and mortality are different. Our analysis shows that counties with more diverse demographics, higher population, education, income levels, and lower disability rates were at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection. However, counties with higher disability and poverty rates had a higher death rate. African Americans were more vulnerable to COVID-19 than other ethnic groups (1,981 African American infected cases versus 658 Whites per million). Data on mobility changes corroborate the impact of social distancing.

INTERPRETATION

The observed inequality might be due to the workforce of essential services, poverty, and access to care. Counties in more urban areas are probably better equipped at providing care. The lower rate of infection, but a higher death rate in counties with higher poverty and disability could be due to lower levels of mobility, but a higher rate of comorbidities and health care access.

Clinical Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence Following a Cerebral Ischemic Event

Introduction: Recurrent stroke has a higher rate of death and disability. A number of risk scores have been developed to predict short-term and long-term risk of stroke following an initial episode of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) with limited clinical utilities. In this paper, we review different risk score models and discuss their validity and clinical utilities.

Methods: The PubMed bibliographic database was searched for original research articles on the various risk scores for risk of stroke following an initial episode of stroke or TIA. The validation of the models was evaluated by examining the internal and external validation process as well as statistical methodology, the study power, as well as the accuracy and metrics such as sensitivity and specificity.

Results: Different risk score models have been derived from different study populations. Validation studies for these risk scores have produced conflicting results. Currently, ABCD² score with diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 days (RRE-90) are the two acceptable models for short-term risk prediction whereas Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II (SPI-II) can be useful for prediction of long-term risk.

Conclusion: The clinical risk scores that currently exist for predicting short-term and long-term risk of recurrent cerebral ischemia are limited in their performance and clinical utilities. There is a need for a better predictive tool which can overcome the limitations of current predictive models. Application of machine learning methods in combination with electronic health records may provide platform for development of new-generation predictive tools.

A 5-Decade Analysis of Incidence Trends of Ischemic Stroke After Transient Ischemic Attack: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Management of transient ischemic attack (TIA) has gained significant attention during the past 25 years after several landmark studies indicated the high incidence of a subsequent stroke.

Objective

To calculate the pooled event rate of subsequent ischemic stroke within 2, 7, 30, and 90 days of a TIA and compare this incidence among the population with TIA recruited before 1999 (group A), from 1999 to 2007 (group B), and after 2007 (group C).

Data Sources

All published studies of TIA outcomes were obtained by searching PubMed from 1996, to the last update on January 31, 2020, irrespective of the study design, document type, or language.

Study Selection

Of 11 516 identified citations, 175 articles were relevant to this review. Both the classic time-based definition of TIA and the new tissue-based definition were accepted. Studies with a combined record of patients with TIA and ischemic stroke, without clinical evaluation for the index TIA, with diagnosis of index TIA event after ischemic stroke occurrence, with low suspicion for TIA, or duplicate reports of the same database were excluded.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

The study was conducted and reported according to the PRISMA, MOOSE, and EQUATOR guidelines. Critical appraisal and methodological quality assessment used the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Publication bias was visualized by funnel plots and measured by the Begg-Mazumdar rank correlation Kendall τ2 statistic and Egger bias test. Data were pooled using double arcsine transformations, DerSimonian-Laird estimator, and random-effects models.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The proportion of the early ischemic stroke after TIA within 4 evaluation intervals (2, 7, 30, and 90 days) was considered as effect size.

Results

Systematic review yielded 68 unique studies with 223 866 unique patients from 1971 to 2019. The meta-analysis included 206 455 patients (58% women) during a span of 4 decades. The overall subsequent ischemic stroke incidence rates were estimated as 2.4% (95% CI, 1.8%-3.2%) within 2 days, 3.8% (95% CI, 2.5%-5.4%) within 7 days, 4.1% (95% CI, 2.4%-6.3%) within 30 days, and 4.7% (95% CI, 3.3%-6.4%) within 90 days. There was a recurrence risk of 3.4% among group A in comparison with 2.1% in group B or 2.1% in group C within 2 days; 5.5% in group A vs 2.9% in group B or 3.2% in group C within 7 days; 6.3% in group A vs 2.9% in group B or 3.4% in group C within 30 days, and 7.4% in group A vs 3.9% in group B or 3.9% in group C within 90 days.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that TIA continues to be associated with a high risk of early stroke; however, the rate of post-TIA stroke might have decreased slightly during the past 2 decades.

Systems-wide analyses of mucosal immune responses to Helicobacter pylori at the interface between pathogenicity and symbiosis

Helicobacter pylori is the dominant member of the gastric microbiota in over half of the human population of which 5-15% develop gastritis or gastric malignancies. Immune responses to H. pylori are characterized by mixed T helper cell, cytotoxic T cell and NK cell responses. The presence of Tregs is essential for the control of gastritis and together with regulatory CX3CR1+ mononuclear phagocytes and immune-evasion strategies they enable life-long persistence of H. pylori. This H. pylori-induced regulatory environment might contribute to its cross-protective effect in inflammatory bowel disease and obesity. Here we review host-microbe interactions, the development of pro- and anti-inflammatory immune responses and how the latter contribute to H. pylori's role as beneficial member of the gut microbiota. Furthermore, we present the integration of existing and new data into a computational/mathematical model and its use for the investigation of immunological mechanisms underlying initiation, progression and outcomes of H. pylori infection.

FABS

Background and Purpose—

A large number of patients with symptoms of acute cerebral ischemia are stroke mimics (SMs). In this study, we sought to develop a scoring system (FABS) for screening and stratifying SM from acute cerebral ischemia and to identify patients who may require magnetic resonance imaging to confirm or refute a diagnosis of stroke in the emergency setting.

Methods—

We designed a scoring system: FABS (6 variables with 1 point for each variable present): absence of Facial droop, negative history of Atrial fibrillation, Age <50 years, systolic Blood pressure <150 mm Hg at presentation, history of Seizures, and isolated Sensory symptoms without weakness at presentation. We evaluated consecutive patients with symptoms of acute cerebral ischemia and a negative head computed tomography for any acute finding within 4.5 hours after symptom onset in 2 tertiary care stroke centers for validation of FABS.

Results—

A total of 784 patients (41% SMs) were evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic curve (C statistic, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93–0.98) indicated that FABS≥3 could identify patients with SM with 90% sensitivity (95% CI, 86%–93%) and 91% specificity (95% CI, 88%–93%). The negative predictive value and positive predictive value were 93% (95% CI, 90%–95%) and 87% (95% CI, 83%–91%), respectively.

Conclusions—

FABS seems to be reliable in stratifying SM from acute cerebral ischemia cases among patients in whom the head computed tomography was negative for any acute findings. It can help clinicians consider advanced imaging for further diagnosis.

Obesity and mortality after the first ischemic stroke: Is obesity paradox real?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Obesity is an established risk factor for ischemic stroke but the association of increased body mass index (BMI) with survival after ischemic stroke remains controversial. Many studies have shown that increased BMI has a "protective" effect on survival after stroke while other studies have debunked the "obesity paradox". This study aimed at examining the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality at one year in first-time ischemic stroke patients using a large dataset extracted from different resources including electronic health records.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive ischemic stroke patients captured in our Geisinger NeuroScience Ischemic Stroke (GNSIS) database. Survival in first-time ischemic stroke patients in different BMI categories was analyzed using Kaplan Meier survival curves. The predictors of mortality at one-year were assessed using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Among 6,703 first-time ischemic stroke patients, overweight and obese patients were found to have statistically decreased hazard ratio (HR) compared to the non-overweight patients (overweight patients- HR = 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52-0.72]; obese patients- HR = 0.56 [95% CI, 0.48-0.67]). Predictors with a significant increase in the hazard ratio for one-year mortality were age at the ischemic stroke event, history of neoplasm, atrial fibrillation/flutter, diabetes, myocardial infarction and heart failure.

CONCLUSION

Our study results support the obesity paradox in ischemic stroke patients as shown by a significantly decreased hazard ratio for one-year mortality among overweight and obese patients in comparison to non-overweight patients.

Estimating the stochastic bifurcation structure of cellular networks

High throughput measurement of gene expression at single-cell resolution, combined with systematic perturbation of environmental or cellular variables, provides information that can be used to generate novel insight into the properties of gene regulatory networks by linking cellular responses to external parameters. In dynamical systems theory, this information is the subject of bifurcation analysis, which establishes how system-level behaviour changes as a function of parameter values within a given deterministic mathematical model. Since cellular networks are inherently noisy, we generalize the traditional bifurcation diagram of deterministic systems theory to stochastic dynamical systems. We demonstrate how statistical methods for density estimation, in particular, mixture density and conditional mixture density estimators, can be employed to establish empirical bifurcation diagrams describing the bistable genetic switch network controlling galactose utilization in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. These approaches allow us to make novel qualitative and quantitative observations about the switching behavior of the galactose network, and provide a framework that might be useful to extract information needed for the development of quantitative network models.

Multiscale modeling of mucosal immune responses

Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T cell differentiation and tissue level cell-cell interactions was developed to illustrate the capabilities, power and scope of ENISI MSM.

Modeling the Regulatory Mechanisms by Which NLRX1 Modulates Innate Immune Responses to Helicobacter pylori Infection

Helicobacter pylori colonizes half of the world’s population as the dominant member of the gastric microbiota resulting in a lifelong chronic infection. Host responses toward the bacterium can result in asymptomatic, pathogenic or even favorable health outcomes; however, mechanisms underlying the dual role of H. pylori as a commensal versus pathogenic organism are not well characterized. Recent evidence suggests mononuclear phagocytes are largely involved in shaping dominant immunity during infection mediating the balance between host tolerance and succumbing to overt disease. We combined computational modeling, bioinformatics and experimental validation in order to investigate interactions between macrophages and intracellular H. pylori. Global transcriptomic analysis on bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDM) in a gentamycin protection assay at six time points unveiled the presence of three sequential host response waves: an early transient regulatory gene module followed by sustained and late effector responses. Kinetic behaviors of pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) are linked to differential expression of spatiotemporal response waves and function to induce effector immunity through extracellular and intracellular detection of H. pylori. We report that bacterial interaction with the host intracellular environment caused significant suppression of regulatory NLRC3 and NLRX1 in a pattern inverse to early regulatory responses. To further delineate complex immune responses and pathway crosstalk between effector and regulatory PRRs, we built a computational model calibrated using time-series RNAseq data. Our validated computational hypotheses are that: 1) NLRX1 expression regulates bacterial burden in macrophages; and 2) early host response cytokines down-regulate NLRX1 expression through a negative feedback circuit. This paper applies modeling approaches to characterize the regulatory role of NLRX1 in mechanisms of host tolerance employed by macrophages to respond to and/or to co-exist with intracellular H. pylori.

Classification of short single-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) for atrial fibrillation detection using piecewise linear spline and XGBoost

OBJECTIVE

Detection of atrial fibrillation is important for risk stratification of stroke. We developed a novel methodology to classify electrocardiograms (ECGs) to normal, atrial fibrillation and other cardiac dysrhythmias as defined by the PhysioNet Challenge 2017.

APPROACH

More specifically, we used piecewise linear splines for the feature selection and a gradient boosting algorithm for the classifier. In the algorithm, the ECG waveform is fitted by a piecewise linear spline, and morphological features relating to the piecewise linear spline coefficients are extracted. XGBoost is used to classify the morphological coefficients and heart rate variability features.

MAIN RESULTS

The performance of the algorithm was evaluated by the PhysioNet Challenge database (3658 ECGs classified by experts). Our algorithm achieved an average F ₁ score of 81% for a 10-fold cross-validation and also achieved 81% for F ₁ score on the independent testing set. This score is similar to the top 9th score (81%) in the official phase of the PhysioNet Challenge 2017.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our algorithm presents a good performance on multi-label short ECG classification with selected morphological features.

Modeling the Mechanisms by Which HIV-Associated Immunosuppression Influences HPV Persistence at the Oral Mucosa

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients are at an increased risk of co-infection with human papilloma virus (HPV), and subsequent malignancies such as oral cancer. To determine the role of HIV-associated immune suppression on HPV persistence and pathogenesis, and to investigate the mechanisms underlying the modulation of HPV infection and oral cancer by HIV, we developed a mathematical model of HIV/HPV co-infection. Our model captures known immunological and molecular features such as impaired HPV-specific effector T helper 1 (Th1) cell responses, and enhanced HPV infection due to HIV. We used the model to determine HPV prognosis in the presence of HIV infection, and identified conditions under which HIV infection alters HPV persistence in the oral mucosa system. The model predicts that conditions leading to HPV persistence during HIV/HPV co-infection are the permissive immune environment created by HIV and molecular interactions between the two viruses. The model also determines when HPV infection continues to persist in the short run in a co-infected patient undergoing antiretroviral therapy. Lastly, the model predicts that, under efficacious antiretroviral treatment, HPV infections will decrease in the long run due to the restoration of CD4+ T cell numbers and protective immune responses.