Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the high Arctic

Recently accumulated evidence has documented a climate impact on the demography and dynamics of single species, yet the impact at the community level is poorly understood. Here, we show that in Svalbard in the high Arctic, extreme weather events synchronize population fluctuations across an entire community of resident vertebrate herbivores and cause lagged correlations with the secondary consumer, the arctic fox. This synchronization is mainly driven by heavy rain on snow that encapsulates the vegetation in ice and blocks winter forage availability for herbivores. Thus, indirect and bottom-up climate forcing drives the population dynamics across all overwintering vertebrates. Icing is predicted to become more frequent in the circumpolar Arctic and may therefore strongly affect terrestrial ecosystem characteristics.

Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

Broad-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by climate change-induced phenological mismatch, using almost four decades of individual-level life-history data from a great tit population. In this population, warmer springs have generated a mismatch between the annual breeding time and the seasonal food peak, intensifying directional selection for earlier laying dates. Interannual variation in population mismatch has not, however, affected population growth. We demonstrated a mechanism contributing to this uncoupling, whereby fitness losses associated with mismatch are counteracted by fitness gains due to relaxed competition. These findings imply that natural populations may be able to tolerate considerable maladaptation driven by shifting climatic conditions without undergoing immediate declines.

How life history influences population dynamics in fluctuating environments

A major question in ecology is how age-specific variation in demographic parameters influences population dynamics. Based on long-term studies of growing populations of birds and mammals, we analyze population dynamics by using fluctuations in the total reproductive value of the population. This enables us to account for random fluctuations in age distribution. The influence of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the population dynamics of a species decreased with generation time. Variation in age-specific contributions to total reproductive value and to stochastic components of population dynamics was correlated with the position of the species along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. Younger age classes relative to the generation time accounted for larger contributions to the total reproductive value and to demographic stochasticity in "slow" than in "fast" species, in which many age classes contributed more equally. In contrast, fluctuations in population growth rate attributable to stochastic environmental variation involved a larger proportion of all age classes independent of life history. Thus, changes in population growth rates can be surprisingly well explained by basic species-specific life-history characteristics.

The extended Moran effect and large-scale synchronous fluctuations in the size of great tit and blue tit populations

1. Synchronous fluctuations of geographically separated populations are in general explained by the Moran effect, i.e. a common influence on the local population dynamics of environmental variables that are correlated in space. Empirical support for such a Moran effect has been difficult to provide, mainly due to problems separating out effects of local population dynamics, demographic stochasticity and dispersal that also influence the spatial scaling of population processes. Here we generalize the Moran effect by decomposing the spatial autocorrelation function for fluctuations in the size of great tit Parus major and blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus populations into components due to spatial correlations in the environmental noise, local differences in the strength of density regulation and the effects of demographic stochasticity. 2. Differences between localities in the strength of density dependence and nonlinearity in the density regulation had a small effect on population synchrony, whereas demographic stochasticity reduced the effects of the spatial correlation in environmental noise on the spatial correlations in population size by 21.7% and 23.3% in the great tit and blue tit, respectively. 3. Different environmental variables, such as beech mast and climate, induce a common environmental forcing on the dynamics of central European great and blue tit populations. This generates synchronous fluctuations in the size of populations located several hundred kilometres apart. 4. Although these environmental variables were autocorrelated over large areas, their contribution to the spatial synchrony in the population fluctuations differed, dependent on the spatial scaling of their effects on the local population dynamics. We also demonstrate that this effect can lead to the paradoxical result that a common environmental variable can induce spatial desynchronization of the population fluctuations. 5. This demonstrates that a proper understanding of the ecological consequences of environmental changes, especially those that occur simultaneously over large areas, will require information about the spatial scaling of their effects on local population dynamics.

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.

Demographic routes to variability and regulation in bird populations

There is large interspecific variation in the magnitude of population fluctuations, even among closely related species. The factors generating this variation are not well understood, primarily because of the challenges of separating the relative impact of variation in population size from fluctuations in the environment. Here, we show using demographic data from 13 bird populations that magnitudes of fluctuations in population size are mainly driven by stochastic fluctuations in the environment. Regulation towards an equilibrium population size occurs through density-dependent mortality. At small population sizes, population dynamics are primarily driven by environment-driven variation in recruitment, whereas close to the carrying capacity K, variation in population growth is more strongly influenced by density-dependent mortality of both juveniles and adults. Our results provide evidence for the hypothesis proposed by Lack that population fluctuations in birds arise from temporal variation in the difference between density-independent recruitment and density-dependent mortality during the non-breeding season.

Age, size, and spatiotemporal variation in ovulation patterns of a seasonal breeder, the Norwegian moose (Alces alces)

In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction is an important fitness component. However, in ungulates, our understanding of this biological process is limited. Here we analyze how age and body mass affect spatiotemporal variation in timing of ovulation of 6,178 Norwegian moose. We introduced a parametric statistical model to obtain inferences about the seasonal timing of ovulation peak, the degree of synchrony among individuals, and the proportion of individuals that ovulate. These components showed much more spatiotemporal variation than previously reported. Young (primiparous) and old (> or =11.5 years of age) females ovulated later than prime-aged (2.5-10.5 years of age) females. In all age classes, ovulation was delayed with decreasing body mass. Ovulation rates were lower and more variable among primiparous females than among older females. Young females required higher body mass than older females did to ovulate. The body-mass-to-ovulation relationship varied with age, showed large regional variation, and differed among years within region. These results suggest that (1) environmental and population characteristics contribute to shape seasonal variation in the breeding pattern and (2) large regional variation exists in the size-dependent age at maturity in moose. Hence, the life-history trade-off between reproduction and body growth should differ regionally in moose.

Geographical variation in the influence of density dependence and climate on the recruitment of Norwegian moose

The effects of variation in climate on population dynamics are likely to differ within the distributional range of a species, yet the consequences of such regional variation on demography and population dynamics are rarely considered. Here we examine how density dependence and different climate variables affect spatio-temporal variation in recruitment rates of Norwegian moose using data collected over a large geographical area during the hunting season. After accounting for observation error by a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, temporal variation in recruitment rates was relatively independent of fluctuations in local population size. In fact, a positive relationship was as common as a density-dependent decrease in fecundity rates. In general, high recruitment rates were found during autumn 1 year after years with a warm February, and after a warm May or cold June in year t - 1 or in year t. Large regional variation was also found in the effects of some of the weather variables, especially during spring. These patterns demonstrate both direct and delayed effects of weather on the recruitment of moose that possibly operate through an effect of body mass on the proportion of the females that sexually mature as 1.5 or 2.5 years old.

How are species interactions structured in species-rich communities? A new method for analysing time-series data

Estimation of intra- and interspecific interactions from time-series on species-rich communities is challenging due to the high number of potentially interacting species pairs. The previously proposed sparse interactions model overcomes this challenge by assuming that most species pairs do not interact. We propose an alternative model that does not assume that any of the interactions are necessarily zero, but summarizes the influences of individual species by a small number of community-level drivers. The community-level drivers are defined as linear combinations of species abundances, and they may thus represent e.g. the total abundance of all species or the relative proportions of different functional groups. We show with simulated and real data how our approach can be used to compare different hypotheses on community structure. In an empirical example using aquatic microorganisms, the community-level drivers model clearly outperformed the sparse interactions model in predicting independent validation data.

Predicting fluctuations of reintroduced ibex populations: the importance of density dependence, environmental stochasticity and uncertain population estimates

1. Development of population projections requires estimates of observation error, parameters characterizing expected dynamics such as the specific population growth rate and the form of density regulation, the influence of stochastic factors on population dynamics, and quantification of the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. 2. Here we construct a Population Prediction Interval (PPI) based on Bayesian state space modelling of future population growth of 28 reintroduced ibex populations in Switzerland that have been censused for up to 68 years. Our aim is to examine whether the interpopulation variation in the precision of the population projections is related to differences in the parameters characterizing the expected dynamics, in the effects of environmental stochasticity, in the magnitude of uncertainty in the population parameters, or in the observation error. 3. The error in the population censuses was small. The median coefficient of variation in the estimates across populations was 5.1%. 4. Significant density regulation was present in 53.6% of the populations, but was in general weak. 5. The width of the PPI calculated for a period of 5 years showed large variation among populations, and was explained by differences in the impact of environmental stochasticity on population dynamics. 6. In spite of the high accuracy in population estimates, the uncertainty in the parameter estimates was still large. This uncertainty affected the precision in the population predictions, but it decreased with increasing length of study period, mainly due to higher precision in the estimates of the environmental variance in the longer time-series. 7. These analyses reveal that predictions of future population fluctuations of weakly density-regulated populations such as the ibex often become uncertain. Credible population predictions require that this uncertainty is properly quantified.

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions.

Annual variation in maternal age and calving date generate cohort effects in moose (Alces alces) body mass

A general feature of the demography of large ungulates is that many demographic traits are dependent on female body mass at early ages. Thus, identifying the factors affecting body mass variation can give important mechanistic understanding of demographic processes. Here we relate individual variation in autumn and winter body mass of moose calves living at low density on an island in northern Norway to characteristics of their mother, and examine how these relationships are affected by annual variation in population density and climate. Body mass increased with increasing age of their mother, was lower for calves born late in the spring, decreased with litter size and was larger for males than for female calves. No residual effects of variation in density and climate were present after controlling for annual variation in mother age and calving date. The annual variation in adult female age structure and calving date explained a large part (71-75%) of the temporal variation in calf body mass. These results support the hypotheses that (a) body mass of moose calves are affected by qualities associated with mother age (e.g. body condition, calving date); and (b) populations living at low densities are partly buffered against temporal fluctuations in the environment.

Lack of compensatory body growth in a high performance moose Alces alces population

Considerable work has been done on disentangling important factors determining early development in body size, yet our knowledge of the extent to which animals living under varying conditions can achieve catch-up growth for a bad start in life is limited. Here, we investigated how body mass at the age of 8 months influenced adult body mass in a moose Alces alces population living under excellent environmental conditions on the island of Vega in northern Norway. We also investigated if mother age and birth date effects on calf body mass persisted until adulthood. We show that neither males nor females were able to show compensatory growth before they reached adulthood, and that part of the variation in adult body mass may have been due to variation in mother age and date of birth. The pattern observed in males can be related to their growth strategy in relation to reproduction, while such results were not expected in females where size-dependent start of reproduction is likely to interact with body growth. We suggest that the good environmental conditions experienced on Vega led to females having small somatic costs of an early start of reproduction or that larger females were able to acquire more resources for growth than their smaller conspecifics. In both cases, females that postpone their first reproduction may not be able to achieve catch-up growth for their lower early body mass compared to females that start reproduction at an early age. Our results concur with previous studies indicating that compensatory growth is weak in moose, increasing the likelihood that variation in life history characters are also transferred between generations.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.

Species diversity and community similarity in fluctuating environments: parametric approaches using species abundance distributions

Here we review recent advances in characterizing pattern of variation in community structure in space and time based on parametric approaches utilizing the full distribution of abundances of species rather than some summary indices. Assessment of biodiversity based on the structure of rank-abundance plots or simple species diversity indices, which describe properties of the sample of individuals, may reveal limited information about the underlying species abundance distribution of the community because the number of individuals counted are dependent on the sampling intensity. For instance, assuming Poisson sampling and an underlying lognormal species abundance distribution implies that observed abundances (counts) are a sample from a Poisson lognormal distribution. A convenient property of this distribution is that the estimate of σ(2) can be used as an inverse measure of species diversity in a community as well as the number of unobserved species can be estimated approximately without bias for unknown sampling intensities. If two communities can be described by a bivariate lognormal species abundance model, then the correlation between the log abundances of species in the two communities is an index of similarity that can be estimated without knowledge of sampling intensities using the bivariate Poisson lognormal distribution. This method is even applicable as an approximation when the abundance distribution deviates from the lognormal. An analysis of the interrelationship between the parameters of the lognormal species abundance distribution in communities of species from a wide variety of taxa shows that the canonical hypothesis of Preston in general, for a given number of species, gives far too large variances in the distribution of log abundances. A general feature in community dynamics is that a large component of the variance in the species abundance distribution is caused by heterogeneity among species in the population dynamics as well as environmental noise. This pattern is in contrast to the assumptions of the neutral theory of community dynamics. The choice of species abundance distribution should be a consequence of specific assumptions about the dynamics of the species. We suggest that such specific assumptions for the choice of species abundance model will facilitate more robust comparisons of changes in community structure in time and space.