The Cost-Effectiveness of the BEAT-TB Regimen for Pre-Extensively Drug-Resistant TB

OBJECTIVE

To measure the economic impacts of the longer pre-XDR-TB treatment regimen and the shorter BEAT-TB India regimen.

METHODS

In the current study, the economic impacts of the current 18-month pre-XDR-TB treatment regimen and the 6-9 month BEAT-TB regimen were evaluated using an economic model via a decision tree analysis from a societal perspective. The incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the introduction of the BEAT-TB regimen for pre-XDR-TB patients were estimated.

RESULTS

For a cohort of 1000 pre-XDR-TB patients, we found that the BEAT-TB India regimen yielded higher undiscounted life years (40,548 vs. 21,009) and more QALYs gained (27,633 vs. 15,812) than the 18-month regimen. The BEAT-TB India regimen was found to be cost-saving, with an incremental cost of USD -128,651 when compared to the 18-month regimen. The current analysis did not consider the possibility of reduced TB recurrence after use of the BEAT-TB regimen, so it might have under-estimated the benefits.

CONCLUSION

As a lower-cost intervention with improved health outcomes, the BEAT-TB India regimen is dominant when compared to the 18-month regimen.

Guidance for the Evaluation of Tuberculosis Diagnostics That Meet the World Health Organization (WHO) Target Product Profiles: An Introduction to WHO Process and Study Design Principles

Existing high-priority target product profiles (TPPs) of the World Health Organization (WHO) establish important needs for tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic development. Building on this earlier work, this guidance series aims to provide study guidance for performing accuracy studies of novel diagnostic products that may meet the 4 high-priority WHO TPPs and thus enable adequate evidence generation to inform a WHO evidence review process. Diagnostic accuracy studies represent a fundamental step in the validation of all tests. Unfortunately, such studies often have limitations in design, execution, and reporting, leading to low certainty of the evidence about true test performance, which can delay or impede policy and scale-up decisions. This introductory paper outlines the following: (1) the purpose of this series of papers on study guidance; (2) WHO evidence needs and process for the development of policy guidelines for new TB diagnostic tests; and (3) study design considerations, ie, general diagnostic study considerations, intended use of test and role in the clinical pathway, choice of population and setting, index-test specific issues, suitable reference standard and comparators, study flow and specimen issues, and finally key issues beyond accuracy that should be considered. The other 4 papers in this series will provide more detailed guidance for each of the 4 WHO high-priority TPPs. By increasing the clarity around the clinical evaluation needs for tests that have the potential to meet the TPP specifications, we hope to support harmonized evidence generation and enable the WHO review process towards meeting the WHO End TB Strategy targets for reducing the incidence and mortality associated with TB.

Realizing the "40 by 2022" Commitment from the United Nations High-Level Meeting on the Fight to End Tuberculosis: What Will It Take to Meet Rapid Diagnostic Testing Needs?

Existing rapid diagnostics offer faster and more sensitive diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) and simultaneous detection of multidrug-resistant TB. A 5-fold increase in investment in these tools is needed to meet the needs of the TB community and the United Nations’ ambitious 40 million by 2022 diagnosis and treatment target.

The potential gains from full adoption of World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended rapid diagnostics (WRDs) for tuberculosis (TB) are significant, but there is no current analysis of the additional investment needed to reach this goal. We sought to estimate the necessary investment in instruments, tests, and money, using Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), which detects Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) and tests for resistance to rifampicin (RIF), as an example. An existing calculator for TB diagnostic needs was adapted to estimate the Xpert needs for a group of 24 countries with high TB burdens. This analysis assumed that countries will achieve the case-finding commitments agreed to at the recent United Nations High-Level Meeting on the Fight to End Tuberculosis, and that countries would adopt the WHO-recommended algorithm in which all people with signs and symptoms of TB receive an Xpert test. When compared to the current investments in these countries, this baseline model revealed that countries would require a 4-fold increase in the number of Xpert modules and a 6-fold increase in the number of Xpert test cartridges per year to meet their full testing needs. The incremental cost of the additional instruments for these countries would total approximately US$474 million, plus an incremental cost each year of cartridges of approximately $586 million, or a 5-fold increase over current investments. A sensitivity analysis revealed a variety of possible changes under alternative scenarios, but most of these changes either do not meet the global goals, are unrealistic, or would result in even greater investment needs. These findings suggest that a major investment is needed in WRD capacity to implement the recommended diagnostic algorithm for TB and reach the case-finding commitments by 2022.

Guidance for Studies Evaluating the Accuracy of Sputum-Based Tests to Diagnose Tuberculosis

Tests that can replace sputum smear microscopy have been identified as a top priority diagnostic need for tuberculosis by the World Health Organization. High-quality evidence on diagnostic accuracy for tests that may meet this need is an essential requirement to inform decisions about policy and scale-up. However, test accuracy studies are often of low and inconsistent quality and poorly reported, leading to uncertainty about true test performance. Here we provide guidance for the design of diagnostic test accuracy studies of sputum smear-replacement tests. Such studies should have a cross-sectional or cohort design, enrolling either a consecutive series or a random sample of patients who require evaluation for tuberculosis. Adults with respiratory symptoms are the target population. The reference standard should at a minimum be a single, automated, liquid culture, but additional cultures, follow-up, clinical case definition, and specific measures to understand discordant results should also be included. Inclusion of smear microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (or MTB/RIF Ultra) as comparators is critical to allow broader comparability and generalizability of results, because disease spectrum can vary between studies and affects relative test performance. Given the complex nature of sputum (the primary specimen type used for pulmonary TB), careful design and reporting of the specimen flow is essential. Test characteristics other than accuracy (such as feasibility, implementation considerations, and data on impact on patient, population and health systems outcomes) are also important aspects.

Scale and Ambition in the Engagement of Private Providers for Tuberculosis Care and Prevention

The tuberculosis (TB) community knows the importance of engaging private providers to reach critical TB targets, and knows how to engage successfully. The next challenge is to transition such efforts to government stewardship and financing in order to reach scale.

How tuberculosis programs can navigate the world of social health insurance

Many countries with a high tuberculosis (TB) burden are adopting social health insurance (SHI) schemes. However, the national TB programs (NTPs) of these countries are only just starting to grapple with the effects of SHI on their operations. Here, we review the rationale for analyzing TB programs in light of the changes brought by SHI. We consider the influence of certain purchasing decisions on TB care and prevention, and the opportunities that SHI may present for NTPs to broaden private sector engagement, extract TB data across the health sector, and facilitate quality improvement efforts. We also explore which functions are likely to be performed by SHI systems, which require special attention with the advent of SHI, and the metrics that indicate how much of TB care seeking and treatment can be reached and influenced by SHI. SHI presents certain risks for TB programs, but also opportunities to adapt to a more modern health system and to bring quality TB care and treatment to more people.

Onions and prevalence surveys: how to analyze and quantify tuberculosis case-finding gaps

Finding the missing 4 million tuberculosis (TB) patients is one of the greatest challenges facing the TB community. The optimal approaches to this will vary by country, but there is no consistent process for analyzing the potential benefit of different strategies, or for deciding which approaches are most appropriate for a given setting. Here, I bring together the Onion Model-as a way to think through health system structures-and evidence from prevalence surveys. The result is a structured process for prioritizing different strategies for case finding. Outcomes vary widely by setting, pointing to the importance of each country undertaking such a prioritization process.

Genetic sequencing for surveillance of drug resistance in tuberculosis in highly endemic countries: a multi-country population-based surveillance study

Background

In many countries, regular monitoring of the emergence of resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs is hampered by the limitations of phenotypic testing for drug susceptibility. We therefore evaluated the use of genetic sequencing for surveillance of drug resistance in tuberculosis.

Methods

Population-level surveys were done in hospitals and clinics in seven countries (Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, and Ukraine) to evaluate the use of genetic sequencing to estimate the resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates to rifampicin, isoniazid, ofloxacin, moxifloxacin, pyrazinamide, kanamycin, amikacin, and capreomycin. For each drug, we assessed the accuracy of genetic sequencing by a comparison of the adjusted prevalence of resistance, measured by genetic sequencing, with the true prevalence of resistance, determined by phenotypic testing.

Findings

Isolates were taken from 7094 patients with tuberculosis who were enrolled in the study between November, 2009, and May, 2014. In all tuberculosis cases, the overall pooled sensitivity values for predicting resistance by genetic sequencing were 91% (95% CI 87–94) for rpoB (rifampicin resistance), 86% (74–93) for katG, inhA, and fabG promoter combined (isoniazid resistance), 54% (39–68) for pncA (pyrazinamide resistance), 85% (77–91) for gyrA and gyrB combined (ofloxacin resistance), and 88% (81–92) for gyrA and gyrB combined (moxifloxacin resistance). For nearly all drugs and in most settings, there was a large overlap in the estimated prevalence of drug resistance by genetic sequencing and the estimated prevalence by phenotypic testing.

Interpretation

Genetic sequencing can be a valuable tool for surveillance of drug resistance, providing new opportunities to monitor drug resistance in tuberculosis in resource-poor countries. Before its widespread adoption for surveillance purposes, there is a need to standardise DNA extraction methods, recording and reporting nomenclature, and data interpretation.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development, Global Alliance for Tuberculosis Drug Development.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis

Background

Despite improvements in treatment success rates for tuberculosis (TB), current six-month regimen duration remains a challenge for many National TB Programmes, health systems, and patients. There is increasing investment in the development of shortened regimens with a number of candidates in phase 3 trials.

Methods

We developed an individual-based decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical four-month regimen for first-line treatment of TB, assuming non-inferiority to current regimens of six-month duration. The model was populated using extensive, empirically-collected data to estimate the economic impact on both health systems and patients of regimen shortening for first-line TB treatment in South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Tanzania. We explicitly considered ‘real world’ constraints such as sub-optimal guideline adherence.

Results

From a societal perspective, a shortened regimen, priced at USD1 per day, could be a cost-saving option in South Africa, Brazil, and Tanzania, but would not be cost-effective in Bangladesh when compared to one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating ‘real world’ constraints reduces cost-effectiveness. Patient-incurred costs could be reduced in all settings. From a health service perspective, increased drug costs need to be balanced against decreased delivery costs. The new regimen would remain a cost-effective option, when compared to each countries’ GDP per capita, even if new drugs cost up to USD7.5 and USD53.8 per day in South Africa and Brazil; this threshold was above USD1 in Tanzania and under USD1 in Bangladesh.

Conclusion

Reducing the duration of first-line TB treatment has the potential for substantial economic gains from a patient perspective. The potential economic gains for health services may also be important, but will be context-specific and dependent on the appropriate pricing of any new regimen.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2064-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mandatory tuberculosis case notification in high tuberculosis-incidence countries: policy and practice

Mandatory tuberculosis (TB) notification is an important policy under the End TB Strategy, but little is known about its enforcement especially in high TB incidence countries. We undertook a literature search for selected high-incidence countries, followed by a questionnaire-based survey among key informants in countries with high-, intermediate- and low-TB incidence. Published literature on TB notification in high-incidence countries was limited, but it did illustrate some of the current barriers to notification and the importance of electronic systems to facilitate reporting by private providers. Required survey data were successfully gathered from 40 out of 54 countries contacted. TB is notifiable in 11 out of 15 high-incidence countries, all 16 intermediate-incidence countries, and all nine low-incidence countries contacted. TB case notification by public sector facilities is generally systematised, but few high-incidence countries had systems and tools to facilitate notification from private care providers. In the context of the new End TB Strategy aimed at eventual TB elimination, all countries should have TB on their national list of notifiable diseases. Enhancing the ease of notification by private providers is essential for effective implementation. To that effect, investing in strengthening disease surveillance systems and introducing digital tools to simplify notification are logical ways forward.

Population-based resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates to pyrazinamide and fluoroquinolones: results from a multicountry surveillance project

Background

Pyrazinamide and fluoroquinolones are essential antituberculosis drugs in new rifampicin-sparing regimens. However, little information about the extent of resistance to these drugs at the population level is available.

Methods

In a molecular epidemiology analysis, we used population-based surveys from Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Pakistan, and South Africa to investigate resistance to pyrazinamide and fluoroquinolones among patients with tuberculosis. Resistance to pyrazinamide was assessed by gene sequencing with the detection of resistance-conferring mutations in the pncA gene, and susceptibility testing to fluoroquinolones was conducted using the MGIT system.

Findings

Pyrazinamide resistance was assessed in 4972 patients. Levels of resistance varied substantially in the surveyed settings (3·0–42·1%). In all settings, pyrazinamide resistance was significantly associated with rifampicin resistance. Among 5015 patients who underwent susceptibility testing to fluoroquinolones, proportions of resistance ranged from 1·0–16·6% for ofloxacin, to 0·5–12·4% for levofloxacin, and 0·9–14·6% for moxifloxacin when tested at 0·5 μg/mL. High levels of ofloxacin resistance were detected in Pakistan. Resistance to moxifloxacin and gatifloxacin when tested at 2 μg/mL was low in all countries.

Interpretation

Although pyrazinamide resistance was significantly associated with rifampicin resistance, this drug may still be effective in 19–63% of patients with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Even though the high level of resistance to ofloxacin found in Pakistan is worrisome because it might be the expression of extensive and unregulated use of fluoroquinolones in some parts of Asia, the negligible levels of resistance to fourth-generation fluoroquinolones documented in all survey sites is an encouraging finding. Rational use of this class of antibiotics should therefore be ensured to preserve its effectiveness.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development, Global Alliance for Tuberculosis Drug Development.

Shortened first-line TB treatment in Brazil: potential cost savings for patients and health services

BACKGROUND

Shortened treatment regimens for tuberculosis are under development to improve treatment outcomes and reduce costs. We estimated potential savings from a societal perspective in Brazil following the introduction of a hypothetical four-month regimen for tuberculosis treatment.

METHODS

Data were gathered in ten randomly selected health facilities in Rio de Janeiro. Health service costs were estimated using an ingredient approach. Patient costs were estimated from a questionnaire administered to 126 patients. Costs per visits and per case treated were analysed according to the type of therapy: self-administered treatment (SAT), community- and facility-directly observed treatment (community-DOT, facility-DOT).

RESULTS

During the last 2 months of treatment, the largest savings could be expected for community-DOT; on average USD 17,351-18,203 and USD 43,660-45,856 (bottom-up and top-down estimates) per clinic. Savings to patients could also be expected as the median (interquartile range) patient-related costs during the two last months were USD 108 (13-291), USD 93 (36-239) and USD 11 (7-126), respectively for SAT, facility-DOT and community-DOT.

CONCLUSION

Introducing a four-month regimen may result in significant cost savings for both the health service and patients, especially the poorest. In particular, a community-DOT strategy, including treatment at home, could maximise health services savings while limiting patient costs. Our cost estimates are likely to be conservative because a 4-month regimen could hypothetically increase the proportion of patients cured by reducing the number of patients defaulting and we did not include the possible cost benefits from the subsequent prevention of costs due to downstream transmission averted and rapid clinical improvement with less side effects in the last two months.

Achieving Systemic and Scalable Private Sector Engagement in Tuberculosis Care and Prevention in Asia

William Wells and colleagues describe opportunities for improving public-private health provider partnerships to tackle TB.

Patient costs during tuberculosis treatment in Bangladesh and Tanzania: the potential of shorter regimens

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the costs incurred by patients during the intensive and continuation phases of the current 6-month tuberculosis (TB) regimen in Bangladesh and Tanzania, and thus identify potential benefits to patients of a shorter, 4-month treatment regimen.

DESIGN

The validated Stop TB patient cost questionnaire was adapted and used in interviews with 190 patients in the continuation phase of treatment with current regimens.

RESULTS

In both countries, overall patient costs were lower during 2 months of the continuation phase (US$74 in Tanzania and US$56 in Bangladesh) than during the 2 months of the intensive phase of treatment (US$150 and US$111, respectively). However, continuation phase patient costs still represented 89% and 77% of the 2-month average national income in the respective countries. Direct travel costs in some settings were kept low by local delivery system features such as community treatment observation. Lost productivity and costs for supplementary foods remained significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Although it is not a straightforward exercise to determine the exact magnitude of likely savings, a shorter regimen would reduce out-of-pocket expenses incurred by patients in the most recent 2 months of the continuation phase and allow an earlier return to productive activities.

Alignment of new tuberculosis drug regimens and drug susceptibility testing: a framework for action

New tuberculosis drug regimens are creating new priorities for drug susceptibility testing (DST) and surveillance. To minimise turnaround time, rapid DST will need to be prioritised, but developers of these assays will need better data about the molecular mechanisms of resistance. Efforts are underway to link mutations with drug resistance and to develop strain collections to enable assessment of new diagnostic assays. In resource-limited settings, DST might not be appropriate for all patients with tuberculosis. Surveillance data and modelling will help country stakeholders to design appropriate DST algorithms and to decide whether to change drug regimens. Finally, development of practical DST assays is needed so that, in countries where surveillance and modelling show that DST is advisable, these assays can be used to guide clinical decisions for individual patients. If combined judiciously during both development and implementation, new tuberculosis regimens and new DST assays have enormous potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce the burden of disease.

The multi-step process of building TB/HIV collaboration in Cambodia

Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS have synergistic health impacts in terms of disease development and progression. Therefore, collaborative TB and HIV/AIDS activities are a logical health systems response. However, the establishment of these activities presents a challenge for countries that have strong vertical disease programs that differ in their implementation philosophies. Here, we review the process by which TB/HIV collaboration was established in Cambodia. A cycle of overlapping and mutually reinforcing initiatives - local research; piloted implementation with multiple options; and several rounds of policy formulation guided by a cross-functional Technical Working Group - was used to drive nationwide introduction of a full set of TB/HIV collaborative activities. Senior Ministry of Health officials and partner organizations brought early attention to TB/HIV. Both national programs implemented initial screening and testing interventions, even in the absence of a detailed, overarching framework. The use of multiple options for HIV testing identified which programmatic options worked best, and early implementation and pilots determined what unanswered questions required further research. Local conduct of this research - on co-treatment timing and TB symptom screening - speeded adoption of the results into policy guidance, and clarified the relative roles of the two programs. Roll-out is continuing, and results for a variety of key indicators, including screening PLHIV for TB, and testing TB patients for HIV, are at 70-80% and climbing. This experience in Cambodia illustrates the influence of health research on policy, and demonstrates that clear policy guidance, the pursuit of incremental advances, and the use of different approaches to generate evidence can overcome structural barriers to change and bring direct benefits to patients.

Implications of the current tuberculosis treatment landscape for future regimen change

BACKGROUND

The current tuberculosis (TB) treatment landscape has been studied extensively, but researchers rarely consider how it creates challenges or opportunities for future regimen change.

METHODS

In 166 stakeholder interviews in the TB high-burden countries (HBCs), we investigated areas of first-line TB treatment and control that would affect, and be affected by, a future TB regimen change. Responses were compared with existing standardized data.

RESULTS

Public sector regimens are converging towards a single standard, which facilitates comparison with a single control arm from clinical trials. However, final product design is challenging if the goal is fixed-dose combinations and patient kits, whose current widespread use addresses continuing weaknesses in drug management. Any product must address broad groups, as relatively low levels of drug susceptibility testing (DST) do not allow for individualized therapy. Finally, the protection of new drugs from the development of resistance will be challenging, as the implementation of directly observed therapy and public-private mix programs is incomplete, and substantial private sectors have been identified as early adopters of these drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Health systems for TB treatment and control must be improved not only to allow better implementation of current treatments but also to set the stage for implementation of new, improved TB regimens.

Adoption of new health products in low and middle income settings: how product development partnerships can support country decision making

When a new health product becomes available, countries have a choice to adopt the product into their national health systems or to pursue an alternate strategy to address the public health problem. Here, we describe the role for product development partnerships (PDPs) in supporting this decision-making process. PDPs are focused on developing new products to respond to health problems prevalent in low and middle income settings. The impact of these products within public sector health systems can only be realized after a country policy process. PDPs may be the organizations most familiar with the evidence which assists decision making, and this generally translates into involvement in international policy development, but PDPs have limited reach into endemic countries. In a few individual countries, there may be more extensive involvement in tracking adoption activities and generating local evidence. This local PDP involvement begins with geographical prioritization based on disease burden, relationships established during clinical trials, PDP in-country resources, and other factors. Strategies adopted by PDPs to establish a presence in endemic countries vary from the opening of country offices to engagement of part-time consultants or with long-term or ad hoc committees. Once a PDP commits to support country decision making, the approaches vary, but include country consultations, regional meetings, formation of regional, product-specific committees, support of in-country advocates, development of decision-making frameworks, provision of technical assistance to aid therapeutic or diagnostic guideline revision, and conduct of stakeholder and Phase 4 studies. To reach large numbers of countries, the formation of partnerships, particularly with WHO, are essential. At this early stage, impact data are limited. But available evidence suggests PDPs can and do play an important catalytic role in their support of country decision making in a number of target countries.

Tuberculosis regimen change in high-burden countries

BACKGROUND

Experience with past tuberculosis (TB) regimen changes can guide future regimen changes.

METHODS

To explore the process, major players and procedural success factors for recent public sector TB regimen changes, we conducted 166 interviews of country stakeholders in 21 of the 22 TB high-burden countries (HBCs).

RESULTS

Stakeholders described 40 distinct regimen changes for drug-susceptible TB. Once countries committed to considering a change, the average timing was ∼1 year for decision-making and ∼2 years for roll-out. Stakeholders more often cited concerns that were program-based (e.g., logistics and cost) rather than patient-focused (e.g., side effects), and patient representatives were seldom part of decision making. Decision-making bodies in higher-income HBCs had more formalized procedures and fewer international participants. Pilot studies focused on logistics were more common than effectiveness studies, and the evidence base was often felt to be insufficient. Once implementation started, weaknesses in drug management were often exposed, with additional complications if local manufacturing was required. Best practices for regimen change included early engagement of budgeting staff, procurement staff, regulators and manufacturers.

CONCLUSIONS

Future decision makers will benefit from strengthened decision-making bodies, patient input, early and comprehensive planning, and regimens and evidence that address local, practical implementation issues.

Estimating the market for tuberculosis drugs in industrialized and developing nations

BACKGROUND

The successful introduction of new drugs into low- and middle-income countries requires an understanding of the existing market size and market dynamics for the therapeutic area of interest. The drug markets in these countries are, however, less well understood than those in high-income countries.

METHODS

The global market for tuberculosis (TB) drugs was estimated by studying in detail six high-burden countries and four high-income countries, followed by extrapolation. Data were derived from existing pharmaceutical audit databases and interviews with government officials, medical staff and suppliers.

RESULTS

The use of qualitative inputs to inform the collection of quantitative information, notably to identify where the major flows of TB drugs are located, allowed a confident estimate of the global market for first-line TB drugs. Final ranges were US$261-316 million or US$310-418 million, depending on whether case notification rates or incidence were used for extrapolations.

CONCLUSIONS

An estimation of the global TB drug market is made more reliable by a qualitative understanding of TB drug distribution pathways, which differ greatly among countries. The understanding of this structure in key high-burden countries provides the basis for a simpler update of the market estimate in the future.

Patterns of disease progression and outcomes in a randomized trial testing ABVD alone for patients with limited-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND

In the National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group/Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group HD.6 trial, progression-free survival was better in patients randomized to therapy that included radiation, compared to doxorubicin (Adriamycin), bleomycin, vinblastine and dacarbazine (ABVD) alone. We now evaluate patterns of progression and subsequent outcomes of patients with progression.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

After a median of 4.2 years, 33 patients have progressed. Two radiation oncologists determined whether sites of progression were confined within radiation fields. Freedom from second progression (FF2P) and freedom from second progression or death (FF2P/D) were compared.

RESULTS

Reviewers agreed for the extended (kappa = 0.87) and involved field (kappa = 1.0) analyses. Progression after ABVD alone was more frequently confined within both the extended (20/23 vs. 3/10; P = 0.002) and involved fields (16/23 vs. 2/10; P = 0.02). There was no difference in FF2P between groups [5-year estimate 99% (radiation) versus 96% (ABVD alone)] [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-15.6; P = 0.14]; the 5-year estimates of FF2P/D were 94% in each group (HR = 1.04, 95% CI 0.41-2.63; P = 0.93).

CONCLUSION

Treatment that includes radiation reduces the risk of progressive Hodgkin lymphoma in sites that receive this therapy, but we are unable to detect differences in FF2P or FF2P/D.

The returning tide: how China, the world's most populous country, is building a competitive research base

When China turned its back on the Cultural Revolution, it aimed to build a thriving capitalist sector. It got one. Now, it wants a world-class research enterprise. How far has it progressed in the biosciences, how did it get there, and how far does it have to go?

Michael Rape interviewed by William A. Wells about the biology of destruction

Michael Rape says that ubiquitination's diversity and adaptability makes it an ideal entry point for understanding vast swaths of biology.

The returning tide: how China, the world's most populous country, is building a competitive research base

When China turned its back on the Cultural Revolution, it aimed to build a thriving capitalist sector. It got one. Now, it wants a world-class research enterprise. How far has it progressed in the biosciences, how did it get there, and how far does it have to go?

Full of sound and fury, but signifying something: XVI International AIDS Conference, Toronto, Canada, August 13-18, 2006

The biennial AIDS conference is often exhausting and irritating, but it offers a unique view of how science and society interact. It still deserves the support of basic scientists.