IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045

AIMS

To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045.

METHODS

A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence.

RESULTS

The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75-79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045.

CONCLUSIONS

Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world's adult population now have this condition.

Global burden of diabetes, 1995-2025: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people with diabetes who are > or =20 years of age in all countries of the world for three points in time, i.e., the years 1995, 2000, and 2025, and to calculate additional parameters, such as sex ratio, urban-rural ratio, and the age structure of the diabetic population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to United Nations population estimates and projections for the number of adults aged > or =20 years in all countries of the world. For developing countries, urban and rural populations were considered separately

RESULTS

Prevalence of diabetes in adults worldwide was estimated to be 4.0% in 1995 and to rise to 5.4% by the year 2025. It is higher in developed than in developing countries. The number of adults with diabetes in the world will rise from 135 million in 1995 to 300 million in the year 2025. The major part of this numerical increase will occur in developing countries. There will be a 42% increase, from 51 to 72 million, in the developed countries and a 170% increase, from 84 to 228 million, in the developing countries. Thus, by the year 2025, >75% of people with diabetes will reside in developing countries, as compared with 62% in 1995. The countries with the largest number of people with diabetes are, and will be in the year 2025, India, China, and the U.S. In developing countries, the majority of people with diabetes are in the age range of 45-64 years. In the developed countries, the majority of people with diabetes are aged > or =65 years. This pattern will be accentuated by the year 2025. There are more women than men with diabetes, especially in developed countries. In the future, diabetes will be increasingly concentrated in urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

This report supports earlier predictions of the epidemic nature of diabetes in the world during the first quarter of the 21st century. It also provides a provisional picture of the characteristics of the epidemic. Worldwide surveillance of diabetes is a necessary first step toward its prevention and control, which is now recognized as an urgent priority.

Glycemic durability of rosiglitazone, metformin, or glyburide monotherapy

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of thiazolidinediones, as compared with other oral glucose-lowering medications, in maintaining long-term glycemic control in type 2 diabetes is not known.

METHODS

We evaluated rosiglitazone, metformin, and glyburide as initial treatment for recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in a double-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial involving 4360 patients. The patients were treated for a median of 4.0 years. The primary outcome was the time to monotherapy failure, which was defined as a confirmed level of fasting plasma glucose of more than 180 mg per deciliter (10.0 mmol per liter), for rosiglitazone, as compared with metformin or glyburide. Prespecified secondary outcomes were levels of fasting plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin, insulin sensitivity, and beta-cell function.

RESULTS

Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a cumulative incidence of monotherapy failure at 5 years of 15% with rosiglitazone, 21% with metformin, and 34% with glyburide. This represents a risk reduction of 32% for rosiglitazone, as compared with metformin, and 63%, as compared with glyburide (P<0.001 for both comparisons). The difference in the durability of the treatment effect was greater between rosiglitazone and glyburide than between rosiglitazone and metformin. Glyburide was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events (including congestive heart failure) than was rosiglitazone (P<0.05), and the risk associated with metformin was similar to that with rosiglitazone. Rosiglitazone was associated with more weight gain and edema than either metformin or glyburide but with fewer gastrointestinal events than metformin and with less hypoglycemia than glyburide (P<0.001 for all comparisons).

CONCLUSIONS

The potential risks and benefits, the profile of adverse events, and the costs of these three drugs should all be considered to help inform the choice of pharmacotherapy for patients with type 2 diabetes. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00279045 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an expanding global health problem, closely linked to the epidemic of obesity. Individuals with T2DM are at high risk for both microvascular complications (including retinopathy, nephropathy and neuropathy) and macrovascular complications (such as cardiovascular comorbidities), owing to hyperglycaemia and individual components of the insulin resistance (metabolic) syndrome. Environmental factors (for example, obesity, an unhealthy diet and physical inactivity) and genetic factors contribute to the multiple pathophysiological disturbances that are responsible for impaired glucose homeostasis in T2DM. Insulin resistance and impaired insulin secretion remain the core defects in T2DM, but at least six other pathophysiological abnormalities contribute to the dysregulation of glucose metabolism. The multiple pathogenetic disturbances present in T2DM dictate that multiple antidiabetic agents, used in combination, will be required to maintain normoglycaemia. The treatment must not only be effective and safe but also improve the quality of life. Several novel medications are in development, but the greatest need is for agents that enhance insulin sensitivity, halt the progressive pancreatic β-cell failure that is characteristic of T2DM and prevent or reverse the microvascular complications. For an illustrated summary of this Primer, visit: http://go.nature.com/V2eGfN.

Diabetes: a 21st century challenge

The number of people with diabetes worldwide has more than doubled during the past 20 years. One of the most worrying features of this rapid increase is the emergence of type 2 diabetes in children, adolescents, and young adults. Although the role of traditional risk factors for type 2 diabetes (eg, genetic, lifestyle, and behavioural risk factors) has been given attention, recent research has focused on identifying the contributions of epigenetic mechanisms and the effect of the intrauterine environment. Epidemiological data predict an inexorable and unsustainable increase in global health expenditure attributable to diabetes, so disease prevention should be given high priority. An integrated approach is needed to prevent type 2 diabetes, taking into account its many origins and heterogeneity. Thus, research needs to be directed at improved understanding of the potential role of determinants such as the maternal environment and other early life factors, as well as changing trends in global demography, to help shape disease prevention programmes.

Metabolic Surgery in the Treatment Algorithm for Type 2 Diabetes: A Joint Statement by International Diabetes Organizations

BACKGROUND

Despite growing evidence that bariatric/metabolic surgery powerfully improves type 2 diabetes (T2D), existing diabetes treatment algorithms do not include surgical options.

AIM

The 2nd Diabetes Surgery Summit (DSS-II), an international consensus conference, was convened in collaboration with leading diabetes organizations to develop global guidelines to inform clinicians and policymakers about benefits and limitations of metabolic surgery for T2D.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary group of 48 international clinicians/scholars (75% nonsurgeons), including representatives of leading diabetes organizations, participated in DSS-II. After evidence appraisal (MEDLINE [1 January 2005-30 September 2015]), three rounds of Delphi-like questionnaires were used to measure consensus for 32 data-based conclusions. These drafts were presented at the combined DSS-II and 3rd World Congress on Interventional Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes (London, U.K., 28-30 September 2015), where they were open to public comment by other professionals and amended face-to-face by the Expert Committee.

RESULTS

Given its role in metabolic regulation, the gastrointestinal tract constitutes a meaningful target to manage T2D. Numerous randomized clinical trials, albeit mostly short/midterm, demonstrate that metabolic surgery achieves excellent glycemic control and reduces cardiovascular risk factors. On the basis of such evidence, metabolic surgery should be recommended to treat T2D in patients with class III obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m(2)) and in those with class II obesity (BMI 35.0-39.9 kg/m(2)) when hyperglycemia is inadequately controlled by lifestyle and optimal medical therapy. Surgery should also be considered for patients with T2D and BMI 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2) if hyperglycemia is inadequately controlled despite optimal treatment with either oral or injectable medications. These BMI thresholds should be reduced by 2.5 kg/m(2) for Asian patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Although additional studies are needed to further demonstrate long-term benefits, there is sufficient clinical and mechanistic evidence to support inclusion of metabolic surgery among antidiabetes interventions for people with T2D and obesity. To date, the DSS-II guidelines have been formally endorsed by 45 worldwide medical and scientific societies. Health care regulators should introduce appropriate reimbursement policies.

The cost-effectiveness of lifestyle modification or metformin in preventing type 2 diabetes in adults with impaired glucose tolerance

BACKGROUND

The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) demonstrated that interventions can delay or prevent the development of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the lifetime cost-utility of the DPP interventions.

DESIGN

Markov simulation model to estimate progression of disease, costs, and quality of life.

DATA SOURCES

The DPP and published reports.

TARGET POPULATION

Members of the DPP cohort 25 years of age or older with impaired glucose tolerance.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVES

Health system and societal.

INTERVENTIONS

Intensive lifestyle, metformin, and placebo interventions as implemented in the DPP.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Cumulative incidence of diabetes, microvascular and neuropathic complications, cardiovascular complications, survival, direct medical and direct nonmedical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and cost per QALY.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Compared with the placebo intervention, the lifestyle and metformin interventions were estimated to delay the development of type 2 diabetes by 11 and 3 years, respectively, and to reduce the absolute incidence of diabetes by 20% and 8%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of microvascular, neuropathic, and cardiovascular complications were reduced and survival was improved by 0.5 and 0.2 years. Compared with the placebo intervention, the cost per QALY was approximately 1100 dollars for the lifestyle intervention and $31 300 for the metformin intervention. From a societal perspective, the interventions cost approximately 8800 dollars and 29,900 dollars per QALY, respectively. From both perspectives, the lifestyle intervention dominated the metformin intervention.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Cost-effectiveness improved when the interventions were implemented as they might be in routine clinical practice. The lifestyle intervention was cost-effective in all age groups. The metformin intervention did not represent good use of resources for persons older than 65 years of age.

LIMITATIONS

Simulation results depend on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions, including participant adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Health policy should promote diabetes prevention in high-risk individuals.

Differences in A1C by race and ethnicity among patients with impaired glucose tolerance in the Diabetes Prevention Program

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine racial and ethnic differences in A1C in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied 3,819 individuals aged > or = 25 years with IGT who were found to be eligible to participant in the Diabetes Prevention Program. A1C was compared among five racial and ethnic groups before and after adjustment for factors that differed among groups or might affect glycemia including age, sex, education, marital status, blood pressure, adiposity (BMI and waist circumference), hematocrit, fasting and post-glucose load glucose levels, glucose area under the curve (AUC), beta-cell function, and insulin resistance.

RESULTS

Mean +/- SD A1C was 5.91 +/- 0.50%. Among whites, A1C was 5.80 +/- 0.44%, among Hispanics 5.89 +/- 0.46%, among Asian 5.96 +/- 0.45%, among American Indians 5.96 +/- 0.46%, and among blacks 6.19 +/- 0.59%. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, BMI, fasting glucose, glucose AUC, corrected insulin response, and insulin resistance were each independent predictors of A1C. Adjusting for these and other factors, mean A1C levels were 5.78% for whites, 5.93% for Hispanics, 6.00% for Asians, 6.12% for American Indians, and 6.18% for blacks (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A1C levels are higher among U.S. racial and ethnic minority groups with IGT after adjustment for factors likely to affect glycemia. Among patients with IGT, A1C may not be valid for assessing and comparing glycemic control across racial and ethnic groups or as an indicator of health care disparities.

Rosiglitazone-associated fractures in type 2 diabetes: an Analysis from A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT)

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine possible factors associated with the increased risk of fractures observed with rosiglitazone in A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data from the 1,840 women and 2,511 men randomly assigned in ADOPT to rosiglitazone, metformin, or glyburide for a median of 4.0 years were examined with respect to time to first fracture, rates of occurrence, and sites of fractures.

RESULTS

In men, fracture rates did not differ between treatment groups. In women, at least one fracture was reported with rosiglitazone in 60 patients (9.3% of patients, 2.74 per 100 patient-years), metformin in 30 patients (5.1%, 1.54 per 100 patient-years), and glyburide in 21 patients (3.5%, 1.29 per 100 patient-years). The cumulative incidence (95% CI) of fractures in women at 5 years was 15.1% (11.2-19.1) with rosiglitazone, 7.3% (4.4-10.1) with metformin, and 7.7% (3.7-11.7) with glyburide, representing hazard ratios (95% CI) of 1.81 (1.17-2.80) and 2.13 (1.30-3.51) for rosiglitazone compared with metformin and glyburide, respectively. The increase in fractures with rosiglitazone occurred in pre- and postmenopausal women, and fractures were seen predominantly in the lower and upper limbs. No particular risk factor underlying the increased fractures in female patients who received rosiglitazone therapy was identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Further investigation into the risk factors and underlying pathophysiology for the increased fracture rate in women taking rosiglitazone is required to relate them to preclinical data and better understand the clinical implications of and possible interventions for these findings.

Serum creatinine levels in the US population: third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

This report describes the distribution of serum creatinine levels by sex, age, and ethnic group in a representative sample of the US population. Serum creatinine level was evaluated in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) in 18,723 participants aged 12 years and older who were examined between 1988 and 1994. Differences in mean serum creatinine levels were compared for subgroups defined by sex, age, and ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Mexican-American). The mean serum creatinine value was 0.96 mg/dL for women in the United States and 1.16 mg/dL for men. Overall mean creatinine levels were highest in non-Hispanic blacks (women, 1.01 mg/dL; men, 1.25 mg/dL), lower in non-Hispanic whites (women, 0.97 mg/dL; men, 1.16 mg/dL), and lowest in Mexican-Americans (women, 0.86 mg/dL; men, 1.07 mg/dL). Mean serum creatinine levels increased with age among both men and women in all three ethnic groups, with total US mean levels ranging from 0.88 to 1.10 mg/dL in women and 1.00 to 1.29 mg/dL in men. The highest mean creatinine level was seen in non-Hispanic black men aged 60+ years. In the total US population, creatinine levels of 1.5 mg/dL or greater were seen in 9.74% of men and 1.78% of women. Overall, among the US noninstitutionalized population, 10.9 million people are estimated to have creatinine values of 1.5 mg/dL or greater, 3.0 million have values of 1.7 mg/dL or greater, and 0.8 million have serum creatinine levels of 2.0 mg/dL or greater. Mean serum creatinine values are higher in men, non-Hispanic blacks, and older persons and are lower in Mexican-Americans. In the absence of information on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) or lean body mass, it is not clear to what extent the variability by sex, ethnicity, and age reflects normal physiological differences rather than the presence of kidney disease. Until this information is known, the use of a single cutpoint to define elevated serum creatinine values may be misleading.

Nurse case management to improve glycemic control in diabetic patients in a health maintenance organization. A randomized, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Control of hyperglycemia delays or prevents complications of diabetes, but many persons with diabetes do not achieve optimal control.

OBJECTIVE

To compare diabetes control in patients receiving nurse case management and patients receiving usual care.

DESIGN

Randomized, controlled trial.

SETTING

Primary care clinics in a group-model health maintenance organization (HMO).

PATIENTS

17 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus and 121 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

INTERVENTION

The nurse case manager followed written management algorithms under the direction of a family physician and an endocrinologist. Changes in therapy were communicated to primary care physicians. All patients received ongoing care through their primary care physicians.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) value, was measured at baseline and at 12 months. Fasting blood glucose levels, medication type and dose, body weight, blood pressure, lipid levels, patient-perceived health status, episodes of severe hypoglycemia, and emergency department and hospital admissions were also assessed.

RESULTS

72% of patients completed follow-up. Patients in the nurse case management group had mean decreases of 1.7 percentage points in HbA1c values and 43 mg/dL (2.38 mmol/L) in fasting glucose levels; patients in the usual care group had decreases of 0.6 percentage points in HbA1c values and 15 mg/dL (0.83 mmol/L) in fasting glucose levels (P < 0.01). Self-reported health status improved in the nurse case management group (P = 0.02). The nurse case management intervention was not associated with statistically significant changes in medication type or dose, body weight, blood pressure, or lipids or with adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

A nurse case manager with considerable management responsibility can, in association with primary care physicians and an endocrinologist, help improve glycemic control in diabetic patients in a group-model HMO.

Use of the Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument as a measure of distal symmetrical peripheral neuropathy in Type 1 diabetes: results from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications

AIMS

The Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument (MNSI) is used to assess distal symmetrical peripheral neuropathy in diabetes. It includes two separate assessments: a 15-item self-administered questionnaire and a lower extremity examination that includes inspection and assessment of vibratory sensation and ankle reflexes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the MNSI in detecting distal symmetrical peripheral neuropathy in patients with Type 1 diabetes and to develop new scoring algorithms.

METHODS

The MNSI was performed by trained personnel at each of the 28 Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications clinical sites. Neurologic examinations and nerve conduction studies were performed during the same year. Confirmed clinical neuropathy was defined by symptoms and signs of distal symmetrical peripheral neuropathy based on the examination of a neurologist and abnormal nerve conduction findings in ≥ 2 anatomically distinct nerves among the sural, peroneal and median nerves.

RESULTS

We studied 1184 subjects with Type 1 diabetes. Mean age was 47 years and duration of diabetes was 26 years. Thirty per cent of participants had confirmed clinical neuropathy, 18% had ≥ 4 and 5% had ≥ 7 abnormal responses on the MNSI questionnaire, and 33% had abnormal scores (≥ 2.5) on the MNSI examination. New scoring algorithms were developed and cut points defined to improve the performance of the MNSI questionnaire, examination and the combination of the two.

CONCLUSIONS

Altering the cut point to define an abnormal test from ≥ 7 abnormal to ≥ 4 abnormal items improves the performance of the MNSI questionnaire. The MNSI is a simple, non-invasive and valid measure of distal symmetrical peripheral neuropathy in Type 1 diabetes.

The effect of lifestyle intervention and metformin on preventing or delaying diabetes among women with and without gestational diabetes: the Diabetes Prevention Program outcomes study 10-year follow-up

CONTEXT

Gestational diabetes (GDM) confers a high risk of type 2 diabetes. In the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), intensive lifestyle (ILS) and metformin prevented or delayed diabetes in women with a history of GDM.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of ILS and metformin intervention over 10 years in women with and without a history of GDM in the DPP/Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study.

DESIGN

This was a randomized controlled clinical trial with an observational follow-up.

SETTING

The study was conducted at 27 clinical centers.

PARTICIPANTS

Three hundred fifty women with a history of GDM and 1416 women with previous live births but no history of GDM participated in the study. The participants had an elevated body mass index and fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance at study entry.

INTERVENTIONS

Interventions included placebo, ILS, or metformin.

OUTCOMES MEASURE

Outcomes measure was diabetes mellitus.

RESULTS

Over 10 years, women with a history of GDM assigned to placebo had a 48% higher risk of developing diabetes compared with women without a history of GDM. In women with a history of GDM, ILS and metformin reduced progression to diabetes compared with placebo by 35% and 40%, respectively. Among women without a history of GDM, ILS reduced the progression to diabetes by 30%, and metformin did not reduce the progression to diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with a history of GDM are at an increased risk of developing diabetes. In women with a history of GDM in the DPP/Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study, both lifestyle and metformin were highly effective in reducing progression to diabetes during a 10-year follow-up period. Among women without a history of GDM, lifestyle but not metformin reduced progression to diabetes.

Prevalence and determinants of insulin resistance among U.S. adolescents: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine the distribution of insulin and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and associations of HOMA-IR with sex, race/ethnicity, age, and weight status, as measured by BMI, among U.S. adolescents.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Of 4,902 adolescents aged 12-19 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2002, analysis was performed for a nationally representative subsample of 1,802 adolescents without diabetes who had fasting laboratory measurements. The main outcome measure was HOMA-IR, calculated from fasting insulin and glucose and log transformed for multiple linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

In adjusted regression models that included age and weight status, girls had higher HOMA-IR than boys and Mexican-American children had higher HOMA-IR levels than white children. There were no significant differences in adjusted HOMA-IR between black and white children. Obese children (BMI >/=95th percentile) had significantly higher levels of HOMA-IR compared with children of normal weight (BMI <85th percentile) in adjusted comparisons (mean HOMA-IR 4.93 [95% CI 4.56-5.35] vs. 2.30 [2.21-2.39], respectively). Weight status was by far the most important determinant of insulin resistance, accounting for 29.1% of the variance in HOMA-IR. The prevalence of insulin resistance in obese adolescents was 52.1% (95% CI 44.5-59.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity in U.S. adolescents represents the most important risk factor for insulin resistance, independent of sex, age, or race/ethnicity. The prevalence of insulin resistance in obese children foreshadows a worrisome trend for the burden of type 2 diabetes in the U.S.

Screening for type 2 diabetes

Definitive studies of the effectiveness of screening for type 2 diabetes are currently not available. RCTs would be the best means to assess effectiveness, but several barriers prevent these studies from being conducted. Prospective observational studies may characterize some of the benefits of screening by creating screened and unscreened groups for comparison. The availability of better data systems and health services research techniques will facilitate such comparisons. Unfortunately, the interpretation of the results of such studies is extremely problematic. Several screening tests have been evaluated. Risk assessment questionnaires have generally performed poorly as stand-alone tests. Screening with biochemical tests performs better. Venous and capillary glucose measurements may perform more favorably than urinary glucose or HbA(1c) measurements, and measuring postprandial glucose levels may have advantages over measuring fasting levels. However, performance of all screening tests is dependent on the cutoff point selected. Unfortunately, there are no well-defined and validated cutoff points to define positive tests. A two-stage screening test strategy may assist with a more efficient use of resources, although such approaches have not been rigorously tested. The optimal interval for screening is unknown. Even though periodic, targeted, and opportunistic screening within the existing health care system seems to offer the greatest yield and likelihood of appropriate follow-up and treatment, much of the reported experience with screening appears to be episodic poorly targeted community screening outside of the existing health care system. Statistical models have helped to answer some of the key questions concerning areas in which there is lack of empirical data. Current models need to be refined with new clinical and epidemiological information, such as the UKPDS results (200). In addition, future models need to include better information on the natural history of the preclinical phase of diabetes. Data from ongoing clinical trials of screening and treatment of impaired glucose tolerance, such as the Diabetes Prevention Program, may eventually offer more direct evidence for early detection and treatment of asymptomatic hyperglycemia (201). It will be important to use comprehensive cardiovascular disease modules that assess the conjoint influence of glucose and cardiovascular risk factor reduction, information on QOL, and refined economic evaluations using common outcome measures (cost per life-year or QALY gained) (11,178,202-204). Such studies should consider all of the costs associated with a comprehensive screening program, including, at a minimum, the direct costs of screening, diagnostic testing, and care for patients with diabetes detected through screening. Finally, combinations of screening tests and different screening intervals should be evaluated within economic studies to allow selection of the optimal approach within the financial and resource limitations of the health care system.

Microalbuminuria in the US population: third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Microalbuminuria (MA) is associated with adverse health outcomes in diabetic and hypertensive adults. The prevalence and clinical significance of MA in nondiabetic populations is less clear. The purpose of this study was to generate national estimates of the prevalence of MA in the US population. Untimed urinary albumin concentrations (UACs) and creatinine concentrations were evaluated in a nationally representative sample of 22,244 participants aged 6 years and older. Persons with hematuria and menstruating or pregnant women were excluded from analysis. The percent prevalence of clinical proteinuria (UAC > or = 300 mg/L) was similar for males and females. However, the prevalence of MA (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio [ACR], 30 to 299 mg/g) was significantly lower in males (6.1%) compared with females (9.7%). MA prevalence was greater in children than young adults and increased continuously starting at 40 years of age. MA prevalence was greater in non-Hispanic blacks and Mexican Americans aged 40 to 79 years compared with similar-aged non-Hispanic whites. MA prevalence was 28.8% in persons with previously diagnosed diabetes, 16.0% in those with hypertension, and 5.1% in those without diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, or elevated serum creatinine levels. In adults aged 40+ years, after excluding persons with clinical proteinuria, albuminuria (defined as ACR > or = 30 mg/g) was independently associated with older age, non-Hispanic black and Mexican American ethnicity, diabetes, hypertension, and elevated serum creatinine concentration. MA is common, even among persons without diabetes or hypertension. Age, sex, race/ethnicity, and concomitant disease contribute to the variability of MA prevalence estimates.

A new look at screening and diagnosing diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes is underdiagnosed. About one third of people with diabetes do not know they have it, and the average lag between onset and diagnosis is 7 yr. This report reconsiders the criteria for diagnosing diabetes and recommends screening criteria to make case finding easier for clinicians and patients.

PARTICIPANTS

R.M.B. invited experts in the area of diagnosis, monitoring, and management of diabetes to form a panel to review the literature and develop consensus regarding the screening and diagnosis of diabetes with particular reference to the use of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Participants met in open session and by E-mail thereafter. Metrika, Inc. sponsored the meeting.

EVIDENCE

A literature search was performed using standard search engines.

CONSENSUS PROCESS

The panel heard each member's discussion of the issues, reviewing evidence prior to drafting conclusions. Principal conclusions were agreed on, and then specific cut points were discussed in an iterative consensus process.

CONCLUSIONS

The main factors in support of using HbA1c as a screening and diagnostic test include: 1) HbA1c does not require patients to be fasting; 2) HbA1c reflects longer-term glycemia than does plasma glucose; 3) HbA1c laboratory methods are now well standardized and reliable; and 4) errors caused by nonglycemic factors affecting HbA1c such as hemoglobinopathies are infrequent and can be minimized by confirming the diagnosis of diabetes with a plasma glucose (PG)-specific test. Specific recommendations include: 1) screening standards should be established that prompt further testing and closer follow-up, including fasting PG of 100 mg/dl or greater, random PG of 130 mg/dl or greater, or HbA1c greater than 6.0%; 2) HbA1c of 6.5-6.9% or greater, confirmed by a PG-specific test (fasting plasma glucose or oral glucose tolerance test), should establish the diagnosis of diabetes; and 3) HbA1c of 7% or greater, confirmed by another HbA1c- or a PG-specific test (fasting plasma glucose or oral glucose tolerance test) should establish the diagnosis of diabetes. The recommendations are offered for consideration of the clinical community and interested associations and societies.

Valuing health-related quality of life in diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Cost-utility analyses use information on health utilities to compare medical treatments that have different clinical outcomes and impacts on survival. The purpose of this study was to describe the health utilities associated with diabetes and its treatments, complications, and comorbidities.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied 2,048 subjects with type 1 and type 2 diabetes recruited from specialty clinics at a university medical center. We administered a questionnaire to each individual to assess demographic characteristics, type and duration of diabetes, treatments, complications, and comorbidities, and we used the Self-Administered Quality of Well Being index (QWB-SA) to calculate a health utility score. We then created regression models to fit the QWB-SA-derived health utility scores to indicator variables for type 1 and type 2 diabetes and each demographic variable, treatment, and complication. The coefficients were arranged in clinically meaningful ways to develop models to describe penalties from the health utility scores for nonobese diabetic men without additional treatments, complications, or comorbidities.

RESULTS

The utility scores for nonobese diet-controlled men and women with type 2 diabetes and no microvascular, neuropathic, or cardiovascular complications were 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. The utility scores for men and women with type 1 diabetes and no complications were slightly lower (0.67 and 0.64, respectively). Blindness, dialysis, symptomatic neuropathy, foot ulcers, amputation, debilitating stroke, and congestive heart failure were associated with lower utility scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Major diabetes complications are associated with worse health-related quality of life. The health utility scores provided should facilitate studies of the health burden of diabetes and the cost-utility of alternative strategies for the prevention and treatment of diabetes.

Effect of prior intensive insulin treatment during the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) on peripheral neuropathy in type 1 diabetes during the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of former intensive versus conventional insulin treatment on neuropathy in Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) intensive and conventional treatment subjects with type 1 diabetes 13-14 years after DCCT closeout, during which time the two groups had achieved similar A1C levels.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Clinical and nerve conduction studies (NCSs) performed during the DCCT were repeated during the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) study by examiners masked to treatment status on 603 former intensive and 583 former conventional treatment subjects. Clinical neuropathy was defined by symptoms, sensory signs, or reflex changes consistent with distal polyneuropathy and confirmed with NCS abnormalities involving two or more nerves among the median, peroneal, and sural nerves.

RESULTS

The prevalence of neuropathy increased 13-14 years after DCCT closeout from 9 to 25% in former intensive and from 17 to 35% in former conventional treatment groups, but the difference between groups remained significant (P < 0.001), and the incidence of neuropathy remained lower among former intensive (22%) than former conventional (28%) treatment subjects (P = 0.0125). Analytic models of incident neuropathy that adjusted for differences in NCS results at DCCT closeout showed no significant risk reduction associated with former intensive treatment during follow-up (odds ratio 1.17 [95% CI 0.84-1.63]). However, a significant persistent treatment group effect was observed for several NCS measures. Longitudinal analyses of overall glycemic control showed a significant association between mean A1C and measures of incident and prevalent neuropathy.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefits of former intensive insulin treatment persisted for 13-14 years after DCCT closeout and provide evidence of a durable effect of prior intensive treatment on neuropathy.