Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3-6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Relation between fractures and mortality: results from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study

BACKGROUND

Fractures have largely been assessed by their impact on quality of life or health care costs. We conducted this study to evaluate the relation between fractures and mortality.

METHODS

A total of 7753 randomly selected people (2187 men and 5566 women) aged 50 years and older from across Canada participated in a 5-year observational cohort study. Incident fractures were identified on the basis of validated self-report and were classified by type (vertebral, pelvic, forearm or wrist, rib, hip and "other"). We subdivided fracture groups by the year in which the fracture occurred during follow-up; those occurring in the fourth and fifth years were grouped together. We examined the relation between the time of the incident fracture and death.

RESULTS

Compared with participants who had no fracture during follow-up, those who had a vertebral fracture in the second year were at increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-6.6); also at risk were those who had a hip fracture during the first year (adjusted HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.4-7.4). Among women, the risk of death was increased for those with a vertebral fracture during the first year (adjusted HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.1-12.8) or the second year of follow-up (adjusted HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.2-8.1). The risk of death was also increased among women with hip fracture during the first year of follow-up (adjusted HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.0-8.7).

INTERPRETATION

Vertebral and hip fractures are associated with an increased risk of death. Interventions that reduce the incidence of these fractures need to be implemented to improve survival.

Quality of sleep and health-related quality of life in haemodialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Sleep complaints are common in haemodialysis patients. In the general population, insomnia impacts negatively on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The objective of this study was to examine the association between quality of sleep and HRQoL in haemodialysis patients independent of known predictors of HRQoL.

METHODS

Quality of sleep was measured using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and HRQoL was measured using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form (SF-36) in 89 haemodialysis patients.

RESULTS

Sixty-three (71%) subjects were 'poor sleepers' (global PSQI >5). The SF-36 mental component summary (MCS) and physical component summary (PCS) correlated inversely with the global PSQI score (MCS, r = -0.28, P < 0.01; PCS, r = -0.45, P < 0.01). The PCS score also correlated with age (r = -0.24, P = 0.02), haemoglobin (r = 0.21, P = 0.048) and comorbidity (r = -0.40, P < 0.01), and mean PCS was lower in depressed subjects (26.2 vs 35.9, P = 0.02). Subjects with global PSQI >5 had a higher prevalence of depression, lower haemoglobin and lower HRQoL in all SF-36 domains. The global PSQI score was a significant independent predictor of the MCS and PCS after controlling for age, sex, haemoglobin, serum albumin, comorbidity and depression in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor sleep is common in dialysis patients and is associated with lower HRQoL. We hypothesize that end-stage renal disease directly influences quality of sleep, which in turn impacts on HRQoL.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

Generation and validation of the Condensed MCMDM-1VWD Bleeding Questionnaire for von Willebrand disease

BACKGROUND

Given the challenges involved in obtaining accurate bleeding histories, attempts at standardization have occurred and the value of quantifying hemorrhagic symptoms has been recognized.

PATIENTS/METHODS

An extensive validated bleeding questionnaire (MCMDM-1VWD) was condensed by eliminating all details that did not directly affect the bleeding score (BS) and the correlation between the two versions was tested. Additionally, the diagnostic utility of the condensed version was prospectively tested.

RESULTS

Data on 259 individuals who were administered the questionnaire are presented here; 217 being prospectively investigated for von Willebrand disease (VWD) (group 1) and 42 previously known to have type 1, 2 or 3 VWD (group 2). Of the 217 prospectively investigated, 35 had positive BS (> or =4) and 182 had negative scores. Seven individuals (all with positive BS) had laboratory results consistent with type 1 VWD. This results in a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 87%. The positive predictive value is 0.20 and the negative predictive value is 1. The correlation between the full MCMDM-1VWD and condensed versions is excellent (Spearman's 0.97, P < 0.001, linear regression r(2) = 96.4). Inter-observer reliability for the condensed version is reasonable (Spearman's 0.72, P < 0.001 and intra-class correlation coefficient 0.805, P < 0.001). There was a significant difference in BS between subtypes of VWD, with type 3 >> type 2 >> type 1 VWD (anova P < 0.001). There is a strong inverse relationship between VWF:Ag level and BS (Spearman's -0.411, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The Condensed MCMDM-1VWD Bleeding Questionnaire is an efficient, effective tool in the evaluation of patients for VWD.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Quality of life during and after inpatient stroke rehabilitation

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Very limited longitudinal data are available that assess the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of stroke survivors after discharge from inpatient rehabilitation. The purpose of this research was to assess changes in HRQOL during inpatient rehabilitation and again 6 months after discharge.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of all eligible patients admitted to an inpatient stroke rehabilitation hospital over a 3-year period. HRQOL was assessed by means of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form (SF-36). Dependent t tests were used to compare the scores at admission and discharge and at discharge and 6 months. Changes in HRQOL were calculated for the period of admission to discharge and of discharge to the 6-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Complete data were available for 85 patients. During rehabilitation, there were improvements in all 8 domains of the SF-36, with 5 attaining statistical significance. After discharge, 3 domains continued to improve, with 1 attaining statistical significance. However, there were marked and statistically significant declines in the other 5 domains of the SF-36. Feedback was obtained from a subset of the patients as to the reasons for these declines.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial gains in HRQOL during inpatient stroke rehabilitation may be followed by equally substantial declines in the 6 months after discharge. There is a need for longitudinal research into the HRQOL of stroke survivors and their families, as well as a need to ensure that adequate community services and support are available.

Evolution of the Randomized Clinical Trial in the Era of Precision Oncology

IMPORTANCE

The randomized clinical trial (RCT) in oncology has evolved since its widespread adoption in the 1970s. In recent years, concerns have emerged regarding the use of putative surrogate end points, such as progression-free survival (PFS), and marginal effect sizes.

OBJECTIVE

To describe contemporary trends in oncology RCTs and compare these findings with earlier eras of RCT design and output.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study of systemic therapy RCTs in breast, colorectal, and non-small cell lung cancer published in 7 major journals between 2010 and 2020. This strategy replicates prior work and allows for comparison of trends with RCTs published between 1995 to 2004 and 2005 to 2009.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Data on RCT design, funding, results, and reporting were extracted from the published RCT report. Findings from the current period (2010-2020) were compared with data from RCTs published from 1995 to 2004 and 2005 to 2009. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were used to analyze temporal trends.

RESULTS

The cohort included 298 RCTs (132 [44%] breast, 111 [37%] non-small cell lung cancer, 55 [19%] colorectal cancer). Experimental treatment included molecular inhibitor (171 of 298 [57%]), cytotoxic (83 of 298 [28%]), hormone (15 of 298 [5%]), and immune (24 of 298 [8%]) therapies. Sixty-nine percent (206 of 298) of RCTs were of palliative intent. The most common primary end point is now PFS; this has increased substantially over time (from 0% [0 of 167] to 18% [25 of 137] to 42% [125 of 298]; P < .001). Of 298 RCTs, 265 (89%) are now funded by industry (previously 95 of 167 [57%] and 107 of 137 [78%]; P < .001). Fifty-eight percent (173 of 298) of trials met their primary end point. Among positive trials, median improvement in overall survival and PFS was 3.4 and 2.9 months, respectively. More than one-third (117 of 298 [39%]) of reports used a professional medical writer; this increased substantially during the study period (from 3 of 27 [11%] in 2010 to 12 of 18 [67%] in 2020; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study suggests that contemporary oncology RCTs now largely measure putative surrogate end points and are almost exclusively funded by the pharmaceutical industry. The increasing role of medical writers warrants attention. To demonstrate that new cancer treatments are high value, the oncology community needs to consider the extent to which study end points and target effect size provide meaningful benefit to patients.

The impact of incident fractures on health-related quality of life: 5 years of data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study

Using prospective data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos), we compared health utilities index (HUI) scores after 5 years of follow-up among participants (50 years and older) with and without incident clinical fractures. Incident fractures had a negative impact on HUI scores over time.

INTRODUCTION

This study examined change in health-related quality of life (HRQL) in those with and without incident clinical fractures as measured by the HUI.

METHODS

The study cohort was 4,820 women and 1,783 men (50 years and older) from the CaMos. The HUI was administered at baseline and year 5. Participants were sub-divided into incident fracture groups (hip, rib, spine, forearm, pelvis, other) and were compared with those without these fractures. The effects of both time and fracture type on HUI scores were examined in multivariable regression analyses.

RESULTS

Men and women with hip fractures, compared to those without, had lower HUI measures that ranged from -0.05 to -0.25. Both women and men with spine fractures had significant deficits on the pain attributes (-0.07 to -0.12). In women, self-care (-0.06), mobility and ambulation (-0.05) were also negatively impacted. Women with rib fractures had deficits similar to women with spine fractures, and these effects persisted over time. In men, rib fractures did not significantly affect HUI scores. Pelvic and forearm fractures did not substantially influence HUI scores.

CONCLUSION

The HUI was a sensitive measure of HRQL change over time. These results will inform economic analyses evaluating osteoporosis therapies.

An Analysis of Contemporary Oncology Randomized Clinical Trials From Low/Middle-Income vs High-Income Countries

Importance

The burden of cancer falls disproportionally on low-middle-income countries (LMICs). It is not well known how novel therapies are tested in current clinical trials and the extent to which they match global disease burden.

Objectives

To describe the design, results, and publication of oncology randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and examine the extent to which trials match global disease burden and how trial methods and results differ across economic settings.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this retrospective cohort study, a literature search identified all phase 3 RCTs evaluating anticancer therapies published from 2014 to 2017. Randomized clinical trials were classified based on World Bank economic classification. Descriptive statistics were used to compare RCT design and results from high-income countries (HICs) and low/middle-income countries (LMICs). Statistical analysis was conducted in January 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Differences in the design, results, and output of RCTs between HICs and LMICs.

Results

The study cohort included 694 RCTs: 636 (92%) led by HICs and 58 (8%) led by LMICs. A total of 601 RCTs (87%) tested systemic therapy and 88 RCTs (13%) tested radiotherapy or surgery. The proportion of RCTs relative to global deaths was higher for breast cancer (121 RCTs [17%] and 7% of deaths) but lower for gastroesophageal cancer (38 RCTs [6%] and 14% of deaths), liver cancer (14 RCTs [2%] and 8% of deaths), pancreas cancer (14 RCTs [2%] and 5% of deaths), and cervical cancer (9 RCTs [1%] and 3% of deaths). Randomized clinical trials in HICs were more likely than those in LMICs to be funded by industry (464 [73%] vs 24 [41%]; P < .001). Studies in LMICs were smaller than those in HICs (median, 219 [interquartile range, 137-363] vs 474 [interquartile range, 262-743] participants; P < .001) and more likely to meet their primary end points (39 of 58 [67%] vs 286 of 636 [45%]; P = .001). The observed median effect size among superiority trials was larger in LMICs compared with HICs (hazard ratio, 0.62 [interquartile range, 0.54-0.76] vs 0.84 [interquartile range, 0.67-0.97]; P < .001). Studies from LMICs were published in journals with lower median impact factors than studies from HICs (7 [interquartile range, 4-21] vs 21 [interquartile range, 7-34]; P < .001). Publication bias persisted when adjusted for whether a trial was positive or negative (median impact factor: LMIC negative trial, 5 [interquartile range, 4-6] vs HIC negative trial, 18 [interquartile range, 6-26]; LMIC positive trial, 9 [interquartile range, 5-25] vs HIC positive trial, 25 [interquartile range, 10-48]; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study suggests that oncology RCTs are conducted predominantly by HICs and do not match the global burden of cancer. Randomized clinical trials from LMICs are more likely to identify effective therapies and have a larger effect size than RCTs from HICs. This study suggests that there is a funding and publication bias against RCTs led by LMICs. Policy makers, research funders, and journals need to address this issue with a range of measures including building capacity and capability in RCTs.

Physical functioning and mental health in patients with chronic medical conditions

There is evidence to suggest that a decline in physical functioning with advancing age is independent of mental health, which appears to remain relatively stable. There is additional evidence to suggest that those with a chronic disease also experience a decline in physical function while the mental health remains relatively stable. Using a cross-sectional design, data from the US population norms for the Medical Outcomes Study SF-36 are examined and compared to SF-36 data collected for four patient groups. Patient groups include kidney dialysis patients, multiple sclerosis patients, kidney transplant patients and patients with severe osteoarthritis of the hip prior to total hip replacement. Overall scores and scores within 10-year age groupings are examined in order to compare the physical functioning and mental health scores of the general population with those of the four patient groups. Results support the hypothesis that physical functioning declines with advancing age and with the development of chronic disease, but mental health remains remarkably stable regardless of chronic disease and/or advancing age. This observation suggests a process of psychological adjustment or adaptation to the physical difficulties encountered with advanced age or disability, and implies that this adjustment process may in fact be quite strong.

The Ontario Asthma Regional Variation Study: emergency department visit rates and the relation to hospitalization rates

BACKGROUND

Hospitalization rates for asthma vary more than threefold across regions of Ontario. It is not known whether this variation is primarily due to regional differences in the rate of emergency department (ED) visits or hospital admissions.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the variation in ED visit rates for asthma in Ontario, and the relation between ED visit rates and hospitalization rates.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

We studied patients with an ED disposition diagnosis of asthma in a stratified sample of 16 hospitals (pediatric facilities, 13; adult facilities, 14) over a 1-year period. Pediatric patients were defined as those patients who were </= 19 years of age.

MEASUREMENTS

Direct age-standardized and sex-standardized ED visit and hospitalization rates, and the percentages of patients presenting to EDs and subsequently admitted to the hospital were calculated for each site. High/low ratios (ie, extremal quotients [EQ]), weighted coefficients of variation (CVs), and the systematic component of variation (SCV) were used to summarize the variation among hospitals.

RESULTS

The total number of ED visits for asthma at participating sites was 12,518 (7,825 children and 4,693 adults). A total of 847 children (10.8%) and 322 adults (6.9%) were admitted to the hospital. Age-standardized and sex-standardized ED visit rates ranged from 8.7 to 25.2 per 1,000 population for children (EQ, 2.9; CV, 30.9%; SCV, 173; p < 0.001) and 1.7 to 10.1 per 1,000 population for adults (EQ, 5.9; CV, 52.9; SCV, 445; p < 0.001). The proportion of pediatric and adult ED visits resulting in admission to the hospital varied significantly by site (p < 0.001) and was inversely related to ED visit rates in children (p < 0.001) but not in adults. ED visit rates were related to hospitalization rates in children (p = 0.042) and adults (p < 0.0001), but only accounted for 4% and 27%, respectively, of the variation in hospitalization rates.

CONCLUSION

Hospitalization rates for asthma in Ontario are primarily influenced by the variation in the percentage of ED visitors admitted to the hospital rather than the ED visit rate.

Effect of activity restriction owing to heart disease on obesity

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether exercise intolerance and recommended activity restrictions are associated with development of overweight and obesity in children with congenital heart disease.

DESIGN

Retrospective review.

SETTING

Pediatric cardiology practice at a teaching hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 110 pediatric congenital heart disease patients followed up for a mean of 8.4 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Body mass index (BMI), sex-appropriate BMI percentiles, overweight (BMI percentile > or =85), and obesity (BMI percentile > or =95) at follow-up.

RESULTS

As a group, the increase in BMI percentiles was close to 10 points, but the increase was 21.6 points for exercise intolerant children and 27.3 points for activity restricted children. Activity restriction was significantly associated with both overweight (risk ratio [RR], 2.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-3.54) and obesity at follow-up (RR, 4.08; 95% CI, 1.42-7.38) after adjusting for weight at baseline. For the subset of 92 children at a healthy weight at baseline, activity restriction was again significantly associated with overweight (RR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.24-3.52) and obesity (RR, 6.14; 95% CI, 2.54-8.82) at follow-up. Exercise intolerance did not attain statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Exercise intolerant and activity restricted children experienced larger increases in absolute BMI and BMI percentile than children with neither exercise intolerance nor activity restriction. Activity restriction was the strongest predictor of risk of overweight and obesity at follow-up. Elevated weight and obesity may cause these children significant additional health burdens. Therefore, when patients must be counseled against physical exertion, they also need to be educated about the importance of appropriate physical activity and good dietary practices.

Physical activity, screen time and self-rated health and mental health in Canadian adolescents

OBJECTIVE

Physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) are associated with self-rated health (SRH) in adults; however, SRH has been less studied among youth, and information about self-rated mental health (SRMH) is lacking. This study examined the associations of PA and ST with SRH and SRMH among adolescents.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data from the 2011-2012 Canadian Community Health Survey included 7725 participants aged 12-17years, representing 1,820,560 Canadian adolescents. Associations of self-reported PA and ST to SRH and SRMH were assessed, controlling for age, race/ethnicity, smoking, highest household education and weight status.

RESULTS

Excellent/very good SRH was reported by 78% of active vs. 62% of inactive adolescents, and 77% of those meeting vs. 70% of those exceeding ST guidelines (both p<0.001). Excellent/very good SRMH was reported by 81% of active vs. 76% of inactive adolescents, and 84% of those meeting vs. 78% of those exceeding ST guidelines (both p<0.001). Inactive adolescents had twice higher odds of sub-optimal SRH, and inactive girls had 30% greater odds of sub-optimal SRMH. Adolescents exceeding 2h/day ST had 30% greater odds of sub-optimal SRH, and 30-50% greater odds of sub-optimal SRMH.

CONCLUSION

PA and ST are independently associated with health perceptions among Canadian adolescents. Interventions should consider health perceptions in addition to biomedical outcomes.

New-onset atrial fibrillation after cavotricuspid isthmus ablation: identification of advanced interatrial block is key

AIMS

A significant proportion of patients develop atrial fibrillation (AF) following cavotricuspid isthmus (CTI) ablation for typical atrial flutter (AFl). The objective of this study was to assess whether the presence of advanced interatrial block (aIAB) was associated with an elevated risk of AF after CTI ablation in patients with typical AFl and no prior history of AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included patients with typical AFl and no prior history of AF that were referred for CTI ablation. Patients were excluded when they had received repeat ablations or did not demonstrate a bidirectional block. In all patients, a post-ablation electrocardiogram (ECG) in sinus rhythm was evaluated for the presence of aIAB, defined as a P-wave duration ≥120 ms and biphasic morphology in the inferior leads. New-onset AF was identified from 12-lead ECGs, Holter monitoring, and device interrogations. The cohort comprised 187 patients (age 67 ± 10.7 years; ejection fraction 55.8 ± 11.2%). Advanced interatrial block was detected in 18.2% of patients, and left atrium was larger in patients with aIAB compared with those without aIAB (46.2 ± 5.9 vs. 43.1 ± 6.0 mm; P = 0.01). Over a median follow-up of 24.2 months, 67 patients (35.8%) developed new-onset AF. The incidence of new-onset AF was greater in patients with aIAB compared with those without aIAB (64.7 vs. 29.4%; P < 0.001). After a comprehensive multivariate analysis, aIAB emerged as the strongest predictor of new-onset AF [odds ratio (OR) 4.2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-9.3; P < 0.001].

CONCLUSION

Advanced interatrial block is a key predictor for high risk of new-onset AF after a successful CTI ablation in patients with typical AFl.

Stroke Impairment Predictors of Discharge Function, Length of Stay, and Discharge Destination in Stroke Rehabilitation

OBJECTIVES

This article presents analytic results from a prospective study of 313 stroke rehabilitation patients, looking at the relative contributions of different stroke impairments toward prediction of discharge function, rehabilitation length of stay, and discharge destination after inpatient rehabilitation. The relationship between number of stroke risk factors and recurrence of strokes during rehabilitation was also evaluated.

METHODS

A total of 313 subjects were enrolled consecutively. Information on type of stroke and individual stroke-related impairment was collected prospectively. Recurrent stroke, rehabilitation length of stay, discharge destination, discharge function, and available family support at discharge were documented.

RESULTS

Rates of impairment occurrence and coexistence are presented. Analysis using linear (length of stay, discharge function) and logistic (discharge destination) regression revealed significant contributory predictive effects of admission balance, aphasia, number of impairments, and family support on length of stay; admission balance and number of impairments on discharge function; and admission balance, body neglect, and presence of family support on discharge destination.

CONCLUSION

In addition to admission function and balance, other factors to consider in predicting length of stay for patients should include the number of stroke-related impairments and family support. For discharge destination prediction, the presence of body neglect should be considered in addition to balance and family support. Evaluation of patients for right-sided neglect and left-sided neglect is important.

Measurement of health-related quality of life in multiple sclerosis patients

BACKGROUND

Patient outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS) have generally been measured by their neurological impairment using specific scales such as the Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). However, this scale does not measure the multiple dimensions of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) such as functional status and general well-being, which are also important outcomes along with disease-specific measurements.

METHODS

HRQOL was measured in a group of 97 MS patients using the RAND 36-item Health Survey 1.0. The EDSS score was assigned by the clinic neurologist. Additional data were collected from the clinical record for each patient.

RESULTS

MS patients scored poorly in a number of HRQOL domains such as physical and role functioning and energy or vitality. Disability as quantified by the EDSS correlated only with the physical functioning domain. Regression models were developed to measure the relationship between patient characteristics (independent variables) and HRQOL domains (dependent variables).

DISCUSSION

A number of patient characteristics were associated with higher or lower scores on the HRQOL domains. Of particular interest is the finding that a family history of MS was associated with poorer physical and social functioning as well as more pain and less vitality. The occurrence of seizures had a negative impact on role functioning, social functioning and general health perceptions. HRQOL gives caregivers a broader measure of disease burden than the EDSS alone, and should be useful in planning and monitoring interventions.

Evaluation of the utility of the ISTH-BAT in haemophilia carriers: a multinational study

INTRODUCTION

There has been increasing recognition in recent years that female carriers of haemophilia manifest abnormal bleeding; however, data on the use of bleeding assessment tools in this population are lacking.

AIM

Our objective was to validate the ISTH-BAT in haemophilia carriers to describe bleeding symptoms and allow for comparisons with factor levels and other patient groups.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational, cross-sectional study performed by members of Global Emerging HEmostasis Panel (GEHEP). Unselected consecutive haemophilia carriers were recruited and a CRF and the ISTH-BAT were completed by study personnel.

RESULTS

A total of 168 haemophilia carriers were enrolled: 155 haemophilia A and 13 haemophilia B. The mean age was 40 years (range: 20-82). Carriers had higher mean bleeding scores (BS) compared with age-matched controls (n = 46; 5.7 vs. 1.43; P < 0.0001) and Type 3 VWD OC (n = 32; 3.0; P = 0.009), but lower BS compared with women with Type 1 VWD (n = 83; 8.7; P < 0.0001). Fifteen carriers reported haemarthrosis, and of those six had normal FVIII/FIX levels. There was a significant but weak negative correlation between BS and factor level (Spearman's r²  = -0.36, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our results show that haemophilia carriers experience abnormal bleeding, including haemarthrosis. Overall, BS in women with Type 1 VWD > haemophilia carriers > Type 3 VWD OC > controls. Understanding the performance of the ISTH-BAT in this population is a critical step in future research aimed at investigating the underlying pathophysiology of abnormal bleeding, with the ultimate goal of optimizing treatment.

Generation and optimization of the self-administered bleeding assessment tool and its validation as a screening test for von Willebrand disease

INTRODUCTION/AIM

Our aim was to generate, optimize and validate a self-administered bleeding assessment tool (self-BAT) for von Willebrand disease (VWD).

METHODS

In Phase 1, medical terminology in the expert-administered International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH)-BAT was converted into a Grade 4 reading level to produce the first version of the Self-BAT which was then optimized to ensure agreement with the ISTH-BAT. In Phase 2, the normal range of bleeding scores (BSs) was determined and test-retest reliability analysed. In Phase 3, the optimized Self-BAT was tested as a screening tool for first time referrals to the Haematology clinic.

RESULTS

Bleeding score from the final optimized version of the Self-BAT showed an excellent intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.87 with ISTH-BAT BS in Phase 1. In Phase 2, the normal range of BSs for the optimized Self-BAT was determined to be 0 to +5 for females and 0 to +3 for males and excellent test-retest reliability was shown (ICC = 0.95). In Phase 3, we showed that a positive Self-BAT BS (≥6 for females, ≥4 for males) has a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 23%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.15 and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.86 for VWD; these figures improved when just the females were analysed; sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 21%, PPV = 0.17 and NPV = 1.0.

CONCLUSION

We show an optimized Self-BAT can generate comparable BS to the expert-administered ISTH-BAT and is a reliable, effective screening tool to incorporate into the assessment of individuals, particularly women, referred for a possible bleeding disorder.

The association between body mass index and health-related quality of life: data from CaMos, a stratified population study

BACKGROUND

Deviation from normal weight is associated with health risks, but less is known about the association between weight and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). We investigated this in the context of a population-based study, using a standard five-category weight classification system based on body mass index (BMI).

METHODS

The Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study is a randomly selected sample of men and women over 25 years of age from nine centres across Canada. Data were obtained by interview, and height and weight were measured and used to calculate BMI. HRQOL was measured using the SF-36. Multivariable linear regression was used to identify the association between BMI category and SF-36 scores after controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Complete data were available for 6,302 women and 2,792 men. Mean BMI for every age and gender group exceeded healthy weight guidelines. For women, being underweight, overweight or obese was associated with poorer HRQOL in most SF-36 outcomes while for men, this was associated with poorer HRQOL in some domains and with higher HRQOL in others.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant proportion of the population may be putting their health at risk due to excess weight, which may have a substantial negative effect on HRQOL, particularly in women. This underscores the need for continued public health efforts aimed at combating overweight and obesity.

The natural progression of health-related quality of life: results of a five-year prospective study of SF-36 scores in a normative population

BACKGROUND

Limited information exists regarding the natural progression of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in the general population, as most research has been cross-sectional or has followed populations with specific medical conditions. Such norms are important to establish, because the effect of any intervention may be confounded by changes due to the natural progression of HRQOL over time.

METHODS

Participants were randomly selected from 9 Canadian cities and surrounding rural areas. Changes in the eight domains and 2 summary component scores of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item short form (SF-36) were examined over a 5 year period (1996/1997-2001/2002). Mean changes were calculated for men and women within 10 year age categories. Multiple imputation was used to adjust for potential selection bias due to missing data.

RESULTS

The baseline sample included 6539 women and 2884 men. Loss to follow-up was 17% for women and 23% for men. Mean changes tended to be small, but there was an overall trend towards decreasing HRQOL over time. Changes were more pronounced in the older age groups and in the physically oriented domains. Younger age groups tended towards small mean improvements, particularly in the mentally oriented domains. Large standard errors suggest that on an individual level, large improvements in some participants are balanced by large declines in others.

CONCLUSION

In general, the HRQOL of Canadians appears relatively stable over a 5 year period. However, care should be taken when assessing HRQOL longitudinally in certain age or gender groups, as changes associated with an intervention can potentially be confounded by the natural progression of HRQOL.

Effect of preoperative obstructive sleep apnea on the frequency of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting

Patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) have intermittent hypoxia leading to atrial remodeling and this has been associated with the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). Postoperative AF is a common complication of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The aim of this prospective study was to determine whether the presence of OSA predicts the occurrence of post-CABG AF (PCAF). This was a prospective single-center study. Patients undergoing elective CABG were evaluated and categorized as confirmed, high-risk, or low-risk OSA according to a modified Berlin questionnaire. PCAF was evaluated by 24-hour cardiac monitoring strip or 12-lead electrocardiography during the postoperative period, and validated by an electrophysiologist. We included 277 patients. OSA prevalence was 47.7%, with body mass index (31.0 vs 26.9 kg/m(2), p ≤0.001), advanced age (63.7 vs 66.4 years, p = 0.031), hypertension (78.0% vs 64.8%, p = 0.015), and diabetes (45.5% vs 28.3%, p = 0.003) more prevalent in the OSA group. PCAF was found to occur in 37.2% of all patients and OSA was found to be a strong predictor of PCAF (45.5% vs 29.7%, p = 0.007). PCAF was also associated with continuous positive airway pressure use (12.6% vs 5.2%, p = 0.027). Increased length of stay was associated with PCAF (6.5 vs 5.3 days, p = 0.006), as was longer time from surgery to occurrence of PCAF (p = 0.001). In conclusion, OSA was found to be a strong predictor of PCAF, which in turn was found to be associated with increased length of stay.