Evaluation of the relevance of the growth modulation index (GMI) from the FFCD 0307 randomized phase III trial comparing the sequence of two chemotherapeutic regimens

BACKGROUND

Precision medicine trials disrupted the paradigm of randomized controlled trials in large populations. Patient selection may be based on molecular alterations rather than on primary tumor location. In small patient populations, the growth modulation index (GMI) has been developed to evaluate treatment efficacy by using each patient as its own control. The FFCD 0307 randomized phase III trial compared two sequences of chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer, which represents a unique opportunity to evaluate the relevance of the GMI.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the FFCD 0307 trial, patients with advanced gastric cancer were randomized between two chemotherapy sequences [ECX followed by FOLFIRI at disease progression (arm A) versus FOLFIRI followed by ECX (arm B)]. GMI was defined as the ratio of the progression-free survival on second treatment (PFS2) to the time to progression on first treatment (TTP1). Sequence benefit was defined as a GMI exceeding 1.3 (GMI-high). GMI was correlated with overall survival (OS). OS1 and OS2 were measured from first randomization and second-line failure to death.

RESULTS

Four hundred and sixteen patients were randomized (209 in arm A, 207 in arm B). One hundred and seventy-five patients (42%) received the two sequences and were assessable for GMI (97 in arm A, 79 in arm B). The median GMI was higher in arm A than in arm B (0.62 versus 0.47, P = 0.04). Patients with a high GMI had a longer OS1 (median 14.9 versus 11.5 months, NS). Median OS2 was doubled in the GMI-high group (3.4 versus 1.6 months, NS).

CONCLUSION

GMI analyses suggest that ECX followed by FOLFIRI might represent a better therapeutic strategy than FOLFIRI followed by ECX. High GMI was associated with prolonged survival.

A proposal for a new PhD level curriculum on quantitative methods for drug development

This paper provides an overview of "Improving Design, Evaluation and Analysis of early drug development Studies" (IDEAS), a European Commission-funded network bringing together leading academic institutions and small- to large-sized pharmaceutical companies to train a cohort of graduate-level medical statisticians. The network is composed of a diverse mix of public and private sector partners spread across Europe, which will host 14 early-stage researchers for 36 months. IDEAS training activities are composed of a well-rounded mixture of specialist methodological components and generic transferable skills. Particular attention is paid to fostering collaborations between researchers and supervisors, which span academia and the private sector. Within this paper, we review existing medical statistics programmes (MSc and PhD) and highlight the training they provide on skills relevant to drug development. Motivated by this review and our experiences with the IDEAS project, we propose a concept for a joint, harmonised European PhD programme to train statisticians in quantitative methods for drug development.

Hyperprogression during anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy in patients with recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Pembrolizumab and nivolumab are immune checkpoint inhibitors targeting PD-1 that have recently been approved in pretreated recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) patients. In the clinic, some patients seem not only not to benefit from anti-PD-L1/PD-1 agents but rather to experience an acceleration of tumor growth kinetics (TGK).

Patients and methods

We retrospectively compared TGK on immunotherapy and TGK on last treatment in patients with R/M HNSCC treated with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors in four French centers. The TGK ratio (TGKR, ratio of the slope of tumor growth before treatment and the slope of tumor growth on treatment) was calculated. Hyperprogression was defined as a TGKR ≥ 2.

Results

From September 2012 to September 2015, 34 patients were identified. Patterns of recurrence included exclusive loco-regional recurrence in 14 patients, exclusive distant metastases in 11 patients, and both in 9 patients. No pseudo-progression was observed. Hyperprogression was observed in 10 patients (29%), including 9 patients with at least a locoregional recurrence, and only 1 patient with exclusively distant metastases. Hyperprogression significantly correlated with a regional recurrence (TGKR ≥ 2: 90% versus TGKR < 2: 37%, P = 0.008), but not with local or distant recurrence. Hyperprogression was associated with a shorter progression-free survival (PFS) according to RECIST (P = 0.003) and irRECIST (P = 0.02), but not with overall survival (P = 0.77).

Conclusions

Hyperprogression was observed in 29% of patients with R/M HNSCC treated with anti-PD-L1/PD-1 agents and correlated with a shorter PFS. It occurred in 39% of patients with at least a locoregional recurrence and 9% of patients with exclusively distant metastases. No pseudo-progressions were reported. Mechanisms and causality of hyperprogression should further be assessed through prospective controlled studies.

Patients' perceived tolerance of side effects in phase I cancer clinical trials: A qualitative study

This qualitative study aimed to explore cancer patients' perceived tolerance of side effects in phase I drug trials. Patients with solid tumours receiving molecularly targeted agents with/without chemotherapy were eligible for inclusion. In-depth semi-structured interviews were carried out with 17 patients with a median [range] age of 63 [41-72] years. Treatment was discontinued in seven patients. Verbatim transcripts of the audio-taped interviews were analysed using a constructivist grounded theory approach. Four conceptual categories emerged from data analysis, labelled "suffering from side effects" comprising a range of symptoms, psychosocial or role disturbances; "striving to cope with side effects" reflecting psychological strategies for managing side effects; "hoping" reflecting expectations about treatment efficacy and relief from side effects; and "appraisal of care." Among patients remaining in the trial, treatment was currently perceived as fairly tolerable. For most respondents, whether still in a trial or not, treatment discontinuation could not be justified by the non-tolerance of treatment side effects. These results question the adequacy of patient-perceived tolerance reports to determine an optimal drug dose for phase II trials. Confronted with patients' hopes and inappropriate beliefs, communication is challenging in phase I trials and could benefit from facilitating psychosocial interventions.

Statistical controversies in clinical research: requiem for the 3 + 3 design for phase I trials

BACKGROUND

More than 95% of published phase I trials have used the 3 + 3 design to identify the dose to be recommended for phase II trials. However, the statistical community agrees on the limitations of the 3 + 3 design compared with model-based approaches. Moreover, the mechanisms of action of targeted agents strongly challenge the hypothesis that the maximum tolerated dose constitutes the optimal dose, and more outcomes including clinical and biological activity increasingly need to be taken into account to identify the optimal dose.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We review key elements from clinical publications and from the statistical literature to show that the 3 + 3 design lacks the necessary flexibility to address the challenges of targeted agents.

RESULTS

The design issues raised by expansion cohorts, new definitions of dose-limiting toxicity and trials of combinations are not easily addressed by the 3 + 3 design or its extensions.

CONCLUSIONS

Alternative statistical proposals have been developed to make a better use of the complex data generated by phase I trials. Their applications require a close collaboration between all actors of early phase clinical trials.

A new approach to integrate toxicity grade and repeated treatment cycles in the analysis and reporting of phase I dose-finding trials

BACKGROUND

Safety assessment beyond the dose-limiting toxicity evaluation period provides relevant information to define the recommended phase II dose (RP2D) of a new treatment. We retrospectively analyzed three phase I trials to illustrate two indicators: per-cycle probability of graded toxicity and cumulative probability of severe toxicity over the treatment period.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data were collected from two continual reassessment method (CRM) trials (T1: aviscumine in solid tumors with short time on treatment; T2: erlotinib + radiotherapy in brainstem gliomas with longer time on treatment) and one 3 + 3 design (T3: liposomal doxorubicin + cyclophosphamide combination in ovarian carcinoma). The probability of severe and moderate or severe toxicity per cycle was estimated at each dose level with mixed proportional odds model. The cumulative probability of severe toxicity was also estimated with the time-to-event CRM.

RESULTS

Eighty-three patients were included in the three trials; 94, 96 and 72 treatment cycles were administered, in T1, T2 and T3, respectively. Moderate toxicities were at least twice as frequent as severe toxicities. An increased probability of toxicity over time was detected in T3 [P = 0.04; per-cycle probability of severe toxicity: 27% (cycle 1) to 59% (cycle 6) at the RP2D]. At the RP2D, 37% of patients experienced at least one severe toxicity over the first six cycles in T2, and 78% in T3.

CONCLUSIONS

Dedicated methods can be used to analyze toxicities from all cycles of treatment. They do not delay accrual and should be integrated in the analysis and reporting of phase I dose-finding trials.

REBECA: a phase I study of bevacizumab and whole-brain radiation therapy for the treatment of brain metastasis from solid tumours

BACKGROUND

Brain metastases (BMs) are associated with a poor prognosis. Standard treatment comprises whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT). As neo-angiogenesis is crucial in BM growth, combining angiogenesis inhibitors such as bevacizumab with radiotherapy is of interest. We aimed to identify the optimal regimen of bevacizumab combined with WBRT for BM for phase II evaluation and provide preliminary efficacy data.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this multicentre single-arm phase I study with a 3 + 3 dose-escalation design, patients with unresectable BM from solid tumours received three cycles of bevacizumab at escalating doses [5, 10 and 15 mg/kg every 2 weeks at dose levels (DL) 0, 1 and 2, respectively] and WBRT (30 Gy/15 fractions/3 weeks) administered from day 15. DL3 consisted of bevacizumab 15 mg/kg with WBRT from day 15 in 30 Gy/10 fractions/2 weeks. Safety was evaluated using NCI-CTCAE version 3. BM response (RECIST 1.1) was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging at 6 weeks and 3 months after WBRT.

RESULTS

Nineteen patients were treated, of whom 13 had breast cancer. There were no DLTs. Grade 1-2 in-field and out-field toxicities occurred for five and nine patients across all DLs, respectively, including three and six patients (including one patient with both, so eight patients overall) of nine patients in DL3. One patient experienced BM progression during treatment (DL0). At the 3-month post-treatment assessment, 10 patients showed a BM response: one of three treated at DL0, one of three at DL1, two of three at DL2 and six of seven at DL3, including one complete response. BM progression occurred in five patients, resulting in two deaths. The remaining patient died from extracranial disease progression.

CONCLUSION

Bevacizumab combined with WBRT appears to be a tolerable treatment of BM. DL3 warrants further efficacy evaluation based on the favourable safety/efficacy balance. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01332929.

Randomised proof-of-concept phase II trial comparing targeted therapy based on tumour molecular profiling vs conventional therapy in patients with refractory cancer: results of the feasibility part of the SHIVA trial

Background:

The SHIVA trial is a multicentric randomised proof-of-concept phase II trial comparing molecularly targeted therapy based on tumour molecular profiling vs conventional therapy in patients with any type of refractory cancer. Results of the feasibility study on the first 100 enrolled patients are presented.

Methods:

Adult patients with any type of metastatic cancer who failed standard therapy were eligible for the study. The molecular profile was performed on a mandatory biopsy, and included mutations and gene copy number alteration analyses using high-throughput technologies, as well as the determination of oestrogen, progesterone, and androgen receptors by immunohistochemistry (IHC).

Results:

Biopsy was safely performed in 95 of the first 100 included patients. Median time between the biopsy and the therapeutic decision taken during a weekly molecular biology board was 26 days. Mutations, gene copy number alterations, and IHC analyses were successful in 63 (66%), 65 (68%), and 87 (92%) patients, respectively. A druggable molecular abnormality was present in 38 patients (40%).

Conclusions:

The establishment of a comprehensive tumour molecular profile was safe, feasible, and compatible with clinical practice in refractory cancer patients.

Tumour growth kinetics assessment: added value to RECIST in cancer patients treated with molecularly targeted agents

Background:

Treatment effect is categorised into four classes by RECIST based on the evolution of the size of target lesions and the occurrence of new lesions, irrespective of tumour growth kinetics before treatment. This study aimed at evaluating the added value of tumour growth kinetics assessment to RECIST in patients treated with molecularly targeted agents (MTAs).

Methods:

On-study imaging, along with pre-baseline imaging, of patients treated with MTA(s) in clinical trials at Institut Curie were centrally reviewed. The tumour growth ratio (TGr), defined as the ratio of the slope of tumour growth before treatment and the slope of tumour growth on treatment between the nadir and disease progression, was calculated for each patient.

Results:

A total of 50 patients included in 18 trials were eligible for the study. Among the 44 patients who withdrew from the study because of disease progression according to the investigators’ assessment, 18 patients (41%) had a TGr <0.9. Among these 18 patients, 5 had disease progression according to RECIST 1.1 based on our retrospective reassessment of on-study imaging and occurrence of no new lesion during study treatment.

Conclusion:

Our preliminary results suggest that a substantial proportion of patients treated with MTAs have discontinued treatment although being potentially benefitted from them.

Using the CES-D scale in a large cohort study and dealing with missing data: Application to the French E3N cohort

Introduction

The CES-D scale is commonly used to assess depressive symptoms (DS) in large population-based studies. Missing values in items of the scale may create biases.

Objectives

To explore reasons for not completing items of the CES-D scale and to perform sensitivity analysis of the prevalence of DS to assess the impact of different missing data hypotheses.

Methods

71412 women included in the French E3N cohort returned in 2005 a questionnaire containing the CES-D scale. 45% presented at least one missing value in the scale. An interview study was carried out on a random sample of 204 participants to examine the different hypotheses for the missing value mechanism. The prevalence of DS was estimated according to different methods for handling missing values: complete cases analysis, single imputation, multiple imputation under MAR (missing at random) and MNAR (missing not at random) assumptions.

Results

The interviews showed that participants were not embarrassed to fill in questions about DS. Potential reasons of nonresponse were identified. MAR and MNAR hypotheses remained plausible and were explored.

Among complete responders, the prevalence of DS was 26.1%. After multiple imputation under MAR assumption, it was 28.6%, 29.8% and 31.7% among women presenting up to 4, to 10 and to 20 missing values, respectively. The estimates were robust after applying various scenarios of MNAR data for the sensitivity analysis.

Conclusions

The CES-D scale can easily be used to assess DS in large cohorts. Multiple imputation under MAR assumption allows to reliably handle missing values.