[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study]

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P value<linear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

Smoking and Mortality in Tianjin, China: A Death Registry-Based Case-Control Study, 2010-2014

INTRODUCTION

We conducted a mortality case-control study to assess the risks of all-cause and major causes of death attributable to smoking in Tianjin from 2010 through 2014. The death registry-based study used data from The Tianjin All Causes of Death Surveillance System, which collects information routinely on smoking of the deceased in the death certificate of Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

METHODS

Cases (n = 154,086) and controls (n = 25,476) were deaths at 35 to 79 years from smoking-related and nonsmoking-related causes, respectively. Mortality rate ratios (RRs) for ever smokers versus never smokers, with adjustment for sex, 5-year age group, education, marital status, and year of death, and smoking-attributed fractions were calculated.

RESULTS

The RRs in men were 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.43) for all causes and 3.07 (95% CI, 2.91-3.24) for lung cancer, and in women were 1.46 (95% CI, 1.39-1.54) and 4.07 (95% CI, 3.81-4.35). The smoking-attributed fractions for all causes and for lung cancer in men were 15.4% and 50.2%, respectively, and in women were 7.3% and 32.7%, respectively. Smoking annually caused an average of 3,756 (9.4%) deaths, mostly from lung cancer in men (47.4%) and women (66.9%). Women who started smoking before 30 had a higher RR (1.79; 95% CI, 1.63-1.97) than men who did so (1.48; 95% CI, 1.41-1.56).

CONCLUSION

Lung cancer was the main cause of smoking-induced deaths in both sexes. Tobacco use is a major cause of premature deaths in men aged 35 to 79 years. Young women must be urged to not start smoking because they could have greater risk of all-cause and lung cancer deaths than men do.

[Trend of premature mortality from chronic and non-communicable diseases in Tianjin, 1999-2015]

Objective: To explore the trends and distribution of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes in different sex and residential areas in Tianjin so as to provide basis for setting up prevention and control programs on premature mortality. Methods: Population data on premature mortality in 1999-2015 were from the 'Tianjin population based mortality surveillance system' maintained by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Data related to permanent residents was from the Tianjin Municipal Public Security Bureau. Standardized premature mortality rates were calculated and adjusted for age and gender according to the '2000 world standard population'. Premature mortality probabilities were analyzed according to the methods recommended by WHO. Joinpoint regression and Cochran-Armitage trend methods were used to determine the significance of differences on the trends of mortality. Results: From 1999 to 2015, the premature mortality appeared consistent (P<0.001) declining in the above-said four diseases with the APC of probabilities as-2.92%, -1.13%, -9.51% and -3.39%, respectively. The probabilities of premature mortality were all declining consistently in both men and women and in both urban and rural areas in Tianjin. From 1999 to 2015, the probabilities of the four main NCDs were between 19.67% and 12.85% (APC=-2.49%, P<0.001), higher in women (from 17.02% to 9.17%, APC=-3.84%, P<0.001) than that in men (from 22.27% to 16.47%, APC=-1.59%, P<0.001), in urban (from 21.04% to 12.34%, APC=-3.26%, P<0.001) than that in rural areas (from 17.80% to 13.54%, APC=-1.54%, P<0.001). Conclusion: Our findings suggested that premature mortality in Tianjin was decreasing during 1999-2015 but attention should still be called for on males and people living in the rural areas to further reducing the premature mortality.

[Clinical application of CT-guided radiofrequency ablation combined with biopsy synchronously to multiple small nodules of lung metastatic tumors]

Objective: To investigate the therapeutic efficacy and safety of CT-guided radiofrequency ablation(RFA)combined with biopsy synchronously to multiple small nodules of metastatic tumors in lung. Method: From January 2016 to December 2016, a total of 86 patients in the General Hospital of People's Liberation Army with 144 lesions were divide into two groups(all the lesions were less than 1 cm). Group A with 51 cases located in the lung periphery underwent biopsy prior to RFA.Group B with 35 cases located in the middle and inner side of lung adjacent to the vasculatures contrarily underwent RFA first.The changes of these lesions during the 1 to 12-month were followed up. Results: All the procedures were completed successfully.The intra operative CT scanning showed the ablation zones were completely covered by the indicative "halo sign" respectively.The P value was 0.818, 0.155 and 0.452 respectively, in the number of nodules, pathological results positive rate and complications in the rank and inspection for A, B two groups, which were all higher than 0.05.Though different strategies according to different location of the nodes, the two groups can achieve safe and effective treatments.All patients in two groups had high density ablation zones on their 1-month post operative CT without enhancement.3-and 6-post operative CT illustrated a decrease of lesions, 12-month post operative CT showed the lesions turned to fibrous stripes. Conclusion: The CT-guided RFA combined with biopsy synchronously to multiple small nodules of metastatic tumors in lung is safe and effective, for the lesions located in the middle or inner side of lung, RFA prior to the biopsy can avoid the massive hemoptysis.

[Analysis on the trends in mortality following acute myocardial infarction from 1999 to 2015 in Tianjin of China]

Objective: To explore the trends change in mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2015 in Tianjin, China. Methods: AMI mortality data from 1999 to 2015 were obtained from Tianjin population based mortality surveillance system operated by the Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and population data of permanent residents were obtained from Tianjin Municipal Public Security Bureau. The trends change and affecting factors including gender, age, and geographic distribution on mortality following AMI were analyzed. Results: (1)The standardized mortality rate of AMI in Tianjin from 1999 to 2015 was 52.32/100 000 to 48.62/100 000. Adjusted AMI mortality rate from 1999 to 2013 was 52.32/100 000 to 73.72/100 000, indicating an increased trend(Z=32.15, P<0.001)with an annual percent change (APC) of 2.53%. Adjusted AMI mortality rate was decreased from 2013 to 2015: 73.72/100 000 to 48.62/100 000 (Z=-22.80, P<0.001), and APC was -19.07%. Above trends change was similar for male and female residents (all P<0.001). (2)The AMI standardized mortality rate of male was significantly higher than that of female during the 17 years. The AMI standardized mortality of male was significantly higher than that of female in<35, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and ≥65 years old group, respectively. AMI mortality rate increased with age. (3)Except in the year of 2002 and 2003, the AMI mortality rate were significantly higher in rural residents than in urban residents during this study period (P<0.001). Adjusted AMI mortality in urban residents increased from 1999 to 2009(Z=8.05, P<0.001, APC=1.43%), and decreased in the year from 2009 to 2015 (Z=-18.71, P<0.001, APC=-6.32%). Adjusted AMI mortality in rural residents increased in the year of 1999 to 2013(Z=56.05, P<0.001, APC=5.84%), and decreased in the year of 2013 to 2015 (Z=-24.40, P<0.001, APC=-21.35%). Conclusions: Our results suggest that AMI mortality in Tianjin increased from 1999 to 2013, and decreased from 2013 to 2015, and male and rural residents have higher AMI mortality. Related prevention and intervention measures should be taken to decrease AMI mortality, especially for male and rural residents.

[Status quo on smoking and related change pattern of smoking related behavior in past 20 years in urban residents in Tianjin]

Objective: To understand the status quo of smoking and change pattern of smoking related behaviors in the past 20 years in the urban adults in Tianjin. Methods: Data was from the study of Chinese Chronic Disease and Risk Factors (2015). Multi stage stratified random sampling method was used to conduct a questionnaire survey in 7 surveillance sites in Tianjin. Results: in the urban residents aged>20 years were compared with those in surveys in 1996 and 2010. Results In 2015, the smoking rate in men and women aged>20 years in Tianjin were 41.1% and 4.5% respectively. The average age of starting smoking was (19.2±4.7) years for men and (24.8±10.9) years for women, showing a younger age trend. Compared with the data from 1996 and 2010, the smoking rate in the urban residents was in decrease, but the rate of successful smoking cessation was in increase in 2015, the differences were significant. Conclusions: Since 1996, the rate of smoking in the urban residents of Tianjin has been in decline, however it is still at a high level, especially in women. The average age of starting smoking remains to be younger. It is necessary to strengthen the health education about harm of smoking in adolescents.

[The trend of chronic lower respiratory disease mortality of the residents in Tianjin, China, 2000-2016]

Objective: To explore the trends and distribution of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality of the residents with different characteristics from 2000 to 2016 in Tianjin. Methods: COPD mortality data in 2000-2016 were from Tianjin population based mortality surveillance system. The mortality rate of COPD, difference in the rate by gender, age, and geographic distribution, and the trend over years were analyzed. Age-sex-standardized mortality rates of COPD were calculated using the year 2000 world standard population. Joinpoint regression and Cochran-Armitage trend analysis were used to examine the trend of mortality. Results: The crude COPD mortality rate in Tianjin decreased from 57.57/100 000 in 2000 to 28.23/100 000 in 2016 (annual percent change (APC)=-5.01%, Z=-64.76, P<0.001), and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 56.53/100 000 in 2000 to13.88/100 000 in 2016 (APC=-9.17%, Z=-100.83, P<0.001). The crude COPD mortality rate of males decreased from 54.57/100 000 to 27.77/100 000 (APC=-4.89%, Z=-43.63, P<0.001) and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 57.52/100 000 to 14.63/100 000 (APC=-9.07%, Z=-71.48, P<0.001). The crude COPD mortality rate of females decreased from 60.63/100 000 to 28.68/100 000 (APC=-5.12%, Z=-47.92, P<0.001) and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 55.53/100 000 to 13 13/100 000 (APC=-9.27%, Z=-71.13, P<0.001). The crude mortality rate of COPD in urban areas decreased from 45.07/100 000 to 19.54/100 000 (APC=-5.35%, Z=-42.38, P<0.001) and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 39.24/100 000 to 7.45/100 000 (Z=-63.97, P<0.001, APC=-10.22%). The crude mortality rate of COPD in rural areas decreased from 70.20/100 000 to 37.24/100 000 (APC=-4.77%, Z=-48.77, P<0.001) and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 78.88/100 000 to 25.70/100 000 (APC=-7.59%, Z=-72.43, P<0.001). The COPD mortality rate in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas (P<0.001). The COPD mortality rate in 35 years old and over decreased from 2000 to 2016 (P<0.001). Conclusion: The COPD mortality in Tianjin decreased from 2000 to 2016. More efforts are need to reduce COPD mortality in Tianjin, in particular people in rural areas.

[Epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic stroke among residents in Tianjin from 1999 to 2018]

Objective: To explore the incidence characteristics of hemorrhagic stroke among residents in Tianjin from 1999 to 2018, to provide data for formulating accurate prevention and control strategies. Methods: The incidence rate of hemorrhagic stroke and its distribution in different ages, gender, urban and rural areas were analyzed by monitoring new hemorrhagic stroke cases in Tianjin from 1999 to 2018. The standardized incidence rate was calculated based on the six^th national population census in 2010. χ² test was used to compare the incidence rate. The trend of age and trend of age were analyzed by trend χ² test. Joinpoint software was used to analyze the change in the annual incidence rate. Results: During the study period, hemorrhagic stroke accounted for 13.08% of all stroke cases. The incidence rate of a hemorrhagic stroke in Tianjin residents was 75.38/100 000-46.70/100 000, showing a downward trend (Z=-28.63, P<0.01, APC=-1.45%). After adjustment of age and gender, the standardized rate was 57.93/100 000-27.55/100 000, still showing a downward trend (Z=-54.72, P<0.01, APC=-3.38%). The incidence rate of male and female hemorrhagic stroke decreased, and the incidence rate of males in all ages and age groups was higher than that in females (P<0.01). The age of onset is younger, and the standardized incidence rate of an urban hemorrhagic stroke in the city decreases (P<0.01), and the city descends faster. Conclusions: The characteristics of hemorrhagic stroke in Tianjin are similar to those in developed countries. The lower age group and rural population are the key groups of intervention. The study of incidence characteristics and trends is of great significance for accurate prevention and control of stroke, reducing disease and medical costs.