Quantitative assessment of provability of radiation-related cancers considering unavoidable existence of unadjusted risk factors

The attribution of stochastic effects to exposure to ionizing radiation has been qualitatively discussed by introducing two distinct concepts of provability and probability. This study aims to develop a method of quantitatively assessing the provability of radiation-related cancers. To this end, the 'minimum provable dose' (MPD) was developed and applied to actual cancer mortality in Japan. The background lifetime risk of cancer mortality was calculated for the esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lungs, skin, breasts, ovaries, bladder, and bone marrow as well as the age-specific risk coefficients reproducing those given in the 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Comparing the relative ratio of MPDs, which was defined herein as the 'provability index' (PI), we quantitatively ranked radiation-related cancers for different tissues and organs predicated on provability for ages of 10, 30, 50, and 0-85+  years at exposure. We discuss the radiological protection of male emergency workers focusing on cancers highly prioritized according to the ranking (i.e. colon, bone marrow, and bladder). The present study proposed the system to quantitatively evaluate the level of radiological protection taking into account the variations of the background cancer risk on the provability of radiation-related cancers.