Alavinejad M, Tosato M, Bragazzi NL, McCarthy Z, Wu J, Bourouiba L. Markers of community outbreak and facility type for mitigation of COVID-19 in long-term care homes in Ontario, Canada: Insights and implications from a time-series analysis.
Ann Epidemiol 2024;
90:9-20. [PMID:
37690739 DOI:
10.1016/j.annepidem.2023.08.005]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Revised: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/19/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE
The resident deaths among Long Term Care Home (LTCH) accounted for more than 65% of total deaths in the province of Ontario, Canada, during March 29 to June 3, 2020, yet not all LTCHs were severely affected.
METHODS
We carried out a retrospective cohort study, with case control for questions for which data allowed, with LTCH COVID-19 databases obtained from Ontario's Ministry of Long Term Care. We performed a combined temporal and spatial data analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths among LTCH residents, identified trends, contributing factors, and early markers of LTCH outbreak severity.
RESULTS
Our analysis shows that for-profit LTCHs had higher death-to-bed ratio, also with an average rate of increase of death-to-bed ratio higher for for-profit homes than other types of management. We find from uni- and multi-variable analyses (linear and nonlinear) that staff infection has the strongest association with death-to-bed ratio from among the descriptor variables considered, reflecting the risk of the disease in the health region/community. We also identify a delay of up to 8 days between the trends in fatalities among individuals outside LTCHs and that of LTCH residents. We did find an association between policy change to single LTCH/staff and reduction in weekly LTCH resident death, albeit with an expected time delay of about 7-10 days.
CONCLUSIONS
The association between the risk of COVID-19 in the health region and the deaths among LTCH residents, and the delay between fatality among individuals residing outside and inside LTCHs suggests that fatality in a health region could be a predictor of outbreak in LTCHs within the same health region.
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