TreeGOER: A database with globally observed environmental ranges for 48,129 tree species

The TreeGOER (Tree Globally Observed Environmental Ranges) database provides information for most known tree species of their environmental ranges for 38 bioclimatic, eight soil and three topographic variables. It is based on species distribution modelling analyses of more than 44 million occurrences. The database can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7922927. Statistics that include 5% and 95% quantiles were estimated for a cleaned and taxonomically standardized occurrence data set with different methods of outlier detection, with estimates for roughly 45% of species being based on 20 or more observation records. Where sufficient representative observations are available, the ranges provide useful preliminary estimates of suitable conditions particularly for lesser-known species under climate change. Inferred core bioclimatic ranges of species along global temperature and moisture index gradients and across continents follow the known global distribution of tree diversity such as its highest levels in moist tropical forests and the 'odd man out' pattern of lower levels in Africa. To demonstrate how global analyses for large numbers of tree species can easily be done in R with TreeGOER, here I present two case studies. The first case study investigated latitudinal trends of tree vulnerability and compared these with previous results obtained for urban trees. The second case study focused on tropical areas, compared trends in different longitudinal zones and investigated patterns for the moisture index. TreeGOER is expected to benefit researchers conducting biogeographical and climate change research for a wide range of tree species at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

Pathway to achieve a sustainable food and land-use transition in India

India has committed to reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% from the 2005 level by 2030 in alignment with objectives of the Paris Agreement. This will require a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food and land-use sector. In this paper, we construct three potential pathways for India to achieve its emissions target by 2050 involving moderate ambitions of mitigation action (BAU), moderate ambitions combined with achieving healthy diets (BAU + NIN), and high levels of mitigation action inclusive of healthy diets (SUSTAINABLE). Using an integrated accounting tool, the FABLE Calculator, that harmonizes various socioeconomic and biophysical data, we project these pathways under the conditions of cross-country balanced trade flows. Results from the projections show that the demand for cereals will increase by 2050, leading to increased GHG emissions under BAU. Under the SUSTAINABLE pathways, GHG emissions will decrease over the same period due to reduced demand for cereals, whereas significant crop productivity and harvest intensity gains would lead to increased crop production. The exercise reveals the indispensability of healthy diets, improved crop, and livestock productivity, and net-zero deforestation in achieving India's mid-century emission targets from the agriculture sector.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01193-0.