Parasitoids indicate major climate-induced shifts in arctic communities

Climatic impacts are especially pronounced in the Arctic, which as a region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Here, we investigate how mean climatic conditions and rates of climatic change impact parasitoid insect communities in 16 localities across the Arctic. We focus on parasitoids in a widespread habitat, Dryas heathlands, and describe parasitoid community composition in terms of larval host use (i.e., parasitoid use of herbivorous Lepidoptera vs. pollinating Diptera) and functional groups differing in their closeness of host associations (koinobionts vs. idiobionts). Of the latter, we expect idiobionts-as being less fine-tuned to host development-to be generally less tolerant to cold temperatures, since they are confined to attacking hosts pupating and overwintering in relatively exposed locations. To further test our findings, we assess whether similar climatic variables are associated with host abundances in a 22 year time series from Northeast Greenland. We find sites which have experienced a temperature rise in summer while retaining cold winters to be dominated by parasitoids of Lepidoptera, with the reverse being true for the parasitoids of Diptera. The rate of summer temperature rise is further associated with higher levels of herbivory, suggesting higher availability of lepidopteran hosts and changes in ecosystem functioning. We also detect a matching signal over time, as higher summer temperatures, coupled with cold early winter soils, are related to high herbivory by lepidopteran larvae, and to declines in the abundance of dipteran pollinators. Collectively, our results suggest that in parts of the warming Arctic, Dryas is being simultaneously exposed to increased herbivory and reduced pollination. Our findings point to potential drastic and rapid consequences of climate change on multitrophic-level community structure and on ecosystem functioning and highlight the value of collaborative, systematic sampling effort.

Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

Climate change is affecting species' distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice-associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population-level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest-based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid-century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.

Predation risk and space use of a declining Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) population

The abundance of ungulate populations may fluctuate in response to several limiting factors, including climate, diseases, and predation. In the northern Richardson Mountains, Canada, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) have undergone a major decline in the past decades and predation by grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) was suspected as a leading cause. To better understand the relationship between these three species located in this rugged and remote ecosystem, we relied on a combination of indirect methods. We investigated the apparent role of predation on the Dall sheep population using spatial ecology and stable isotopes. We examined seasonal variation in predation risk, focusing on how it may affect Dall sheep habitat use and sexual segregation, and we evaluated the proportion of Dall sheep in the diet of both predators using stable isotopes. The movements of the three species were monitored by satellite telemetry. Dall sheep habitat use patterns were analyzed using topographical features, greenness index, land cover, and apparent predation risk. The diets of grizzly bears and wolves were examined using a Bayesian mixing model for carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes. We found that Dall sheep habitat use varied seasonally, with different patterns for ewes and rams. Exposure to grizzly bear risk was higher for rams during summer, while ewes were further exposed to wolf apparent predation risk during winter. The importance of safe habitats for ewes was reflected in space use patterns. Stable isotopes analyses suggested that the diet of grizzly bears was largely from animal sources, with mountain mammals comprising about one quarter. Wolves mostly fed on both aquatic browsers and mountain mammals. Diet variation between individual predators suggested that some individuals specialized on mountain mammals, likely including Dall sheep. We conclude that grizzly bear and wolf apparent predation risk are important in driving Dall sheep habitat use and play a role in sexual segregation. Overall, this study presents an innovative combination of indirect methods that could be applied elsewhere to better understand predator-prey dynamics in remote ecosystems.

Time-dependent memory and individual variation in Arctic brown bears (Ursus arctos)

BACKGROUND

Animal movement modelling provides unique insight about how animals perceive their landscape and how this perception may influence space use. When coupled with data describing an animal's environment, ecologists can fit statistical models to location data to describe how spatial memory informs movement.

METHODS

We performed such an analysis on a population of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Arctic using a model incorporating time-dependent spatial memory patterns. Brown bear populations in the Arctic lie on the periphery of the species' range, and as a result endure harsh environmental conditions. In this kind of environment, effective use of memory to inform movement strategies could spell the difference between survival and mortality.

RESULTS

The model we fit tests four alternate hypotheses (some incorporating memory; some not) against each other, and we found a high degree of individual variation in how brown bears used memory. We found that 71% (15 of 21) of the bears used complex, time-dependent spatial memory to inform their movement decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

These results, coupled with existing knowledge on individual variation in the population, highlight the diversity of foraging strategies for Arctic brown bears while also displaying the inference that can be drawn from this innovative movement model.

Differences between mates at the TLR1Lb locus are associated with lower reproductive success in a long-lived seabird

Genetic diversity can influence fitness components such as survival and reproductive success. Yet the association between genetic diversity and fitness based on neutral loci is sometime very weak and inconsistent, with relationships varying among taxa due to confounding effects of population demography and life history. Fitness-diversity relationships are likely to be stronger and more consistent for genes known to influence phenotypic traits, such as immunity-related genes, and may also depend on the genetic differences between breeding partners. We recorded breeding success of individuals and breeding pairs over 20 years to evaluate the relationships between reproductive success and both neutral genetic variation (using 7,830 single nucleotide polymorphisms) and functional variation (four toll-like receptor [TLRs] loci) with reproductive success in thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia). Individual genetic diversity (both neutral and functional) was unrelated to reproductive success, but surprisingly, successful multi-year reproductive success decreased with the genetic difference between breeding partners at TLR1Lb. This result may be due to an advantage of specific alleles at TLR1Lb. This study is one of few addressing both individual genetic variation and genetic similarity between mates at both neutral and functional variation in a long-lived bird.

A colonial-nesting seabird shows limited heart rate responses to natural variation in threats of polar bears

Several predator-prey systems are in flux as an indirect result of climate change. In the Arctic, earlier sea-ice loss is driving polar bears (Ursus maritimus) onto land when many colonial nesting seabirds are breeding. The result is a higher threat of nest predation for birds with potential limited ability to respond. We quantified heart rate change in a large common eider (Somateria mollissima) breeding colony in the Canadian Arctic to explore their adaptive capacity to keep pace with the increasing risk of egg predation by polar bears. Eiders displayed on average higher heart rates from baseline when polar bears were within their field of view. Moreover, eiders were insensitive to variation in the distance bears were to their nests, but exhibited mild bradycardia (lowered heart rate) the longer the eider was exposed to the bear given the hen's visibility. Results indicate that a limited ability to assess the risks posed by polar bears may result in long-term fitness consequences for eiders from the increasing frequency in interactions with this predator.

Telemetry without collars: performance of fur- and ear-mounted satellite tags for evaluating the movement and behaviour of polar bears

The study of animal movement provides insights into underlying ecological processes and informs analyses of behaviour and resource use, which have implications for species management and conservation. The tools used to study animal movement have evolved over the past decades, allowing for data collection from a variety of species, including those living in remote environments. Satellite-linked radio and GPS collars have been used to study polar bear (Ursus maritimus) ecology and movements throughout the circumpolar Arctic for over 50 years. However, due to morphology and growth constraints, only adult female polar bears can be reliably collared. Collars have proven to be safe, but there has been opposition to their use, resulting in a deficiency in data across much of the species' range. To bolster knowledge of movement characteristics and behaviours for polar bears other than adult females, while also providing an alternative to collars, we tested the use of fur- and ear-mounted telemetry tags that can be affixed to polar bears of any sex and age. We tested three fur tag designs (SeaTrkr, tribrush and pentagon tags), which we affixed to 15 adult and 1 subadult male polar bears along the coast of Hudson Bay during August-September 2021-2022. Fur tags were compared with ear tags deployed on 42 subadult and adult male polar bears captured on the coast or the sea ice between 2016 and 2022. We used data from the tags to quantify the amount of time subadult and adult males spent resting versus traveling while on land. Our results show the three fur tag designs remained functional for shorter mean durations (SeaTrkr = 58 days; tribrush = 47 days; pentagon = 22 days) than ear tags (121 days), but positional error estimates were comparable among the Argos-equipped tags. The GPS/Iridium-equipped SeaTrkr fur tags provided higher resolution and more frequent location data. Combined, the tags provided sufficient data to model different behavioural states. Furthermore, as hypothesized, subadult and adult male polar bears spent the majority of their time resting while on land, increasing time spent traveling as temperatures cooled. Fur tags show promise as a short-term means of collecting movement data from free-ranging polar bears.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40317-024-00373-2.