A Random Forest Genomic Classifier for Tumor Agnostic Prediction of Response to Anti-PD1 Immunotherapy

Tumor mutational burden (TMB), a surrogate for tumor neoepitope burden, is used as a pan-tumor biomarker to identify patients who may benefit from anti-program cell death 1 (PD1) immunotherapy, but it is an imperfect biomarker. Multiple additional genomic characteristics are associated with anti-PD1 responses, but the combined predictive value of these features and the added informativeness of each respective feature remains unknown. We evaluated whether machine learning (ML) approaches using proposed determinants of anti-PD1 response derived from whole exome sequencing (WES) could improve prediction of anti-PD1 responders over TMB alone. Random forest classifiers were trained on publicly available anti-PD1 data (n = 104), and subsequently tested on an independent anti-PD1 cohort (n = 69). Both the training and test datasets included a range of cancer types such as non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), melanoma, and smaller numbers of patients from other tumor types. Features used include summaries such as TMB and number of frameshift mutations, as well as more gene-level features such as counts of mutations associated with immune checkpoint response and resistance. Both ML algorithms demonstrated area under the receiver-operator curves (AUC) that exceeded TMB alone (AUC 0.63 "human-guided," 0.64 "cluster," and 0.58 TMB alone). Mutations within oncogenes disproportionately modulate anti-PD1 responses relative to their overall contribution to tumor neoepitope burden. The use of a ML algorithm evaluating multiple proposed genomic determinants of anti-PD1 responses modestly improves performance over TMB alone, highlighting the need to integrate other biomarkers to further improve model performance.

Multi-omic profiling of simultaneous ductal carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer

PURPOSE

The progression of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) to invasive breast carcinoma (IBC) in humans is highly variable. To better understand the relationship between them, we performed a multi-omic characterization of co-occurring DCIS and IBC lesions in a cohort of individuals.

METHODS

Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples from 50 patients with co-occurring DCIS and IBC lesions were subjected to DNA-seq and whole transcriptome RNA-seq. Paired DCIS and IBC multi-omics profiles were then interrogated for DNA mutations, gene expression profiles and pathway analysis.

RESULTS

Most small variants and copy number variations were shared between co-occurring DCIS and IBC lesions, with IBC exhibiting on average a higher degree of additional mutations. However, 36% of co-occurring lesions shared no common mutations and 49% shared no common copy number variations. The most frequent genomic variants in both DCIS and IBC were PIK3CA, TP53, KMT2C, MAP3K1, GATA3 and SF3B1, with KMT2C being more frequent in DCIS and TP53 and MAP3K1 more frequent in IBC, though the numbers are too small for definitive conclusions. The most frequent copy number variations were seen in MCL1, CKSB1 and ERBB2. ERBB2 changes were not seen in IBC unless present in the corresponding DCIS. Transcriptional profiles were highly distinct between DCIS and IBC, with DCIS exhibiting upregulation of immune-related signatures, while IBC showed significant overexpression in genes and pathways associated with cell division and proliferation. Interestingly, DCIS and IBC exhibited significant differential expression of different components of extracellular matrix (ECM) formation and regulation, with DCIS showing overexpression of ECM-membrane interaction components while IBC showed upregulation of genes associated with fibronectin and invadopodia.

CONCLUSION

While most co-occurring DCIS and IBC were mutationally similar and suggestive of a common clonal progenitor, transcriptionally the lesions are highly distinct, with IBC expressing key pathways that facilitate invasion and proliferation. These results are suggestive of additional levels of regulation, epigenetic or other, that facilitate the acquisition of invasive properties during tumor evolution.