Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations

BACKGROUND

Small populations that have been isolated by conflict make vaccination and surveillance difficult, threatening polio eradication. Silent circulation is caused by asymptomatic infections. It is currently not clear whether the dynamics of waning immunity also influence the risk of silent circulation in the absence of vaccination. Such circulation can, nevertheless, be present following a declaration of elimination as a result of inadequate acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (AFPS) or environmental surveillance (ES).

METHODS

We have constructed a stochastic model to understand how stochastic effects alter the ability of small populations to sustain virus circulation in the absence of vaccination. We analyzed how the stochastic process determinants of the duration of silent circulation that could have been detected by ES were affected by R 0 , waning dynamics, population size, and AFPS sensitivity in a discrete individual stochastic model with homogeneous contagiousness and random mixing. We measured the duration of silent circulation both by the interval between detected acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and the duration of circulation until elimination.

RESULTS

As R 0 increased and population size increased, the interval between detected AFP cases and the duration of circulation until elimination increased. As AFPS detection rates decreased, the interval between detected AFP cases increased. There was up to a 22 % chance of silent circulation lasting for more than 3 years with 100 % AFP detection. The duration of silent circulation was not affected by the waning immunity dynamics.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated that small populations have the potential to sustain prolonged silent circulation. Surveillance in these areas should be intensified before declaring elimination. To further validate these conclusions, it is necessary to realistically relax the simplifying assumptions about mixing and waning.

Human parechovirus type 6 and Guillain-Barré syndrome: a case report

A previously healthy 6-year-old boy was admitted to hospital with hypotonia and hyposthenia of lower limbs. Electromyography and slow motor nerve conduction velocity test identified a lower limb acute motor axonal neuropathy. Brain and spinal cord magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated multifocal cortical gray matter lesions in both cerebral hemispheres consistent with gray matter acute disseminated encephalitis otherwise with viral/Mycoplasma pneumoniae encephalitis, and signs of involvement of anterior nerve roots of the cauda equina consistent with Guillain-Barré syndrome. The patient resulted negative to routinely bacterial and viral investigations but positive to human parechovirus that sequence analyses confirmed as type 6. Intravenous immunoglobulins and methylprednisolone treatment were administered but did not relieve the symptoms of Guillain-Barré syndrome. The disease improved gradually over the next 3-month follow-up with a complete remission of both central and peripheral nervous system symptoms.

Corrigendum to "Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations" [Infectious Disease Modeling 2 (2017) 431-440]

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.11.001.].

The sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance - the case of South Sudan: retrospective secondary analysis of AFP surveillance data 2014-2019

Introduction

South Sudan has made quite impressive progress in interrupting wild poliovirus and maintaining a polio-free status since the last case was reported in 2009. South Sudan introduced different complementary strategies to enhance acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. Hence, the objective of this study is to evaluate the sensitivity of the surveillance system using the WHO recommended surveillance standard and highlight the progress and challenges over the years.

Methods

we conducted a retrospective, descriptive, quantitative study design and used the available secondary AFP surveillance database.

Results

the overall non-polio AFP rate was 6.2/100,000 children under 15 years old in the study period. The stool adequacy was maintained well above the certification level of surveillance. The two main surveillance performance indicators were met at the national level throughout the study period. In contrast, only five out of ten states persistently attained and maintained the two main surveillance performance indicators throughout the study period, while in 2019 all states achieved except for Jonglei state. During the analysis period, no wild poliovirus was isolated except two circulating Vaccine Derived Poliovirus Type 2 (cVDPV2) cases in 2014 and one Immunodeficiency Vaccine Derived Poliovirus Type 2 (iVDPV2) case in 2015. However, on average, three cases were classified as polio compatible with each year of the study.

Conclusion

South Sudan met the two key surveillance performance indicators and had a sensitive AFP surveillance system during the period studied. We recommend intensifying surveillance activities in the former conflict-affected states and counties to maintain polio-free status.

'Silent' and 'noisy' areas: acute flaccid paralysis surveillance at subnational level, Australia, 2001-2015

Background

Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance rates are used as an indicator of surveillance sensitivity to detect poliomyelitis with an expected rate of ≥1 case per 100 000 population in children under 15 years of age.

Methods

The Australian AFP detection rates at sub-national (statistical local area) level were analysed using χ2 goodness of fit tests and exact Poisson probabilities for the combined years 2001-2015 to detect 'silent areas', which may require improved AFP detection efforts, and areas with greater than expected rates, which may indicate unexplained clusters such as those due to enterovirus infection.

Results

Eight (n=8/87, 9%) local areas had AFP surveillance detection rates that were less than expected, and eighteen local areas (n=18/87, 21%) had rates that were greater than expected. However, based on available evidence, it is unlikely that these indicated previously unidentified, enterovirus clusters.

Conclusions

While Australia has regularly met the national AFP surveillance performance indicators, at the subnational level nine per cent of local areas demonstrated statistically significant lower AFP detection rates. All countries, even those with relatively small populations, should actively identify silent AFP areas to prompt surveillance improvements.

Acute flaccid paralysis surveillance performance from 2011 to 2020 in Jonglei State, South Sudan: progress and challenges encountered

INTRODUCTION

South Sudan reported the last indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) in 2001 in Unity State, while the country was part of Sudan. In addition, the country reported an imported case of WPV in 2004-2005 and 2008-2009. The WPV circulation in the state was interrupted in 2009 and the last case was reported in Ayod county. The country continues to be at risk of importation of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2). In 2014 and 2020 the country experienced an outbreak of cVDPV2, in which Jonglei state was one of the affected states. Four out of 50 (8%) cVDPV2 cases in 2020 were reported from Jonglei State. The purpose of this study is to review surveillance performance indicators of Jonglei and compare them with the WHO surveillance performance standard and other country´s surveillance performances.

METHODS

retrospective secondary data analysis was conducted using the Jonglei state Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance case-based database from 2011 to 2020. The reason for selecting Jonglei is because it is one of the poor performing states and is chronically hit by flood and internal conflicts. Data analyses were carried out using the Microsoft Excel (2016) program, where descriptive analysis frequencies, tables, and graphs were generated.

RESULTS

the study revealed that 346 AFP cases were reported in the counties of Jonglei state from 2011 through 2020. Out of 11 counties, 11 (100%) of them have reported suspected AFP cases. Children under five years accounted for 275 (79%) of all cases. The male gender accounted for 175 (51%) of all cases. A total of 249 (72%) had received three or more doses of Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV). Non-Polio Acute Flaccid Paralysis (NPAFP) rate varies from 1.2 in 2014 to 4.4 cases per 100,000 children under 15 years in 2018. The stool adequacy ranges from 58% in 2020 to 100% in 2011.

CONCLUSION

the performance of Jonglei´s AFP surveillance system did not meet the WHO recommended target for both major AFP surveillance indicators (non-polio AFP rate and stool adequacy) during the study period.

Contribution of Auto-Visual AFP Detection and Reporting (AVADAR) on polio surveillance in South Sudan

Introduction

the last wild polio virus in South Sudan was documented in 2009. Nonetheless, it was one of the last four countries in the WHO African region to be accepted as a polio-free country in June 2020. In line with this, to accelerate the polio-free documentation process, the country has piloted Auto Visual AFP Detection and Reporting (AVADAR) in three counties. This study examined the contribution of the AVADAR surveillance system to the traditional Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance system to document lessons learnt and best practices.

Methods

we performed a retrospective descriptive quantitative study design to analyze secondary AVADAR surveillance data collected from June 2018 to December 2019 and stored at the WHO AVADAR server.

Results

the AVADAR community surveillance system has improved the two main AFP surveillance indicators in the piloted counties and made up 86% of the total number of true AFP cases detected in these counties. The completeness and timeliness of weekly zero reporting were 97% and 94%, respectively and maintained above the standard throughout the study, while the two main surveillance indicators in the project area were improved progressively except for the Gogrial West County. In contrast, main surveillance indicators declined in some of the none-AVADAR implementing counties.

Conclusion

the AVADAR surveillance system can overcome the logistical and remoteness barriers that can hinder the early detection and reporting of cases due to insecurity, topographical, and communication barrier in rural and hard-to-reach areas to accomplish and sustain the two main surveillance indicators, along with the completeness and timeliness of weekly zero reporting. We recommend extending this application-based surveillance system to other areas with limited resources and similar challenges by incorporating other diseases of public health concern.