Temporal patterns of weekly births and conceptions predicted by meteorology, seasonal variation, and lunar phases

Background

Data reporting the number of births given by women resident in Vienna for each week between 1999 and 2019, and the duration (in weeks) of their pregnancies, were used to estimate the week of conception. When preliminary examinations detected cyclical patterns for births and conceptions, a series of Poisson regressions for births and conceptions were performed to assess whether these cycles could be associated with lunar or solar phases.

Methods

To that end 2 sine-cosine functions, 1 with a wavelength of 1 year (365.25 days) and 1 with a wavelength of 29.529 days, the latter resembling the average length of a lunar cycle, were constructed. In addition, also average weekly temperatures were included in the models.

Results

Same week temperature was a strong non-linear predictor for both births and conceptions. Extreme temperatures, especially hot temperatures, increased the number of births while the numbers of successful conceptions were decreased by extreme temperatures. Regarding annual variation in conceptions, the lowest values were found in May and the highest in late autumn and early winter. Therefore, the highest numbers of births are observed in the summer. As per lunar variations, the highest numbers of conceptions occurred at the full moon and the highest numbers of births at the waxing crescent to first quarter moon.

Discussion

The latter results should be treated with caution, as they are not hypothesis driven. Furthermore, literature reports on this topic are conflicting. Nevertheless, these findings will be useful in further analyses examining air pollution effects.