Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life-history evolution, where correlations among parameters can inform our understanding of life-history trade-offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, and shed light on evolutionary ecology. The most common approaches rely on the multivariate normal distribution, and its conjugate inverse Wishart prior distribution. However, the inverse Wishart prior for the covariance matrix of multivariate normal distributions has a strong influence on posterior distributions. As an alternative to the inverse Wishart distribution, we individually parameterize the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution to accurately estimate variances (σ 2) of, and process correlations (ρ) between, demographic parameters. We evaluate this approach using simulated capture-mark-recapture data. We then use this method to examine process correlations between adult and juvenile survival of black brent geese marked on the Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska (1988-2014). Our parameterization consistently outperformed the conjugate inverse Wishart prior for simulated data, where the means of posterior distributions estimated using an inverse Wishart prior were substantially different from the values used to simulate the data. Brent adult and juvenile annual apparent survival rates were strongly positively correlated (ρ = 0.563, 95% CRI 0.181-0.823), suggesting that habitat conditions have significant effects on both adult and juvenile survival. We provide robust simulation tools, and our methods can readily be expanded for use in other capture-recapture or capture-recovery frameworks. Further, our work reveals limits on the utility of these approaches when study duration or sample sizes are small.

Ultimate regulation of fecundity in species with precocial young: declining marginal value of offspring with increasing brood size does not explain maximal clutch size in Black Brent geese

Lack 18:125-128 (1967) proposed that clutch size in precocial species was regulated by nutrients available to females during breeding. Drent and Daan 68:225-252 (1980) proposed the individual optimization hypothesis, whereby individual state determines the optimal combination of breeding date and clutch size. Neither hypothesis accounts for variation in nutrients among females at the end of egg laying, strong right truncations in clutch size distributions, or the fact that many species with precocial young are determinate layers. One solution is that there is a maximum clutch size, above which the number of fledged young declines. We manipulated brood size in Black Brent geese to decouple brood size from maternal quality and produce broods larger than the natural maximum. We recaptured marked goslings to assess variation in prefledging survival as a function of brood size and we estimated relative prefledging survival of goslings using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. We considered effects of natural clutch size, brood size and their interaction on probability that we captured goslings at about 4 weeks of age. Prefledging survival declined with increasing brood size ([Formula: see text] = -0.53; 95% CI -0.91 to -0.16), while laid clutch size had little influence on prefledging survival ([Formula: see text] = -0.04; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.32). Despite declining per capita survival with increasing brood size, the most productive brood size was six goslings, which is greater than the typical maximum clutch size of five. Thus, reduced survival in large broods, by itself, is not the sole mechanism that limits maximum clutch size. We suggest elsewhere that incubation limitation and lower residual reproductive value for females tending larger broods may be other mechanisms limiting maximal clutch size in brent.

Helminth community structure in two species of arctic-breeding waterfowl

Climate change is occurring rapidly at high latitudes, and subsequent changes in parasite communities may have implications for hosts including wildlife and humans. Waterfowl, in particular, harbor numerous parasites and may facilitate parasite movement across broad geographic areas due to migratory movements. However, little is known about helminth community structure of waterfowl at northern latitudes. We investigated the helminth communities of two avian herbivores that breed at high latitudes, Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans), and greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons), to examine effects of species, geographic area, age, and sex on helminth species richness, aggregation, prevalence, and intensity. We collected 83 and 58 black brant and white-fronted geese, respectively, from Arctic and Subarctic Alaska July–August 2014. We identified 10 known helminth species (Amidostomum anseris, Amidostomum spatulatum, Drepanidotaenia lanceolata, Epomidiostomum crami, Heterakis dispar, Notocotylus attenuatus, Tetrameres striata, Trichostrongylus tenuis, Tschertkovilepis setigera, and Wardoides nyrocae) and 1 previously undescribed trematode. All geese sampled were infected with at least one helminth species. All helminth species identified were present in both age classes and species, providing evidence of transmission at high latitudes and suggesting broad host susceptibility. Also, all but one helminth species were present at both sites, suggesting conditions are suitable for transmission across a large latitudinal/environmental gradient. Our study provides important baseline information on avian parasites that can be used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on host-parasite distributions.

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We collected two goose species in two high-latitude locations to quantify helminths.

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We identified 10 helminths and 1 previously unidentified trematode in two hosts.

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Waterfowl helminths are readily transmitted in the Arctic and Subarctic.

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Arctic-breeding geese have high helminth prevalence rates and infection intensities.

Long-term research and hierarchical models reveal consistent fitness costs of being the last egg in a clutch

Maintenance of phenotypic heterogeneity in the face of strong selection is an important component of evolutionary ecology, as are the consequences of such heterogeneity. Organisms may experience diminishing returns of increased reproductive allocation as clutch or litter size increases, affecting current and residual reproductive success. Given existing uncertainty regarding trade‐offs between the quantity and quality of offspring, we sought to examine the potential for diminishing returns on increased reproductive allocation in a long‐lived species of goose, with a particular emphasis on the effect of position in the laying sequence on offspring quality.

To better understand the effects of maternal allocation on offspring survival and growth, we estimated the effects of egg size, timing of breeding, inter‐ and intra‐annual variation, and position in the laying sequence on gosling survival and growth rates of black brant Branta bernicla nigricans breeding in western Alaska from 1987 to 2007.

We found that gosling growth rates and survival decreased with position in the laying sequence, regardless of clutch size. Mean egg volume of the clutch a gosling originated from had a positive effect on gosling survival (β = 0.095, 95% CRI: 0.024, 0.165) and gosling growth rates (β = 0.626, 95% CRI: 0.469, 0.738). Gosling survival (β = −0.146, 95% CRI: −0.214, −0.079) and growth rates (β = −1.286, 95% CRI: −1.435, −1.132) were negatively related to hatching date.

These findings indicate substantial heterogeneity in offspring quality associated with their position in the laying sequence. They also potentially suggest a trade‐off mechanism for females whose total reproductive investment is governed by pre‐breeding state.

Blood selenium concentrations in female Pacific black brant molting in Arctic Alaska: Relationships with age and habitat salinity

Blood samples collected from 81 female Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska, were analyzed for selenium concentration. The concentration of selenium in blood of after second year (hatched two or more years ago) females (0.84μg/g wet weight) was significantly greater than the concentration in second year (hatched the previous year) females (0.61μg/g wet weight). The concentrations of selenium we found in blood of black brant were 1.5 to 2 times greater than baseline values typical of freshwater birds, but considerably lower than reported in other marine waterfowl sampled in Alaska. This finding may be attributable in part to the nearly exclusive herbivorous diet of black brant. No relationship was noted between blood selenium concentration and molting habitat salinity. We are unaware of any previous reports of blood selenium concentrations in black brant.