Impacts of climate change on cassava yield and lifecycle energy and greenhouse gas performance of cassava ethanol systems: An example from Guangxi Province, China

Significant shock of climate change on crop yield will challenge the performance of bio-crop on substituting fossil energy to mitigate climate change. Taking cassava-to-ethanol system in Guangxi Province of South China as an example, we coupled a random forest (RF) model with 10 Global climate models (GCMs) outputs to predict the future cassava yields. Subsequently, the net energy value (NEV) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the cassava-to-ethanol system across varied topographies are assessed using a life cycle analysis. We demonstrate that the abrupt increases in temperatures are the primary contributors to declining yields. Notably, cassava yields in hilly regions decline more than those in plains and display greater variability among concentration pathway scenarios over time. Future NEV and GHG performance of cassava-to-ethanol will undergo significant decreases over time, especially within the high concentration pathway scenario (NEV decrease 28%, GHG increase 3.4% from 2006 to 2100). The performance reductions in hilly area are exacerbated by more harvest loss and labor and material inputs during the "field-to-wheel", negating its energy advantage over fossil fuels. Therefore, adopting a lower concentration pathway and favoring plantation in plains could maintain cassava-to-ethanol as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Our research also advances the methodological approach to climate change adaptation within the domain of life cycle assessment.

Salinity change induces distinct climate feedbacks of nitrogen removal in saline lakes

Current estimations of nitrogen biogeochemical cycling and N2O emissions in global lakes as well as predictions of their future changes are overrepresented by freshwater datasets, while less consideration is given to widespread saline lakes with different salinity (representing salinization or desalinization). Here, we show that N2O production by denitrification is the main process of reactive nitrogen (Nr, the general abbreviations of NH4+-N, NO2--N and NO3--N) removal in hypersaline lake sediments (e.g. Lake Chaka). The integration of our field measurements and literature data shows that in response to natural salinity decrease, potential Nr removal increases while N2O production decreases. Furthermore, denitrification-induced N2 production exhibits higher salinity sensitivity than denitrification-induced N2O production, suggesting that the contribution of N2O to Nr removal decreases with decreasing salinity. This field-investigation-based salinity response model of Nr removal indicates that under global climate change, saline lakes in the process of salinization or desalination may have distinct Nr removal and climate feedback effects: salinized lakes tend to generate a positive climate feedback, while desalinated lakes show a negative feedback. Therefore, salinity change should be considered as an important factor in assessing future trend of N2O emissions from lakes under climate change.

Can plastics affect near surface layer ocean processes and climate?

Plastics in the ocean are of great concern nowadays, and are often referred to as the apocalyptic twin of climate change in terms of public fear and the problems they pose to the aquatic and terrestrial environment. The number of studies focusing on the ecological effects and toxicity of plastics has substantially increased in the last few years. Considering the current trends in the anthropogenic activities, the amount of plastics entering the world oceans is increasing exponentially, but the oceans have a low assimilative capacity for plastics and the near-surface layer of it is a finite space. If loading of the oceans with plastics continues at the current rate, the thin sea surface microlayer can have a substantial amount of plastics comparable to the distribution of phytoplankton, at least in the major oceanic gyres and coastal waters in the future. Also, processes like biofouling can cluster microplastics in dense fields in the near-surface layer. Plastics can contribute to the warming or cooling of the water column by scattering and attenuating incoming solar radiation, leading to a potential change in the optical and other physico-chemical properties of the water column. We propose a new notion that changes in solar radiation in the water column due to the plastics have the potential to affect the physical processes in the ocean surface and near-surface layers, and can induce climate feedback cycles. The future can be very different, if plastics evolve as one of the key players affecting the ocean physical processes and hence this is the time to tackle this puzzle with appropriate strategies or let the genie out of the bottle.

Understanding Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity Using Observations of Earth's Energy Budget

While climate models and observations generally agree that climate feedbacks collectively amplify the surface temperature response to radiative forcing, the strength of the feedback estimates varies greatly, resulting in appreciable uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity. Because climate feedbacks respond differently to different spatial variations in temperature, short-term observational records have thus far only provided a weak constraint for climate feedbacks operating under global warming. Further complicating matters is the likelihood of considerable time variation in the effective global climate feedback parameter under transient warming. There is a need to continue to revisit the underlying assumptions used in the traditional forcing-feedback framework, with an emphasis on how climate models and observations can best be utilized to reduce the uncertainties. Model simulations can also guide observational requirements and provide insight on how the observational record can most effectively be analyzed in order to make progress in this critical area of climate research.