The consequences of debris flows in Brazil: a historical analysis based on recorded events in the last 100 years

This study aims at providing an overview of the socioeconomic consequences that debris-flow events have caused in Brazil, positioning the country in the international scenario and identifying areas where targeted actions are necessary. The analysis is conducted by calculating the debris-flow mortality rate (MR) and by using the so-called F-N plots (frequency of events that have caused N or more fatalities vs. the number of fatalities), based on a compilation of debris-flow-related disasters from 1920 to 2021. In total, 45 debris-flow events were documented in the considered period, responsible for 5771 fatalities and more than 5.5 billion USD in economic losses. The Serra do Mar Mountain Range is the main site of reported debris-flow occurrences (64.5%), followed by Serra da Mantiqueira (13.3%), and Serra Geral (13.3%). Southeast Brazil (SEB) is the region most affected by debris-flow events, due to the highest population density and the development of several cities in hilly areas, such as Petrópolis (Rio de Janeiro state) and Cubatão (São Paulo state). The debris-flow MR of SEB is higher than any other region in Brazil, pushing the national debris-flow MR upwards, and the F-N curve of SEB consolidates the region as the one with the highest risk to the phenomenon, indicating a higher probability of fatal events. The F-N plots further show that debris-flow events in Brazil represent a higher societal risk than in countries such as China, Japan and Italy. While there are differences in country size and the scale effect should be considered, these results highlight the urgent need for investments in disaster prevention and preparedness programs.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10346-022-01984-7.

Alluvial fans at Cala Gonone (Sardinia), a fast developing touristic village: origins, hazards and potential risks

The study area of Cala Gonone in NE Sardinia (Italy) consists of a wide terraced re-entrance/valley crowned inland by carbonate hills and, near the coast bounded laterally and partly floored by thin basaltic lava lying over carbonate bedrock. In this re-entrance, several inland alluvial fans (500 m length by 700 m wide) have developed, and a local ~ 30 m high, about 10 m wide (thick), 400 m long scarp body-remnant of semi-consolidated alluvial fan deposits is exposed along the coast. The fans experience depositional events mostly developed during the late Pleistocene. They although nowadays dormant may be reactivated by major rainstorms during strong climate changes. In these last few decades, the touristic village of Cala Gonone has been rapidly expanding over the mid to lower parts of two coalescing alluvial fans (Stadium and Gustui) and along the coastal marine scarp edge (Palmasera alluvial fan system). The village thus may become exposed to natural hazards if extreme climatic conditions may re-occur. Moreover, rock falls and the instability of the costal scarp due to wave erosion may add addition hazards for habitations built near the scarp crest and visitors to the frontal replenished beach. As commonly occurring elsewhere since antiquity, the risk perception of such events is low because of the centennial, millennial of longer recurrence. Such perception does not negate the hazards but a long event recurrence may be accepted as a reasonable risk for the human's activity. Nevertheless, serious consideration should be given to potential problems and plan and build for amelioration and defense. The evidence of what environmentally did and could still happen in the Cala Gonone and similar other area is in part clearly imprinted on the landscape: geology, geomorphology, and relative details in the stratigraphy and sedimentology of the deposits.

Defining evacuation travel times and safety areas in a debris flow hazard scenario

Debris flows are one of the most hazardous types of landslides in mountain regions. In the upper part of the Zêzere valley (Serra da Estrela, Portugal) several debris flows events occurred in the last 200 years, some of them causing loss of lives and material damages. In this work, a methodology for pedestrian evacuation modelling, in a debris flow hazard scenario, was implemented. A dynamic run-out model, developed in previous studies, was used to evaluate the debris flows velocities, thickness of the deposits and extent of the mobilized material. The buildings potentially affected by the impact of debris flows were identified and the potentially exposed population was estimated by applying a dasymetric distribution. The results lead to the conclusion that, in the study area, the elderly are those who are most exposed to debris flows. Furthermore, the time lapse between the debris flows initiation and the arrival at the buildings at risk was estimated, allowing to account for the overall number of buildings where the evacuation time takes longer than the debris flows arrival. Additionally, the safe areas within the study area were identified, and several safe public buildings with the capacity to gather a large number of persons were selected. Considering that the study area is located in a mountain region, characterized by steep slopes, the evacuation modelling was performed based on an anisotropic approach, in order to consider the influence of slope direction on travel costs. At the end, three pedestrian evacuation travel time scenarios, based on different walking speeds to accommodate residents with different ages in safer places, were compared and the results mapped. The implemented methodology is not local dependent, which allows its reproduction elsewhere.

Trigger characteristics of torrential flows from high to low alpine regions in Austria

Torrential processes like fluvial flows (flash floods with or without intensive sediment transport) and debris flows can represent a threat to people and infrastructure in alpine domains. Up to now the hydro-meteorological trigger conditions and their connection with geomorphic watershed characteristics that favor the initiation of either process are largely unknown. Based on modeled wetness states we determined the trigger types (long-lasting rainfall (LLR), short-duration storm (SDS) and intense snow melt (SM)) of 360 observed debris flow and fluvial flood events in six climatically and geomorphologically contrasting watersheds in Austria. Results show that the watershed wetness states play very distinct roles for triggering torrential events across the study regions. Hydro-meteorological variables have little power to explain the occurrence of fluvial flows and debris flows in these regions. Nevertheless, trigger type separation highlighted some geomorphic influences. For example, intense SM triggered more events in sub-watersheds (torrential watersheds in the study region) that are characterized by significantly higher Melton ruggedness numbers than LLR does. In addition, the data show that events triggered by LLRs occur in sub-watersheds of similar exposures (aspects) other than SDS. The results suggest that the consideration of different trigger types provides valuable information for engineering risk assessment.

Tree ring-based chronology of hydro-geomorphic processes as a fundament for identification of hydro-meteorological triggers in the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains (Central Europe)

Hydro-geomorphic processes have significantly influenced the recent development of valley floors, river banks and depositional forms in mountain environments, have caused considerable damage to manmade developments and have disrupted forest management. Trees growing along streams are affected by the transported debris mass and provide valuable records of debris flow/flood histories in their tree-ring series. Dendrogeomorphic approaches are currently the most accurate methods for creating a chronology of the debris flow/flood events in forested catchments without any field-monitoring or a stream-gauging station. Comprehensive studies focusing on the detailed chronology of hydro-geomorphic events and analysis of meteorological triggers and weather circulation patterns are still lacking for the studied area. We provide a spatio-temporal reconstruction of hydro-geomorphic events in four catchments of the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains, Czech Republic, with an analysis of their triggering factors using meteorological data from four nearby rain gauges. Increment cores from 794 coniferous trees (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) allowed the identification of 40 hydro-geomorphic events during the period of 1889-2013. Most of the events can be explained by extreme daily rainfalls (≥50mm) occurring in at least one rain gauge. However, in several cases, there was no record of extreme precipitation at rain gauges during the debris flow/flood event year, suggesting extremely localised rainstorms at the mountain summits. We concluded that the localisation, intensity and duration of rainstorms; antecedent moisture conditions; and amount of available sediments all influenced the initiation, spatial distribution and characteristics of hydro-geomorphic events. The most frequent synoptic situations responsible for the extreme rainfalls (1946-2015) were related to the meridional atmospheric circulation pattern. Our results enhance current knowledge of the occurrences and triggers of debris flows/floods in the Central European mountains in transition between temperate oceanic and continental climatic conditions and may prompt further research of these phenomena in the Eastern Sudetes in general.

Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps

This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region.