A data-driven microstructure-based model for predicting circumferential behavior and failure in degenerated human annulus fibrosus

The degeneration of the intervertebral disc annulus fibrosus poses significant challenges in understanding and predicting its mechanical behavior. In this article, we present a novel approach, enriched with detailed insights into microstructure and degeneration progression, to accurately predict the mechanics of the degenerated human annulus. Central to this framework is a fully three-dimensional continuum-based model that integrates hydration state and multiscale structural features, including proteoglycan macromolecules and interpenetrating collagen fibrillar networks across various hierarchical levels within the multi-layered lamellar/inter-lamellar soft tissue, capable of sustaining deformation-induced damage. To ensure accurate and comprehensive predictions of the degenerated annulus mechanical behavior, we establish a data-driven correlation between disc degeneration grade and individual age, which influences the composition and mechanical integrity of annulus constituents while accounting for regional variations. The methodology includes a thorough identification of age- and grade-related evolutions of model inputs, followed by a detailed quantitative evaluation of the model predictive capabilities, with a focus on circumferential behavior and failure. The model successfully replicates experimental data, accurately capturing stiffness, transverse response (Poisson's ratio), and ultimate properties across different annulus regions, while also accommodating the modulation of the age/grade relationship. The reduction rates between normal and severe degeneration align reasonably well with experimental data, with the inner region exhibiting the largest decrease in stiffness (34.63 %) and no significant change observed in the outer region. Failure stress drops considerably in both regions (49.86 % in the inner and 45.33 % in the outer), while failure strain decreases by 36.39 % in the outer and 24.74 % in the inner. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly enhances the predictive accuracy of annulus mechanics across a spectrum of degeneration levels, from normal to severely degenerated states. This approach promises improved predictive accuracy, deeper insights into disc health and injury risk, and a robust foundation for further research on the impact of degeneration on disc integrity. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Understanding and predicting the mechanical behavior of degenerated human annulus fibrosus remains a significant challenge due to the complex interplay of structural, biochemical, and age-related factors. This study presents a microstructure-based approach to address this challenge by integrating hydration state, detailed structural features across hierarchical scales, and deformation-induced damage and failure, alongside age-related changes and degeneration grade factors. This approach enables accurate simulations of annulus mechanics across regions, with model results thoroughly compared to available data, reinforcing its applicability in capturing degeneration effects. By capturing the intricate interactions between microstructure and mechanical behavior in degenerated discs, the model lays a strong foundation for improving clinical assessments and guiding future treatment strategies for disc-related conditions.