The use of an integrated framework combining eco-evolutionary data and species distribution models to predict range shifts of species under changing climates

Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools that can predict potential distributions of species under climate change. However, traditional SDMs that rely on current species occurrences may underestimate their climatic tolerances and potential distributions. To address this limitation, we developed an integrated framework that incorporates eco-evolutionary data into SDMs. In our approach, the fundamental niches of species are constructed by their realized niches in different periods, and those fundamental niches are used to predict potential distributions of species. Our framework includes multiple phylogenetic analyses, such as niche evolution rate estimation and ancestral area reconstruction. These analyses provide deeper insights into the responses of species to climate change. We applied our approach to the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex to evaluate its efficacy through comprehensive performance evaluations and validation tests. Our framework can be applied broadly to species with available phylogenetic data and occurrence records, making it a valuable tool for understanding species adaptation in a rapidly changing world.•Integrating the niches of species in different periods estimates more complete climatic envelopes for them.•Combining eco-evolutionary data with SDMs predicts more comprehensive potential distributions of species under climate change.•Our framework provides a general procedure for species with phylogenetic data and occurrence records.

Incorporating eco-evolutionary information into species distribution models provides comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change

As climate changes increasingly influence species distributions, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity, the urgency to understand how species' ranges shift under those changes is great. Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital approaches that can predict species distributions under changing climates. However, SDMs based on the species' current occurrences may underestimate the species' climatic tolerances. Integrating species' realized niches at different periods, also known as multi-temporal calibration, can provide an estimation closer to its fundamental niche. Based on this, we further proposed an integrated framework that combines eco-evolutionary data and SDMs (phylogenetically-informed SDMs) to provide comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change. To evaluate our approach's performance, we applied it to a group of related species, the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex (Anthemidae, Asteracee). First, we investigated the niche differentiation between species and intraspecific lineages of the complex and estimated their rates of niche evolution. Next, using both standard SDMs and our phylogenetically-informed SDMs, we generated predictions of suitability areas for all species and lineages and compared the results. Finally, we reconstructed the historical range dynamics for the species of this complex. Our results showed that the species and intraspecific lineages of the complex had varying degrees of niche differentiation and different rates of niche evolution. Lineage-level SDMs can provide more realistic predictions for species with intraspecific differentiation than species-level models can. The phylogenetically-informed SDMs provided more complete environmental envelopes and predicted broader potential distributions for all species than the standard SDMs did. Range dynamics varied among the species that have different rates of niche evolution. Our framework integrating eco-evolutionary data and SDMs contributes to a better understanding of the species' responses to climate change and can help to make more targeted conservation efforts for the target species under climate change, particularly for rare species.

Climate change projections for Carpathian soda pans on the basis of photosynthesis evidence from typical diatom species

The Carpathian Basin is home to a number of astatic soda pans which are especially vulnerable to the climate change due to their high degree of hydrological sensitivity. The photosynthetic plasticity of the three most dominant benthic diatom species (Nitzschia aurariae, N. reskovii, N. supralitorea) in a number of soda pans was measured, along with sulphate and chloride ion content; conductivity and temperature gradients were also recorded. On the basis of the maximal photosynthetic activity (P_s), climate models were employed to observe and predict the effects of climate change on photosynthesis over three time-spans: past (1970-2000), recent past (2005-2015) and projected future (2041-2060). Comparing the periods, it becomes apparent that climate change has a significant effect on photosynthesis and the photosynthetically active period of the Nitzschia species, the dominant primary producers in soda pans, by enhancing their photosynthetic activity and extending their vegetation period by two months. Due to the breadth of their ecological niche, the competitive advantages of the diatom species studied in the course of this research as against others are expected to prevail under the conditions predicted by the climate scenario presented here.

Fundamental niche unfilling and potential invasion risk of the slider turtle Trachemys scripta

Background

How species colonize new environments is still a fundamental question in ecology and evolution, assessable by evaluating range characteristics of invasive species. Here we propose a model approach to evaluate environmental conditions and species features to predict niche changes in non-equilibrium contexts. It incorporates potentially range-limiting processes (fundamental niche), hence allowing for better predictions of range shifts, differentiation of analog and non-analog conditions between the native and non-native (invaded) ranges, and identification of environmental conditions not currently available but likely in the future. We apply our approach with the worldwide invasive slider-turtle Trachemys scripta.

Methods

We estimated the native and non-native realized niches of T. scripta and built its fundamental niche based on key features of the turtle’s temperature physiological tolerance limits and survival-associated factors. We next estimated response functions adjusted to the physiological predictor variables and estimated habitat suitability values, followed by a comprehensive set of analyses and simulations to compare the environmental conditions occupied by T. scripta (at its native and non-native ranges).

Results

Climatic space analysis showed that the T. scripta’s non-native realized niche is 28.6% greater than the native one. Response curves showed that it does not use its entire range of temperature tolerances (density curves for native: 5.3–23.7 °C and non-native: 1.7–28.4 °C ranges). Whether considering the mean temperature of the warmest or the coldest quarter, it occupies a wider range of temperatures along its non-native distribution. Results of the response curves for worldwide (global) and across Mexico (regional) comparisons showed it occupies analog and non-analog conditions between its native and invaded ranges, exhibiting also unoccupied suitable climatic conditions.

Discussion

We demonstrate that T. scripta occupies a wider subset of its fundamental niche along its non-native range (within its physiological tolerances), revealing that the species observed niche shift corresponds to a different subset of its fundamental niche (niche unfilling). We also identified suitable environmental conditions, globally and regionally, where the slider turtle could potentially invade. Our approach allows to accurately predict niche changes in novel or non-equilibrium contexts, which can improve our understanding about ecological aspects and geographic range boundaries in current and potential invasions.

Water beetle tolerance to salinity and anionic composition and its relationship to habitat occupancy

Water salinity and ionic composition are among the main environmental variables that constrain the fundamental niches of aquatic species, and accordingly, physiological tolerance to these factors constitutes a crucial part of the evolution, ecology, and biogeography of these organisms. The present study experimentally estimated the fundamental saline and anionic niches of adults of two pairs of congeneric saline beetle species that differ in habitat preference (lotic and lentic) in order to test the habitat constraint hypothesis. Osmotic and anionic realised niches were also estimated based on the field occurrences of adult beetle species using Outlying Mean Index analysis and their relationship with experimental tolerances. In the laboratory, all of the studied species showed a threshold response to increased salinity, displaying high survival times when exposed to low and intermediate conductivity levels. These results suggest that these species are not strictly halophilic, but that they are able to regulate both hyperosmotically and hypoosmotically. Anionic water composition had a significant effect on salinity tolerance at conductivity levels near their upper tolerance limits, with decreased species survival at elevated sulphate concentrations. Species occupying lentic habitats demonstrated higher salinity tolerance than their lotic congeners in agreement with the habitat constraint hypothesis. As expected, realised salinity niches were narrower than fundamental niches and corresponded to conditions near the upper tolerance limits of the species. These species are uncommon on freshwater-low conductivity habitats despite the fact that these conditions might be physiologically suitable for the adult life stage. Other factors, such as biotic interactions, could prevent their establishment at low salinities. Differences in the realised anionic niches of congeneric species could be partially explained by the varying habitat availability in the study area. Combining the experimental estimation of fundamental niches with realised field data niche estimates is a powerful method for understanding the main factors constraining species' distribution at multiple scales, which is a key issue when predicting species' ability to cope with global change.