A global-level assessment of the effectiveness of protected areas at resisting anthropogenic pressures

One-sixth of the global terrestrial surface now falls within protected areas (PAs), making it essential to understand how far they mitigate the increasing pressures on nature which characterize the Anthropocene. In by far the largest analysis of this question to date and not restricted to forested PAs, we compiled data from 12,315 PAs across 152 countries to investigate their ability to reduce human pressure and how this varies with socioeconomic and management circumstances. While many PAs show positive outcomes, strikingly we find that compared with matched unprotected areas, PAs have on average not reduced a compound index of pressure change over the past 15 y. Moreover, in tropical regions average pressure change from cropland conversion has increased inside PAs even more than in matched unprotected areas. However, our results also confirm previous studies restricted to forest PAs, where pressures are increasing, but less than in counterfactual areas. Our results also show that countries with high national-level development scores have experienced lower rates of pressure increase over the past 15 y within their PAs compared with a matched outside area. Our results caution against the rapid establishment of new PAs without simultaneously addressing the conditions needed to enable their success.

The Relationship Between Obesity, Overweight, and the Human Development Index in World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region Countries

OBJECTIVES

Obesity is regarded as one of the most prominent health threats worldwide and a serious risk factor for non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes mellitus type 2, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and some types of cancer. Given the role that societal development-as reflected by the Human Development Index (HDI)-may play in the prevalence of obesity and overweight, this study aimed to investigate the degree to which the prevalence of obesity and overweight is affected by HDI and its components.

METHODS

In this ecological study, the required data on HDI and its components were gathered from the latest report of the United Nations Development Program, and data on obesity and overweight were acquired from the latest reports published on the World Health Organization website. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS version 24.0.

RESULTS

The prevalence of obesity was determined to be significantly higher among females than males, and the gross national index per capita was found to be significantly higher for males than females (p<0.05). Significant positive correlations were found between HDI and its components and sex, as well as indices of obesity and overweight.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant positive correlation exists between HDI and obesity. As policy-makers attempt to improve the general welfare of the people, they should be aware of potential unwanted effects of development on the risk of obesity and overweight among the population.

Worldwide trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with predictions for the next 15 years

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is 1 of the most common cancers in females worldwide. Understanding the most recent global patterns and temporal trends of cervical cancer burden might be helpful for its prevention and control.

METHODS

Data on cervical cancer (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code C53) incidence and mortality in 2018 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2018 database and further analyzed for their correlations with the Human Development Index. Temporal trends were analyzed using the annual percent change with joinpoint analysis among 31 countries with highly qualified data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus and World Health Organization mortality databases. Future trends for the next 15 years were predicted using an open-source age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates were both negatively correlated with the Human Development Index (r = -0.56 for incidence, r = -0.69 for mortality; P < .001) in cross-sectional analysis, and both remained stable in 12 countries or even decreased in 14 and 18 countries for incidence and mortality, respectively, during the most recent 10 data years. Similar findings were observed for the next 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical cancer burden was correlated with socioeconomic development. An overwhelming majority of countries had stable or decreasing trends in incidence and mortality rates, especially in those with effective cervical cancer screening programs and human papillomavirus vaccination.

LAY SUMMARY

The authors investigated the most up-to-date data from official databases released by the International Agency for Research on Cancer and found that cervical cancer incidence and mortality were negatively correlated with socioeconomic development. Among the 31 countries analyzed, most (26 countries were analyzed for incidence, and 30 were analyzed for mortality) had stable or even decreasing temporal trends over the most recent 10 years, especially in those with effective cervical cancer screening programs. In addition, the predicted trends for the next 15 years were basically consistent with the observed trends among most of the analyzed countries (19 countries for incidence and 26 countries for mortality).

Inflammatory bowel disease in an underdeveloped region of Northeastern Brazil

AIM: To evaluate the demographic characteristics and clinical phenotypes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in a geographic area in Northeastern Brazil.

METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted at the Hospital of the Federal University of Piauí in Northeastern Brazil. Demographic characteristics and clinical phenotypes of IBD were analyzed in relation to the time of diagnostic confirmation, which was defined as the date of disease onset. Data were collected between January 2011 and December 2012 and included all census patients 18 years of age or older during that period for whom there was diagnostic confirmation of Crohn’s disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC), or unclassified colitis according to the Montreal criteria. We also analyzed the period of time between the onset of clinical manifestations and the diagnosis of IBD (delay in the diagnosis). Statistical analyses included means and standard deviations for numeric variables and the Pearson χ² adherence test for nominal variables. The annual index occurrence and overall prevalence of IBD at our institution were also calculated, with P values < 0.05 indicating statistical significance. This study was approved by the Institutional Ethics and Research Committee.

RESULTS: A total of 252 patients with IBD were included, including 152 (60.3%) UC patients and 100 (39.7%) CD patients. The clinical and demographic characteristics of all patients with IBD showed a female to male ratio of 1.3:1.0 and a mean age of 35.2 (SD = 14.5) years. In addition, the majority of patients were miscegenated (171, 67.9%), had received higher education (157, 62.4%), lived in urban areas (217, 86.1%), and were under the age of 40 years (97, 62.5%). For patients with CD, according to the Montreal classification, the predominant features present from the onset of disease were an age between 17 and 40 years (A2); colonic disease location (L2); and nonstricturing, nonfistulizing disease behavior (B1). However, approximately one-quarter of all CD patients demonstrated perineal involvement. We also observed considerable delay in the diagnosis of IBD throughout the entire study period (mean = 35.5 mo). In addition, the annual index occurrence rose from 0.08 to 1.53 cases/10⁵ inhabitants/year during the study period, and the prevalence rate was 12.8 cases/10⁵ inhabitants in 2012. Over the last two decades, there was a noted increase in the frequency of IBD in the study area.

CONCLUSION: In this study, there was a predominance of patients with UC, young people under 40 years of age, individuals with racial miscegenation, and low annual incomes.

Cervical cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and Human Development Index: A population-based registry study

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in African women. We sought to estimate population-based survival and evaluate excess hazards for mortality in African women with cervical cancer, examining the effects of country-level Human Development Index (HDI), age and stage at diagnosis. We selected a random sample of 2760 incident cervical cancer cases, diagnosed in 2005 to 2015 from 13 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe) through the African Cancer Registry Network. Of these, 2735 were included for survival analyses. The 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival were estimated by registry, stage and country-level HDI. We used flexible Poisson regression models to estimate the excess hazards for death adjusting for age, stage and HDI. Among patients with known stage, 65.8% were diagnosed with Stage III-IV disease. The 5-year relative survival for Stage I-II cervical cancer in high HDI registry areas was 67.5% (42.1-83.6) while it was much lower (42.2% [30.6-53.2]) for low HDI registry areas. Independent predictors of mortality were Stage III-IV disease, medium to low country-level HDI and age >65 years at cervical cancer diagnosis. The average relative survival from cervix cancer in the 11 countries was 69.8%, 44.5% and 33.1% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. Factors contributing to the HDI (such as education and a country's financial resources) are critical for cervical cancer control in SSA and there is need to strengthen health systems with timely and appropriate prevention and treatment programmes.

The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer and its relationship with development in Asia

Purpose

Prostate cancer is a common cancer in men in the world. It is rapidly increasing. This study investigated the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer and the relationship with the Human Development Index (HDI) and its dimensions in Asia in 2012.

Methods

The study was conducted based on data from the world data of cancer and the World Bank (including the HDI and its components). The standardized incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer were calculated for Asian countries. The correlation between incidence, mortality rates, and the HDI and its components were assessed with the use of the correlation test, using SPSS software.

Results

There was a total of 191,054 incidences and 81,229 death were recorded in Asian countries in 2012. Among the Asian countries, the five countries with the highest standardized incidence rates of prostate cancer were Israel, Turkey, Lebanon, Singapore, and Japan, and the five countries with the highest standardized mortality rates were Turkey, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, Armenia, and the Philippines. The correlation between standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer and the HDI was 0.604 (P ≤ 0.001), with life expectancy at birth 0.529 (P = 0.002), with mean years of schooling 0.427 (P = 0.001), and with level of income per each person of the population 0.349 (P = 0.013). Also, between the standardized mortality rate and the HDI, it was 0.228 (P = 0.127).

Conclusions

A significant and positive correlation was observed between the standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer, and the HDI and its dimensions, such as life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, and income level of the population per each person of population. However, there was no significant correlation between the standardized mortality rate, and the HDI and its dimensions.

GLOBAL Leukemia in Children 0-14 Statistics 2018, Incidence and Mortality and Human Development Index (HDI): GLOBOCAN Sources and Methods

OBJECTIVE

Cancer is the second leading cause of death in children under 15 and leukemia is the most common type of cancer in this age group.  The aim of the present study is to investigate the incidence and mortality of leukemia in children aged 0-14 years and its relationship with Human Development Index (HDI in different countries of the world.  Methods: Incidence and mortality rates were obtained from GLOBOCAN and Country's income from World Bank. The data analysis was conducted using correlation analysis. The association of incidence and mortality rates with HDI was investigated using linear regression models.

RESULTS

The results revealed a significant positive correlation between the incidence rate and Gross National Income per capita (r = 0.464, P <0.0001), mean years of schooling (r = 0.566, P <0.0001), life expectancy at birth (r = 0.712, P <0.0001) and expected years of schooling (r = 0.604, P <0.0001). The results also demonstrated a positive and significant correlation between mortality rate and life expectancy at birth (r = 0.199, P <0.0001). An improvement in HDI [Beta = 7.7, CI95% (0.1, 15.3)] and life Expectancy at birth [Beta = 0.1, CI95% (0.03, 0.1)] caused a significantly rise in the incidence of leukemia. Moreover, the improved HDI [Beta = 6.2, CI95% (1.9, 10.5)] was associated with increased mean years of schooling [Beta = -0.1, CI95% (-0.2, -0.01)] and expected years of schooling [Beta = -0.1, CI95% (-0.3, -0.08).

CONCLUSION

As the HDI increases, incidence and mortality from of leukemia increases indicating a change in factors that affects leukemia incidences.

The incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer and their relationship with the Human Development Index in Asia

Background

The incidence and mortality estimates of ovarian cancer based on human development are essential for planning by policy makers. This study is aimed at investigating the standardised incidence rates (SIR) and standardised mortality rates (SMR) of ovarian cancer and their relationship with the Human Development Index (HDI) in Asian countries.

Methods

This study was an ecologic study in Asia for assessment of the correlation between SIR, age standardised rates (ASR), and HDI and their details, including life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, and gross national income (GNI) per capita. We used the correlation bivariate method for assessment of the correlation between ASR and HDI, and its details. Statistical significance was assumed if P < 0.05. All reported P-values were two-sided. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (Version 15.0, SPSS Inc.).

Results

The highest SIR of ovarian cancer was observed in Singapore, Kazakhstan, and Brunei respectively. Indonesia, Brunei, and Afghanistan had the highest SMR. There was a positive correlation between the HDI and SIR (r = 0.143, p = 0.006). Correlation between SMR of ovarian cancer and HDI was not significant (r = 0.005, p = 052.0).

Conclusion

According to the findings of this study, between the HDI and SIR, there was a positive correlation, but there was no correlation between the SMR and HDI.

Under-reporting of dietary energy intake in five populations of the African diaspora

Studies on the role of diet in the development of chronic diseases often rely on self-report surveys of dietary intake. Unfortunately, many validity studies have demonstrated that self-reported dietary intake is subject to systematic under-reporting, although the vast majority of such studies have been conducted in industrialised countries. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether or not systematic reporting error exists among the individuals of African ancestry (n 324) in five countries distributed across the Human Development Index (HDI) scale, a UN statistic devised to rank countries on non-income factors plus economic indicators. Using two 24 h dietary recalls to assess energy intake and the doubly labelled water method to assess total energy expenditure, we calculated the difference between these two values ((self-report - expenditure/expenditure) × 100) to identify under-reporting of habitual energy intake in selected communities in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the USA. Under-reporting of habitual energy intake was observed in all the five countries. The South African cohort exhibited the highest mean under-reporting ( - 52·1% of energy) compared with the cohorts of Ghana ( - 22·5%), Jamaica ( - 17·9%), Seychelles ( - 25·0%) and the USA ( - 18·5%). BMI was the most consistent predictor of under-reporting compared with other predictors. In conclusion, there is substantial under-reporting of dietary energy intake in populations across the whole range of the HDI, and this systematic reporting error increases according to the BMI of an individual.

Colorectal cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and Human Development Index: A population-based registry study

There are limited population-based survival data for colorectal cancer (CRC) in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, 1707 persons diagnosed with CRC from 2005 to 2015 were randomly selected from 13 population-based cancer registries operating in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Vital status was ascertained from medical charts or through next of kin. 1-, 3- and 5-year overall and relative survival rates for all registries and for each registry were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Multivariable analysis was used to examine the associations of 5-year relative survival with age at diagnosis, stage and country-level Human Development Index (HDI). Observed survival for 1448 patients with CRC across all registries combined was 72.0% (95% CI 69.5-74.4%) at 1 year, 50.4% (95% CI 47.6-53.2%) at 3 years and 43.5% (95% CI 40.6-46.3%) at 5 years. We estimate that relative survival at 5 years in these registry populations is 48.2%. Factors associated with poorer survival included living in a country with lower HDI, late stage at diagnosis and younger or older age at diagnosis (<50 or ≥70 years). For example, the risk of death was 1.6 (95% CI 1.2-2.1) times higher for patients residing in medium-HDI and 2.7 (95% CI 2.2-3.4) times higher for patients residing in low-HDI compared to those residing in high-HDI countries. Survival for CRC remains low in sub-Saharan African countries, though estimates vary considerably by HDI. Strengthening health systems to ensure access to prevention, early diagnosis and appropriate treatment is critical in improving outcomes of CRC in the region.

Global incidence and mortality rates in pancreatic cancer and the association with the Human Development Index: decomposition approach

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic cancer has a lower morbidity yet higher case fatality rates (CFRs) compared with other gastrointestinal cancers. The effects of socio-economic components on pancreatic cancer rates have been acknowledged; however, the effects of the Human Development Index (HDI) inequality are not. In this study, we aimed to determine the contribution of important socio-economic components on pancreatic cancer rates using a decomposition approach.

STUDY DESIGN

Global ecological study.

METHODS

Incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer were obtained for 172 countries from GLOBOCAN and the United Nations Development Program. The World Bank database was also used to obtain the HDI and its gradient for 169 countries. Inequality in pancreatic cancer age-specific incidence and mortality rates was calculated according to the HDI using the concentration index (CI). We decomposed the CI to determine main contributors of the inequality.

RESULTS

The CI for incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in both genders according to the HDI was 0.26 (95% confidence interval: 0.21-0.30) and 0.25 (95% confidence interval: 0.21-0.30), respectively, which indicated more concentrated inequality in advantaged countries. About 80% of the inequality sources were predicted by socio-economic component in both rates of pancreatic cancer. The main contributors to inequality were the mean years of schooling, life expectancy at birth, expected years of schooling, and urbanization.

CONCLUSION

Global inequalities exist in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality rates according to the HDI; in addition, inequality was more concentrated in countries with higher score of HDI.

Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics

We created a strategy for understanding the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the African continent. Because high-quality mobility data are challenging to obtain across Africa, the approach provides the ability to distinguish cases arising from within a country or from its neighbors. The results further show how testing capacity and social and health policy contribute to the dynamics of cases, and generate short-term prediction of the evolution of the pandemic on a country-by-country basis. This framework improves the ability to interpret and act upon real-time complex COVID-19 data from the African continent. These findings emphasize that regional efforts to coordinate country-specific strategies in transmission suppression should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the Human Development Index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One-week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

Globally temporal transitions of blood lead levels of preschool children across countries of different categories of Human Development Index

In the past decades, efforts to eliminate lead from gasoline, paint and drinking water around the world have substantially reduced human blood lead levels. This study was therefore aimed at examining the global temporal trends in the blood lead levels of preschool children by the category of UN Human Development Index (HDI). In total, 103 blood lead records were retrieved from 51 articles searched from PubMed and Google Scholar, with study subjects aged up to 8years old. Collected preschool children blood lead levels were plotted chronologically by HDI category and their reciprocals were used in regression analysis against calendar year to establish their temporal transition trends in the past decades. Results show that the modes of blood lead level of the preschool children were reduced from 4-6μg/dL to 0.8-1.5μg/dL, from 6-15μg/dL to 3-6μg/dL and from 12-16 to 5-6μg/dL for the very high HDI countries, the high HDI countries and the medium/low HDI countries, respectively. The highest correlation coefficient, 0.849, between the reciprocal of blood lead level and the calendar year was found for the very high HDI countries. Based on the regression lines, the predicted preschool children mean blood lead levels in the year of 2030 are 0.74μg/dL, 2.21μg/dL and 2.86μg/dL, respectively, for the very high HDI countries, the high HDI countries and the medium/low HDI countries. Persistent differences in blood lead level prevailed among countries of different HDI category, suggesting the effects of disparities and inequalities, at the state level, on preschool children blood lead levels. Further action is warranted to reduce the already low environmental lead exposure to eliminate the developmental burden of lead on children through (1) identification of individual local factors for lead exposure and (2) averting health disparity and inequalities at the state level.

Suicide rate in relation to the Human Development Index and other health related factors: A global ecological study from 91 countries

There has been no worldwide ecological study on suicide as a global major public health problem. This study aimed to identify the variations in suicide specific rates using the Human Development Index (HDI) and some health related variables among countries around the world. In this ecological study, we obtained the data from the World Bank Report 2013. The analysis was restricted to 91 countries for which both the epidemiologic data from the suicide rates and HDI were available. Overall, the global prevalence of suicide rate was 10.5 (95% confidence intervals: 8.8, 12.2) per 100,000 individuals, which significantly varied according to gender (16.3 in males vs. 4.6 in females, p < 0.001) and different levels of human development (11.64/100,000 individuals in very high development countries, 7.93/100,000 individuals in medium development countries, and 13.94/100,000 individuals in high development countries, p = 0.004). In conclusion, the suicide rate varies greatly between countries with different development levels. Our findings also suggest that male gender and HDI components are associated with an increased risk of suicide behaviors. Hence, detecting population subgroups with a high suicide risk and reducing the inequality of socioeconomic determinants are necessary to prevent this disorder around the world.

Do socioeconomic factors affect the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Iran?

BACKGROUND

A rising trend for incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been observed during the recent years in Iran. Several factors have been investigated as the reason, but socioeconomic determinants have been neglected. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between Human Development Index (HDI), income and education and MS prevalence in the provinces of Iran.

METHODS

The data used in this study were obtained from three sources: (a) National Registry of MS for MS prevalence data from 2006 to 2013, (b) Statistical Centre of Iran for demographic, income, and percentage of educated people data, and (c) some previous studies for HDI data.

RESULTS

The findings showed high prevalence of MS in the provinces of Iran. Most patients were residents of provinces with a higher socioeconomic level. Significant relationships were found between the prevalence of MS and HDI, income and educational level (P = .002, P = .006, and P = .001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic determinants in Iran are different from those in many other countries. It seems that Iranian provinces with a higher socioeconomic level have higher prevalence of MS. Further studies in smaller scale are needed to better understand the relationship between socioeconomic determinants and MS prevalence in the provinces of Iran.

Impact of national Human Development Index on liver cancer outcomes: Transition from 2008 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Liver cancer is the sixth most commonly diagnosed cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Socioeconomic development, indicated by the Human Development Index (HDI), is closely interconnected with public health. But the manner in which social development and medical advances influenced liver cancer patients in the past decade is still unknown.

AIM

To investigate the influence of HDI on clinical outcomes for patients with existing liver cancer from 2008 to 2018.

METHODS

The HDI values were obtained from the United Nations Development Programme, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database to calculate the mortality-to-incidence ratio, and the estimated 5-year net survival of patients with liver cancer was provided by the CONCORD-3 program. We then explored the association of mortality-to-incidence ratio and survival with HDI, with a focus on geographic variability across countries as well as temporal heterogeneity over the past decade.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2018, the epidemiology of liver cancer had changed across countries. Liver cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios were negatively correlated and showed good fit with a modified “dose-to-inhibition response” pattern with HDI (r = -0.548, P < 0.0001 for 2018; r = -0.617, P < 0.0001 for 2008). Cancer survival was positively associated with HDI (r = 0.408, P < 0.01) and negatively associated with mortality-to-incidence ratio (r = -0.346, P < 0.05), solidly confirming the interrelation among liver cancer outcome indicators and socioeconomic factors. Notably, in the past decade, the HDI values in most countries have increased alongside a decreasing tendency of liver cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios (P < 0.0001), and survival outcomes have simultaneously improved (P < 0.001), with significant disparities across countries.

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic factors have a significant influence on cancer outcomes. HDI values have increased along with improved cancer outcomes, with significant disparities among countries.

Exclusive Breastfeeding and Under-Five Mortality, 2006-2014: A Cross-National Analysis of 57 Low- and-Middle Income Countries

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the long-term, cross-national, and population-level impacts of exclusive breastfeeding on major global child health indicators. We investigated the overall and independent associations between exclusive breastfeeding and under-five mortality in 57 low- and-middle-income countries.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the latest World Health Organization, United Nations, and United Nations Children's Fund databases for 57 low- and middle-income countries covering the periods 2006-2014. Multivariate linear regression was used to estimate the effects of exclusive breastfeeding on under-five mortality after adjusting for differences in socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related factors.

RESULTS

In multivariate models, exclusive breastfeeding was independently associated with under-five mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic and health systems-related factors. A 10 percentage-points increase in exclusive breastfeeding was associated with a reduction of 5 child deaths per 1,000 live births. A one-unit increase in Human Development Index was associated with a decrease of 231 under-five child deaths per 1,000 live births. A $100 increase in per capita health care expenditure was associated with a decrease of 2 child deaths per 1,000 live births. One unit increase in physician density was associated with 2.8 units decrease in the under-five mortality rate.

CONCLUSIONS AND GLOBAL HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

Population-level health system and socioeconomic factors exert considerable effect on the association between exclusive breastfeeding and under-five mortality. Given that the health policy and socioeconomic indicators shown to influence exclusive breastfeeding and under-five mortality are modifiable, policy makers could potentially target specific policies and programs to address national-level deficiencies in these sectors to reduce under-five mortality in their countries.

Country-specific riverine contributions to marine plastic pollution

Marine plastic debris are mainly derived from land-based sources, and the transport of plastics via global rivers is of great concern. Ample efforts have been made in estimating the land-based contributions of plastic to the global oceans, but quantifying country-specific (and per capita) riverine outflows is an important step toward the development of a globally integrated framework to mitigate marine plastic pollution. To estimate the country-specific riverine contributions to global marine plastic pollution, we built a River-to-Ocean model framework. In 2016, the median annual country-specific riverine plastic outflows and related per capita values for 161 countries varied between 0.76 and 103,000 metric tons (MT) and 0.83-248 g, respectively. India, China, and Indonesia were the top three contributors to riverine plastic outflows, whereas Guatemala, Philippines, and Colombia had the highest per capita riverine plastic outflows. The total riverine plastic outflow from 161 countries was in the range of 0.15-0.53 million MT annually, accounting for 0.4 %-1.3 % of the 40 million MT plastic waste generated yearly by more than seven billion humans. Population, plastic waste generation, and Human Development Index are the dominant factors influencing riverine plastic outflows to global oceans from individual countries. Our findings provide an important basis for launching effective plastic pollution management and control measures in global countries.

Nexus Between Demographic Change and Elderly Care Need in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: Some Policy Implications

Population ageing is a phenomenon affecting the whole world. The countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are no exception but transitions in population ageing are still in the early stages of the process. With current demographic dividends experienced by the GCC and the rest of the Middle-East, the pace of population ageing will be faster than that experienced by many European countries. The purpose of this paper is to explore the population ageing experience of different GCC countries while situating this within a context of social policies that still at the very early stages of acknowledging such change. We utilise data from sources such as the United Nations and the World Bank, complemented by policy analysis of current age-related social security measures in the GCC. Given the importance of the family aged care system in the region, we consider the implications of changes in family structures, living conditions, and care needs for the elderly. The findings confirm the declining trend in fertility combined with increased life expectancy in all the six GCC countries. However, they highlight that social policy measures focused on the older generations and their care needs are still relatively at the early stages of each country's policy agenda. The implications of such changes are serious in term of both the demand for and supply of care. Policy-makers need to adapt cohesive social policy strategies that strengthen the complementing relationships between the state, family and wider community as stakeholders in the provision of aged care.

Persisting inequalities in survival patterns of childhood neuroblastoma in Southern and Eastern Europe and the effect of socio-economic development compared with those of the US

AIM

Neuroblastoma outcomes vary with disease characteristics, healthcare delivery and socio-economic indicators. We assessed survival patterns and prognostic factors for patients with neuroblastoma in 11 Southern and Eastern European (SEE) countries versus those in the US, including-for the first time-the Nationwide Registry for Childhood Hematological Malignancies and Solid Tumours (NARECHEM-ST)/Greece.

METHODS

Overall survival (OS) was calculated in 13 collaborating SEE childhood cancer registries (1829 cases, ∼1990-2016) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER), US (3072 cases, 1990-2012); Kaplan-Meier curves were used along with multivariable Cox regression models assessing the effect of age, gender, primary tumour site, histology, Human Development Index (HDI) and place of residence (urban/rural) on survival.

RESULTS

The 5-year OS rates varied widely among the SEE countries (Ukraine: 45%, Poland: 81%) with the overall SEE rate (59%) being significantly lower than in SEER (77%; p < 0.001). In the common registration period within SEE (2000-2008), no temporal trend was noted as opposed to a significant increase in SEER. Age >12 months (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.8-4.7 in subsequent age groups), male gender (HR: 1.1), residence in rural areas (HR: 1.3), living in high (HR: 2.2) or medium (HR: 2.4) HDI countries and specific primary tumour location were associated with worse outcome; conversely, ganglioneuroblastoma subtype (HR: 0.28) was associated with higher survival rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Allowing for the disease profile, children with neuroblastoma in SEE, especially those in rural areas and lower HDI countries, fare worse than patients in the US, mainly during the early years after diagnosis; this may be attributed to presumably modifiable socio-economic and healthcare system performance differentials warranting further research.

Outcome of Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: Sixty Years of Progress

BACKGROUND

A retrospective analysis was performed to investigate the survival outcomes in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) based on time period. We hypothesized that improvement has been obtained with the time-dependent therapeutic era and rise in the gross domestic product (GDP) and Human Development Index (HDI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 710 children who were treated for ALL between 1958 and 2018 at a single pediatric center were analyzed for probability of 5-year overall survival (pOS), event-free survival (pEFS) and relapse risk (pRR). Time periods were defined by the treatment protocols used in seven consecutive therapeutic eras.

RESULTS

Over the 60-year period analyzed, pOS increased from 1.2% to 90.7%, pEFS from 1.2% to 86.6%, and pRR decreased from 98.8% to 9.9% for patients treated in the past decade. Risk of mortality for patients who received chemotherapy and hematopoietic cell transplant was reduced to 9.9% in the recent era, however, no statistically significant survival difference was found between patients treated with stem cell transplant and those not.

CONCLUSION

The therapeutic era, related to improved GDP and HDI, was a statistically significant predictor of increased OS from ALL.

Human development index, maternal mortality rate and under 5 years mortality rate in West and South Asian countries, 1980-2010: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Human Development Index (HDI), maternal mortality rate (MMR) and children aged under 5 years mortality rate (U5MR) are fundamental issues, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in HDI, MMR and U5MR from 1980 to 2010 in certain West Asian countries as well as the relationship between these indexes.

METHODS

In this ecological study, HDI, MMR and U5MR information from studied countries during 1980 to 2010 was extracted from the gap minder site and then analysed using descriptive and analytical methods, including Spearman correlation.

RESULTS

The lowest and highest rates of HDI and MMR in 2010 were seen in the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan (HDI: 0.49, 0.81; MMR: 7.14, 335.45 respectively). HDI is rising in all countries studied, with the highest increase in the Islamic Republic of Iran (0.21). MMR and U5MR saw a decline over the years, with the greatest decrease seen in India, and the lowest and highest child mortality rate in 2010 found in Bahrain and Pakistan (8.3, 91.8 respectively). However, there was a negative relationship between HDI and MMR (r = -0.7, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

HDI increased during 1980-2010. The highest rate of HDI decrease was observed in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the greatest reduction of MMR was seen in India. Also, the highest decrease in U5MR was related to India as well, while MMR and U5MR rate decreased. Hence, improving HDI might have a definite impact on decreasing MMR and U5MR, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

The COVID-19 vaccination acceptance/hesitancy rate and its determinants among healthcare workers of 91 Countries: A multicenter cross-sectional study

The aim of this study was to investigate the COVID-19 vaccination acceptance rate and its determinants among healthcare workers in a multicenter study. This was a cross-sectional multi-center survey conducted from February 5 to April 29, 2021. The questionnaire consisted of 26 items in 6 subscales. The English version of the questionnaire was translated into seven languages and distributed through Google Forms using snowball sampling; a colleague in each country was responsible for the forward and backward translation, and also the distribution of the questionnaire. A forward stepwise logistic regression was utilized to explore the variables and questionnaire factors tied to the intention to COVID-19 vaccination. 4630 participants from 91 countries completed the questionnaire. According to the United Nations Development Program 2020, 43.6 % of participants were from low Human Development Index (HDI) regions, 48.3 % high and very high, and 8.1 % from medium. The overall vaccination hesitancy rate was 37 %. Three out of six factors of the questionnaire were significantly related to intention to the vaccination. While 'Perceived benefits of the COVID-19 vaccination' (OR: 3.82, p-value<0.001) and 'Prosocial norms' (OR: 5.18, p-value<0.001) were associated with vaccination acceptance, 'The vaccine safety/cost concerns' with OR: 3.52, p-value<0.001 was tied to vaccination hesitancy. Medical doctors and pharmacists were more willing to take the vaccine in comparison to others. Importantly, HDI with OR: 12.28, 95 % CI: 6.10-24.72 was a strong positive determinant of COVID-19 vaccination acceptance. This study highlighted the vaccination hesitancy rate of 37 % in our sample among HCWs. Increasing awareness regarding vaccination benefits, confronting the misinformation, and strengthening the prosocial norms would be the primary domains for maximizing the vaccination coverage. The study also showed that the HDI is strongly associated with the vaccination acceptance/hesitancy, in a way that those living in low HDI contexts are more hesitant to receive the vaccine.

Incidence and mortality of kidney cancer and its relationship with HDI (Human Development Index) in the world in 2012

Background and aims

Kidney cancer is among the cancers that have the highest growth rate in all age and racial groups in the world and is as the most deadly type of urinary tract cancer. Since awareness about this cancer incidence status and mortality is essential for better planning, this study aimed to investigate the incidence and mortality rate of kidney cancer and its relationship with the development index in the world in 2012.

Method

This study was an ecological study conducted based on GLOBOCAN project of the World Health Organization (WHO) for the countries in the world. The correlation between Standardized Incidence Rates (SIRs) and Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) of kidney cancer with HDI and its components was assessed using SPSS18.

Results

In total, 337,860 incidence cases (213,924 were men and 123,936 women) and 143,406 deaths (90,802 cases in men and 52,604 in women) of kidney cancer were recorded in 2012. A positive correlation of 0.731 was seen between SIR of kidney cancer and HDI (p≤0.001). Also, a negative correlation of 0.627 was seen between SMR of kidney cancer and HDI (p≤0.001).

Conclusion

The incidence and mortality rate of kidney cancer is higher in developed countries. A significant positive correlation has been seen between the standardized incidence and mortality rate of kidney cancer with the Human Development Index and its components. We need more studies to examine variation in incidence and mortality of kidney cancer and its related factors in the world.

Human Development Index of the maternal country of origin and its relationship with maternal near miss: A systematic review of the literature

Background

The reduction in maternal mortality worldwide has increased the interest in studying more frequent severe events such as maternal near miss. The Human Development Index is a sociodemographic country-specific variable that includes key human development indicators such as living a long and healthy life, acquiring knowledge, and enjoying a decent standard of living, allowing differentiation between countries. In a globalised environment, it is necessary to study whether the Human Development Index of each patient's country of origin can be associated with the maternal near-miss rate and thus classify the risk of maternal morbidity and mortality.

Methods

A systematic review of the literature published between 2008 and 2019 was conducted, including all articles that reported data about maternal near miss in their sample of pregnant women, in addition to describing the study countries of their sample population. The Human Development Index of the study country, the maternal near-miss rate, the maternal mortality rate, and other maternal-perinatal variables related to morbidity and mortality were used.

Results

After the systematic review, eighty two articles from over thirty countries were included, for a total of 3,699,697 live births, 37,191 near miss cases, and 4029 mortality cases. A statistically significant (p <0.05) inversely proportional relationship was observed between the Human Development Index of the study country and the maternal near-miss and mortality rates. The most common cause of maternal near miss was haemorrhage, with an overall rate of 38.5%, followed by hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (34.2%), sepsis (7.5%), and other undefined causes (20.9%).

Conclusions

The Human Development Index of the maternal country of origin is a sociodemographic variable allowing differentiation and classification of the risk of maternal mortality and near miss in pregnant women. The most common cause of maternal near miss published in the literature was haemorrhage.

Trial registration

PROSPERO ID: CRD 42019133464