Potential Impacts of a Pandemic on the US Farm Labor Market

An outbreak of COVID-19 among farmworkers could have significant impacts on the workers, agricultural producers, and the consumers. Farmers are implementing new labor management practices to slow the spread of the virus among workers. Since immigration is temporarily restricted, farmers may have difficulty securing a sufficient workforce. We test whether changes in the unemployment rate affected H-2A guest worker demand before the pandemic and find a statistically significant negative impact. Nevertheless, we expect that H-2A recruitment will be vital to sustaining agricultural production. We conclude by discussing potential long-term impacts of the pandemic on farm labor supply and demand.

Parental Proximity and Earnings after Job Displacements

The earnings of young adults living in their parents' neighborhoods completely recover after a job displacement, while the earnings of those living farther away permanently decline. Nearby workers appear to benefit from help with childcare. Earnings improvements are larger in states with expensive childcare and among workers in inflexible occupations, and workers' parents do less market work following their child's displacement. Differences in job search durations, transfers of housing services, and geographic mobility are too small to explain the result. Our results are also consistent with workers benefiting from parental employment networks.

Deporting "Bad Hombres"? The Profile of Deportees under Widespread versus Prioritized Enforcement

U.S. President Trump's administration has vowed to boost immigration enforcement to get rid of "bad hombres," or undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Using past data on the alleged detention motives for a representative sample of Mexican deportees, we evaluate how prior widespread and prioritized enforcement has fared in that regard. We find that while the early sweeping approach to enforcement raised deportees' propensity of being detained for minor offenses, the trend reversed with prioritized enforcement. These findings inform policy tactics that, aside from proving effective in prioritizing serious criminal offenses, can also lead to significant savings to taxpayers.

Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion

An important class of active labor market policy has received little impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to raise wages and employment by shrinking labor supply. Theories of endogenous technical advance raise the possibility of limited or even perverse impact. We study a natural policy experiment: the exclusion of almost half a million Mexican 'bracero' farm workers from the United States to improve farm labor market conditions. With novel archival data we measure state-level exposure to exclusion, and model the labor-market effect in the absence of technical change. We reject such an effect and fail to reject a null effect.