"It wasn't Luck: God Wants me Here for a Reason": Perceptions of Luck Among US Patients and Its Relationships to Other Factors Among US Patients

Patients may feel "lucky" or "unlucky" regarding disease, but questions arise about what they mean. Interviews suggest that US patients often invoke luck in trying to understand why diseases occur and treatments succeed/fail, and do so in the context of religious and spiritual beliefs, struggling with whether luck comes from God; and feeling luck is involved at various points, whether good or bad, regarding the whole or just aspects of an illness, and reflecting personal traits or single events. Social contexts can affect these views. These data have critical implications for researchers, physicians, nurses, chaplains, other providers and patients.

Who Do I (Not) Ask to Play my Lottery? Effects of Perceived Positive and Negative Agency, Communion and Luck on the Illusion of Control by Proxy

The paper investigates the illusion of control by proxy in games of chance - an attempt to exert control by assigning it to others who are perceived as more capable, communable or luckier. Following up on research by Wohl & Enzle, who showed participants' preference to ask lucky others to play a lottery instead of doing it themselves, we included proxies with positive and negative qualities in the domains of agency and communion, as well good and bad luck. In three experiments (total N = 249) we tested participants' choices between these proxies and a random number generator in a task consisting of obtaining lottery numbers. We obtained consistent preventative illusions of control (i.e. avoidance of proxies with strictly negative qualities, as well as proxies with positive communion but negative agency), however we observed indifference between proxies with positive qualities and random number generators.

The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership

Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.

Luck perception is associated with less frequent preventive practices and a higher number of social contacts among adults during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Objectives

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been crucial to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in many countries including the United Kingdom. A key research priority has been to better understand psychological and social determinants of health behaviours. We aimed to quantify the impact of luck perception on contact and preventive behaviours among adults in the UK, adjusting for key confounders.

Study design

A cross-sectional study.

Methods

Data were collected between July 28 and August 31, 2020. Luck perception, which refers to a belief whether individual's SARS-CoV-2 infection status is determined by fate or chance, was measured using Chance score, drawing on Health Locus of Control Theory. Self-reporting online questionnaires were administered to obtain participants' contact patterns and frequencies of avoiding crowds, hand washing and wearing a mask. Associations between luck perception and protective behaviours and contact patterns were quantified using regression models.

Results

Data from 233 survey respondents were analysed. Chance score was negatively associated with all protective behaviours; avoiding crowds (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25–0.86, p = 0.02), washing hands (aOR 0.35, 95%CI 0.17–0.70, p = 0.003), and wearing masks (aOR 0.58, 95%CI 0.34–0.99, p = 0.046). For non-physical contacts (with or without distancing), a significant interaction was identified between Chance score and ethnicity. Chance score increased the number of non-physical contacts among white British, an opposite trend was observed for non-white participants.

Conclusions

Luck perception during the pandemic may affect individuals’ health protection behaviours and contact patterns. Further mechanistic understandings of human behaviours against infectious diseases are indispensable for effective response to future pandemics.

Planning for Happenstance: Helping Students Optimize Unexpected Career Developments

INTRODUCTION

Planning for and responding to happenstance is an important but rarely discussed part of the professional development of medical students. We noted this gap while conducting a study of career inflection points of 24 physicians who frequently mentioned how luck had shaped their unfolding careers. A review of the career counseling literature led us to a body of work known as Planned Happenstance Learning Theory (PHLT). PHLT focuses on the attitudes and skills to make happenstance a positive force in one's life. We found no reference to this work in the medical education literature and resolved to address this gap.

METHODS

We created resources for an interactive, 90-minute faculty development workshop. In the workshop, the facilitator used a PowerPoint presentation, vignettes of happenstance, a student testimonial, and a reflection worksheet. We presented and formally evaluated the workshop at three national meetings for health science educators.

RESULTS

Workshop participants, mostly faculty (N = 45), consistently expressed positive regard for the workshop content, organization, and instructional methods, especially the opportunity for guided reflection. A retrospective pre/postevaluation revealed a meaningful increase in knowledge about PHLT attitudes and skills, as well as a commitment to use these skills in promoting professional development.

DISCUSSION

The skills and attitudes of PHLT are relevant to students' career development. A workshop designed to introduce PHLT skills and attitudes to faculty advisors and mentors can help prepare faculty to promote students' awareness and use of these attitudes and skills.

Success inhibits preschoolers' ability to establish selective trust

A number of studies have shown that preschoolers make inferences about potential informants based on the informants' past behavior, selectively trusting an informant who has been helpful in the past, for example, over one who has been unhelpful. Here we used a hiding game to show that 4- and 5-year-olds' selective trust can also be influenced by inferences they make about their own abilities. Children do not prefer a previously helpful informant over a previously unhelpful one when informant helpfulness is decoupled from children's success in finding hidden objects (Studies 1 and 3). Indeed, children do not seem to track informant helpfulness when their success at finding hidden objects has never depended on it (Study 2). A single failure to find a hidden object when offered information by the unhelpful informant can, however, lead them to selectively trust the previously helpful one later (Study 4). Children's selective trust is based not only on differences between informants but also on their sense of illusory control-their inferences about whether they need assistance from those informants in the first place.

Beliefs in being unlucky and deficits in executive functioning: an ERP study

There has been initial evidence to support the Dysexecutive Luck hypothesis, which proposes that beliefs in being unlucky are associated with deficits in executive functioning (Maltby et al., 2013). The present study tested the Dysexecutive Luck hypothesis by examining whether deficits in the early stage of top down attentional control led to an increase of neural activity in later stages of response related selection process among those who thought themselves to be unlucky. Individuals with these beliefs were compared to a control group using an Event-Related Potential (ERP) measure assessing underlying neural activity of semantic inhibition while completing a Stroop test. Results showed stronger main interference effects in the former group, via greater reaction times and a more negative distributed scalp late ERP component during incongruent trials in the time window of 450–780 ms post stimulus onset. Further, less efficient maintenance of task set among the former group was associated with greater late ERP response-related activation to compensate for the lack of top-down attentional control. These findings provide electrophysiological evidence to support the Dysexecutive Luck hypothesis.

What has luck got to do with economic development? An interpretation of resurgent Asia's growth experience

This paper critically reexamines the belief, currently gathering strength in the literature, that economic development depends on good luck rather than on good policy, and that Prometheus is "unchained by chance". While it is impossible to disprove the role of luck in growth, we argue that luck is endogenous, and good luck is a function of good policy. Luck favours those who strive. Again contrary to common belief, we show that resurgent Asian economies have endured more, not less, than their fair share of economic volatility. They learned their lessons by success and failures, and luck is endogenous through learning-by-investing.