Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study

Background

Of the eight large (>50 cases) US postelimination outbreaks, the first and last occurred in Ohio. Ohio's vaccination registry is incomplete. Community-level immunity gaps threaten more than two decades of measles elimination in the US. We developed a statistical model, VaxEstim, to rapidly estimate the early-phase vaccination coverage and immunity gap in the exposed population during the 2022 Central Ohio outbreak.

Methods

We used reconstructed daily incidence (from publicly available data) and assumptions about the distribution of the serial interval, or the time between symptom onset in successive measles cases, to estimate the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a partially immune population). We estimated early-phase measles vaccination coverage by comparing the effective reproduction number to the basic reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a fully susceptible population) while accounting for vaccine effectiveness. Finally, we estimated the early-phase immunity gap as the difference between the estimated critical vaccination threshold and vaccination coverage.

Findings

VaxEstim estimated the early-phase vaccination coverage as 53% (95% credible interval, 21%-77%), the critical vaccination threshold as 93%, and the immunity gap as 42% (95% credible interval, 18%-74%).

Interpretation

This study estimates a significant immunity gap in the exposed population during the early phase of the 2022 Central Ohio measles outbreak, suggesting a robust public health response is needed to identify the susceptible community and develop community-specific strategies to close the immunity gap.

Funding

This work was supported in part by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, National Institutes of Health; the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology; Imperial College London, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Community Jameel; the EDCTP2 programme, supported by the EU; and the Sergei Brin Foundation.

Utilization of the Public Health Ordinance to prevent nosocomial spread in a case of acute measles-associated psychosis

Measles is a highly contagious disease. A 24 years old patient, recently exposed to measles (unvaccinated), presented in the emergency department with severe agitation, compatible with an acute psychotic episode, during the measles epidemic which spread in Israel in 2018-2019. Upon hospital admission, strict isolation was instructed, yet, without compliance, probably due to the patient's status. Measles diagnosis was promptly confirmed. As measles transmission was eminent, public health measures were employed through immediate implementation of the section 15 of the Public Health Ordinance, allowing for compulsory short-term isolation. The patient's condition improved within a few days and the measures were no longer necessary. This measles case occurred in the pre-Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic when use of a Public Health Ordinance was considered an extreme measure. This is in contrast to the current global use of Public Health laws to enforce strict quarantine and isolation on persons infected or potentially exposed to COVID-19. Nevertheless, minimizing infectious diseases transmission is a core function of public health law. Utilizing legal enforcement in circumstances of immediate public health hazard, such as nosocomial measles transmission, necessitates careful consideration. The integrative clinical and public health approach and prompt measures employed in this exceptional case, led to prevention of further infection spread.

High risk of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis following measles outbreaks in Georgia

OBJECTIVE

To describe cases and estimate subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) risk following large-sale measles outbreaks in Georgia. A rare, fatal late complication of measles, SSPE is often overlooked in assessments focused on the acute illness. Georgia had 8377 and 11,495 reported measles cases during the 2004-2005 and 2013-2015 outbreaks, respectively, but SSPE burden has not been assessed.

METHODS

SSPE cases diagnosed during 2008-2017 were identified from hospitalization registries in major neurological departments likely to admit SSPE patients. Information on reported measles cases and deaths was obtained from the national measles surveillance system and published reports. The risk of SSPE (number of measles cases per one SSPE case) was calculated for cases associated with the 2004-2005 outbreak. Crude estimates were adjusted to account for potential under-reporting of measles, using 50%, 25% and 10% estimates of completeness of reporting.

RESULTS

Sixteen SSPE cases diagnosed during 2008-2017 were identified. Eleven (92%) of 12 SSPE cases with a known history of measles had infection at ≤2 years and one (8%) at 3 years of age. Crude estimate of SSPE risk for the 2004-2005 outbreak was 1:1396. Adjusted estimates were 1:2792, 1:1:5584 and 1:13 960, assuming 50%, 25% and 10% completeness of reporting measles cases, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The review demonstrated substantial risk of SSPE in Georgia, supporting recent data suggesting that risk of SSPE following measles infection is higher than previously thought. To prevent SSPE in Georgia, very high timely immunization coverage for measles should be achieved among children, and immunity gap among adults should be closed.

Measles-related hospitalizations and associated complications in Jerusalem, 2018-2019

OBJECTIVES

The 2018 measles outbreak in Israel affected >2000 people in Jerusalem. The aim of the study was to describe clinical features and complications of hospitalized measles patients in Jerusalem, as related to age group and risk factors.

METHODS

All individuals hospitalized with measles in the three main hospitals in Jerusalem during March 2018 to February 2019 were included. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were analysed.

RESULTS

Of 161 hospitalized individuals, 86 (53.4%) were <5 years old, 16 (10%) were ≥5 years but <20 years old, and 59 (36.6%) were ≥20 years old. Most, 114/135 (85%), were unvaccinated. Immunocompromised state was identified in 12/161 (7.5%) patients, 20/161 (12.4%) had other underlying co-morbidities, and four were pregnant. Hypoxaemia on admission was a common finding in all age groups. Hepatitis was more common among adults ≥20 years old (33/59, 59%). Measles-related complications were noted in 95/161 (59%) patients, and included pneumonia/pneumonitis (67/161, 41.6%), which was more common in young (<5 years) children, diarrhoea (18/161, 11.2%), otitis (18/161, 11.2%), and neurological complications (6/161, 3.7%)-the latter occurring more frequently in the 5- to 20-year age group. Two of the 12 immunocompromised patients died of measles-related complications. A high re-admission rate (19/161, 11.8%) within 3 months was documented among hospitalized measles patients.

CONCLUSION

The burden of hospitalization, as well as the high rate of short- and long-term complications observed in hospitalized patients, underscore the importance of maintaining a high measles vaccine coverage, with enhanced targeting of unvaccinated population pockets.