Abstract
The development of sustainable shellfish aquaculture is highly dependent on the provision of reliable monitoring and predictive information on the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs). The Portuguese HAB early warning system and shellfish closures presented here is a prototype, developed in the ASIMUTH project. It relies on weekly monitoring data composed of observations of HAB species and toxin concentrations within shellfish, and ocean circulation forecasts generated by an operational oceanographic model. The shellfish harvesting areas comprise coastal areas, estuaries+rías and coastal lagoons. The weekly bulletin characterizes the current shellfish closure situation and next week's forecasts for potentially impacted areas. The period analyzed ranged from 27 July 2013 to 17 March 2014, and describes the first skill assessment of the warning system. The forecast accuracy was evaluated, considering the number of forecasts that were verified to be correct the following week (85%) as well as the number of events not forecasted (false negatives, 12%) and those expected but did not occur (false positives, 3%). Variations were most visible in the first weeks of bulletin implementation and during autumn-winter months. The complementary use of field data, remote sensing and operational models led to more accurate predictions of blooms and range of the event.
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