IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2017 and projections for 2045

INTRODUCTION

Since the year 2000, IDF has been measuring the prevalence of diabetes nationally, regionally and globally.

AIM

To produce estimates of the global burden of diabetes and its impact for 2017 and projections for 2045.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify published studies on the prevalence of diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance and hyperglycaemia in pregnancy in the period from 1990 to 2016. The highest quality studies on diabetes prevalence were selected for each country. A logistic regression model was used to generate age-specific prevalence estimates or each country. Estimates for countries without data were extrapolated from similar countries.

RESULTS

It was estimated that in 2017 there are 451 million (age 18-99 years) people with diabetes worldwide. These figures were expected to increase to 693 million) by 2045. It was estimated that almost half of all people (49.7%) living with diabetes are undiagnosed. Moreover, there was an estimated 374 million people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and it was projected that almost 21.3 million live births to women were affected by some form of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. In 2017, approximately 5 million deaths worldwide were attributable to diabetes in the 20-99 years age range. The global healthcare expenditure on people with diabetes was estimated to be USD 850 billion in 2017.

CONCLUSION

The new estimates of diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes and healthcare expenditure due to diabetes present a large social, financial and health system burden across the world.

Alternative projections of mortality and disability by cause 1990-2020: Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

Plausible projections of future mortality and disability are a useful aid in decisions on priorities for health research, capital investment, and training. Rates and patterns of ill health are determined by factors such as socioeconomic development, educational attainment, technological developments, and their dispersion among populations, as well as exposure to hazards such as tobacco. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), we developed three scenarios of future mortality and disability for different age-sex groups, causes, and regions.

METHODS

We used the most important disease and injury trends since 1950 in nine cause-of-death clusters. Regression equations for mortality rates for each cluster by region were developed from gross domestic product per person (in international dollars), average number of years of education, time (in years, as a surrogate for technological change), and smoking intensity, which shows the cumulative effects based on data for 47 countries in 1950-90. Optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline projections of the independent variables were made. We related mortality from detailed causes to mortality from a cause cluster to project more detailed causes. Based on projected numbers of deaths by cause, years of life lived with disability (YLDs) were projected from different relation models of YLDs to years of life lost (YLLs). Population projections were prepared from World Bank projections of fertility and the projected mortality rates.

FINDINGS

Life expectancy at birth for women was projected to increase in all three scenarios; in established market economies to about 90 years by 2020. Far smaller gains in male life expectancy were projected than in females; in formerly socialist economies of Europe, male life expectancy may not increase at all. Worldwide mortality from communicable maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders was expected to decline in the baseline scenario from 17.2 million deaths in 1990 to 10.3 million in 2020. We projected that non-communicable disease mortality will increase from 28.1 million deaths in 1990 to 49.7 million in 2020. Deaths from injury may increase from 5.1 million to 8.4 million. Leading causes of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) predicted by the baseline model were (in descending order): ischaemic heart disease, unipolar major depression, road-traffic accidents, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, war injuries, diarrhoeal diseases, and HIV. Tobacco-attributable mortality is projected to increase from 3.0 million deaths in 1990 to 8.4 million deaths in 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Health trends in the next 25 years will be determined mainly by the ageing of the world's population, the decline in age-specific mortality rates from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders, the spread of HIV, and the increase in tobacco-related mortality and disability. Projections, by their nature, are highly uncertain, but we found some robust results with implications for health policy.

Global mortality, disability, and the contribution of risk factors: Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

Prevention and control of disease and injury require information about the leading medical causes of illness and exposures or risk factors. The assessment of the public-health importance of these has been hampered by the lack of common methods to investigate the overall, worldwide burden. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) provides a standardised approach to epidemiological assessment and uses a standard unit, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to aid comparisons.

METHODS

DALYs for each age-sex group in each GBD region for 107 disorders were calculated, based on the estimates of mortality by cause, incidence, average age of onset, duration, and disability severity. Estimates of the burden and prevalence of exposure in different regions of disorders attributable to malnutrition, poor water supply, sanitation and personal and domestic hygiene, unsafe sex, tobacco use, alcohol, occupation, hypertension, physical inactivity, use of illicit drugs, and air pollution were developed.

FINDINGS

Developed regions account for 11.6% of the worldwide burden from all causes of death and disability, and account for 90.2% of health expenditure worldwide. Communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders explain 43.9%; non-communicable causes 40.9%; injuries 15.1%; malignant neoplasms 5.1%; neuropsychiatric conditions 10.5%; and cardiovascular conditions 9.7% of DALYs worldwide. The ten leading specific causes of global DALYs are, in descending order, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, perinatal disorders, unipolar major depression, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, tuberculosis, measles, road-traffic accidents, and congenital anomalies. 15.9% of DALYs worldwide are attributable to childhood malnutrition and 6.8% to poor water, and sanitation and personal and domestic hygiene.

INTERPRETATION

The three leading contributors to the burden of disease are communicable and perinatal disorders affecting children. The substantial burdens of neuropsychiatric disorders and injuries are under-recognised. The epidemiological transition in terms of DALYs has progressed substantially in China, Latin America and the Caribbean, other Asia and islands, and the middle eastern crescent. If the burdens of disability and death are taken into account, our list differs substantially from other lists of the leading causes of death. DALYs provide a common metric to aid meaningful comparison of the burden of risk factors, diseases, and injuries.

IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040

AIM

To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates.

RESULTS

540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340-536 million) people with diabetes aged 20-79years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low- and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20-79years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521-829 million) by 2040.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.

Mortality by cause for eight regions of the world: Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

Reliable information on causes of death is essential to the development of national and international health policies for prevention and control of disease and injury. Medically certified information is available for less than 30% of the estimated 50.5 million deaths that occur each year worldwide. However, other data sources can be used to develop cause-of-death estimates for populations. To be useful, estimates must be internally consistent, plausible, and reflect epidemiological characteristics suggested by community-level data. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) used various data sources and made corrections for miscoding of important diseases (eg, ischaemic heart disease) to estimate worldwide and regional cause-of-death.patterns in 1990 for 14 age-sex groups in eight regions, for 107 causes.

METHODS

Preliminary estimates were developed with available vital-registration data, sample-registration data for India and China, and small-scale population-study data sources. Registration data were corrected for miscoding, and Lorenz-curve analysis was used to estimate cause-of-death patterns in areas without registration. Preliminary estimates were modified to reflect the epidemiology of selected diseases and injuries. Final estimates were checked to ensure that numbers of deaths in specific age-sex groups did not exceed estimates suggested by independent demographic methods.

FINDINGS

98% of all deaths in children younger than 15 years are in the developing world. 83% and 59% of deaths at 15-59 and 70 years, respectively, are in the developing world. The probability of death between birth and 15 years ranges from 22.0% in sub-Saharan Africa to 1.1% in the established market economies. Probabilities of death between 15 and 60 years range from 7.2% for women in established market economies to 39.1% for men in sub-Saharan Africa. The probability of a man or woman dying from a non-communicable disease is higher in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions than in established market economies. Worldwide in 1990, communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders accounted for 17.2 million deaths, non-communicable diseases for 28.1 million deaths and injuries for 5.1 million deaths. The leading causes of death in 1990 were ischaemic heart disease (6.3 million deaths), cerebrovascular accidents (4.4 million deaths), lower respiratory infections (4.3 million), diarrhoeal diseases (2.9 million), perinatal disorders (2.4 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.2 million), tuberculosis (2.0 million), measles (1.1 million), road-traffic accidents (1.0 million), and lung cancer (0.9 million).

INTERPRETATION

Five of the ten leading killers are communicable, perinatal, and nutritional disorders largely affecting children. Non-communicable diseases are, however, already major public health challenges in all regions. Injuries, which account for 10% of global mortality, are often ignored as a major cause of death and may require innovative strategies to reduce their toll. The estimates by cause have wide Cls, but provide a foundation for a more informed debate on public-health priorities.

Bladder Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A Global Overview and Recent Trends

CONTEXT

Bladder cancer has become a common cancer globally, with an estimated 430 000 new cases diagnosed in 2012.

OBJECTIVE

We examine the most recent global bladder cancer incidence and mortality patterns and trends, the current understanding of the aetiology of the disease, and specific issues that may influence the registration and reporting of bladder cancer.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Global bladder cancer incidence and mortality statistics are based on data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the World Health Organisation (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, GLOBOCAN, and the World Health Organisation Mortality).

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Bladder cancer ranks as the ninth most frequently-diagnosed cancer worldwide, with the highest incidence rates observed in men in Southern and Western Europe, North America, as well in certain countries in Northern Africa or Western Asia. Incidence rates are consistently lower in women than men, although sex differences varied greatly between countries. Diverging incidence trends were also observed by sex in many countries, with stabilising or declining rates in men but some increasing trends seen for women. Bladder cancer ranks 13th in terms of deaths ranks, with mortality rates decreasing particularly in the most developed countries; the exceptions are countries undergoing rapid economic transition, including in Central and South America, some central, southern, and eastern European countries, and the Baltic countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed patterns and trends of bladder cancer incidence worldwide appear to reflect the prevalence of tobacco smoking, although infection with Schistosoma haematobium and other risk factors are major causes in selected populations. Differences in coding and registration practices need to be considered when comparing bladder cancer statistics geographically or over time.

PATIENT SUMMARY

The main risk factor for bladder cancer is tobacco smoking. The observed patterns and trends of bladder cancer incidence worldwide appear to reflect the prevalence of tobacco smoking.

Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries and 25 major cancers in 2018

INTRODUCTION

Europe contains 9% of the world population but has a 25% share of the global cancer burden. Up-to-date cancer statistics in Europe are key to cancer planning. Cancer incidence and mortality estimates for 25 major cancers are presented for the 40 countries in the four United Nations-defined areas of Europe and for Europe and the European Union (EU-28) for 2018.

METHODS

Estimates of national incidence and mortality rates for 2018 were based on statistical models applied to the most recently published data, with predictions obtained from recent trends, where possible. The estimated rates in 2018 were applied to the 2018 population estimates to obtain the estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in Europe in 2018.

RESULTS

There were an estimated 3.91 million new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 1.93 million deaths from cancer in Europe in 2018. The most common cancer sites were cancers of the female breast (523,000 cases), followed by colorectal (500,000), lung (470,000) and prostate cancer (450,000). These four cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Europe. The most common causes of death from cancer were cancers of the lung (388,000 deaths), colorectal (243,000), breast (138,000) and pancreatic cancer (128,000). In the EU-28, the estimated number of new cases of cancer was approximately 1.6 million in males and 1.4 million in females, with 790,000 men and 620,000 women dying from the disease in the same year.

CONCLUSION

The present estimates of the cancer burden in Europe alongside a description of the profiles of common cancers at the national and regional level provide a basis for establishing priorities for cancer control actions across Europe. The estimates presented here are based on the recorded data from 145 population-based cancer registries in Europe. Their long established role in planning and evaluating national cancer plans on the continent should not be undervalued.

2020 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

This article describes the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease (AD), including incidence and prevalence, mortality and morbidity, use and costs of care, and the overall impact on caregivers and society. The Special Report discusses the future challenges of meeting care demands for the growing number of people living with Alzheimer's dementia in the United States with a particular emphasis on primary care. By mid-century, the number of Americans age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia may grow to 13.8 million. This represents a steep increase from the estimated 5.8 million Americans age 65 and older who have Alzheimer's dementia today. Official death certificates recorded 122,019 deaths from AD in 2018, the latest year for which data are available, making Alzheimer's the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and the fifth leading cause of death among Americans age 65 and older. Between 2000 and 2018, deaths resulting from stroke, HIV and heart disease decreased, whereas reported deaths from Alzheimer's increased 146.2%. In 2019, more than 16 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 18.6 billion hours of care to people with Alzheimer's or other dementias. This care is valued at nearly $244 billion, but its costs extend to family caregivers' increased risk for emotional distress and negative mental and physical health outcomes. Average per-person Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries age 65 and older with AD or other dementias are more than three times as great as payments for beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are more than 23 times as great. Total payments in 2020 for health care, long-term care and hospice services for people age 65 and older with dementia are estimated to be $305 billion. As the population of Americans living with Alzheimer's dementia increases, the burden of caring for that population also increases. These challenges are exacerbated by a shortage of dementia care specialists, which places an increasing burden on primary care physicians (PCPs) to provide care for people living with dementia. Many PCPs feel underprepared and inadequately trained to handle dementia care responsibilities effectively. This report includes recommendations for maximizing quality care in the face of the shortage of specialists and training challenges in primary care.

2021 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

This article describes the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease (AD), including incidence and prevalence, mortality and morbidity, use and costs of care, and the overall impact on caregivers and society. The Special Report discusses the challenges of providing equitable health care for people with dementia in the United States. An estimated 6.2 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer's dementia today. This number could grow to 13.8 million by 2060 barring the development of medical breakthroughs to prevent, slow or cure AD. Official death certificates recorded 121,499 deaths from AD in 2019, the latest year for which data are available, making Alzheimer's the sixth-leading cause of death in the United States and the fifth-leading cause of death among Americans age 65 and older. Between 2000 and 2019, deaths from stroke, heart disease and HIV decreased, whereas reported deaths from AD increased more than 145%. This trajectory of deaths from AD was likely exacerbated in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 11 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 15.3 billion hours of care to people with Alzheimer's or other dementias in 2020. These figures reflect a decline in the number of caregivers compared with a decade earlier, as well as an increase in the amount of care provided by each remaining caregiver. Unpaid dementia caregiving was valued at $256.7 billion in 2020. Its costs, however, extend to family caregivers' increased risk for emotional distress and negative mental and physical health outcomes - costs that have been aggravated by COVID-19. Average per-person Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries age 65 and older with AD or other dementias are more than three times as great as payments for beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are more than 23 times as great. Total payments in 2021 for health care, long-term care and hospice services for people age 65 and older with dementia are estimated to be $355 billion. Despite years of efforts to make health care more equitable in the United States, racial and ethnic disparities remain - both in terms of health disparities, which involve differences in the burden of illness, and health care disparities, which involve differences in the ability to use health care services. Blacks, Hispanics, Asian Americans and Native Americans continue to have a higher burden of illness and lower access to health care compared with Whites. Such disparities, which have become more apparent during COVID-19, extend to dementia care. Surveys commissioned by the Alzheimer's Association recently shed new light on the role of discrimination in dementia care, the varying levels of trust between racial and ethnic groups in medical research, and the differences between groups in their levels of concern about and awareness of Alzheimer's disease. These findings emphasize the need to increase racial and ethnic diversity in both the dementia care workforce and in Alzheimer's clinical trials.

Epidemiology of Prostate Cancer

Prostate cancer is the second most frequent cancer diagnosis made in men and the fifth leading cause of death worldwide. Prostate cancer may be asymptomatic at the early stage and often has an indolent course that may require only active surveillance. Based on GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates, 1,276,106 new cases of prostate cancer were reported worldwide in 2018, with higher prevalence in the developed countries. Differences in the incidence rates worldwide reflect differences in the use of diagnostic testing. Prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates are strongly related to the age with the highest incidence being seen in elderly men (> 65 years of age). African-American men have the highest incidence rates and more aggressive type of prostate cancer compared to White men. There is no evidence yet on how to prevent prostate cancer; however, it is possible to lower the risk by limiting high-fat foods, increasing the intake of vegetables and fruits and performing more exercise. Screening is highly recommended at age 45 for men with familial history and African-American men. Up-to-date statistics on prostate cancer occurrence and outcomes along with a better understanding of the etiology and causative risk factors are essential for the primary prevention of this disease.

2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

This article describes the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease, including prevalence and incidence, mortality and morbidity, use and costs of care, and the overall impact on family caregivers, the dementia workforce and society. The Special Report examines the patient journey from awareness of cognitive changes to potential treatment with drugs that change the underlying biology of Alzheimer's. An estimated 6.7 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer's dementia today. This number could grow to 13.8 million by 2060 barring the development of medical breakthroughs to prevent, slow or cure AD. Official death certificates recorded 121,499 deaths from AD in 2019, and Alzheimer's disease was officially listed as the sixth-leading cause of death in the United States. In 2020 and 2021, when COVID-19 entered the ranks of the top ten causes of death, Alzheimer's was the seventh-leading cause of death. Alzheimer's remains the fifth-leading cause of death among Americans age 65 and older. Between 2000 and 2019, deaths from stroke, heart disease and HIV decreased, whereas reported deaths from AD increased more than 145%. This trajectory of deaths from AD was likely exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. More than 11 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 18 billion hours of care to people with Alzheimer's or other dementias in 2022. These figures reflect a decline in the number of caregivers compared with a decade earlier, as well as an increase in the amount of care provided by each remaining caregiver. Unpaid dementia caregiving was valued at $339.5 billion in 2022. Its costs, however, extend to family caregivers' increased risk for emotional distress and negative mental and physical health outcomes - costs that have been aggravated by COVID-19. Members of the paid health care workforce are involved in diagnosing, treating and caring for people with dementia. In recent years, however, a shortage of such workers has developed in the United States. This shortage - brought about, in part, by COVID-19 - has occurred at a time when more members of the dementia care workforce are needed. Therefore, programs will be needed to attract workers and better train health care teams. Average per-person Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries age 65 and older with AD or other dementias are almost three times as great as payments for beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are more than 22 times as great. Total payments in 2023 for health care, long-term care and hospice services for people age 65 and older with dementia are estimated to be $345 billion. The Special Report examines whether there will be sufficient numbers of physician specialists to provide Alzheimer's care and treatment now that two drugs are available that change the underlying biology of Alzheimer's disease.

Venous and arterial thromboembolic complications in COVID-19 patients admitted to an academic hospital in Milan, Italy

Background

Few data are available on the rate and characteristics of thromboembolic complications in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Methods

We studied consecutive symptomatic patients with laboratory-proven COVID-19 admitted to a university hospital in Milan, Italy (13.02.2020–10.04.2020). The primary outcome was any thromboembolic complication, including venous thromboembolism (VTE), ischemic stroke, and acute coronary syndrome (ACS)/myocardial infarction (MI). Secondary outcome was overt disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC).

Results

We included 388 patients (median age 66 years, 68% men, 16% requiring intensive care [ICU]). Thromboprophylaxis was used in 100% of ICU patients and 75% of those on the general ward. Thromboembolic events occurred in 28 (7.7% of closed cases; 95%CI 5.4%–11.0%), corresponding to a cumulative rate of 21% (27.6% ICU, 6.6% general ward). Half of the thromboembolic events were diagnosed within 24 h of hospital admission. Forty-four patients underwent VTE imaging tests and VTE was confirmed in 16 (36%). Computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) was performed in 30 patients, corresponding to 7.7% of total, and pulmonary embolism was confirmed in 10 (33% of CTPA). The rate of ischemic stroke and ACS/MI was 2.5% and 1.1%, respectively. Overt DIC was present in 8 (2.2%) patients.

Conclusions

The high number of arterial and, in particular, venous thromboembolic events diagnosed within 24 h of admission and the high rate of positive VTE imaging tests among the few COVID-19 patients tested suggest that there is an urgent need to improve specific VTE diagnostic strategies and investigate the efficacy and safety of thromboprophylaxis in ambulatory COVID-19 patients.

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COVID-19 is characterized by coagulation activation and endothelial dysfunction. Few data are available on thromboembolic complications.

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We studied symptomatic patients with laboratory-proven COVID-19 admitted to a university hospital in Milan, Italy (13.02-10.04.2020).

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Venous and arterial thromboembolic events occurred in 8% of hospitalized patients (cumulative rate 21.0%) and 50% of events were diagnosed within 24 h of hospital admission.

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Forty-four (11% of total) patients underwent VTE imaging tests; 16 were positive (36% of tests), suggesting underestimation of thromboembolic complications.

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There is an urgent need to investigate VTE diagnostic strategies and the impact of thromboprophylaxis in ambulatory COVID-19 patients.

Epidemiology of Pancreatic Cancer: Global Trends, Etiology and Risk Factors

Pancreatic cancer is the seventh leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. However, its toll is higher in more developed countries. Reasons for vast differences in mortality rates of pancreatic cancer are not completely clear yet, but it may be due to lack of appropriate diagnosis, treatment and cataloging of cancer cases. Because patients seldom exhibit symptoms until an advanced stage of the disease, pancreatic cancer remains one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms that caused 432,242 new deaths in 2018 (GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates). Globally, 458,918 new cases of pancreatic cancer have been reported in 2018, and 355,317 new cases are estimated to occur until 2040. Despite advancements in the detection and management of pancreatic cancer, the 5-year survival rate still stands at 9% only. To date, the causes of pancreatic carcinoma are still insufficiently known, although certain risk factors have been identified, such as tobacco smoking, diabetes mellitus, obesity, dietary factors, alcohol abuse, age, ethnicity, family history and genetic factors, Helicobacter pylori infection, non-O blood group and chronic pancreatitis. In general population, screening of large groups is not considered useful to detect the disease at its early stage, although newer techniques and the screening of tightly targeted groups (especially of those with family history), are being evaluated. Primary prevention is considered of utmost importance. Up-to-date statistics on pancreatic cancer occurrence and outcome along with a better understanding of the etiology and identifying the causative risk factors are essential for the primary prevention of this disease.

2022 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

This article describes the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease (AD), including incidence and prevalence, mortality and morbidity, use and costs of care, and the overall impact on family caregivers, the dementia workforce and society. The Special Report discusses consumers' and primary care physicians' perspectives on awareness, diagnosis and treatment of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), including MCI due to Alzheimer's disease. An estimated 6.5 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer's dementia today. This number could grow to 13.8 million by 2060 barring the development of medical breakthroughs to prevent, slow or cure AD. Official death certificates recorded 121,499 deaths from AD in 2019, the latest year for which data are available. Alzheimer's disease was officially listed as the sixth-leading cause of death in the United States in 2019 and the seventh-leading cause of death in 2020 and 2021, when COVID-19 entered the ranks of the top ten causes of death. Alzheimer's remains the fifth-leading cause of death among Americans age 65 and older. Between 2000 and 2019, deaths from stroke, heart disease and HIV decreased, whereas reported deaths from AD increased more than 145%. More than 11 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 16 billion hours of care to people with Alzheimer's or other dementias in 2021. These figures reflect a decline in the number of caregivers compared with a decade earlier, as well as an increase in the amount of care provided by each remaining caregiver. Unpaid dementia caregiving was valued at $271.6 billion in 2021. Its costs, however, extend to family caregivers' increased risk for emotional distress and negative mental and physical health outcomes - costs that have been aggravated by COVID-19. Members of the dementia care workforce have also been affected by COVID-19. As essential care workers, some have opted to change jobs to protect their own health and the health of their families. However, this occurs at a time when more members of the dementia care workforce are needed. Average per-person Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries age 65 and older with AD or other dementias are almost three times as great as payments for beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are more than 22 times as great. Total payments in 2022 for health care, long-term care and hospice services for people age 65 and older with dementia are estimated to be $321 billion. A recent survey commissioned by the Alzheimer's Association revealed several barriers to consumers' understanding of MCI. The survey showed low awareness of MCI among Americans, a reluctance among Americans to see their doctor after noticing MCI symptoms, and persistent challenges for primary care physicians in diagnosing MCI. Survey results indicate the need to improve MCI awareness and diagnosis, especially in underserved communities, and to encourage greater participation in MCI-related clinical trials.

Risks of all-cause and suicide mortality in mental disorders: a meta-review

A meta-review, or review of systematic reviews, was conducted to explore the risks of all-cause and suicide mortality in major mental disorders. A systematic search generated 407 relevant reviews, of which 20 reported mortality risks in 20 different mental disorders and included over 1.7 million patients and over a quarter of a million deaths. All disorders had an increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the general population, and many had mortality risks larger than or comparable to heavy smoking. Those with the highest all-cause mortality ratios were substance use disorders and anorexia nervosa. These higher mortality risks translate into substantial (10-20 years) reductions in life expectancy. Borderline personality disorder, anorexia nervosa, depression and bipolar disorder had the highest suicide risks. Notable gaps were identified in the review literature, and the quality of the included reviews was typically low. The excess risks of mortality and suicide in all mental disorders justify a higher priority for the research, prevention, and treatment of the determinants of premature death in psychiatric patients.

Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040.

METHODS

Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040.

RESULTS

Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone.

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.

Global Burden of 5 Major Types of Gastrointestinal Cancer

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There were an estimated 4.8 million new cases of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers and 3.4 million related deaths, worldwide, in 2018. GI cancers account for 26% of the global cancer incidence and 35% of all cancer-related deaths. We investigated the global burden from the 5 major GI cancers, as well as geographic and temporal trends in cancer-specific incidence and mortality.

METHODS

Data on primary cancers of the esophagus, stomach, colorectum, liver, and pancreas were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2018, as well as from the Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents series, and the World Health Organization mortality database from 1960 onward. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, and level of human development.

RESULTS

We observed geographic and temporal variations in incidence and mortality for all 5 types of GI cancers. Esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers were more common in Asia than in other parts of the world, and the burden from colorectal and pancreatic cancers was highest in Europe and North America. There was a uniform decrease in gastric cancer incidence, but an increasing incidence of colorectal cancer in formerly low-incidence regions during the studied time period. We found slight increases in incidence of liver and pancreatic cancer in some high-income regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the incidence of some GI cancer types has decreased, this group of malignancies continues to pose major challenges to public health. Primary and secondary prevention measures are important for controlling these malignancies-most importantly reducing consumption of tobacco and alcohol, obesity control, immunizing populations against hepatitis B virus infection, and screening for colorectal cancer.

Epidemiology of heart failure

The heart failure syndrome has first been described as an emerging epidemic about 25 years ago. Today, because of a growing and ageing population, the total number of heart failure patients still continues to rise. However, the case mix of heart failure seems to be evolving. Incidence has stabilized and may even be decreasing in some populations, but alarming opposite trends have been observed in the relatively young, possibly related to an increase in obesity. In addition, a clear transition towards heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction has occurred. Although this transition is partially artificial, due to improved recognition of heart failure as a disorder affecting the entire left ventricular ejection fraction spectrum, links can be made with the growing burden of obesity‐related diseases and with the ageing of the population. Similarly, evidence suggests that the number of patients with heart failure may be on the rise in low‐income countries struggling under the double burden of communicable diseases and conditions associated with a Western‐type lifestyle. These findings, together with the observation that the mortality rate of heart failure is declining less rapidly than previously, indicate we have not reached the end of the epidemic yet. In this review, the evolving epidemiology of heart failure is put into perspective, to discern major trends and project future directions.

The diet and 15-year death rate in the seven countries study

In 15 cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, comprising 11,579 men aged 40-59 years and "healthy" at entry, 2,288 died in 15 years. Death rates differed among cohorts. Differences in mean age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and smoking habits "explained" 46% of variance in death rate from all causes, 80% from coronary heart disease, 35% from cancer, and 45% from stroke. Death rate differences were unrelated to cohort differences in mean relative body weight, fatness, and physical activity. The cohorts differed in average diets. Death rates were related positively to average percentage of dietary energy from saturated fatty acids, negatively to dietary energy percentage from monounsaturated fatty acids, and were unrelated to dietary energy percentage from polyunsaturated fatty acids, proteins, carbohydrates, and alcohol. All death rates were negatively related to the ratio of monounsaturated to saturated fatty acids. Inclusion of that ratio with age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and smoking habits as independent variables accounted for 85% of variance in rates of deaths from all causes, 96% coronary heart disease, 55% cancer, and 66% stroke. Oleic acid accounted for almost all differences in monounsaturates among cohorts. All-cause and coronary heart disease death rates were low in cohorts with olive oil as the main fat. Causal relationships are not claimed but consideration of characteristics of populations as well as of individuals within populations is urged in evaluating risks.

The effect of age on the association between body-mass index and mortality

BACKGROUND

The effect of age on optimal body weight is controversial, and few studies have had adequate numbers of subjects to analyze mortality as a function of body-mass index across age groups.

METHODS

We studied mortality over 12 years among white men and women who participated in the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study I (from 1960 through 1972). The 62,116 men and 262,019 women included in this analysis had never smoked cigarettes, had no history of heart disease, stroke, or cancer (other than skin cancer) at base line in 1959-1960, and had no history of recent unintentional weight loss. The date and cause of death for subjects who died were determined from death certificates. The associations between body-mass index (defined as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) and mortality were examined for six age groups in analyses in which we adjusted for age, educational level, physical activity, and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

Greater body-mass index was associated with higher mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular disease in men and women up to 75 years of age. However, the relative risk associated with greater body-mass index declined with age. For example, for mortality from cardiovascular disease, the relative risk associated with an increment of 1 in the body-mass index was 1.10 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.16) for 30-to-44-year-old men and 1.03 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.05) for 65-to-74-year-old men. For women, the corresponding relative risk estimates were 1.08 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.11) and 1.02 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Excess body weight increases the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular disease in adults between 30 and 74 years of age. The relative risk associated with greater body weight is higher among younger subjects.

Epidemiology of Renal Cell Carcinoma

CONTEXT

Despite the improvement in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) diagnosis and management observed during the last 2 decades, RCC remains one of the most lethal urological malignancies. With the expansion of routine imaging for many disorders, an increasing number of patients who harbour RCC are identified incidentally.

OBJECTIVE

To summarise and compare RCC incidence and mortality rates, analyse the magnitude of risk factors, and interpret these epidemiological observations in the context of screening and disease management.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

The primary objective of the current review was to retrieve and describe worldwide RCC incidence/mortality rates. Secondly, a narrative literature review about the magnitude of the known risk factors was performed. Finally, data retrieved from the first two steps were elaborated to define the clinical implications for RCC screening.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

RCC incidence and mortality significantly differ among individual countries and world regions. Potential RCC risk factors include behavioural and environmental factors, comorbidities, and analgesics. Smoking, obesity, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease represent established risk factors. Other factors have been associated with an increased RCC risk, although selection biases may be present and controversial results have been reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of RCC varies worldwide. Within the several RCC risk factors identified, smoking, obesity, and hypertension are most strongly associated with RCC. In individuals at a higher risk of RCC, the cost effectiveness of a screening programme needs to be assessed on a country-specific level due to geographic heterogeneity in incidence and mortality rates, costs, and management implications. Owing to the low rates of RCC, implementation of accurate biomarkers appears to be mandatory.

PATIENT SUMMARY

The probability of harbouring kidney cancer is higher in developed countries and among smokers, obese individuals, and individuals with hypertension.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There have been many studies of the effects of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but these have produced conflicting results. We performed a meta-analysis of these studies to quantify the magnitude of the association between NAFLD (and NAFLD severity) and risk of CVD events.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Google scholar, and Web of Science databases using terms "NAFLD", "cardiovascular events", "cardiovascular mortality", "prognosis" and their combinations to identify observational studies published through January 2016. We included only observational studies conducted in adults >18years and in which NAFLD was diagnosed on imaging or histology. Data from selected studies were extracted and meta-analysis was then performed using random effects modelling.

RESULTS

A total of 16 unique, observational prospective and retrospective studies with 34,043 adult individuals (36.3% with NAFLD) and approximately 2,600 CVD outcomes (>70% CVD deaths) over a median period of 6.9years were included in the final analysis. Patients with NAFLD had a higher risk of fatal and/or non-fatal CVD events than those without NAFLD (random effect odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.26-2.13). Patients with more 'severe' NAFLD were also more likely to develop fatal and non-fatal CVD events (OR 2.58; 1.78-3.75). Sensitivity analyses did not alter these findings. Funnel plot and Egger's test did not reveal significant publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events. However, the observational design of the studies included does not allow to draw definitive causal inferences.

LAY SUMMARY

The data on whether NAFLD by itself is associated with increased cardiovascular events and death remains an issue of debate. The findings of this updated and large meta-analysis of observational studies indicate that NAFLD is significantly associated with an increased risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. However, the observational design of the studies included does not allow us to prove that NAFLD causes cardiovascular disease. Clinicians who manage patients with NAFLD should not focus only on liver disease but should also consider the increased risk of cardiovascular disease and undertake early, aggressive risk factor modification.

The impact of debris on marine life

Marine debris is listed among the major perceived threats to biodiversity, and is cause for particular concern due to its abundance, durability and persistence in the marine environment. An extensive literature search reviewed the current state of knowledge on the effects of marine debris on marine organisms. 340 original publications reported encounters between organisms and marine debris and 693 species. Plastic debris accounted for 92% of encounters between debris and individuals. Numerous direct and indirect consequences were recorded, with the potential for sublethal effects of ingestion an area of considerable uncertainty and concern. Comparison to the IUCN Red List highlighted that at least 17% of species affected by entanglement and ingestion were listed as threatened or near threatened. Hence where marine debris combines with other anthropogenic stressors it may affect populations, trophic interactions and assemblages.

Epidemiology of pancreatic cancer

Cancer of the pancreas remains one of the deadliest cancer types. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2012 estimates, pancreatic cancer causes more than 331000 deaths per year, ranking as the seventh leading cause of cancer death in both sexes together. Globally, about 338000 people had pancreatic cancer in 2012, making it the 11th most common cancer. The highest incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer are found in developed countries. Trends for pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality varied considerably in the world. A known cause of pancreatic cancer is tobacco smoking. This risk factor is likely to explain some of the international variations and gender differences. The overall five-year survival rate is about 6% (ranges from 2% to 9%), but this vary very small between developed and developing countries. To date, the causes of pancreatic cancer are still insufficiently known, although certain risk factors have been identified, such as smoking, obesity, genetics, diabetes, diet, inactivity. There are no current screening recommendations for pancreatic cancer, so primary prevention is of utmost importance. A better understanding of the etiology and identifying the risk factors is essential for the primary prevention of this disease.