1
|
Carry-Over Effects of Climate Variability at Breeding and Non-Breeding Grounds on Spring Migration in the European Wren Troglodytes troglodytes at the Baltic Coast. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:2015. [PMID: 37370525 DOI: 10.3390/ani13122015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2023] [Revised: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Many studies have linked changes in avian phenology in Europe to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which serves as a proxy for conditions in western Europe. However, the effects of climate variation in other regions of Europe on the phenology of short-distance migrants with large non-breeding grounds remain unclear. We determined the combined influence of large-scale climate indices, NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCAND), during the preceding year on spring migration timing of European wren at the southern Baltic coast during 1982-2021. We modelled the effects of these climate variables on the entire passage and subsequent percentiles of the wren's passage at Bukowo-Kopań and Hel ringing stations. Over 1982-2021, the start and median of migration shifted earlier at Hel, but the end of passage shifted later at both stations. In effect, the duration of passage at Hel was extended by 7.6 days. Early passage at Hel was related with high MOI in spring and the preceding autumn. Spring passage at Bukowo-Kopań was delayed after high NAO in the previous breeding season, and high winter and spring NAO. Late spring passage occurred at both stations following a high SCAND in the previous summer. At both locations, an early start or median of passage followed high local temperatures. We conclude that phenology of the wren's spring migration at the Baltic coast was shaped by conditions encountered at wintering quarters in western Europe, where NAO operates, and in the south-eastern Europe, where the MOI operates, in conjunction with conditions in Scandinavia during the previous breeding season. We demonstrated that climate variability in various parts of the migrants' range has combined carry-over effects on in migrants' phenology in Europe.
Collapse
|
2
|
North-south antiphase of wildfire activity across the pyroregions of continental China driven by NAO and the Antarctic oscillation. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 859:160386. [PMID: 36427739 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2022] [Revised: 11/16/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires are a natural disturbance in many parts of the world, but fire regimes are changing as a result of anthropogenic pressures. A key uncertainty towards anticipating future changes in burned area lies in understanding the effects of climate teleconnections (CTs). Here we test how different CTs impact burned area in China, a large country comprising different biomes and where similar fire-suppression and post-fire afforestation policies are implemented. We observed diverging temporal trends in burned area across the different pyroregions of China, from increases in the Northeastern grasslands and mixed forests pyroregion to decreases in the Southern tropical forests pyroregion. This North-South antiphase in fire activity was being partly driven by joint effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Antarctic Oscillation, which exerted contrasting effects on fire weather across latitude. El Niño Southern Oscillation and the other examined teleconnections had minor effects over burned area. The increasing burned area in the NE-mixed forests pyroregion indicates that mega-fires may increase under global warming but their occurrence may be modulated by potential strengthening or weakening of NAO and AAO.
Collapse
|
3
|
[Follow control of upper limb rehabilitation training based on Kinect and NAO robot]. SHENG WU YI XUE GONG CHENG XUE ZA ZHI = JOURNAL OF BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING = SHENGWU YIXUE GONGCHENGXUE ZAZHI 2022; 39:1189-1198. [PMID: 36575089 PMCID: PMC9927177 DOI: 10.7507/1001-5515.202111009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2021] [Revised: 10/29/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Gesture imitation is a common rehabilitation strategy in limb rehabilitation training. In traditional rehabilitation training, patients need to complete training actions under the guidance of rehabilitation physicians. However, due to the limited resources of the hospital, it cannot meet the training and guidance needs of all patients. In this paper, we proposed a following control method based on Kinect and NAO robot for the gesture imitation task in rehabilitation training. The method realized the joint angles mapping from Kinect coordination to NAO robot coordination through inverse kinematics algorithm. Aiming at the deflection angle estimation problem of the elbow joint, a virtual space plane was constructed and realized the accurate estimation of deflection angle. Finally, a comparative experiment for deflection angle of the elbow joint angle was conducted. The experimental results showed that the root mean square error of the angle estimation value of this method in right elbow transverse deflection and vertical deflection directions was 2.734° and 2.159°, respectively. It demonstrates that the method can follow the human movement in real time and stably using the NAO robot to show the rehabilitation training program for patients.
Collapse
|
4
|
Annual variation in breeding success in boreal forest grouse: Four decades of monitoring reveals bottom-up drivers to be more important than predation. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9327. [PMID: 36248675 PMCID: PMC9548575 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2022] [Revised: 07/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Knowledge of the temporal variation in reproductive success and its key driving factors is crucial in predicting animal population persistence. Few studies have examined the effects of a range of explanatory factors operating simultaneously on the same population over a long period. Based on 41 years of monitoring (1979–2019), we tested prevailing hypotheses about drivers of annual variation in breeding success in two sympatric species of boreal forest grouse—the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the black grouse (T. tetrix)—in a 45 km2 boreal forest landscape. From counts in early August, we measured breeding success (chicks/hen) along with potential determining factors. We formulated five main hypotheses on causes of variation (hen condition, chick weather, chick food, predation, demographic characteristics) and derived 13 associated explanatory variables for analysis. We first tested the five hypotheses separately and then used model selection (AICc) to rank the best predictive models irrespective of hypotheses. Lastly, we used path analysis to illuminate potential causal relationships. Barring demographic characteristics, all hypotheses were supported, most strongly for chick food and predation. Among predictor variables, chick food (insect larvae and bilberry fruit crops), vole and fox abundances, the winter‐NAO index, and temperature after hatching, had the strongest effect sizes in both species. Precipitation after hatching had no detectable effect. Model selection indicated bottom‐up factors to be more important than predation, but confounding complicated interpretation. Path analysis suggested that the high explanatory power of bilberry fruiting was due not only to its direct positive effect on chick food quality but also to an indirect positive effect on vole abundance, which buffers predation. The two components of breeding success—proportion of hens with broods and number of chicks per brood—were uncorrelated, the former having the strongest effect. The two components had different ecological correlates that often varied asynchronously, resulting in overall breeding success fluctuating around low to moderate levels. Our study highlights the complexity of key explanatory drivers and the importance of considering multiple hypotheses of breeding success. Although chick food appeared to equal or surpass predation in explaining the annual variation in breeding success, predation may still be the overall limiting factor. Comparative and experimental studies of confounded variables (bilberry fruiting, voles, and larvae) are needed to disentangle causes of variation in breeding success of boreal forest grouse.
Collapse
|
5
|
Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2022; 97:2174-2194. [PMID: 35942895 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Revised: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examining the relationship between the population dynamics of multiple taxa worldwide and the two most commonly used broad-scale climate indices, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our review and synthesis (based on 561 species from 221 papers) reveals that population changes of mammals, birds and insects are strongly affected by major oceanic shifts or irregular oceanic changes, particularly in ENSO- and NAO-influenced regions (Pacific and Atlantic, respectively), providing clear evidence supporting Elton's BSCH. Mammal and insect populations tended to increase during positive ENSO phases. Bird populations tended to increase in positive NAO phases. Some species showed dual associations with both positive and negative phases of the same climate index (ENSO or NAO). These findings indicate that some taxa or regions are more or less vulnerable to climate fluctuations and that some geographical areas show multiple weather effects related to ENSO or NAO phases. Beyond confirming that animal populations are influenced by broad-scale climate variation, we document extensive patterns of variation among taxa and observe that the direct biotic and abiotic mechanisms for these broad-scale climate factors affecting animal populations are very poorly understood. A practical implication of our research is that changes in ENSO or NAO can be used as early signals for pest management and wildlife conservation. We advocate integrative studies at both broad and local scales to unravel the omnipresent effects of climate on animal populations to help address the challenge of conserving biodiversity in this era of accelerated climate change.
Collapse
|
6
|
Climate in Africa sequentially shapes spring passage of Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus across the Baltic coast. PeerJ 2022; 10:e12964. [PMID: 35198263 PMCID: PMC8860065 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.12964] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many migrant birds have been returning to Europe earlier in spring since the 1980s. This has been attributed mostly to an earlier onset of spring in Europe, but we found the timing of Willow Warblers' passage to be influenced by climate indices for Africa as much as those for Europe. Willow Warblers' spring passage through northern Europe involves populations from different wintering quarters in Africa. We therefore expected that migration timing in the early, middle and late periods of spring would be influenced sequentially by climate indices operating in different parts of the winter range. METHODS Using data from daily mistnetting in 1 April-15 May over 1982-2017 at Bukowo (Poland, Baltic Sea coast), we derived an Annual Anomaly (AA, in days) of Willow Warbler spring migration. We decomposed this anomaly into three main periods (1-26 April, 27 April-5 May, 6-15 May); one-third of migrants in each period. We modelled three sequential time series of spring passage using calendar year and 15 large-scale climate indices averaged over the months of Willow Warblers' life stages in the year preceding spring migration as explanatory variables in multiple regression models. Nine climate variables were selected in the best models. We used these nine explanatory variables and calculated their partial correlations in models for nine overlapping sub-periods of AA. The pattern of relationships between AA in these nine sub-periods of spring and the nine climate variables indicated how spring passage had responded to the climate. We recommend this method for the study of birds' phenological responses to climate change. RESULTS The Southern Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole in Aug-Oct showed large partial correlations early in the passage, then faded in importance. For the Sahel Precipitation Index (PSAH) and Sahel Temperature Anomaly (TSAH) in Aug-Oct partial correlations occurred early then peaked in mid-passage; for PSAH (Nov-March) correlations peaked at the end of passage. NAO and local temperatures (April-May) showed low correlations till late April, which then increased. For the Scandinavian Index (Jun-Jul) partial correlations peaked in mid-passage. Year was not selected in any of the best models, indicating that the climate variables alone accounted for Willow Warblers' multiyear trend towards an earlier spring passage. DISCUSSION Climate indices for southern and eastern Africa dominated relationships in early spring, but western African indices dominated in mid- and late spring. We thus concluded that Willow Warblers wintering in southern and eastern Africa dominated early arrivals, but those from western Africa dominated later. We suggest that drivers of phenological shifts in avian migration are related to changes in climate at remote wintering grounds and at stopovers, operating with climate change in the north, especially for species with complex and long-distance migration patterns.
Collapse
|
7
|
Isolation and Phospholipid Enrichment of Muscle Mitochondria and Mitoplasts. Bio Protoc 2021; 11:e4201. [PMID: 34761073 PMCID: PMC8554811 DOI: 10.21769/bioprotoc.4201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2021] [Revised: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The efficient ATP production in mitochondria relies on the highly specific organization of its double membrane. Notably, the inner mitochondrial membrane (IMM) displays a massive surface extension through its folding into cristae, along which concentrate respiratory complexes and oligomers of the ATP synthase. Evidence has accumulated to highlight the importance of a specific phospholipid composition of the IMM to support mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation. Contribution of specific phospholipids to mitochondrial ATP production is classically studied by modulating the activity of enzymes involved in their synthesis, but the interconnection of phospholipid synthesis pathways often impedes the determination of the precise role of each phospholipid. Here, we describe a protocol to specifically enrich mitochondrial membranes with cardiolipin or phosphatidylcholine, as well as a fluorescence-based method to quantify phospholipid enrichment. This method, based on the fusion of lipid vesicles with isolated mitochondria, may further allow a precise evaluation of phospholipid contribution to mitochondrial functions.
Collapse
|
8
|
Smiles as a Signal of Prosocial Behaviors Toward the Robot in the Therapeutic Setting for Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder. Front Robot AI 2021; 8:599755. [PMID: 34124170 PMCID: PMC8187796 DOI: 10.3389/frobt.2021.599755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
We explored how robot-assisted therapy based on smile analysis may facilitate the prosocial behaviors of children with autism spectrum disorder. Prosocial behaviors, which are actions for the benefit of others, are required to belong to society and increase the quality of life. As smiling is a candidate for predicting prosocial behaviors in robot-assisted therapy, we measured smiles by annotating behaviors that were recorded with video cameras and by classifying facial muscle activities recorded with a wearable device. While interacting with a robot, the participants experienced two situations where participants' prosocial behaviors are expected, which were supporting the robot to walk and helping the robot from falling. We first explored the overall smiles at specific timings and prosocial behaviors. Then, we explored the smiles triggered by a robot and behavior changes before engaging in prosocial behaviors. The results show that the specific timing of smiles and prosocial behaviors increased in the second session of children with autism spectrum disorder. Additionally, a smile was followed by a series of behaviors before prosocial behavior. With a proposed Bayesian model, smiling, or heading predicted prosocial behaviors with higher accuracy compared to other variables. Particularly, voluntary prosocial behaviors were observed after smiling. The findings of this exploratory study imply that smiles might be a signal of prosocial behaviors. We also suggest a probabilistic model for predicting prosocial behaviors based on smile analysis, which could be applied to personalized robot-assisted therapy by controlling a robot's movements to arouse smiles and increase the probability that a child with autism spectrum disorder will engage in prosocial behaviors.
Collapse
|
9
|
Delayed warming in Northeast China: Insights from an annual temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring δ 18O. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 749:141432. [PMID: 32805438 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2020] [Revised: 07/09/2020] [Accepted: 07/31/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Global warming has had an unprecedented impact on environmental changes and thus human life in mid-high latitude regions. As one of the areas most affected by global warming, Northeast China has suffered from a series of ecological crises, including warming-induced water deficits, permafrost thaw, and extended growing seasons. The change in annual average temperature (annual T) variations in Northeast China since the Industrial Revolution are still not fully understood, mainly because of the lack of long-term instrumental data and high-resolution annual T reconstructions. Here, we present the first annual T reconstruction (r = -0.683, p < .001, n = 60) for 1818-2012 in Northeast China, which may also be the first temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring δ18O in China. The reconstruction is significantly related to temperature variations over mid-high latitude Eurasia and agree (p < .01) with several long-term hydroclimatic reconstructions in the surrounding area. When the internal variability in the reconstruction was high, the decadal to multidecadal cycles were significant. Further analysis found that the reconstruction was mainly affected by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The reconstruction was significantly negatively correlated with several time series of annual T in the Northern Hemisphere, which showed that there is a substantial difference in annual T between Northeast China and other regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The difference mainly existed before the 1950s. From the 1850s to the 1950s, the annual T in Northeast China decreased slightly. However, extreme warming began in the 1950s in Northeast China, and this warming has been unprecedented during the past two centuries. If the warming trend since the 1950s continues, then it will lead to devastating disasters to forest and permafrost ecosystems in Northeast China.
Collapse
|
10
|
Implementation of Laplace Transformed MP2 for Periodic Systems With Numerical Atomic Orbitals. Front Chem 2020; 8:589992. [PMID: 33240850 PMCID: PMC7683768 DOI: 10.3389/fchem.2020.589992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 09/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
We present an implementation of the canonical and Laplace-transformed formulation of the second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory under periodic boundary conditions using numerical atomic orbitals. To validate our approach, we show that our results of the Laplace-transformed MP2 correlation correction for the total energy and the band gap are in excellent agreement with the results of the canonical MP2 formulation. We have calculated the binding energy curve for the stacked trans-polyacetylene at the Hartree–Fock + MP2 level as a preliminary application.
Collapse
|
11
|
Exploring causal components of plasticity in grey seal birthdates: Effects of intrinsic traits, demography, and climate. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:11507-11522. [PMID: 33144980 PMCID: PMC7593198 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Revised: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 07/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Change in breeding phenology is often a response to environmental forcing, but less is known of the mechanism underlying such changes and their fitness consequences. Here, we report on changes in the breeding phenology from a 27-year longitudinal study (1991-2017) of individually marked, known-aged grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada. We used generalized linear mixed models and a 3-step process to develop a model that includes interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic covariates and to test hypotheses about the influence of fixed factors (maternal age, parity, previous reproductive success, pup sex, colony density, Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Sea Surface Temperature) and a random factor (female identity) on parturition dates. We also examined the consequences of the shift in birthdates on maternal energy allocation in offspring as measured by pup weaning mass. Birthdates were known for 2,768 pups of 660 known-age females. For 494 females with ≥2 parturition dates, repeatability as measured by the intraclass correlation was high (mean = 0.66). 87% of the variation in birthdates was explained by a mixed-effects model that included intrinsic and extrinsic fixed effects. Most of the explained variation was associated with the random effect of female identity. Parity was the most important intrinsic fixed effect, with inexperienced mothers giving birth later in the season than multiparous females. Over almost 3 decades, mean birthdates advanced by 15 days. The mixed model with intrinsic effects and population size, the detrended AMO from the previous year and mean NAO in the previous 3 years explained 80% of the variation with 21% of variation from the fixed effects. Both primiparous and multiparous individuals responded to the climate forcing, and there was strong evidence for heterogeneity in the response. Nevertheless, the shift in birthdates did not impact pup weaning mass.
Collapse
|
12
|
Abstract
Physical exercise has many physical, psychological and social health benefits leading to improved life quality. This paper presents a robotic system developed as a personal coach for older adults aiming to motivate older adults to participate in physical activities. The robot instructs the participants, demonstrates the exercises and provides real-time corrective and positive feedback according to the participant’s performance as monitored by an RGB-D camera. Two robotic systems based on two different humanoid robots (Nao, toy-like and Poppy, mechanical-like) were developed and implemented using the Python programming language. Experimental studies with 32 older adults were conducted, to determine the preferable mode and timing of the feedback provided to the user to accommodate user preferences, motivate the users and improve their interaction with the system. Additionally, user preferences with regards to the two different humanoid robots used were explored. The results revealed that the system motivated the older adults to engage more in physical exercises. The type and timing of feedback influenced this engagement. Most of these older adults also perceived the system as very useful, easy to use, had a positive attitude towards the system and noted their intention to use it. Most users preferred the more mechanical looking robot (Poppy) over the toy-like robot (Nao).
Collapse
|
13
|
Cohort antler size signals environmental stress in a moderate climate. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2020; 64:611-621. [PMID: 31900588 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01850-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2018] [Revised: 12/16/2019] [Accepted: 12/20/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Research in northern latitudes confirms that climate teleconnections exert important influences on ungulate fitness, but studies from regions with milder climates are lacking. We explored the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on male, 2.5-year-old white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) antler and body mass in Mississippi, USA, a region with mild winters and warm, humid summers. Explanatory variables were seasonal averages of each climate index extending back to 3 years prior to account for possible maternal and lag effects. Seasonal climate indices from the period of gestation and the first year of life were correlated with deer morphometrics. Reduced antler mass was largely correlated (R2 = 0.52) with PDO values indicating dry conditions during parturition and neonatal development and NAO values indicating warmer than normal winters during gestation and the first year of life. Body mass was less correlated (R2 = 0.16) to climate indices, responding negatively to warmer winter weather during the first winter of life. Climate may promote variable fitness among cohorts through long-term effects on male competition for dominance and breeding access. Because broad-scale climate indices simplify complex weather systems, they may benefit management at larger scales. Although this study compared climate with morphological variables, it is likely that demographic characteristics can likewise be modeled using climate indices. As climate change in this region is projected to include greater variability in summer precipitation, we may see concomitantly greater variability in fitness among cohorts of white-tailed deer.
Collapse
|
14
|
[Monocentric experience of left atrial appendage occlusion among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease and non-valvular atrial fibrillation]. GIORNALE ITALIANO DI NEFROLOGIA : ORGANO UFFICIALE DELLA SOCIETA ITALIANA DI NEFROLOGIA 2020; 37:37-01-2020-9. [PMID: 32068363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Atrial fibrillation is the most common cardiac disorder among chronic nephropathic patients. Possible therapeutic approaches include the use of anticoagulants, which are able to reduce the risk of thromboembolism but lead to an increasing bleeding risk, especially in this cohort of patients. Also, novel oral anticoagulant agents (NAO), due to their mainly renal clearance, are a relative contraindication in advanced renal disease. As an alternative to the oral anticoagulant therapy, left atrial appendage occlusion seems a promising opportunity in high risk, difficult to manage patients. Since there is limited evidence of LAAO in advanced chronic renal disease or dialysis patients, we report here a monocenter experience on 12 patients (6 of which in regular dialytic treatment) with a median clinical follow-up of fourteen months (3-22 months).
Collapse
|
15
|
Parasite prevalence increases with temperature in an avian metapopulation in northern Norway. Parasitology 2019; 146:1030-1035. [PMID: 30977457 DOI: 10.1017/s0031182019000337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Climate and weather conditions may have substantial effects on the ecology of both parasites and hosts in natural populations. The strength and shape of the effects of weather on parasites and hosts are likely to change as global warming affects local climate. These changes may in turn alter fundamental elements of parasite-host dynamics. We explored the influence of temperature and precipitation on parasite prevalence in a metapopulation of avian hosts in northern Norway. We also investigated if annual change in parasite prevalence was related to winter climate, as described by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We found that parasite prevalence increased with temperature within-years and decreased slightly with increasing precipitation. We also found that a mild winter (positive winter NAO index) was associated with higher mean parasite prevalence the following year. Our results indicate that both local and large scale weather conditions may affect the proportion of hosts that become infected by parasites in natural populations. Understanding the effect of climate and weather on parasite-host relationships in natural populations is vital in order to predict the full consequence of global warming.
Collapse
|
16
|
Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet's sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:1934-1939. [PMID: 30670639 PMCID: PMC6369742 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1806562116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
The recent deglaciation of Greenland is a response to both oceanic and atmospheric forcings. From 2000 to 2010, ice loss was concentrated in the southeast and northwest margins of the ice sheet, in large part due to the increasing discharge of marine-terminating outlet glaciers, emphasizing the importance of oceanic forcing. However, the largest sustained (∼10 years) acceleration detected by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) occurred in southwest Greenland, an area largely devoid of such glaciers. The sustained acceleration and the subsequent, abrupt, and even stronger deceleration were mostly driven by changes in air temperature and solar radiation. Continued atmospheric warming will lead to southwest Greenland becoming a major contributor to sea level rise. From early 2003 to mid-2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at a progressively increasing rate. In mid-2013, an abrupt reversal occurred, and very little net ice loss occurred in the next 12–18 months. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations reveal that the spatial patterns of the sustained acceleration and the abrupt deceleration in mass loss are similar. The strongest accelerations tracked the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative phase of the NAO enhances summertime warming and insolation while reducing snowfall, especially in west Greenland, driving surface mass balance (SMB) more negative, as illustrated using the regional climate model MAR. The spatial pattern of accelerating mass changes reflects the geography of NAO-driven shifts in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to that forcing. We infer that southwest Greenland will become a major future contributor to sea level rise.
Collapse
|
17
|
NAO robot for cooperative rehabilitation training. J Rehabil Assist Technol Eng 2019; 6:2055668319862151. [PMID: 31413864 PMCID: PMC6676265 DOI: 10.1177/2055668319862151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2019] [Accepted: 06/10/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The aim of this research is to develop a robot-assistive training approach for the disabled individuals with impaired upper limb functions. People with impaired upper limb function can regain their motor functionality undergoing intense rehabilitation exercises. With increasing number of disabled individuals, we face deficiency in the number of expert therapists. One promising remedy could be the use of robotic assistive devices. METHOD To instruct and demonstrate rehabilitation exercise, this research used NAO robot. A library of recommended rehabilitation exercises involving shoulder (i.e., abduction/adduction, vertical flexion/extension, and internal/external rotation), and elbow (i.e., flexion/extension) joint movements was formed in Choregraphe (graphical programming interface). For this purpose, a kinematic model of human upper-extremity was developed based on modified Denavit-Hartenberg notations. RESULT In experiments, NAO robot gave voice instruction and was maneuvered to cooperate and demonstrate the exercises from the library. NAO also plays some complex game with the subject that represents a multi-joint movement's exercise, which was also included in the library. CONCLUSIONS Experimental results with healthy participants reveal that the NAO robot can successfully instruct and demonstrate upper-extremity rehabilitation exercises for single and multi-joint movements. It implies a technical development of cooperative rehabilitation system for which target group will be individuals with upper limb impairment.
Collapse
|
18
|
Predictability of European winter 2016/2017. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS : ASL 2018; 19:e868. [PMID: 31191171 PMCID: PMC6555434 DOI: 10.1002/asl.868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2018] [Revised: 10/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/13/2018] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Winter 2016/2017 was one of the driest on record for central Europe and the United Kingdom. This was the result of blocked atmospheric circulation with high pressure centred over North-West Europe dominating the winter mean circulation pattern. Using large ensembles of simulated winters, we find that the observed winter 2016/2017 circulation was very similar in pattern and strength to the circulation associated with the top 10% of driest Central European winters. Here, we explore whether seasonal forecasts were able to predict this circulation pattern. Despite the fact that the observed circulation anomaly did not project on to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we find that forecasts starting in November did predict a high-pressure anomaly over North-Western Europe. We use two independent data sets, and methods, to probe the drivers of this circulation pattern. We find evidence for a Rossby Wave propagating out of the tropical Atlantic where there were anomalous local rainfall anomalies. This case study is another example of real-time seasonal forecast skill for Europe and provides evidence for predictability beyond the NAO pattern.
Collapse
|
19
|
Enhanced Cytotoxic Activity of Mitochondrial Mechanical Effectors in Human Lung Carcinoma H520 Cells: Pharmaceutical Implications for Cancer Therapy. Front Oncol 2018; 8:514. [PMID: 30483474 PMCID: PMC6242888 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2018.00514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2018] [Accepted: 10/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Cancer cell mitochondria represent an attractive target for oncological treatment as they have unique hallmarks that differ from their healthy counterparts, as the presence of a stronger membrane potential that can be exploited to specifically accumulate cytotoxic cationic molecules. Here, we explore the selective cytotoxic effect of 10-N-nonyl acridine orange (NAO) on human lung carcinoma H520 cells and compare them with healthy human lung primary fibroblasts. NAO is a lipophilic and positively charged molecule that promotes mitochondrial membrane adhesion that eventually leads to apoptosis when incubated at high micromolar concentration. We found an enhanced cytotoxicity of NAO in H520 cancer cells. By means Fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) we also confirmed the formation of H-dimeric aggregates originating from opposing adjacent membranes that interfere with the mitochondrial membrane structure. Based on our results, we suggest the mitochondrial membrane as a potential target in cancer therapy to mechanically control the cell proliferation of cancer cells.
Collapse
|
20
|
Understanding linkages between global climate indices and terrestrial water storage changes over Africa using GRACE products. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 635:1405-1416. [PMID: 29710593 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2018] [Revised: 04/11/2018] [Accepted: 04/11/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Africa, a continent endowed with huge water resources that sustain its agricultural activities is increasingly coming under threat from impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods), which puts the very precious water resource into jeopardy. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and water storage over the continent, therefore, is paramount in order to inform future water management strategies. This study employs Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the higher order (fourth order cumulant) statistical independent component analysis (ICA) method to study the relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and five global climate-teleconnection indices; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over Africa for the period 2003-2014. Pearson correlation analysis is applied to extract the connections between these climate indices (CIs) and TWS, from which some known strong CI-rainfall relationships (e.g., over equatorial eastern Africa) are found. Results indicate unique linear-relationships and regions that exhibit strong linkages between CIs and TWS. Moreover, unique regions having strong CI-TWS connections that are completely different from the typical ENSO-rainfall connections over eastern and southern Africa are also identified. Furthermore, the results indicate that the first dominant independent components (IC) of the CIs are linked to NAO, and are characterized by significant reductions of TWS over southern Africa. The second dominant ICs are associated with IOD and are characterized by significant increases in TWS over equatorial eastern Africa, while the combined ENSO and MJO are apparently linked to the third ICs, which are also associated with significant increase in TWS changes over both southern Africa, as well as equatorial eastern Africa.
Collapse
|
21
|
Supramolecular zippers elicit interbilayer adhesion of membranes producing cell death. Biochim Biophys Acta Gen Subj 2018; 1862:2824-2834. [PMID: 30251671 PMCID: PMC6202437 DOI: 10.1016/j.bbagen.2018.08.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2018] [Revised: 08/03/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Background The fluorescent dye 10-N-nonyl acridine orange (NAO) is widely used as a mitochondrial marker. NAO was reported to have cytotoxic effects in cultured eukaryotic cells when incubated at high concentrations. Although the biochemical response of NAO-induced toxicity has been well identified, the underlying molecular mechanism has not yet been explored in detail. Methods We use optical techniques, including fluorescence confocal microscopy and lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) both in model membranes built up as giant unilamellar vesicles (GUVs) and cultured cells. These experiments are complemented with computational studies to unravel the molecular mechanism that makes NAO cytotoxic. Results We have obtained direct evidence that NAO promotes strong membrane adhesion of negatively charged vesicles. The attractive forces are derived from van der Waals interactions between anti-parallel H-dimers of NAO molecules from opposing bilayers. Semi-empirical calculations have confirmed the supramolecular scenario by which anti-parallel NAO molecules form a zipper of bonds at the contact region. The membrane remodeling effect of NAO, as well as the formation of H-dimers, was also confirmed in cultured fibroblasts, as shown by the ultrastructure alteration of the mitochondrial cristae. Conclusions We conclude that membrane adhesion induced by NAO stacking accounts for the supramolecular basis of its cytotoxicity. General significance Mitochondria are a potential target for cancer and gene therapies. The alteration of the mitochondrial structure by membrane remodeling agents able to form supramolecular assemblies via adhesion properties could be envisaged as a new therapeutic strategy. NAO promotes interbilayer adhesion of negatively charged lipid vesicles. Membrane adhesion derives from the self-assembly of NAO into antiparallel H-dimers. The adhesion strength promoted by antiparallel H-aggregates is 10−6 J/m2. The formation of NAO H-aggregates produces cell death in fibroblasts. The molecular mechanism of NAO cytotoxicity relies on the adhesion ability of H-dimers.
Collapse
|
22
|
WRF 1960-2014 Winter Season Simulations of Particulate Matter in the Sahel: Implications for Air Quality and Respiratory Health. GEOHEALTH 2018; 2:248-260. [PMID: 32159017 PMCID: PMC7007090 DOI: 10.1002/2018gh000132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2018] [Revised: 04/12/2018] [Accepted: 04/13/2018] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
We use the Weather Research and Forecast model using the Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) dust module (WRF-CHEM) to simulate the particulate matter (PM) variations in the Sahel during the winter seasons (January-March) of 1960-2014. Two simulations are undertaken where the direct aerosol feedback is turned off, and only transport is considered and where the direct aerosol feedback is turned on. We find that simulated Sahelian PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were lower in the 1960s and after 2003 and higher during the period between 1988 and 2002. Higher Sahelian PM10 concentrations are due to stronger winds between the surface and 925 hPa over the Sahara, which transport dust into the Sahel. Negative PM10 concentration anomalies are found over the Bodele Depression and associated with weaker 925 wind anomalies after 1997 through 2014. Further west, positive PM10 concentration anomalies are found across the Adrar Plateau in the Sahara and responsible for dust transport to the Western Sahel. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is positively correlated to Sahelian dust concentrations especially during the periods of 1960-1970 and 1988-2002. The temporal/spatial patterns of PM10 concentrations have significant respiratory health implications for inhabitants of the Sahel.
Collapse
|
23
|
Multi-scale approach to Euro-Atlantic climatic cycles based on phenological time series, air temperatures and circulation indexes. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2017; 593-594:253-262. [PMID: 28346899 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.182] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2016] [Revised: 03/07/2017] [Accepted: 03/20/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The spectral periods in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were analyzed and has been verified how they imprint a time series of European temperature anomalies (ETA), two European temperature time series and some phenological series (dates of cherry flowering and grapevine harvest). Such work had as reference scenario the linear causal chain MCTP (Macroscale Circulation→Temperature→Phenology of crops) that links oceanic and atmospheric circulation to surface air temperature which in its turn determines the earliness of appearance of phenological phases of plants. Results show that in the three segments of the MCTP causal chain are present cycles with the following central period in years (the % of the 12 analyzed time series interested by these cycles are in brackets): 65 (58%), 24 (58%), 20.5 (58%), 13.5 (50%), 11.5 (58%), 7.7 (75%), 5.5 (58%), 4.1 (58%), 3 (50%), 2.4 (67%). A comparison with short term spectral peaks of the four El Niño regions (nino1+2, nino3, nino3.4 and nino4) show that 10 of the 12 series are imprinted by periods around 2.3-2.4yr while 50-58% of the series are imprinted by El Niño periods of 4-4.2, 3.8-3.9, 3-3.1years. The analysis highlights the links among physical and biological variables of the climate system at scales that range from macro to microscale whose knowledge is crucial to reach a suitable understanding of the ecosystem behavior. The spectral analysis was also applied to a time series of spring - summer precipitation in order to evaluate the presence of peaks common with other 12 selected series with result substantially negative which brings us to rule out the existence of a linear causal chain MCPP (Macroscale Circulation→Precipitation→Phenology).
Collapse
|
24
|
Two-Year Sustained Benefit of an Absorbable Implant for the Treatment of NVC. OTO Open 2017; 1:2473974X17722982. [PMID: 30480191 PMCID: PMC6239033 DOI: 10.1177/2473974x17722982] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2017] [Revised: 06/21/2017] [Accepted: 07/07/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
|
25
|
Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 2017; 240-241:35-45. [PMID: 28626277 PMCID: PMC5465944 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.03.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2016] [Revised: 03/22/2017] [Accepted: 03/27/2017] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.
Collapse
|
26
|
Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability. PeerJ 2017; 5:e2957. [PMID: 28168119 PMCID: PMC5292026 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.2957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2016] [Accepted: 01/04/2017] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.
Collapse
|
27
|
Influence of long-range atmospheric transport pathways and climate teleconnection patterns on the variability of surface 210Pb and 7Be concentrations in southwestern Europe. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY 2016; 165:103-114. [PMID: 27676361 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2016.09.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2016] [Revised: 09/14/2016] [Accepted: 09/17/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The variability of the atmospheric concentration of the 7Be and 210Pb radionuclides is strongly linked to the origin of air masses, the strength of their sources and the processes of wet and dry deposition. It has been shown how these processes and their variability are strongly affected by climate change. Thus, a deeper knowledge of the relationship between the atmospheric radionuclides variability measured close to the ground and these atmospheric processes could help in the analysis of climate scenarios. In the present study, we analyze the atmospheric variability of a 14-year time series of 7Be and 210Pb in a Mediterranean coastal city using a synergy of different indicators and tools such as: the local meteorological conditions, global and regional climate indexes and a lagrangian atmospheric transport model. We particularly focus on the relationships between the main pathways of air masses and sun spots occurrence, the variability of the local relative humidity and temperature conditions, and the main modes of regional climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). The variability of the observed atmospheric concentrations of both 7Be and 210Pb radionuclides was found to be mainly positively associated to the local climate conditions of temperature and to the pathways of air masses arriving at the station. Measured radionuclide concentrations significantly increase when air masses travel at low tropospheric levels from central Europe and the western part of the Iberian Peninsula, while low concentrations are associated with westerly air masses. We found a significant negative correlation between the WeMO index and the atmospheric variability of both radionuclides and no significant association was observed for the NAO index.
Collapse
|
28
|
Climate influence on juvenile European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, L.) populations in an estuarine nursery: A decadal overview. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2016; 122:93-104. [PMID: 27720527 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2016.09.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2016] [Revised: 09/26/2016] [Accepted: 09/27/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Estuarine systems support the life cycle stages of commercially important marine fish and are influenced by large and local-scale climatic patterns. In this study, performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, we used an 11-year database (2003-2013) for analyzing the variability in the population of a marine juvenile migrant fish, the European sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax, regarding changes in abundance, population structure, growth rates, secondary production and annual day of peak abundance. Higher densities and production occurred in 2003, but no differences in 0-group growth could be observed. In order to detect change points in both biological and climatic data, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of the deviations from the mean for the 2003-2013 period were determined for each parameter. The relationship between large and local-scale drivers and 0-group biological attributes were evaluated using a Spearman rank correlation analysis of CUSUM of biological and environmental data, considering the correspondent yearly values and with a time-lag of 1 year. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, sea surface temperature (SST) and their respective winter values were tested as large-scale factors, while river runoff, salinity and estuarine water temperature were considered as local climate patterns. The significant factors explaining D. labrax 0-group abundance and production were salinity and the NAO, the latter being also a significant predictor considering the 1-year lag. The NAO with 1-year lag was also positively correlated with the day of peak abundance. The early stages of European sea bass were demonstrated to have a climate-dependent life cycle, controlled by variations in both large-scale climatic patterns and local features. In southern European marine populations, the effects of the NAO seem less direct, and dependent on the magnitude of its expressions and on the time scale considered.
Collapse
|
29
|
Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2016; 120:103-110. [PMID: 27494188 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2016.07.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2016] [Revised: 07/15/2016] [Accepted: 07/25/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary.
Collapse
|
30
|
The North Atlantic Oscillation system and plant phenology. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2016; 60:749-756. [PMID: 26431699 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-015-1070-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2015] [Revised: 09/21/2015] [Accepted: 09/22/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
The onset of flowering in 78 wild and domesticated terrestrial plant species recorded in South Moravia (Czech Republic) from 1965 to 2014 was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the preceding winter. Flowering occurred significantly earlier following positive winter NAO phases (causing spring to be warmer than normal in Central Europe) in nearly all early-flowering (March, April) species; high Pearson correlation values were recorded in, e.g., goat willow, spring snowflake, golden bell, cornelian cherry, sweet violet, cherry plum, grape hyacinth, apricot, blackthorn, common dandelion, cherry, southern magnolia, common apple, cuckoo flower, European bird cherry, and cherry laurel. In contrast, the timing of later-flowering plant species (May to July) did not correlate significantly with the winter NAO index. It was found that local temperature is obviously a proximate factor of plant phenology, while the winter NAO is the ultimate factor, affecting temperature and other meteorological phenomena in Central Europe during spring season.
Collapse
|
31
|
Earlier breeding, lower success: does the spatial scale of climatic conditions matter in a migratory passerine bird? Ecol Evol 2016; 5:5722-34. [PMID: 27069620 PMCID: PMC4813123 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2015] [Revised: 09/28/2015] [Accepted: 10/19/2015] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Following over 20 years of research on the climatic effects on biodiversity we now have strong evidence that climate change affects phenology, fitness, and distribution ranges of different taxa, including birds. Bird phenology likely responds to changes in local weather. It is also affected by climatic year‐to‐year variations on larger scales. Although such scale‐related effects are common in ecology, most studies analyzing the effects of climate change were accomplished using climatic information on a single spatial scale. In this study, we aimed at determining the scale‐dependent sensitivity of breeding phenology and success to climate change in a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica). For both annual broods, we investigated effects of local weather (local scale) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, large scale) on the timing of breeding and breeding success. Consistent with previous studies in migratory birds we found that barn swallows in Eastern Germany bred progressively earlier. At the same time, they showed reduced breeding success over time in response to recent climatic changes. Responses to climatic variation were observed on both local and large climatic scales, but they differed with respect to the ecological process considered. Specifically, we found that the timing of breeding was primarily influenced by large‐scale NAO variations and to a lesser extent by local weather on the breeding grounds. Conversely, climatic conditions on the local scale affected breeding success, exclusively. The observed decrease in breeding success over years is likely a consequence of scale‐related mismatches between climatic conditions during different breeding phases. This provides further evidence that a species' response of earlier breeding may not be enough to cope with climate change. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the response of ecological processes along different climatic scales in order to better understand the complexity of climate change effects on biodiversity.
Collapse
|
32
|
Are there statistical links between the direction of European weather systems and ENSO, the solar cycle or stratospheric aerosols? ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2016; 3:150320. [PMID: 26998314 PMCID: PMC4785965 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.150320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2015] [Accepted: 01/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
The Hess Brezowsky Großwetterlagen (HBGWL) European weather classification system, accumulated over a long period (more than 130 years), provides a rare opportunity to examine the impact of various factors on regional atmospheric flow. We have used these data to examine changes in the frequency (days/month) of given weather systems direction (WSD) during peak phases in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), solar cycle (SC) and peaks in stratospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) with superposed epoch analysis and Monte Carlo significance testing. We found highly significant responses to the NAO consistent with expectations: this signal confirmed the utility of the HBGWL data for this type of analysis and provided a benchmark of a clear response. WSD changes associated with ENSO, SC and AOD were generally within the ranges expected from random samples. When seasonal restrictions were added the results were similar, however, we found one clearly significant result: an increase in southerly flow of 2.6±0.8 days/month (p=1.9×10(-4)) during boreal summertime in association with El Niño. This result supports the existence of a robust teleconnection between the ENSO and European weather.
Collapse
|
33
|
Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:604-612. [PMID: 26386263 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2015] [Revised: 09/07/2015] [Accepted: 09/08/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales.
Collapse
|
34
|
Shifts in coral reef biogeochemistry and resulting acidification linked to offshore productivity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015; 112:14512-7. [PMID: 26553977 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1507021112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) has acidified open-ocean surface waters by 0.1 pH units since preindustrial times. Despite unequivocal evidence of ocean acidification (OA) via open-ocean measurements for the past several decades, it has yet to be documented in near-shore and coral reef environments. A lack of long-term measurements from these environments restricts our understanding of the natural variability and controls of seawater CO2-carbonate chemistry and biogeochemistry, which is essential to make accurate predictions on the effects of future OA on coral reefs. Here, in a 5-y study of the Bermuda coral reef, we show evidence that variations in reef biogeochemical processes drive interannual changes in seawater pH and Ωaragonite that are partly controlled by offshore processes. Rapid acidification events driven by shifts toward increasing net calcification and net heterotrophy were observed during the summers of 2010 and 2011, with the frequency and extent of such events corresponding to increased offshore productivity. These events also coincided with a negative winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which historically has been associated with extensive offshore mixing and greater primary productivity at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. Our results reveal that coral reefs undergo natural interannual events of rapid acidification due to shifts in reef biogeochemical processes that may be linked to offshore productivity and ultimately controlled by larger-scale climatic and oceanographic processes.
Collapse
|
35
|
Climate warming decreases the survival of the little auk (Alle alle), a high Arctic avian predator. Ecol Evol 2014; 4:3127-38. [PMID: 25247069 PMCID: PMC4161185 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2014] [Revised: 06/07/2014] [Accepted: 06/14/2014] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Delayed maturity, low fecundity, and high adult survival are traits typical for species with a long-life expectancy. For such species, even a small change in adult survival can strongly affect the population dynamics and viability. We examined the effects of both regional and local climatic variability on adult survival of the little auk, a long-lived and numerous Arctic seabird species. We conducted a mark-resighting study for a period of 8 years (2006-2013) simultaneously at three little auk breeding sites that are influenced by the West Spitsbergen Current, which is the main carrier of warm, Atlantic water into the Arctic. We found that the survival of adult little auks was negatively correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and local summer sea surface temperature (SST), with a time lag of 2 and 1 year, respectively. The effects of NAO and SST were likely mediated through a change in food quality and/or availability: (1) reproduction, growth, and development of Arctic Calanus copepods, the main prey of little auks, are negatively influenced by a reduction in sea ice, reduced ice algal production, and an earlier but shorter lasting spring bloom, all of which result from an increased NAO; (2) a high sea surface temperature shortens the reproductive period of Arctic Calanus, decreasing the number of eggs produced. A synchronous variation in survival rates at the different colonies indicates that climatic forcing was similar throughout the study area. Our findings suggest that a predicted warmer climate in the Arctic will negatively affect the population dynamics of the little auk, a high Arctic avian predator.
Collapse
|
36
|
Multi-decadal range changes vs. thermal adaptation for north east Atlantic oceanic copepods in the face of climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2014; 20:140-146. [PMID: 24323534 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2013] [Revised: 08/20/2013] [Accepted: 08/22/2013] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Populations may potentially respond to climate change in various ways including moving to new areas or alternatively staying where they are and adapting as conditions shift. Traditional laboratory and mesocosm experiments last days to weeks and thus only give a limited picture of thermal adaptation, whereas ocean warming occurring over decades allows the potential for selection of new strains better adapted to warmer conditions. Evidence for adaptation in natural systems is equivocal. We used a 50-year time series comprising of 117 056 samples in the NE Atlantic, to quantify the abundance and distribution of two particularly important and abundant members of the ocean plankton (copepods of the genus Calanus) that play a key trophic role for fisheries. Abundance of C. finmarchicus, a cold-water species, and C. helgolandicus, a warm-water species, were negatively and positively related to sea surface temperature (SST) respectively. However, the abundance vs. SST relationships for neither species changed over time in a manner consistent with thermal adaptation. Accompanying the lack of evidence for thermal adaptation there has been an unabated range contraction for C. finmarchicus and range expansion for C. helgolandicus. Our evidence suggests that thermal adaptation has not mitigated the impacts of ocean warming for dramatic range changes of these key species and points to continued dramatic climate induced changes in the biology of the oceans.
Collapse
|
37
|
Chronic hypoxia alters mitochondrial composition in human macrophages. BIOCHIMICA ET BIOPHYSICA ACTA-PROTEINS AND PROTEOMICS 2013; 1834:2750-60. [PMID: 24140568 DOI: 10.1016/j.bbapap.2013.09.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2013] [Revised: 09/17/2013] [Accepted: 09/29/2013] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Hypoxia inducible factors (HIFs) are important mediators of the cellular adaptive response during acute hypoxia. The role of HIF-1 and HIF-2 during prolonged periods of hypoxia, i.e. chronic hypoxia is less defined. Therefore, we used human THP-1 macrophages with a knockdown of either HIF-1α, HIF-2α, or both HIFα-subunits, incubated them for several days under hypoxia (1% O2), and analyzed responses to hypoxia using 2D-DIGE coupled to MS/MS-analysis. Chronic hypoxia was defined as a time point when the early but transient accumulation of HIFα-subunits and mRNA expression of classical HIF target genes returned towards basal levels, with a new steady state that was constant from 72h onwards. From roughly 800 spots, that were regulated comparing normoxia to chronic hypoxia, about 100 proteins were unambiguously assigned during MS/MS-analysis. Interestingly, a number of glycolytic proteins were up-regulated, while a number of inner mitochondrial membrane proteins were down-regulated independently of HIF-1α or HIF-2α. Chronic hypoxic conditions depleted the mitochondrial mass by autophagy, which occurred independently of HIF proteins. Macrophages tolerate periods of chronic hypoxia very well and adaptive responses occur, at least in part, independently of HIF-1α and/or HIF-2α and comprise mitophagy as a pathway of particular importance.
Collapse
|
38
|
Expression, purification and preliminary X-ray crystallographic analysis of nitroalkane oxidase ( NAO) from Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Acta Crystallogr Sect F Struct Biol Cryst Commun 2013; 69:888-90. [PMID: 23908035 PMCID: PMC3729166 DOI: 10.1107/s1744309113017235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2013] [Accepted: 06/21/2013] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Nitroalkane oxidase (NAO) is a flavin-dependent enzyme which catalyses the oxidation of nitroalkanes to the corresponding aldehydes or ketones, nitrite and hydrogen peroxide. In order to better understand the structure and function of this enzyme, NAO from Pseudomonas aeruginosa was purified and crystallized as a native and a selenomethionine-substituted (SeMet) enzyme. Both crystals diffracted to a resolution of 1.9 Å and belonged to the primitive orthorhombic space group P2₁, with unit-cell parameters a = 70.06, b = 55.43, c = 87.74 Å, β = 96.56° for native NAO and a = 69.89, b = 54.83, c = 88.20 Å, β = 95.79° for SeMet NAO. Assuming the presence of two molecules in the asymmetric unit in both crystals, the Matthews coefficients (VM) for native and SeMet NAO were calculated to be 2.30 and 2.48 ų Da⁻¹, with estimated solvent contents of 46.50 and 50.37%, respectively.
Collapse
|
39
|
Genistein modulates oxidative stress in breast cancer cell lines according to ERα/ERβ ratio: effects on mitochondrial functionality, sirtuins, uncoupling protein 2 and antioxidant enzymes. Int J Biochem Cell Biol 2013; 45:2045-51. [PMID: 23871935 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocel.2013.07.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2013] [Revised: 06/25/2013] [Accepted: 07/09/2013] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Genistein is a biologically active isoflavone with estrogenic activity and can be found in a variety of soy products. This natural compound displays a wide array of biological activities, but it is best known for its ability to inhibit cancer progression, especially for hormone-related ones such as breast cancer. Genistein has been shown to bind both the estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) and the estrogen receptor beta (ERβ), although it has a higher affinity for the ERβ. The ERα/ERβ ratio is a prognostic marker for breast tumors, and ERβ expression could indicate the presence of tumors more benign in state, whereas ERα indicates malignant tumors. The objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of genistein on oxidative stress and mitochondrial functionality through its interaction with the estrogen receptor in breast cancer cell lines with different ERα/ERβ ratios. The lower ERα/ERβ ratio T47D cell line showed lower oxidative stress and greater mitochondrial functionality, along with an up-regulation of uncoupling protein 2 and sirtuins. On the other hand, genistein-treated MCF-7 cell line, with the highest ERα/ERβ ratio, reported no changes for the control situation. On the whole, our results show different genistein effects depending on ERα/ERβ ratio for oxidative stress regulation, mitochondrial functionality, and modulation of UCPs, antioxidant enzymes and sirtuins in breast cancer cell lines. Effects of genistein on oxidative stress and mitochondria could be due at least in part, to a higher ERβ presence, but could also be due to up-regulation of ERβ caused by the genistein treatment.
Collapse
|
40
|
The inhibition of ferrochelatase enhances 5-aminolevulinic acid-based photodynamic action for prostate cancer. Photodiagnosis Photodyn Ther 2013; 10:399-409. [PMID: 24284092 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdpdt.2013.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2012] [Revised: 03/15/2013] [Accepted: 03/17/2013] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to clarify the mechanism of accumulation of 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA)-dependent protoporphyrin IX (PpIX), ALA-photodynamic therapy (PDT)-induced cell death and enhanced efficiency by a ferrochelatase inhibitor in prostate cancer PC-3 cells. METHODS The accumulation of ALA-induced PpIX in PC-3 cells was observed by fluorescence microscopy and measured by flow cytometry analysis. The efficiency of ALA-PDT was analyzed by flow cytometry and assessed by cell death, caspase-3 activity and mitochondrial membrane potential. The ALA-PDT-promoting effects of ferrochelatase inhibitors, such as deferoxamine and NOC-18, were also analyzed. We confirmed the results obtained in vivo with an animal model using nude mice. RESULTS ALA-induced PpIX accumulation increased in time- and ALA concentration-dependent manners. ALA-PDT decreased the levels of mitochondrial membrane potential, and induced cell death occurred by both apoptosis and necrosis. Inhibition of ferrochelatase by deferoxamine and NOC-18 led to increase of PpIX accumulation and enhanced effect of ALA-PDT in PC-3 cells. In vivo, the degeneration of tumor tissue by ALA-PDT was observed within a broader range and led to apoptosis and necrosis. CONCLUSION This study demonstrated ALA-PDT induced PC-3 cell death by the mechanisms of both necrosis and apoptosis through a caspase-independent mitochondrial pathway. Inhibition of ferrochelatase enhanced these effects, suggesting that ferrochelatase played an important role in ALA-PDT. ALA-PDT could be a new modality for focal therapy of prostate cancer.
Collapse
|
41
|
Are responses of herbivores to environmental variability spatially consistent in alpine ecosystems? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2012; 18:3050-3062. [PMID: 28741831 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02733.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2012] [Accepted: 04/17/2012] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Animal responses to global climate variation might be spatially inconsistent. This may arise from spatial variation in factors limiting populations' growth or from differences in the links between global climate patterns and ecologically relevant local climate variation. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a spatially consistent relation to temperature, but inconsistent spatial relation to snow depth in Scandinavia. Furthermore, there are multiple mechanistic ways by which climate may limit animal populations, involving both direct effects through thermoregulation and indirect pathways through trophic interactions. It is conceptually appealing to directly model the predicted mechanistic links. This includes the use of climate variables mimicking such interactions, for example, to use growing degree days (GDD) as a proxy for plant growth rather than average monthly temperature. Using a unique database of autumn body mass of 83331 domestic lambs from the period 1992-2007 in four alpine ranges in Norway, we demonstrate the utility of hierarchical, mechanistic path models fitted using a Bayesian approach to analyse explicitly predicted relationships among environmental variables and between lamb body mass and the environmental variables. We found large spatial variation in strength of responses of autumn lamb body mass to the NAO, to a proxy for plant growth in spring (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) and effects even differed in direction to local summer climate. Average local temperature outperformed GDD as a predictor of the NDVI, whereas the NAO index in two areas outperformed local weather variables as a predictor of lamb body mass, despite the weaker mechanistic link. Our study highlights that spatial variation in strength of herbivore responses may arise from several processes. Furthermore, mechanistically more appealing measures do not always increase predictive power due to scale of measurement and since global measures may provide more relevant "weather packages" for larger scales.
Collapse
|