Zhou X, Tan P, Huo M, Wang Y, Zhang Q. Development and verification of a prediction model for outcomes of elderly patients with nursing home-acquired pneumonia.
Appl Nurs Res 2024;
78:151816. [PMID:
39053996 DOI:
10.1016/j.apnr.2024.151816]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 06/25/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Among all infections in nursing homes, pneumonia has the highest mortality. Nurses have a 24-h relationship with patients and have a key role in identifying and preventing adverse outcomes. However, tools to engage nurses in pneumonia patient outcomes evaluation have not occurred.
PURPOSE
This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model to predict the outcome of elderly patients with nursing home-acquired pneumonia (NHAP).
METHODOLOGY
A retrospective observational study was conducted with 219 elderly NHAP patients. Baseline characteristics, health history, and treatment/nursing status were collected. Variables for constructing nomograms were screened by univariate and multivariate analysis. The nomogram model was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA) curves, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.
RESULTS
9 independent risk factors were identified and assembled into the nomogram. The nomogram exhibited reasonably accurate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC): 0.931, P < 0.05) and calibration (C-index: 0.931, 95 % CI: 0.898-0.964) in the validation cohort. DCA and clinical impact curves demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial.
CONCLUSIONS
A visualization nomogram model was successfully established for predicting the outcome of the NHAP elderly patients. The model has extremely high reliability, extremely high predictive ability, and good clinical applicability.
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