External validation and reliability assessment of posterior urethral morphology on initial voiding cystourethrogram as a predictor for infants with posterior urethral valves

INTRODUCTION

The morphology of the bladder and posterior urethra on initial voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) in posterior urethral valve (PUV) has been proposed as a meaningful early metric for short- and long-term kidney outcomes. Here, we seek to externally validate the proposed association and assess the reliability of PUV morphology characteristics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed our institutional database for patients managed for PUV between 2000 and 2022 and included those treated with primary ablation with at least 1 year of follow-up for kidney function. Each VCUG was evaluated by three independent raters for the height-width ratio of the bladder (HW-B), height-width ratio of the posterior urethra (HW-PU), and posterior-anterior urethral ratio (PA-UR), and trabeculation (none, fine, or coarse). We assessed the reliability in these with intra-class coefficient and Fleiss kappa for continuous and categorical data, respectively. We performed univariate analysis with nadir creatinine and five-year follow-up glomerular filtration rate (GFR).

RESULTS

In total, 98 patients met inclusion criteria. The median age at diagnosis and ablation was 10 and 21 days, respectively. Patients with nadir creatinine <0.8 mg/dL had higher follow-up GFR (101 vs. 20 ml/min/1.73 m2, p = 0.04), and lower risk of CKD (odds ratio 14.7, p = 0.002). The median value for HW-B was 1.4, median HW-PU was 2.1, and median PA-U was 4.7, There was significant inter-class agreement between all three measures of 0.80, 0.51, and 0.70 (p < 0.001). The inter-rater agreement for bladder trabeculation was fair (Fleiss K = 0.40, p < 0.001). There was no statistically significant correlation between HW-B, HW-PU, PU-A with nadir creatinine (p = 0.07, 0.33, 0.91) or 5-year GFR (0.27, 0.45, 0.62), respectively.

DISCUSSION

There is significant interest in determining prognostic factors and metrics in PUV. The morphological characteristics on VCUG are reliable and is available information for all boys diagnosed with PUV, resulting in an attractive metric. While we do not demonstrate correlation with kidney outcomes, VCUG features warrant further attention as prognostic factors in PUV.

CONCLUSIONS

PUV morphology on initial VCUG is a reliable metric of lower urinary tract deformity but is not associated with 5-year kidney outcomes.

DNA copy number variants: A potentially useful predictor of early onset renal failure in boys with posterior urethral valves

INTRODUCTION

Posterior urethral valves (PUV) are among the most common urological causes of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in childhood. Recently, genomic imbalances have been cited as potential risk factors for altered kidney function and have been associated with CKD. The phenotypic effects of a copy number variant (CNV) in boys with PUV are unknown. Here, it was hypothesised that the progression to early renal failure in PUV patients may be influenced by genetic aberrations.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship between CNVs and renal outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between September 2012 and July 2015, 45 children with PUV were recruited to evaluate the presence of CNVs in their DNA. The patients' medical records were retrospectively reviewed. The criteria for outcomes of renal function included: assessments of the nadir serum creatinine in the first year of life, the estimated glomerular filtration rate at 1 and 5 years, and the requirement for renal replacement.

RESULTS

Thirteen CNVs were identified in 12 boys (29% of the cohort). Microarray analysis revealed two pathogenic CNVs (well-established CNVs known to be associated with genetic disease) and 11 of unknown significance (CNVs with insufficient current available evidence for unequivocal determination of clinical significance), including genes that have been previously implicated in kidney diseases and urogenital disorders. The median follow-up was 10.2 years (range 3-17.5) in the group of patients with CNV compared with 5.8 years (range 1-16.6) in those CNV-. The nadir creatinine values were significantly higher in boys with CNVs than in those without CNVs (57.5 μmol/L (range 23-215) and 28 μmol/L (range 18-155), respectively (P = 0.05) (Figure). Boys CNV+ had a worse prognosis, with a higher incidence of Stage-V CKD compared with the control group (33% with CNVs vs. 9% in CNV-, P = 0.06) at a median age of 22 months (range 8 months-16 years). Four (33%) patients CNV+ underwent renal transplantation.

DISCUSSION

The role of CNVs in the deterioration of renal function remains unknown. It can be hypothesised that CNVs could be a contributing factor or may serve as an accelerant for the progression to renal failure.

CONCLUSION

The CNVs >100 Kb were significantly associated with early onset renal failure in children with PUV. Prenatal detection of CNV could help to identify foetuses at high risk of severe renal impairment in cases of suspected PUV, especially in cases without oligohydramnios or severe pulmonary hypoplasia. These preliminary results should be confirmed in a larger cohort of patients.

Nadir creatinine in posterior urethral valves: How high is low enough?

INTRODUCTION

Large retrospective studies of people with posterior urethral valves (PUV) have reported chronic renal insufficiency (CRI) in up to one third of the participants and end-stage renal failure in up to one quarter of them. Nadir creatinine (lowest creatinine during the first year following diagnosis) is the recognised prognostic indicator for renal outcome in PUV, the most commonly used cut-off being 1 mg/dl (88.4 umol/l).

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a statistical analysis of nadir creatinine in PUV patients in order to identify the optimal cut-off level as a prognostic indicator for CRI.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients treated by endoscopic valve ablation at the present institution between 1993 and 2004 were reviewed. Chronic renal insufficiency was defined as CKD2 or higher. Statistical methods included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Fisher exact test and diagnostic utility tests. Statistical significance was defined as P < 0.05.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Nadir creatinine was identified in 96 patients. The median follow-up was 9.4 (IQR 7.0, 13.4) years. A total of 29 (30.2%) patients developed CRI, with nine (9.4%) reaching end-stage renal failure. On ROC analysis, Nadir creatinine was highly prognostic for future CRI, with an Area Under the Curve of 0.887 (P < 0.001). Renal insufficiency occurred in all 10 (100%) patients with nadir creatinine >88.4 umol/l compared with 19 of 86 (22.2%) patients with lower nadir creatinine (P < 0.001). As a test for future CRI, a nadir creatinine cut-off of 88.4 umol/l gave a specificity of 100%, but poor sensitivity of 34.5%. Lowering the cut-off to 75 umol/l resulted in improvement in all diagnostic utility tests (Table). All 14 (100%) patients with nadir creatinine >75 umol/l developed CRI, compared with 15 of 82 (18.3%) patients with lower nadir creatinine (P < 0.001). Sensitivity only approached 95% at 35 umol/l, at which level specificity was low (Table). Two out of 36 (5.6%) patients with nadir creatinine <35 umol/l developed CRI. Multivariate analysis found recurrent UTI (OR 4.733; CI 1.297-17.280) and nadir creatinine >75 umol/l (OR 48.988; CI 4.9-490.11) to be independent risk factors for progression to CRI. Using cut-off values of 35 umol/l and 75 umol/l, patients can be stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, with development of CRI in 5.3%, 28.3% and 100%, respectively (P <0.001). The stage of CKD was higher in higher risk groups.

CONCLUSION

Patients with nadir creatinine >75 umol/l (0.85 mg/dl) should be considered at high risk for CRI, while patients with nadir creatinine ≤35 umol/l (0.4 mg/dl) should be considered low risk. Patients with nadir creatinine between these two values have an intermediate risk of CRI.

Combined creatinine velocity and nadir creatinine: A reliable predictor of renal outcome in neonatally diagnosed posterior urethral valves

INTRODUCTION

Nadir creatinine (lowest creatinine during the first year following diagnosis) is a recognised indicator of future chronic renal impairment (CRI) in posterior urethral valve (PUV) patients. We recently described "creatinine velocity" (Cvel), the rate of change of creatinine following initial bladder drainage, as a new early predictor of CRI in neonatally diagnosed PUV. Rising Cvel (>3 μmol/L/day) is associated with increased risk of CRI.

OBJECTIVE

We studied these two prognostic indicators in combination, as a test for future CRI in neonatally diagnosed PUV patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Medical records for patients treated by endoscopic valve ablation at our institution between 1993 and 2004 were reviewed. Simple linear regression was used to calculate Cvel. Creatinine velocity and nadir creatinine were considered predictive of future CRI if they were greater than 3 μmol/L/day or greater than 75 μmol/L (0.85 mg/dL), respectively. Chronic renal insufficiency was defined as CKD2 or higher. Outcomes in test groups were analysed by Fisher exact test. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Sixty-two patients were treated within the first 30 days of life and had sufficient data to calculate both Cvel and nadir creatinine. Mean follow-up was 9.4 years. Patients were grouped as having both risk factors (Group A), one risk factor (Group B), or neither risk factor (Group C). All four (100%) patients from Group A developed CRI, compared with 11 of 17 (64.7%) patients from Group B and three of 41 (7.3%) patients from Group C (p ≤ 0.0005). As a diagnostic test for future CRI, "presence of at least one risk factor" had a specificity of 86.4%, sensitivity of 83.3%, positive predictive value of 71.4%, and negative predictive value of 92.7%. Additional prognostic information was obtained by assigning a score from 1 to 3 for each prognostic indicator (Table). The sum of these scores gave a PUV Risk Score. No patient with a PUV Risk Score of 2 developed CRI, while all patients with a Score of 6 developed CRI. Incidence of CRI in patients with PUV Risk Scores of 3, 4, and 5 was 8.3%, 50%, and 63.6%, respectively (p ≤ 0.0005).

CONCLUSION

Considered together, these prognostic indicators provide a powerful test for future CRI. Presence of at least one of these risk factors should be considered "at risk for CRI". Patients with neither risk factor are unlikely to develop CRI. Calculation of the PUV Risk Score provides an even more accurate prognosis.