Predicting later categories of upper limb activity from earlier clinical assessments following stroke: an exploratory analysis

BACKGROUND

Accelerometers allow for direct measurement of upper limb (UL) activity. Recently, multi-dimensional categories of UL performance have been formed to provide a more complete measure of UL use in daily life. Prediction of motor outcomes after stroke have tremendous clinical utility and a next step is to explore what factors might predict someone's subsequent UL performance category.

PURPOSE

To explore how different machine learning techniques can be used to understand how clinical measures and participant demographics captured early after stroke are associated with the subsequent UL performance categories.

METHODS

This study analyzed data from two time points from a previous cohort (n = 54). Data used was participant characteristics and clinical measures from early after stroke and a previously established category of UL performance at a later post stroke time point. Different machine learning techniques (a single decision tree, bagged trees, and random forests) were used to build predictive models with different input variables. Model performance was quantified with the explanatory power (in-sample accuracy), predictive power (out-of-bag estimate of error), and variable importance.

RESULTS

A total of seven models were built, including one single decision tree, three bagged trees, and three random forests. Measures of UL impairment and capacity were the most important predictors of the subsequent UL performance category, regardless of the machine learning algorithm used. Other non-motor clinical measures emerged as key predictors, while participant demographics predictors (with the exception of age) were generally less important across the models. Models built with the bagging algorithms outperformed the single decision tree for in-sample accuracy (26-30% better classification) but had only modest cross-validation accuracy (48-55% out of bag classification).

CONCLUSIONS

UL clinical measures were the most important predictors of the subsequent UL performance category in this exploratory analysis regardless of the machine learning algorithm used. Interestingly, cognitive and affective measures emerged as important predictors when the number of input variables was expanded. These results reinforce that UL performance, in vivo, is not a simple product of body functions nor the capacity for movement, instead being a complex phenomenon dependent on many physiological and psychological factors. Utilizing machine learning, this exploratory analysis is a productive step toward the prediction of UL performance. Trial registration NA.

Temporal trends in intraventricular hemorrhage in preterm infants: A Brazilian multicenter cohort

BACKGROUND

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is a serious problem in preterm infants. Brazilian national data are unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the incidence and temporal trend of IVH in very low birth weight (VLBW) preterm infants of 18 centers of the Brazilian Network on Neonatal Research.

STUDY DESIGN

National prospective multicenter cohort study including inborn VLBW preterm infants aged 23^0/7- 33^6/7 weeks' gestation, admitted between 2013 and 2018. The center with the mean incidence rate was used as reference. We applied two adjustments models using perinatal variables, and perinatal + neonatal diseases.

RESULTS

Of 6,420 infants, 1951/30.4% (range 27.1-33.8%) had IVH and the disease showed a significant trend towards an overall increase in incidence over time (p = 0.003), especially in three centers. Severe IVH (grade III or IV) occurred in 32.2% (range 29.2-34.5%) of those affected by IVH, with a stable incidence. After adjustments for perinatal variables, the differences persisted among centers: for global IVH, 7 centers had significantly lower rates (OR ranging from 0.31 to 0.62), and 2 presented rates higher than the reference center (OR ranging from 2.00 to 12.46) for severe HIV. Considering perinatal and neonatal variables, 6 centers had significantly lower rates (OR ranging from 0.36 to 0.60) for global IVH than the reference center and 3 had statistically higher rates (OR 1.72, 1.86 and 11.78) for severe forms.

CONCLUSION

The incidence rate of IVH in this Brazilian cohort was high and it revealed an increasing trend towards over time. The severe IVH rate was also worrisome.

Development of the Clinical Gestalt Assessment: a visual clinical global impression scale for Proteus syndrome

BACKGROUND

Clinical outcome assessments are important tools for measuring the natural history of disease and efficacy of an intervention. The heterogenous phenotype and difficult to quantity features of Proteus syndrome present challenges to measuring clinical outcomes. To address these, we designed a global clinical assessment for Proteus syndrome, a rare mosaic overgrowth disorder. The Clinical Gestalt Assessment (CGA) aims to evaluate change over time in this phenotypically diverse disorder.

RESULTS

We gathered paired serial photographs and radiographs obtained at 12-to-36-month intervals from our natural history study of Proteus syndrome. The chronologic order of each set was blinded and presented to clinicians familiar with overgrowth disorders. They were asked to determine the chronologic order and, based on that response, rate global clinical change using a seven-point scale (Much Worse, Worse, Minimally Worse, No Change, Minimally Improved, Improved, Much Improved). Following a pilot, we tested the inter-rater reliability of the CGA using eight cases rated by eight clinicians. Raters identified the correct chronologic order in 53 of 64 (83%) of responses. There was low inter-rater variance and poor to moderate reliability with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.46 (95% CI 0.24-0.75). The overall estimate of global change was Minimally Worse over time, which is an accurate reflection of the natural history of Proteus syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

The CGA is a tool to evaluate clinical change over time in Proteus syndrome and may be a useful adjunct to measure clinical outcomes in prospective therapeutic trials.

The benefits of an unsupervised exercise program in persons with well-healed burn injuries within the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF)

Vast improvements in the survival rates following burn injuries has led to a greater number of patients living with a wide range of long-term impairments, activity limitations, and participation constraints. Therefore, long-term care is critical in this clinical population and necessitates appropriate rehabilitation strategies to maximize an individual's overall health. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the extent to which outcomes within the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) framework are improved following 6 months of unsupervised exercise training is influenced by the severity of a burn injury (i.e., percent body surface area injured). Outcome variables representing the dimensions of the ICF, body functions & structure, activity, and participation, were collected pre- and post- 6 months of exercise training in three groups of participants: non-injured control subjects (N = 11), subjects with moderate-level well-healed burn injuries (N = 13, 26 ± 6% body surface area burned), and subjects with high-level well-healed burn injuries (N = 20, 58 ± 15% body surface area burned). Exercise training improved lower extremity strength (changes in peak torque/kg body mass at 90 degrees/sec flexion: 30 ± 5% and extension: 36 ± 4%, p < 0.05) and functional activities (changes in sit to stand: -9 ± 4% and ascend stairs: -4 ± 1%; p < 0.05) in all groups. For outcome variables representing ICF levels of body functions & structure and activity, there were no differences at baseline or improvements made between the groups after training. That said, with the exception of the domain of functional activity (reported 17 ± 34% improvement in the high-level burn cohort, p < 0.05), no changes were revealed in the participation level of ICF indexed by health-related quality of life questionnaires. These findings support the utilization of a 6-month unsupervised exercise training program in the long-term rehabilitation of individuals with burn injuries; that is, improvements in body functions & structure and activity can be achieved with an exercise regimen regardless of the severity of burn injury.

Comparison of an ordinal endpoint to time-to-event, longitudinal, and binary endpoints for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization

Background/aims

The Food and Drug Administration recommends research into developing well-defined and reliable endpoints to evaluate treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization. A novel 6-category ordinal endpoint of patient health status after 7 days that ranges from death to hospital discharge with resumption of normal activities is being used in a randomized placebo-controlled trial of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) for severe influenza (FLU-IVIG). We compare the power of the ordinal endpoint under a proportional odds model to other types of endpoints as a function of various trial parameters.

Methods

We used closed-form analysis and empirical simulation to compare the power of the ordinal endpoint to time-to-event, longitudinal, and binary endpoints. In the simulation setting, we varied the treatment effect and the distribution of the placebo group across the follow-up period with consideration of adjustment for baseline health status.

Results

In the analytic setting, ordinal endpoints of high granularity provided greater power than time-to-event endpoints when most patients in the placebo group had either naturally progressed to the category of hospital discharge by day 7 or were far from hospital discharge on day 7. In the simulation setting, adjustment for baseline health status universally raised power for the proportional odds model. Across different placebo group distributions of the ordinal endpoint regardless of adjustment for baseline health status, only time-to-event endpoints yielded higher power than the ordinal endpoint for certain treatment effects.

Conclusions

In this case study, the FLU-IVIG ordinal endpoint provided greater power than time-to-event, binary, and longitudinal endpoints for most scenarios of the treatment effect and placebo group distribution, including the target population studied for FLU-IVIG. The ordinal endpoint was only surpassed by the time-to-event endpoint when many patients in the placebo group were on the cusp of hospital discharge on day 7 and the follow-up period for the time-to-event endpoint was extended to allow for additional events. Our general approach for evaluating the power of several potential endpoints for an influenza trial can be used for designing other influenza trials with different target populations and for other trials in other disease areas.

Development and validation of a French questionnaire concerning patients' perspectives of the quality of palliative care: the QUALI-PALLI-Patient

Background

Indicators for the quality of palliative care are a priority of caregivers and managers to allow improvement of various care settings and their comparison. The involvement of patients and families is of paramount, although this is rarely achieved in practice. No validated assessment tools are available in French. Simple cultural adaption of existing questionnaires may be insufficient, due to the varying organization of care in different countries.

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a new instrument to measure the quality of palliative care and satisfaction from the patient point of view.

Methods

Results from a qualitative study were used by a multi-professional workgroup to construct an initial set of 42 items exploring six domains. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in seven hospitals, encompassing three care settings: two palliative care units, one palliative care hospital, and four standard medical units with a mobile palliative care team. All items were assessed for acceptability. We conducted exploratory structural analysis using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and evaluated external validity by comparison against global rating of satisfaction and the MD Anderson Symptom Inventory (MDASI) questionnaire.

Results

A total of 214 patients completed the questionnaire. After removing 7 items from the response distribution, PCA identified eight interpretable domains from the 35 final items: availability of caregivers, serenity, quality of information, pain management, caregivers’ listening skills, psychosocial and spiritual aspects, possibility to refuse (care or volunteers), and respect for the patient. Internal consistency was good or acceptable for all subscales (Cronbach’s α 0.5–0.84), except the last one (0.15). Factorial structure was found globally maintained across subgroups defined by age, sex, Palliative Performance Scale (PPS ≥ 60%, 40–50% and ≤ 30%), and care settings. General satisfaction was inversely correlated with the 2 scores of the MDASI questionnaire: symptoms’ severity and impact on life. Each subscale, except “possibility to refuse”, correlated with general satisfaction.

Conclusions

Quali-Palli-Pat appears to be a valid, reliable, and well-accepted French tool to explore the quality of care and the satisfaction of palliative care patients. It should be confirmed in a wider sample of care settings.

Trial registration

clinicaltrials.gov NCT02814682, registration date 28.6.2016.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12904-019-0403-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Patient reported outcome measures in rare diseases: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

Rare diseases can lead to a significant reduction in quality of life for patients and their families. Ensuring the patients voice is central to clinical decision making is key to delivering, evaluating and understanding the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are used to capture the patient's views about their health status and facilitate our understanding of the impact of these diseases and their treatments on patient's quality of life and symptoms.

MAIN TEXT

This review explores some of the current issues around the utilisation of PROMs in rare diseases, including small patient populations and dearth of valid PROMs. Difficulties in validating new or current PROMs for use in clinical trials and research are discussed. The review highlights potential solutions for some of the issues outlined in the review and the implementation of PROMs in research and clinical practice are discussed.

CONCLUSION

Patient input throughout the development of PROMs including qualitative research is essential to ensure that outcomes that matter to people living with rare disease are appropriately captured. Given the large number of rare diseases, small numbers of patients living with each condition and the cost of instrument development, creative and pragmatic solutions to PROM development and use may be necessary. Solutions include qualitative interviews, modern psychometrics and resources such as item banking and computer adaptive testing. Use of PROMs in rare disease research and clinical practice offers the potential to improve patient care and clinical outcomes.

Use of Mobile Devices to Measure Outcomes in Clinical Research, 2010-2016: A Systematic Literature Review

Background

The use of mobile devices in clinical research has advanced substantially in recent years due to the rapid pace of technology development. With an overall aim of informing the future use of mobile devices in interventional clinical research to measure primary outcomes, we conducted a systematic review of the use of and clinical outcomes measured by mobile devices (mobile outcomes) in observational and interventional clinical research.

Method

We conducted a PubMed search using a range of search terms to retrieve peer-reviewed articles on clinical research published between January 2010 and May 2016 in which mobile devices were used to measure study outcomes. We screened each publication for specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. We then identified and qualitatively summarized the use of mobile outcome assessments in clinical research, including the type and design of the study, therapeutic focus, type of mobile device(s) used, and specific mobile outcomes reported.

Results

The search retrieved 2,530 potential articles of interest. After screening, 88 publications remained. Twenty-five percent of the publications (n = 22) described mobile outcomes used in interventional research, and the rest (n = 66) described observational clinical research. Thirteen therapeutic areas were represented. Five categories of mobile devices were identified: (1) inertial sensors, (2) biosensors, (3) pressure sensors and walkways, (4) medication adherence monitors, and (5) location monitors; inertial sensors/accelerometers were most common (reported in 86% of the publications). Among the variety of mobile outcomes, various assessments of physical activity were most common (reported in 74% of the publications). Other mobile outcomes included assessments of sleep, mobility, and pill adherence, as well as biomarkers assessed using a mobile device, including cardiac measures, glucose, gastric reflux, respiratory measures, and intensity of head-related injury.

Conclusion

Mobile devices are being widely used in clinical research to assess outcomes, although their use in interventional research to assess therapeutic effectiveness is limited. For mobile devices to be used more frequently in pivotal interventional research – such as trials informing regulatory decision-making – more focus should be placed on: (1) consolidating the evidence supporting the clinical meaningfulness of specific mobile outcomes, and (2) standardizing the use of mobile devices in clinical research to measure specific mobile outcomes (e.g., data capture frequencies, placement of device). To that aim, this manuscript offers a broad overview of the various mobile outcome assessments currently used in observational and interventional research, and categorizes and consolidates this information for researchers interested in using mobile devices to assess outcomes in interventional research.

Predictors of short-term LAMA ineffectiveness in treatment naïve patients with moderate to severe COPD

BACKGROUND

No specific (only subgroup) recommendations for the use of long-acting muscarinic antagonists in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exist. The aim of this exploratory hypothesis generating study was to assess whether different phenotypic/endotypic characteristics could be determinants of the short-term ineffectiveness of the initial tiotropium bromide monotherapy in treatment naïve moderate to severe COPD patients.

METHODS

A total of 51 consecutively recruited COPD patients were followed for 3 months after the initial evaluation and prescribed initial treatment (tiotropium). Short-term treatment ineffectiveness was assessed as a composite measure comprising COPD exacerbations, need for additional treatment, and no improvement in functional parameters, e.g. 6‑min walking test (6MWT), body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise (BODE) index and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), and as single components.

RESULTS

Treatment ineffectiveness was significantly associated with baseline hemoglobin level, COPD assessment test (CAT) score, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scale and BODE index (p = 0.002). Incident exacerbation during the follow-up was associated with baseline bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) alpha-amylase level and CAT score (p < 0.001), and change in treatment with leukocyte count, 6MWT desaturation and fatigue (p < 0.001). No improvement in 6MWT was associated with baseline CAT score, body mass index, mMRC, fatigue, 6MWT and BODE index (p = 0.002). No improvement in BODE index was associated with leukocyte count, serum interleukin 8 (IL-8) and BALF albumin levels (p < 0.001); and no improvement in FEV₁ with CAT score, baseline vital capacity and BALF tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) level (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that there is a possibility to identify predictors of short-term tiotropium ineffectiveness in patients with moderate to severe COPD.

Clinician-reported lesion measurements in skin infection trials: Definitions, reliability, and association with patient-reported pain

OBJECTIVES

Outcome assessments as clinical trial endpoints should be well-defined, reliable, and reflect meaningful treatment benefits. For acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) trials, recent recommendations suggest a primary endpoint of reduction in skin lesion area. Objectives were: evaluate ABSSSI lesion area measurement reliability, evaluate impact of various lesion area definitions on treatment effect size, and explore relationships between lesion area and pain.

METHODS

Data from two randomized, double-blinded Phase 3 trials comparing tedizolid to linezolid in ABSSSI and one open-label, non-comparative Phase 2 study of tedizolid in cellulitis/erysipelas and skin abscess were analyzed. Repeated lesion area measurements were prospectively obtained in all studies. In the open-label study, lesion area was measured by two investigators, using four different definitions. Repeated pain assessments using two patient-reported outcome instruments (Visual Analog Scale [VAS] and Faces Rating Scale [FRS]) were elicited in the randomized trials.

RESULTS

At baseline, lesion size did not correlate with pain intensity: r=0.02 for VAS and r<0.01 for FRS pain scores. However, decreasing lesion size and decreasing pain were strongly associated over time, regardless of initial lesion size or pain intensity (r=0.20 for VAS and r=0.21 for FRS scores at Day 10-13). Each lesion area definition demonstrated high inter-observer reliability (intra-class correlation coefficient>0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Decreasing lesion area (indirect clinician-reported measure of benefit) and pain (direct patient-reported measure of benefit) were strongly associated over time, and lesion area measurements were reliable, regardless of their definition. These findings support both measures as outcome assessments in ABSSSI clinical trials.

REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.govNCT01519778, NCT01170221, and NCT01421511.

Consideration of additional factors in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score

PURPOSE

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, originally developed to assess organ failure status, is widely used as a prognostic indicator in intensive care unit patients. Additional prognostic factors, such as age and comorbidities, may complement the predictive performance of the SOFA.

METHODS

In total, 1049 consecutive patients were enrolled prospectively. SOFA and other admission-based intensive care unit scores were recorded during the first 24 hours. A complemented SOFA (cSOFA) score model was constructed by adding age and comorbidity scores to the original SOFA score, based on logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance was evaluated with regard to hospital mortality by receiver operating characteristics analysis. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess calibration of the model, and leave-one-out cross-validation was performed.

RESULTS

The cSOFA score (maximum 30 points) was calculated as the SOFA score (24 points) + age score (2 points) + comorbidity score (4 points). The cSOFA score model showed satisfactory calibration and cross-validation performance. The AUC (95% CI) of the cSOFA score (0.812 [0.787-0.835]) was higher than the SOFA score (0.743 [0.715-0.769], P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

The performance of the SOFA score to predict hospital mortality can be improved by considering age and comorbidity factors.

Multiple Sclerosis Outcome Assessments Consortium: Genesis and initial project plan

The need for improved clinical outcome measures in multiple sclerosis trials has been recognized for two decades, but only recently has the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) created a pathway for qualification of new clinician-reported outcome (ClinRO) assessments. Additionally, drug development in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been extraordinarily active, with numerous disease-modifying drugs now on the market. This shifting therapeutic landscape, along with the unmet need for drugs to treat the progressive forms of MS and the changing expectations of clinicians, patients, and payers, have led to the call for more sensitive and meaningful disability progression measures. In response to these drivers, the Multiple Sclerosis Outcome Assessments Consortium (MSOAC) was launched. A public-private partnership, MSOAC aims to accelerate the development of new therapies for MS by generating new tools for measuring outcomes in clinical trials. At the first annual MSOAC/FDA meeting, a regulatory path was outlined for qualifying a new tool for assessing efficacy in registration trials of MS. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) and FDA will provide parallel consultation and review. The consensus approach with engagement by all of the stakeholders, prominently including patients with MS, should also increase acceptance of the measure by clinicians and patients.