Mangrove blue carbon strategies for climate change mitigation are most effective at the national scale

Carbon fixed by vegetated coastal ecosystems (blue carbon) can mitigate anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, though its effectiveness differs with the spatial scale of interest. A literature review compiling carbon sequestration rates within key ecosystems confirms that blue carbon ecosystems are the most efficient natural carbon sinks at the plot scale, though some overlooked biogeochemical processes may lead to overestimation. Moreover, the limited spatial extent of coastal habitats minimizes their potential at the global scale, only buffering 0.42% of the global fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2014. Still, blue carbon plays a role for countries with moderate fossil fuel emissions and extensive coastlines. In 2014, mangroves mitigated greater than 1% of national fossil fuel emissions for countries such as Bangladesh, Colombia and Nigeria. Considering that the Paris Agreement is based on nationally determined contributions, we propose that mangrove blue carbon may contribute to climate change mitigation at this scale in some instances alongside other blue carbon ecosystems.

Exploring the impact of technological innovation, environmental regulations and urbanization on ecological efficiency of China in the context of COP21

The objective of this study was to explore the roles of technological innovation, environmental regulations, and urbanization in ecological efficiency within the context of the 2015 Paris agreement. Initially, the study employed the super-efficiency DEA model to estimate the ecological efficiencies of 30 regions in China. Following this, the system GMM method was used to explore the impacts of technological innovation, environmental regulations, and urbanization on ecological efficiency. We used annual data from 2008 to 2018. The results indicate that, in terms of ecological efficiency, the eastern region was the highest ranked, followed by central and western regions, respectively. The urbanization index has a negative impact on ecological efficiency at a national level. However, in the context of regions, it is positively significant in the eastern region, while the results in the central and western regions are insignificant. The influence of technological innovation on ecological efficiency is found to be significantly positive at both national and regional levels. It is generally perceived that environmental regulations are pivotal for sustainability. Our results verify this argument and indicate that environmental regulations have a positive impact on ecological efficiency in the central and eastern regions. However, their impact is found to be negative in the western region. Policy suggestions are discussed, in order to further strengthen environmental laws and sustainability.

Reinvigorating the role of clean energy transition for achieving a low-carbon economy: evidence from Bangladesh

Achieving carbon-neutrality has become a global agenda following the ratification of the Paris Agreement. For the developing countries, in particular, attaining a low-carbon economy is particularly important since these economies are predominantly fossil-fuel dependent, to which Bangladesh is no exception. Therefore, this study specifically aimed at evaluating the environmental impacts associated with energy consumption and other key macroeconomic variables in the context of Bangladesh over the 1975-2016 period. As opposed to the conventional practice of using carbon dioxide emissions to proxy environmental quality, this study makes a novel attempt to use the carbon footprints to measure environmental welfare in Bangldesh. The outcomes from this study are expected to facilitate the carbon-neutrality objective of Bangladesh and, therefore, enable the nation to comply with its commitments concerning the attainment of the targets enlisted under the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals declarations. The econometric analysis involved the application of methods that are suitable for handling the structural break issues in the data. The overall findings from empirical exercises reveal that aggregate energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, and natural gas consumption boost the carbon footprint figures of Bangladesh. In contrast, nonfossil fuel consumption and hydroelectricity consumption are witnessed to abate the carbon footprint levels. Besides, economic growth and international trade are also evidenced to further increase the carbon footprints. Hence, these findings suggest that a clean energy transition within the Bangladesh economy can be the panacea to the nation's persitently aggravating environmental hardships. Furthermore, the causality analysis confirmed the presence of unidirectional causalities stemming from total energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, natural gas consumption, hydroelectricity consumption, economic growth, and international trade to the carbon footprints. On the other hand, nonfossil fuel consumption is found to be bidirectionally associated with carbon footprints. In line with these aforementioned findings, several key policy suggestions are put forward regarding the facilitation of the carbon-neutrality agenda in Bangladesh.

Climate change mitigation potential of wetlands and the cost-effectiveness of their restoration

The cost-effective mitigation of climate change through nature-based carbon dioxide removal strategies has gained substantial policy attention. Inland and coastal wetlands (specifically boreal, temperate and tropical peatlands; tundra; floodplains; freshwater marshes; saltmarshes; and mangroves) are among the most efficient natural long-term carbon sinks. Yet, they also release methane (CH₄) that can offset the carbon they sequester. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis on wetland carbon dynamics to (i) determine their impact on climate using different metrics and time horizons, (ii) investigate the cost-effectiveness of wetland restoration for climate change mitigation, and (iii) discuss their suitability for inclusion in climate policy as negative emission technologies. Depending on metrics, a wetland can simultaneously be a net carbon sink (i.e. boreal and temperate peatlands net ecosystem carbon budget = -28.1 ± 19.13 gC m^-2 y^-1) but have a net warming effect on climate at the 100 years time-scale (i.e. boreal and temperate peatland sustained global warming potential = 298.2 ± 100.6 gCO₂ eq^-1 m^-2 y^-1). This situation creates ambivalence regarding the effect of wetlands on global temperature. Moreover, our review reveals high heterogeneity among the (limited number of) studies that document wetland carbon budgets. We demonstrate that most coastal and inland wetlands have a net cooling effect as of today. This is explained by the limited CH₄ emissions that undisturbed coastal wetlands produce, and the long-term carbon sequestration performed by older inland wetlands as opposed to the short lifetime of CH₄ in the atmosphere. Analysis of wetland restoration costs relative to the amount of carbon they can sequester revealed that restoration is more cost-effective in coastal wetlands such as mangroves (US$1800 ton C^-1) compared with inland wetlands (US$4200-49 200 ton C^-1). We advise that for inland wetlands, priority should be given to conservation rather than restoration; while for coastal wetlands, both conservation and restoration may be effective techniques for climate change mitigation.

Research on the impact of multi-dimensional urbanization on China's carbon emissions under the background of COP21

The Paris Agreement (COP21) further defines the concept of global climate governance as low-carbon green development. Urbanization and carbon emissions are two major characteristics of modern Chinese economic and social development. China's new urbanization requires not only the realization of population, the harmonization of land and economic urbanization also requires the protection of the ecological environment in the process of urbanization to achieve green and low-carbon development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions and compare their differences based on spatial econometric models and from various perspectives of urbanization. Empirical findings of the study are as follows: (1) The Moran's I indexes are all above 0.5, the spatial effects of regional carbon emissions are significant, and it cannot be ignored. Similarly, it shows that the optimal model is a spatial doubly model with dual fixed effects. (2) Direct effects of population, land, and economic urbanization are positive. Whereas, indirect effect about population urbanization is negative, but its total effect is same direction change with carbon emissions. Indirect and total effect of land urbanization are negative, indirect effect of economic urbanization is small and total effect is significantly positive. (3) Per capita GDP, energy intensity, and environmental regulation variables of control variables are all positive; opening to outside be positive but not obvious.

Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research

Anthropogenic climate change is adversely impacting people and contributing to suffering and increased costs from climate-related diseases and injuries. In responding to this urgent and growing public health crisis, mitigation strategies are in place to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) while adaptation strategies exist to reduce and/or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change by increasing systems' resilience to future impacts. While these strategies have numerous positive benefits on climate change itself, they also often have other positive externalities or health co-benefits. This knowledge can be harnessed to promote and improve global public health, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Previous conceptual models in mitigation and adaptation studies such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considered health in the thinking, but health outcomes were not their primary intention. Additionally, existing guidance documents such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidance for Climate Resilient and Environmentally Sustainable Health Care Facilities is designed primarily for public health professionals or healthcare managers in hospital settings with a primary focus on resilience. However, a detailed cross sectoral and multidisciplinary conceptual framework, which links mitigation and adaptation strategies with health outcomes as a primary end point, has not yet been developed to guide research in this area. In this paper, we briefly summarize the burden of climate change on global public health, describe important mitigation and adaptation strategies, and present key health benefits by giving context specific examples from high, middle, and low-income settings. We then provide a conceptual framework to inform future global public health research and preparedness across sectors and disciplines and outline key stakeholders recommendations in promoting climate resilient systems and advancing health equity.

Designing Nutritionally Adequate and Climate-Friendly Diets for Omnivorous, Pescatarian, Vegetarian and Vegan Adolescents in Sweden Using Linear Optimization

Low-carbon diets can counteract climate change and promote health if they are nutritionally adequate, affordable and culturally acceptable. This study aimed at developing sustainable diets and to compare these with the EAT-Lancet diet. The Swedish national dietary survey Riksmaten Adolescents 2016-2017 was used as the baseline. Diets were optimized using linear programming for four dietary patterns: omnivores, pescatarians, vegetarians and vegans. The deviation from the baseline Riksmaten diet was minimized for all optimized diets while fulfilling nutrient and climate footprint constraints. Constraining the diet-related carbon dioxide equivalents of omnivores to 1.57 kg/day resulted in a diet associated with a reduction of meat, dairy products, and processed foods and an increase in potatoes, pulses, eggs and seafood. Climate-friendly, nutritionally adequate diets for pescatarians, vegetarians and vegans contained fewer foods and included considerable amounts of fortified dairy and meat substitutes. The optimized diets did not align very well with the food-group pattern of the EAT-Lancet diet. These findings suggest how to design future diets that are climate-friendly, nutritionally adequate, affordable, and culturally acceptable for Swedish adolescents with different dietary patterns. The discrepancies with the EAT diet indicate that the cultural dietary context is likely to play an important role in characterizing sustainable diets for specific populations.

The role of financial efficiency in renewable energy demand: Evidence from OECD countries

This study searches the role of the financial system efficiency in renewable energy demand for the case of the 36 OECD countries. Numerous financial system proxies are used between 1990 and 2017. Results show that financial system proxies generally are poorly linked to the renewable energy demand of the OECD member states. Although the coefficient of the overall financial development proxy is positively significant for renewable energy demand, the coefficients of financial efficiency are insignificant. The present study finds significant effects of the overall financial markets and institutions on renewable energy demand; however, any vital link between financial system efficiency and renewable energy demand could not be obtained in the OECD countries. Policy implications regarding this major finding are provided in the current study.

China's climate and energy policy: at a turning point?

How have 30 years of development in energy and climate policies influenced long-term trends in China and what does this imply for future climate policies? To answer the question, this article examines three decades of energy and climate policies in China. By providing an overarching review, it contributes new and updated research on drivers behind long-term climate policies and whether China's long-term emissions trend can be broken by placing greater emphasis on innovation, technology and low-carbon development. Importantly, it analyses the most recent policy developments in China, such as the likely effects of China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality goal. We conclude that after the Paris Agreement, the biggest policy change has been technological innovation in the power and transport sector. China has prioritized measures, laws and policies for developing renewable energy, especially solar and wind. China has also embraced the 'green growth' approach for responding to the challenges of climate change. These efforts have yielded results, and China has emerged as a world leader in renewable energy. However, there is still a long way to go. The upcoming 14th five-year plan will be critical for accelerating the energy transition, including setting a cap on coal in the national energy-transition strategy.

Health professional's willingness to advocate for strengthening global commitments to the Paris climate agreement: Findings from a multi-nation survey

Health professionals have the potential to address the health threats posed by climate change in many ways. This study sought to understand the factors that influence health professionals' willingness to engage in climate advocacy. We hypothesized and tested a model with six antecedent factors predicting willingness to engage in advocacy for strengthening global commitments to the Paris Agreement. Using survey data from members of health professional associations in 12 nations (n = 3,977), we tested the hypothesized relationships with structural equation modeling. All of the hypothesized relationships were confirmed. Specifically, higher rates of perceived expert consensus about human-caused climate change predicted greater climate change belief certainty and belief in human causation. In turn, all three of these factors, including higher levels of perceived health harms from climate change, positively predicted affective involvement with the issue. Affective involvement positively predicted the feeling that health professionals have a responsibility to deal with climate change. Lastly, this sense that climate advocacy is a responsibility of health professionals strongly predicted willingness to advocate. As a unique study of predictors of health professionals' willingness to advocate for climate change, our findings provide unique insight into how an influential set of trusted voices might be activated to address what is arguably the world's most pressing public health threat. Limitations of the study and suggestions for future research are presented, and implications for message development are discussed.

Health system plan for implementation of Paris agreement on climate change (COP 21): a qualitative study in Iran

BACKGROUND

Ensuring public health is crucial in any policy debate on climate change. Paris Agreement on climate change is a global contract, through which countries have committed themselves to a public health treaty. The agreement has laid the foundation for mitigation and adaptation. This study was conducted to provide an evidence-based framework for policy-making in the health system of Iran in order to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on public health and to increase the adaptation of the health system as a result.

METHODS

This is a qualitative study. We first used Delphi method to extract the components of Paris Agreement on climate change that were related to the functions and policymaking of health system in Iran. Twenty-three experts in health and climate change were identified purposefully and through snowball sampling as participants in Delphi. Data collection instrument was a structured questionnaire. We used SPSS software version 25 for data analysis based on the descriptive indices including the mean, the percentage of consensus above 75%, and the Kendall coordination coefficient.

RESULTS

Seventy-nine components classified within nine categories were extracted. The most important examples of the implementation of Paris Agreement on climate change in the health system of Iran were: participation in the formulation of strategies for mitigation and adaptation, identifying vulnerable groups, assessing vulnerability, increasing the capacity of health services delivery during extreme events, using early warning systems, using new technologies to increase the adaptation, evaluation of interventions, financial support, increasing the number of researches, increasing the knowledge and skills of staff, and finally public awareness.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence-based policy-making is pivotal to develop effective programs to control the health effects of climate change. This research provided policy translation and customization of micro and macro provisions of Paris Agreement on climate change, in line with the political context of health system in Iran. Our finding will pave the ground, we envisage, for further steps towards capacity building and enhancement of resiliency of the health system, adaptation interventions, and evaluation, identification of barriers and facilitators for adaptation and decreasing the adverse health effects caused by the climate change, in Iran and perhaps beyond.

Regionalized Strategies for Food Loss and Waste Management in Spain under a Life Cycle Thinking Approach

Food loss and waste (FLW) has become a central concern in the social and political debate. Simultaneously, using FLW as a bioenergy source could significantly contribute to closing the carbon cycle by reintroducing energy into the food supply chain. This study aims to identify best strategies for FLW management in each of the 17 regions in Spain, through the application of a Life Cycle Assessment. To this end, an evaluation of the environmental performance over time between 2015 and 2040 of five different FLW management scenarios implemented in a framework of (i) compliance and (ii) non-compliance with the targets of the Paris Agreement was performed. Results revealed savings in the consumption of abiotic resources in those regions in which thermal treatment has a strong presence, although their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a scenario of compliance with climate change targets are higher. In contrast, scenarios that include anaerobic digestion and, to a lesser extent those applying aerobic composting, present lower impacts, including climate change, suggesting improvements of 20-60% in non-compliance and 20-80% in compliance with Paris Agreement targets, compared to the current scenarios.

Enabling new mindsets and transformative skills for negotiating and activating climate action: Lessons from UNFCCC conferences of the parties

Technological and policy solutions for transitioning to a fossil-free society exist, many countries could afford the transition, and rational arguments for rapid climate action abound. Yet effective action is still lacking. Dominant policy approaches have failed to generate action at anywhere near the rate, scale or depth needed to avoid potentially catastrophic futures. This is despite 30 years of climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and wide-ranging actions at national, transnational and sub-national levels. Practitioners and scholars are, thus, increasingly arguing that also the root causes of the problem must be addressed - the mindset (or paradigm) out of which the climate emergency has arisen. Against this background, we investigate decision-makers' views of the need for a different mindset and inner qualities that can support negotiating and activating climate action, along with factors that could enable such a mindset shift. Data were collected during participatory workshops run at the 25th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP25) in 2019, and comprise surveys, as well as social media communication and semi-structured interviews with COP attendees. Our results underline vast agreement among participants regarding the need for a mindset shift that can support new ways of communication and collaboration, based on more relational modes of knowing, being and acting. They also suggest the emergence of such a mindset shift across sectors and contexts, but not yet at the collective and systems levels. Finally, they highlight the importance of transformative skills and the need for experimental, safe spaces. The latter are seen as a visible manifestation and enabler that can support agency for change through shared self-reflection, experience and practice. We present a transformative skills framework, and conclude with further research needs and policy recommendations.

Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.

Digital transformation and carbon intensity reduction in transportation industry: Empirical evidence from a global perspective

Digital transformation has become an inevitable trend in industrial development, but research on its environmental benefits has not been conducted in-depth. This paper focuses on the impact and mechanisms of the digital transformation of the transportation industry on its carbon intensity. Empirical tests are conducted based on the panel data of 43 economies from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the digital transformation of the transportation industry reduces its carbon intensity, but only the digital transformation that relies on domestic digital sources is significant. Second, technological progress, upgrading the industry's internal structure and improving energy consumption are the main channels through which the digital transformation of the transportation industry reduces its carbon intensity. Third, in terms of subdividing industries, the digital transformation of basic transportation has a more significant effect on reducing carbon intensity. For segmentation digitization, the carbon intensity reduction from digital infrastructure is more significant. This paper serves as a reference for countries to formulate development policies for the transportation industry and implement the Paris Agreement.

A better understanding of the role of new energy and green finance to help achieve carbon neutrality goals, with special reference to China

Carbon neutrality is an important policy in the current global response to climate change and has been widely recognized by various industries. In the process of promoting carbon neutrality, new energy plays a pivotal role. In this study, the definition and connotation of new energy and its role and specific operation in the energy transition of carbon neutrality are firstly explained. Promoting new energy development requires significant green and low-carbon investments. Taking China as an example, this paper analyzes the opportunities brought by the carbon neutral process to the field of green finance and analyzes the main features and development trends of green finance in China at present. Then this paper proposes policy recommendations to strengthen the development of green finance in China in terms of improving the green financial policy system, enhancing the supply capacity of green financial services, and optimizing the supporting environment for green financial development. Finally, this paper analyzes the measures and experiences of the United States in promoting low-carbon development and proposes countermeasures for China's low-carbon development on the basis of the five major relationships that need attention in China's carbon-neutral process. That is, strengthen the top-level design and improve the regulatory policy system; optimize the energy structure and increase the proportion of clean energy; optimize the industrial structure and reduce energy consumption in key industries; build a complete low-carbon technology system and promote low-carbon technology research and development and demonstration applications, and encourage local conditions to explore low-carbon development paths. The development of green finance can contribute to the advancement of new energy technologies, thus contributing to the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.

Direct measurement forest carbon protocol: a commercial system-of-systems to incentivize forest restoration and management

Forest carbon sequestration offsets are methodologically uncertain, comprise a minor component of carbon markets and do not effectively slow deforestation. The objective of this study is to describe a commercial scale in situ measurement approach for determination of net forest carbon sequestration projects, the Direct Measurement Forest Carbon Protocol™, to address forest carbon market uncertainties. In contrast to protocols that rely on limited forest mensuration, growth simulation and exclusion of CO₂ data, the Direct Measurement Forest Carbon Protocol™ is based on standardized methods for direct determination of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ employing eddy covariance, a meteorological approach integrating forest carbon fluxes. NEE is used here as the basis for quantifying the first of its kind carbon financial products. The DMFCP differentiates physical, project and financial carbon within a System-of-Systems™ (SoS) network architecture. SoS sensor nodes, the Global Monitoring Platform™ (GMP), housing analyzers for CO₂ isotopologues (e.g., ¹²CO_2, ¹³CO₂, ¹⁴CO₂) and greenhouse gases are deployed across the project landscape. The SoS standardizes and automates GMP measurement, uncertainty and reporting functions creating diverse forest carbon portfolios while reducing cost and investment risk in alignment with modern portfolio theory. To illustrate SoS field deployment and operation, published annual NEE data for a tropical (Ankasa Park, Ghana, Africa) and a deciduous forest (Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA, USA) are used to forecast carbon revenue. Carbon pricing scenarios are combined with historical in situ NEE annual time-series to extrapolate pre-tax revenue for each project applied to 100,000 acres (40,469 hectares) of surrounding land. Based on carbon pricing of $5 to $36 per ton CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂eq) and observed NEE sequestration rates of 0.48 to 15.60 tCO₂eq acre^-1 yr^-1, pre-tax cash flows ranging from $230,000 to $16,380,000 across project time-series are calculated, up to 5×  revenue for contemporary voluntary offsets, demonstrating new economic incentives to reverse deforestation. The SoS concept of operation and architecture, with engineering development, can be extended to diverse gas species across terrestrial, aquatic and oceanic ecosystems, harmonizing voluntary and compliance market products worldwide to assist in the management of global warming. The Direct Measurement Forest Carbon Protocol reduces risk of invalidation intrinsic to estimation-based protocols such as the Climate Action Reserve and the Clean Development Mechanism that do not observe molecular CO₂ to calibrate financial products. Multinational policy applications such as the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, constrained by Kyoto Protocol era processes, will benefit from NEE measurement avoiding unsupported claims of emission reduction, fraud, and forest conservation policy failure.

Risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways

Temperature overshoot pathways entail exceeding a specified global warming level (e.g. 1.5°C or 2°C) followed by a decline in warming, achieved through anthropogenically enhanced CO2 removal from the atmosphere. However, risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways are poorly described. Here, we explore biodiversity risks from overshoot by synthesizing existing knowledge and quantifying the dynamics of exposure and de-exposure to potentially dangerous temperatures for more than 30 000 species for a 2°C overshoot scenario. Our results suggest that climate risk to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways will arrive suddenly, but decrease only gradually. Peak exposure for biodiversity occurs around the same time as peak global warming, but the rate of de-exposure lags behind the temperature decline. While the global overshoot period lasts around 60 years, the duration of elevated exposure of marine and terrestrial biodiversity is substantially longer (around 100 and 130 years, respectively), with some ecological communities never returning to pre-overshoot exposure levels. Key biodiversity impacts may be irreversible and reliance on widespread CO2 removal to reduce warming poses additional risks to biodiversity through altered land use. Avoiding any temperature overshoot must be a priority for reducing biodiversity risks from climate change, followed by limiting the magnitude and duration of any overshoot. More integrated models that include direct and indirect impacts from overshoot are needed to inform policy. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

COVID-19 and the Paris Agreement target: A CGE analysis of alternative economic recovery scenarios for India

In this paper the Covid-19 pandemic has been analysed from sustainability and climate change perspectives with the help of a recursive dynamic CGE model for India. The Covid-19 could have major long term impacts on GDP, household income, inequality, CO₂ emissions, and carbon prices. Significant slowdown in labour intensive informal sectors such as construction and services, as well as in energy intensive and capital goods sectors, leads to adverse impacts on household income and inequality. Our analysis further suggests that climate policy consistent with the Paris Agreement target can complement the economic recovery process. Specifically, recycling of carbon tax revenues to investments could stimulate growth and employment, reduce inequality, and reduce carbon emissions, compared to a scenario without climate policy. Therefore, the need of the hour is to formulate and implement climate friendly recovery strategies.

How likely is Brazil to achieve its NDC commitments in the energy sector? A review on Brazilian low-carbon energy perspectives

This paper offers perspectives on the development of low-carbon energy technology in Brazil, pinpointing changes that have occurred since our former publication in 2011. It takes a fresh approach in terms of how likely Brazil will achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions Commitments in the energy sector. Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish their pledged NDC and contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Based on official reports and databases of energy development projections in Brazil and the socioeconomic context, we discuss what can be expected for the future of the Brazilian energy sector, the probability of implementing selected technologies, and the prospects of reaching the NDC targets for 2025 and 2030. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the current stage of development of these technologies, main directions, and bottlenecks in Brazil. Analyses have shown that the Brazilian renewable matrix tends to remain significant, driven by the development of solar and mostly small hydroelectric power sources, as well as different types of biomass. In addition, the system will include the replacement of thermoelectric plants powered by diesel and fuel oil by natural gas plants. The prospects for Brazil's official energy plan for 2027 are aligned with the reference technology scenario, which represents the business as usual scenario. Despite this, low-carbon technologies could be implemented far beyond the NDC's goals, given the abundance of renewable natural resources in the country.

Planetary good governance after the Paris Agreement: The case for a global greenhouse gas tax

The Paris Agreement and the subsequent IPCC Global Warming of 1.5 °C report signal a need for greater urgency in achieving carbon emissions reductions. In this paper we make a two stage argument for greater use of carbon taxes and for a global approach to this. First, we argue that current modelling tends to lead to a "facts in waiting" approach to technology, which takes insufficient account of uncertainty. Rather than look to the future, carbon taxes that facilitate social redesign are something we have control over now. Second, we argue that the "trade" in "cap and trade" has been ineffective and carbon trading has served mainly as a distraction. Carbon taxes provide a simpler more flexible and pervasive alternative. We conclude with brief discussion of global context.

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on Eucalyptus plantations in South America

Even if the maximum global warming thresholds established by the Paris Agreement (1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels) are not exceeded, part of the climate system impacts resulting from this warming will be unavoidable. Forestry industries may be especially vulnerable, due to water shortages and the inability of growing certain forest species. An important part of the South American economy depends on the forestry sector (between 2 to ~7% of the Gross Domestic Product), mainly products derived from Eucalyptus, and so evaluating water availability considering the temperature thresholds established by the Paris Agreement will be fundamental. This study analyzed increased global average temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the impacts on water availability, using the Climatic Water Balance (CWB), and also studied possible impacts on Eucalyptus plantations in South America. Monthly temperature and precipitation data obtained from a set of simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used, in four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The CWB was calculated for three periods: i) the pre-industrial period (1861-1890), ii) the present period (1975-2005), and iii) the period when temperature projections are expected to reach global average increases of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Due to changes in the CWB, with increases in actual evapotranspiration, water deficits, and a reduced water surplus, Eucalyptus plantations will be negatively affected and economically unfeasible for about 49.2% to 56.7% of all of South America, including a large part of the Amazon region, northern South America, midwestern and northeastern Brazil, western portions of Bolivia, Paraguay, central/northern Argentina, and northern Chile. Only some parts of South America, like the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, Uruguay, southern Argentina and Chile, Andes Mountain Range, and northwestern South America, will not suffer water deficits, and Eucalyptus plantations will be less impacted in these regions. Large parts of South America will suffer from changes in water availability. The future of the forestry industry, and especially Eucalyptus plantations in these regions, will depend on urgent and effective adaptation measures.

On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2

The Global Stocktake (GST), implemented by the Paris Agreement, requires rapid developments in the capabilities to quantify annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals consistently from the global to the national scale and improvements to national GHG inventories. In particular, new capabilities are needed for accurate attribution of sources and sinks and their trends to natural and anthropogenic processes. On the one hand, this is still a major challenge as national GHG inventories follow globally harmonized methodologies based on the guidelines established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but these can be implemented differently for individual countries. Moreover, in many countries the capability to systematically produce detailed and annually updated GHG inventories is still lacking. On the other hand, spatially-explicit datasets quantifying sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Earth Observations (EO) are still limited by many sources of uncertainty. While national GHG inventories follow diverse methodologies depending on the availability of activity data in the different countries, the proposed comparison with EO-based estimates can help improve our understanding of the comparability of the estimates published by the different countries. Indeed, EO networks and satellite platforms have seen a massive expansion in the past decade, now covering a wide range of essential climate variables and offering high potential to improve the quantification of global and regional GHG budgets and advance process understanding. Yet, there is no EO data that quantifies greenhouse gas fluxes directly, rather there are observations of variables or proxies that can be transformed into fluxes using models. Here, we report results and lessons from the ESA-CCI RECCAP2 project, whose goal was to engage with National Inventory Agencies to improve understanding about the methods used by each community to estimate sources and sinks of GHGs and to evaluate the potential for satellite and in-situ EO to improve national GHG estimates. Based on this dialogue and recent studies, we discuss the potential of EO approaches to provide estimates of GHG budgets that can be compared with those of national GHG inventories. We outline a roadmap for implementation of an EO carbon-monitoring program that can contribute to the Paris Agreement.

Global tourism, climate change and energy sustainability: assessing carbon reduction mitigating measures from the aviation industry

As many business activities-especially those associated with the energy-intensive industries-continue to be major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and hence significantly contributing to global warming, there is a perceived need to identify ways to make business activities eventually carbon neutral. This paper explores the implications of a changing climate for the global tourism business and its intertwining global aviation industry that operates in a self-regulatory environment. Adopting a bibliometric analysis of the literature in the domain of global tourism and climate change (772 articles), the paper reveals the underlying sustainability issues that entail unsustainable energy consumption. The aviation industry as a significant source of carbon emission within the sector is then examined by analyzing the top 20 largest commercial airlines in the world with respect to its ongoing mitigating measures in meeting the Paris Agreement targets. While self-regulatory initiatives are taken to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) as alternative fuel production and consumption for drastically reducing carbon emission, voluntary alignment and commitment to long-term targets remain inconsistent. A concerted strategic approach to building up complementary sustainable infrastructures among the global network of airports based in various international tourist destination cities to enable a measurable reduction in carbon emission is necessary to achieve a transformational adaptation of a business sector that is of essence to the recovery of the global economy while attempting to tackle climate change in a post-COVID-19 era.

Empty promises: Some requirements for a successful implementation of decarbonisation strategies in developing countries

Decarbonisation strategies are crucial for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change and achieving sustainable development. However, the successful implementation of these strategies in developing countries remains a significant challenge due to resource constraints, competing development priorities, and institutional barriers. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of decarbonisation efforts and impacts through an extensive review of existing research, reports, and case studies. The research includes a detailed examination of decarbonisation initiatives, complemented by case studies from seven industrialised (USA, EU27, Germany, Italy, France, Finland, and Australia) and six developing countries (China, Brazil, South Africa, India, Mexico, and Kenya). These case studies showcase practical efforts and illustrate current trends in decarbonisation. The findings underscore the importance of political will, financial resources, technological capacity, and social acceptance as critical requirements for the successful implementation of decarbonisation strategies in developing countries. The paper emphasises the need for international cooperation, capacity-building, and aligning decarbonisation goals with broader socio-economic objectives to ensure these strategies contribute meaningfully to sustainable development.