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Fendrich AN, Matthews F, Van Eynde E, Carozzi M, Li Z, d'Andrimont R, Lugato E, Martin P, Ciais P, Panagos P. From regional to parcel scale: A high-resolution map of cover crops across Europe combining satellite data with statistical surveys. Sci Total Environ 2023; 873:162300. [PMID: 36828062 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Revised: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The reformed Common Agricultural Policy of 2023-2027 aims to promote a more sustainable and fair agricultural system in the European Union. Among the proposed measures, the incentivized adoption of cover crops to cover the soil during winter provides numerous benefits such as improved soil structure and reduced nutrient leaching and erosion. Despite this recognized importance, the availability of spatial data on cover crops is scarce. The increasing availability of field parcel declarations in the European Union has not yet filled this data gap due to its insufficient information content, limited public availability and a lack of standardization at continental scale. At present, the best information available is regionally aggregated survey data, which although indicative, hinders the development of spatially accurate studies. In this work, we propose a statistical model relating Sentinel-1 data to the existence of cover crops at the 100-m spatial resolution over the entirety of the European Union and United Kingdom and estimate its parameters using the spatially aggregated survey data. To validate the method in a spatially-explicit way, predictions were compared against farmers' registered declarations in France, where the adoption of cover crops is widespread. The results indicate a good agreement between predictions and parcel-level data. When interpreted as a binary classifier, the model yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.74 for the whole country. When the country was divided into five regions for the evaluation of regional biases, the AUC values were 0.77, 0.75, 0.74, 0.70, and 0.65 for the North, Center, West, East, and South regions respectively. Despite limitations such as the lack of data for validation outside France, and the non-standardized nomenclature for cover crops among Member States, this work constitutes the first effort to obtain a relevant cover crop map at a European scale for researchers and practitioners.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra 21027, Italy; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91190, France; Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR SAD-APT, 91120, Palaiseau, France.
| | - Francis Matthews
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra 21027, Italy; KU Leuven, Unit of Geography and Tourism, Celestijnenlaan 200e, Leuven 3001, Belgium
| | - Elise Van Eynde
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra 21027, Italy
| | - Marco Carozzi
- Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR SAD-APT, 91120, Palaiseau, France
| | - Zheyuan Li
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China; Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, University Dr W, 8888, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | | | - Emanuele Lugato
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra 21027, Italy
| | - Philippe Martin
- Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR SAD-APT, 91120, Palaiseau, France
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91190, France
| | - Panos Panagos
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra 21027, Italy
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Pepin KM, Brown VR, Yang A, Beasley JC, Boughton R, VerCauteren KC, Miller RS, Bevins SN. Optimizing response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs. Transbound Emerg Dis 2022; 69:e3111-e3127. [PMID: 35881004 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 07/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the U.S., invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on size of control areas required to rapidly eliminate ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology are needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially-explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in southeastern U.S. We simulated ASFv spread and determined optimal response area (reported as radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv is detected relative to true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly), and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within one year. Results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show wild pig movement is a better predictor of optimal response area than numbers of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kim M Pepin
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 4101 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, CO, 80526
| | - Vienna R Brown
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services, Wildlife Services, National Feral Swine Damage Management Program, Fort Collins, CO
| | - Anni Yang
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 4101 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, CO, 80526.,Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, US
| | - James C Beasley
- Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, PO Drawer E, Aiken, South Carolina, 29802, US
| | - Raoul Boughton
- Archbold Biological Station's Buck Island Ranch, 300 Buck Island Ranch Road, Lake Placid, FL, 33852, US
| | - Kurt C VerCauteren
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 4101 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, CO, 80526
| | - Ryan S Miller
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 2150 Center Ave., Fort Collins, CO, 80526
| | - Sarah N Bevins
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 4101 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, CO, 80526
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Boyd R, Walker N, Hyder K, Thorpe R, Roy S, Sibly R. SEASIM-NEAM: A Spatially-Explicit Agent-based SIMulator of North East Atlantic Mackerel population dynamics. MethodsX 2020; 7:101044. [PMID: 32963971 PMCID: PMC7490848 DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2020.101044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/24/2020] [Indexed: 10/26/2022] Open
Abstract
In 2018 we published a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) that uses satellite-derived maps of food availability and temperature to predict Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus, NEAM) population dynamics. Since then, to address various ecological questions, we have extended the IBM to include additional processes and data. Throughout its development, technical documents have been provided in the form of e.g. supplementary information to published articles. However, we acknowledge that it would be difficult for potential users to collate information from separate supplementary documents and gain a full understanding of the current state of the IBM. Here, we provide a full technical specification of the latest version of our IBM. The technical specification is provided in the standard ODD (Overview, Design concepts and Details) format, and supplemented by a TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaludation) document. For the first time, we give our model the acronym SEASIM-NEAM: a Spatially-Explicit Agent-based SIMulator of North East Atlantic Mackerel population dynamics. This article supersedes previous documentation. Going forward we hope that this article will stimulate development of similar models.•This article collates improvements that have been made to SEASIM-NEAM over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robin Boyd
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
| | - Nicola Walker
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Science, Lowestoft, United Kingdom
| | - Kieran Hyder
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Science, Lowestoft, United Kingdom.,School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norfolk, United Kingdom
| | - Robert Thorpe
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Science, Lowestoft, United Kingdom
| | - Shovonlal Roy
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
| | - Richard Sibly
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
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Wang HH, Teel PD, Grant WE, Soltero F, Urdaz J, Ramírez AEP, Miller RJ, Pérez de León AA. Simulation tools for assessment of tick suppression treatments of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus on non-lactating dairy cattle in Puerto Rico. Parasit Vectors 2019; 12:185. [PMID: 31029149 PMCID: PMC6487003 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3443-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2018] [Accepted: 04/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The southern cattle fever tick (SCFT), Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, remains endemic in Puerto Rico. Systematic treatment programmes greatly reduced and even eradicated temporarily this tick from the island. However, a systemic treatment programme that includes integrated management practices for livestock against SCFT remains to be established in the island. We describe a spatially-explicit, individual-based model that simulates climate-livestock-SCFT-landscape interactions. This model was developed as an investigative tool to aid in a research project on integrated management of the SCFT that took place in Puerto Rico between 2014 and 2017. We used the model to assess the efficacy of tick suppression and probability of tick elimination when applying safer acaricides at 3-week intervals to different proportions of a herd of non-lactating dairy cattle. RESULTS Probabilities of eliminating host-seeking larvae from the simulated system decreased from ≈ 1 to ≈ 0 as the percentage of cattle treated decreased from 65 to 45, with elimination probabilities ≈ 1 at higher treatment percentages and ≈ 0 at lower treatment percentages. For treatment percentages between 65% and 45%, a more rapid decline in elimination probabilities was predicted by the version of the model that produced higher densities of host-seeking larvae. Number of weeks after the first acaricide application to elimination of host-seeking larvae was variable among replicate simulations within treatment percentages, with within-treatment variation increasing markedly at treatment percentages ≤ 65. Number of weeks after first application to elimination generally varied between 30 and 40 weeks for those treatment percentages with elimination probabilities ≈ 1. CONCLUSIONS Explicit simulation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of off-host (host-seeking) larvae in response to control methods should be an essential element of research that involves the evaluation of integrated SCFT management programmes. This approach could provide the basis to evaluate novel control technologies and to develop protocols for their cost-effective use with other treatment methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hsiao-Hsuan Wang
- Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.
| | - Pete D Teel
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M AgriLife Research, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - William E Grant
- Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Fred Soltero
- United States Department of Agriculture-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, 654 Munoz Rivera Ave. Plaza Bldg. Suite 700, San Juan, 00918, Puerto Rico
| | - José Urdaz
- United States Department of Agriculture-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, 2150 Centre Ave. Bldg. B, MS-3E13, Ft. Collins, CO, 80526, USA
| | - Alejandro E Pérez Ramírez
- Veterinary Services and Animal Health, Puerto Rico Department of Agriculture, P.O. Box 10163, San Juan, 00908-1163, Puerto Rico
| | - Robert J Miller
- Cattle Fever Tick Research Laboratory, United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Edinburg, TX, 78541, USA
| | - Adalberto A Pérez de León
- Knipling-Bushland U.S. Livestock Insects Research Laboratory, and Veterinary Pest Genomics Center, United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Kerrville, TX, 78028, USA
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