Predictors of index admission mortality and morbidity in contemporary esophageal atresia patients

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The Spitz classification for esophageal atresia with/without tracheoesophageal fistula (EA/TEF) predicts mortality. This study evaluates the contemporary relevance of the Spitz classification and investigates predictors of morbidity.

METHODS

EA/TEF patients born between 1995 and 2018 at two centers were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical variables including sex, prenatal diagnosis, birth weight, prematurity, major congenital heart disease (MCHD), and pre-operative mechanical ventilation (POMV) were collected. Index admission composite morbidity was considered positive if: length-of-stay >90th percentile (139 days), ventilation days >90th percentile (24 days), and/or gastrostomy was used for long-term feeding. Multivariable regression determined predictors of index admission mortality and composite morbidity. A composite morbidity predictive algorithm was created. ROC curves evaluated model discrimination.

RESULTS

Of 253 patients, 13 (5.1%) experienced index admission mortality. Of the patients not suffering mortality, 74 (31.6%) experienced composite morbidity. Only MCHD predicted mortality (p = 0.001); birth weight did not (p = 0.173). There was no difference between the Spitz classification and MCHD alone in predicting mortality risk (p = 0.198); both demonstrated very good discrimination. Prenatal diagnosis, POMV, prematurity, and male sex predicted composite morbidity risk (p < 0.001; p = 0.008; p = 0.009; p = 0.05). An algorithm incorporating these predictors demonstrated good discrimination (AUC = 0.784; 95% CI: 0.724, 0.844).

CONCLUSIONS

The Spitz classification maintains contemporary relevance for mortality risk, though birth weight can be de-emphasized. A new morbidity risk algorithm is proposed for early postnatal counseling.

TYPE OF STUDY

Prognosis study.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level IV.

Esophageal atresia and tracheoesophageal fistula associated with tetralogy of Fallot: a review of mortality

INTRODUCTION

Oesophageal atresia ± tracheoesophageal fistula (EA/TEF) associated with congenital heart disease (CHD) carries a worse prognosis than EA/TEF alone. Though the Spitz classification takes major CHD into account, there are no data regarding survival with the specific combination of EA/TEF and Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). With advances in postnatal care, we hypothesised that, survival is improving in these complex patients. This study reports morbidity and mortality outcomes of newborns with oesophageal atresia and TOF cardiac malformations METHODS: All patients with EA/TEF and TOF treated at Alder Hey Children's Hospital between the years 2000-2020, were identified. Data sets regarding gestation, birth weight, associated anomalies, operative intervention, morbidity, and mortality were analysed.

RESULTS

Of a total of 350, EA/TEF patients 9 (2.6%) cases had EA/TEF associated with TOF (M:F 4:5). The median gestational age was 35/40 (range 28-41 weeks) with a median birth weight of 1790 g (range 1060-3350 g). Overall survival was 56% (5/9 cases) and all survivors remain under follow up (range 37-4458 days). Surgical strategies for managing EA/TEF with Fallot's tetralogy included 6/9 primary repairs and 3/9 cases with TEF ligation only (+ gastrostomy ± oesophagostomy).

CONCLUSIONS

This study reports outcome data from one of the largest series of EA TEF patients with Fallot's tetralogy. Whilst outcomes may be challenging for this unique patient cohort, survival metrics provide important prognostic information that can be widely shared with health care teams and parents.